RJ Bell's Dream Preview - TopPodcast.com

Latest Episodes:

Dream Podcast - NFL Scoring Projections, YPP Power Rankings, Rest & CLV !! Jul 24, 2025

Show notes

Scott Seidenberg, Steve Fezzik and Mackenzie Rivers talk NFL. The guys get you ready for the preseason and much more.

🎯 Offensive Rankings: Buffalo leads projected scoring at 26.9 PPG, Cleveland last at 19.1 PPG.

📊 Schedule Difficulty: Browns, Giants, Eagles, Lions, Chiefs face the toughest opposing offenses, while 49ers, Patriots, Titans, Bills, and Bucs have the softest.

📈 YPP Insights: Chiefs, Steelers, Rams posted negative YPP differentials despite double-digit wins — a sign of potential regression.

🔍 Undervalued Teams: Packers (+1.0 YPP) and Titans (-0.2 YPP) are undervalued versus public perception.

📉 Rest Disadvantage Bets: Since 2021, teams with rest disadvantages are 200-184-6 ATS, outperforming expectations.

⏳ Short Week Thursday Games: Road teams on 3-day rest are just 6-11 ATS (2023) — major fade spots.

💡 Fezzik’s Picks:

Packers -1.5 vs. Commanders (Week 2).
Steelers -1.5 vs. Seahawks (Week 2).

🏈 College Football Playoff: Likely 3–4 Big Ten teams; Fezzik/Scott debate over/under 3.5.

🔒 College Bet: Ohio State under 10.5 wins (load management and tough schedule).

🏙 Vegas Decline: Cited high resort fees, F1 construction issues, and nationalized sports betting reducing Vegas’ exclusivity.

Market-Based Offensive Rankings (0:04–10:25): Scott explains creating offensive power rankings by dividing teams’ projected total points by 17 games. Buffalo (26.9 PPG), Ravens (26.6), Bengals (26.2) top the list, with Cleveland (19.1) at the bottom.
Strength of Schedule Analysis (11:19–15:04): Using these offensive power ratings, they rank team schedules. Cleveland, Giants, Eagles, Lions, Chiefs face the toughest, while 49ers, Patriots, Titans, Bills, Bucs face the easiest.
Fantasy Implications (12:01–13:50): Fezzik recommends using these rankings for drafting defenses, targeting teams playing the lowest-scoring projected opponents.
Fezzik’s YPP Takeaways (25:12–28:08): He notes that Chiefs, Rams, Steelers had negative YPP differentials despite strong records — suggesting overperformance in close games.
Regression Forecasting (28:09–30:14): Mackenzie highlights that Kansas City outperformed win-share projections by 2.5 games, historically leading to underperforming the next year.
Rest Disadvantage Insights (36:15–42:12): Scott reveals that teams with rest disadvantages are covering spreads, likely due to market over-adjustment.
Thursday Short Week Data (43:21–44:13): Road teams playing on 3 days rest on Thursday are 6-11 ATS, reinforcing the fade strategy.
Best Bets Shared (45:12–48:46): Fezzik recommends Packers -1.5 vs. Commanders and Steelers -1.5 vs. Seahawks, citing travel and rest factors.
College Football Outlook (50:01–56:53): They debate Big Ten playoff representation (over/under 3.5 teams) and Scott gives a best bet: Ohio State under 10.5 wins.
Vegas Tourism Decline (1:01:29–1:11:58): The group attributes lower occupancy and visitation rates to construction (F1), rising fees, and expanded sports betting access nationwide.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

3M Open Picks and Predictions Jul 23, 2025

Show notes

Will Doctor gives you the sharpest card for the 3M Open.
-Discussing top 8 names on odds board
-1 matchup
-2 t10's
-3 outrights (35/1, 70/1, 100/1)
-Sleeper (top 40), 2 lineups
-Scoring, best bet

⛳ Scheffler’s dominance: Claimed his 4th major, now 4-for-4 in closing with a 54-hole lead.

📈 Putting breakthrough: Gained +2 strokes on the field, his second-best putting performance ever in a major.

🏆 FedExCup outlook: Scheffler leads the standings with playoffs starting in three weeks at TPC Southwind.

🎯 Rory’s inconsistency: T7 finish, negative driving accuracy for the third straight event despite solid putting.

💪 Bryson’s comeback: From 78 in round 1 to a 10th-place finish, crushing Scheffler fade bets.

📉 Failed futures: Kim (89th FedEx rank), Theegala (140th), Thompson (72nd) all disappointing in majors.

📊 Henley & Fitzpatrick: Delivered top-10 placements, boosting the week’s betting card.

🛠 TPC Twin Cities profile: Wide, water-laden course requiring long-iron precision and hot putting.

🔥 Betting favorites: Will passes on Sam Burns (18-1), Maverick McNeely (20-1), Wyndham Clark (25-1) due to value concerns.

🔮 Predicted winning score: -19 under soft, rain-aided conditions.

Scheffler’s win (0:35–4:20): Scottie Scheffler triumphed at Royal Portrush with back-to-back positive putting rounds on Thursday and Friday, capped by a final round 68 watched by 4 million viewers.

Career implications (4:20–6:10): At 29 years old, Scheffler now sits tied 22nd in all-time majors (4 total), aiming for a career Grand Slam with only the U.S. Open missing.

Conditions & performance context (6:10–8:05): Favorable weather with minimal wind/rain made Portrush play softer, aiding low scoring. Bryson DeChambeau’s strong final three rounds highlighted how score-friendly conditions were.

Rory & MacIntyre analysis (8:05–10:40): Rory missed a “sub-65” round, while Robert MacIntyre had a statistically positive week except for 3rd-round irons, both finishing T7 (-10).
Justin Thomas struggles (10:40–12:20): Despite excellent iron play & short game, JT lost a full stroke off the tee, continuing his season-long accuracy woes, finishing T34 (-3).
Bryson fade failure (13:20–15:50): After a 78 in round one, DeChambeau rebounded with 65-68-64, finishing T10, spoiling fade bets.
Betting recap (16:00–20:40): Russell Henley cashed a +350 top-10, Matthew Fitzpatrick delivered +333 top-10, while sleeper Christopher Reeding missed top-20 by 2 shots.
Futures review (21:00–25:00): Futures on Tom Kim, Sahith Theegala, and Davis Thompson were failures, collectively costing 3 units.
3M Open preview (26:00–35:40): Course needs long iron ball-strikers (e.g., Finau, Champ), with Will predicting -19 as the winning score under wet but playable conditions.
Best bets & lineups (35:40–41:18): Key wagers include Tony Finau & Cam Champ for top-10s, with outright bets on Michael Thorbjornsen (35-1), Andrew Putnam (70-1), and Austin Eckroat (100-1).

For more on the world of golf, follow Doc on X @drmedia59

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

MLB Tuesday Preview + Best Bets !! Jul 22, 2025

Show notes

Munaf Manji and Griffin Warner break down MLB betting for Tuesday.

⚾ Umpiring Chaos: Griffin and Munaf detail egregious officiating, including Juan Soto’s walk on miscalled pitches and Felix Bautista’s bad call with bases loaded.

📉 Casey Mize's Decline: Mize allowed 6 ER in 3 IP vs. Mariners pre-ASG and has a 4.93 bullpen ERA since June—down from 3.31.

🏠 Mitch Keller Home Split: Despite a 3.48 ERA over 16 starts, he's just 3–10 due to lack of run support at home.

🔥 Brandon Young Struggles: Orioles have lost 5 straight starts by Young, who holds a 7.52 ERA and 7 ER allowed in his last start.

🔄 Chase Burns Inconsistency: Impressive vs. Yankees (5 Ks), but bombed at Fenway (5 ER in ⅓ IP); rebounded with 10.2 IP, 3 ER in July.

📊 Christopher Sanchez Surge: 55.1 IP in June-July, only 10 ER; hasn’t allowed more than 1 ER in any July start.

💥 Brewers' Rise: Milwaukee tied NL Central lead, won 10 straight. Mizorowski: 4–1, 0.90 ERA, 11.6 K/9, dominated Dodgers with 12 Ks.

🏗️ Astros Betting Edge: Despite injuries, Framber Valdez remains consistent. Eduardo Rodriguez 1–7 lifetime vs. HOU, 7.51 ERA.

🚑 Dodgers Injury Watch: Max Muncy out, Yamamoto’s form fluctuates—bounced back with 7 IP shutout vs. Giants after early Brewers exit.

🎯 Twins/Dodgers Over or RL Look: Simeon Woods Richardson may keep it close; Dodgers miss final AB as home team—potential run line value.

Umpire Performance (0:49–3:47): Griffin slams ump Ron Culpa for miscalls, notably in Juan Soto’s walk and Orioles’ loss. They advocate for tech-enhanced strike zones used in spring training.
Tigers vs. Pirates Preview (4:52–8:55): Mize under scrutiny post-6 ER outing; Keller decent stats but lacks offensive support. Tigers bullpen ERA worsened (3.31 to 4.93) since June.
Guardians vs. Orioles (8:56–12:26): Brandon Young's poor road starts (7.52 ERA, 7 BBs) continue; Guardians’ Cantillo returns from minors aiming to stretch out starts.
Nationals vs. Reds (12:26–16:11): Nationals fading post-GM firing. Chase Burns shows improvement after rocky debut; Reds offense surging.
Red Sox vs. Phillies (16:12–20:19): Sanchez has allowed 10 ER over 55.1 IP since June. Phillies signed David Robertson, exposing bullpen fragility despite strong starting pitching.
Yankees vs. Blue Jays (20:19–24:28): Jays swept Yanks earlier in Toronto. Scherzer beat them on June 30 (5 IP, 2 ER, 7 Ks). Jays offense peaking at critical time.
Angels vs. Mets (24:30–28:18): Montas (5.03 ERA) unreliable; Hendricks “crafty” but volatile. Mets bullpen struggling; run line on Angels offers better value than ML.
Giants vs. Braves (30:35–34:21): Davis Daniel's limited MLB action questioned; Braves are rare home dogs due to lackluster offense. Griffin leans over 9.5 total.
Cardinals vs. Rockies (34:48–39:01): Blaylock’s Coors Field ERA inflated by 12 ER game. Rockies viable for team total overs. Fetty has lost 4 straight starts.
Astros vs. Diamondbacks (39:02–44:05): Framber remains reliable; D-Backs’ bullpen in disarray with multiple closers injured. Rodriguez struggles vs. HOU—Astros best bet as short favorite.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

The Inside Pitch w/Josh Towers: Ep 16 Jul 21, 2025

Show notes

Former MLB Pitcher Josh Towers and Scott Seidenberg take a look at teams that are buyers or sellers and players that could be dealt as we inch closer to the trade deadline.

Scott Seidenberg and Josh Towers began the podcast by highlighting the proximity of the MLB trade deadline on July 31st and exploring player perspectives on potential trades (0:02-0:54). Josh Towers shared insights about clubhouse attitudes, noting that players on borderline teams usually do not focus too heavily on rumors unless they perceive their team as a genuine contender (0:54-2:22).

Scott specifically referenced Zach Allen's scenario, discussing extra motivation players might feel to perform exceptionally well, either as a farewell to their home fans or to appeal to potential acquiring teams. Towers concurred, emphasizing how recent performances heavily influence trade interest (2:23-4:26).

For players on losing teams, Towers explained they often refrain from openly expressing dissatisfaction but admitted they privately may urge agents to facilitate a trade, highlighting their focus remains primarily on what they can control—their performance (4:27-5:58).

They then discussed prominent potential free agents, notably Kyle Tucker, Pete Alonzo, Ranger Suarez, and Framber Valdez. Towers indicated that Tucker could command a significant contract, speculating around $500 million due to the limited number of big names available (6:05-9:16).

Scott and Josh shifted their focus to the Philadelphia Phillies, anticipating aggressive trade deadline actions given the impending free agency of key players like Kyle Schwarber and JT Realmuto, stressing the Phillies' urgency for success (9:17-10:30).

They conducted a detailed breakdown of specific potential trade candidates:

Eugenio Suarez from the Diamondbacks was deemed a definite trade candidate due to market scarcity (10:31-10:40).
Sandy Alcantara, despite a 7.14 ERA, was viewed positively due to his talent and health (10:55-11:24).
Mitch Keller from the Pirates and Zach Allen and Merrill Kelly from the Diamondbacks were discussed as attractive pitching targets, with Towers uncertain on Kelly's market value given his declining velocity (11:35-12:54).
Nolan Arenado was considered a possible high-value trade piece, especially if packaged with Ryan Helsley, making him attractive to teams like the Yankees (12:54-13:53).
Reid Detmers was identified as a valuable asset despite recent struggles, with Towers emphasizing his potential if developed properly (13:54-14:34).

They then analyzed various teams:

The Milwaukee Brewers' recent success raised questions about their legitimacy, given historical postseason struggles (17:06-18:25).
The Toronto Blue Jays, despite inconsistency, were cautiously viewed as potential contenders (19:46-21:33).
The Seattle Mariners were described as too streaky and lacking offensive consistency (22:27-23:10).
The Texas Rangers were recognized for strong pitching but considered lacking sufficient offensive consistency (24:19-24:45).
Tampa Bay Rays were praised for their unpredictable yet effective roster-building approach (24:46-25:33).

In the National League:

The San Diego Padres' potential was acknowledged, but Towers indicated internal cohesion issues possibly hampering performance (25:59-27:59).
The Giants were dismissed as inconsistent and thus not genuine contenders (28:03-28:40).
The Cincinnati Reds were enthusiastically discussed as a young team with potential but needing additional key offensive pieces to become legitimate contenders (29:21-33:27).

Finally, they briefly touched on the Angels, suggesting that adding two pitchers could significantly enhance their playoff chances, despite current struggles and a negative run differential (34:29-35:47).

Scott concluded by emphasizing the approaching trade deadline's impact on MLB futures markets, hinting at further discussions to come (37:47-39:51).

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

NFL Fantasy Football Podcast Preview !! Jul 19, 2025

Show notes

Munaf and Rod get you ready for NFL Fantasy season that is right around the corner.

📌 Late-round focus: Target players with upside in Rounds 12–15, especially in deeper leagues.

📌 Christian Kirk (ADP 144): Poised to benefit from Nico Collins coverage in Houston's high-powered offense.

📌 Trevor Lawrence (ADP 124): Under Liam Cohen’s coordination, Lawrence is set for a rebound season.

📌 Hollywood Brown (ADP 146): With Kansas City's shaky WR room, he could fill in crucial volume behind Kelce.

📌 Jake Ferguson (ADP 135): Expected to remain Dak Prescott’s key short-yardage and red zone target.

📌 Kyle Pitts (ADP 149): May finally break out with QB stability, 602 yards and 4 TDs in 2023 is encouraging.

📌 Nick Chubb (ADP 162): Could see red zone and short-yardage work in Houston alongside Joe Mixon.

📌 Rico Dowdle (ADP 155): Carolina’s committee could mirror Philly’s dual RB success, offering strong value.

📌 Justice Hill (ADP 178): Baltimore pass-catching back with 383 receiving yards and red-zone appeal.

📌 Adam Thielen (ADP 167): Despite age, led Panthers with 615 yards and 5 TDs in 10 games last season.

📌 Daniel Jones (ADP 194): Insurance for injury-prone Anthony Richardson; dual-threat upside.

Podcast Launch Context: Munaf and Rod reunite, outlining weekly podcast structure, recording after injury reports for relevance. Rod will lead content direction and fantasy angles .
Player Evaluation Philosophy: Rather than covering elite players, they dive into RB2, WR3, and flex spot dilemmas that are often league-deciding .
Christian Kirk (WR, Texans): Cited as a value add due to 2022’s 8 TD, 1000-yard season and opportunity created by Tank Dell’s injury. Munaf projects 900+ yards and 6+ TD potential .
Trevor Lawrence (QB, Jaguars): Highlighted for late-round upside under new OC Liam Cohen. Previous two 4000+ yard seasons and expected offensive jump cited .
Hollywood Brown (WR, Chiefs): High ceiling WR in KC’s uncertain pass-catching hierarchy. Previous 1000-yard season and potential rise amid possible Rashee Rice suspension noted .
Jake Ferguson (TE, Cowboys): With 86 targets and 5 TDs last year, he's expected to repeat as Dak’s secondary outlet behind Lamb .
Kyle Pitts (TE, Falcons): Once a top-tier pick, his 602 yards/4 TDs in 2023 hint at resurgence with Michael Penix or Kirk Cousins leading the offense .
Nick Chubb (RB, Texans): Post-injury bounce-back candidate, formerly a 5.1 YPC career rusher. Expected to compete with Mixon, especially for goal-line usage .
Rico Dowdle (RB, Panthers): After 1,079 yards in Dallas, he's a strong flex stash candidate alongside Chuba Hubbard in Carolina's run-heavy setup .
Justice Hill (RB, Ravens): 383 receiving yards and 3 TDs makes him a strong PPR bench option behind Derrick Henry .
Adam Thielen (WR, Panthers): 615 yards/5 TDs in 10 games; Rod believes another 1000-yard season is likely with Bryce Young growth .
Daniel Jones (QB, Colts): A speculative stash in case of another Anthony Richardson injury. Adds rushing upside and comeback potential .
Chigoziem Okonkwo (TE, Titans): Fourth in team targets last year; potential security blanket for new QB Cam Ward .
Devin Neal (RB, Saints): Rookie stash in a murky RB room with Kamara possibly moved; ADP 210 offers low-risk flier appeal .
Wan’Dale Robinson (WR, Giants): 140 targets in 2023 with just 699 yards; Rod anticipates a production spike with Russell Wilson .
Raheem Mostert (RB, Raiders): Chip Kelly offense + rookie RB Ashton Jeanty = opportunity for veteran change-of-pace and red-zone role .

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

UFC 318 Holloway Vs. Poirier Jul 18, 2025

Show notes

SleepyJ and MeanGene break down UFC 318 full main card.

🥋 Poirier's Retirement Impact: Analysts felt emotional but hopeful about Dustin Poirier's retirement, noting his prime condition and consistent top-tier performances.

📊 Zaluber vs Johnson Breakdown: Daniel Zaluber was favored due to his grit, submission potential, and Johnson's 9 career submission losses.

💣 Johnson's Downslide: Michael Johnson's pattern of making tactical mistakes and gassing out was highlighted as a major risk.

🥇 Pitbull Over Ige: Dan Ige’s losses to elite fighters and lack of high-caliber wins made analysts favor Patricio Pitbull.

🎯 Holland at 170: Kevin Holland was seen as significantly stronger and more focused at 170 lbs compared to 185, boosting his chances vs Rodriguez.

🥋 Rodriguez's Durability: While tough, Daniel Rodriguez was expected to get out-struck and possibly submitted by the longer, faster Holland.

⚠️ Costa’s Decline: Paulo Costa’s lack of significant wins since 2019 and reduced activity undermined confidence in him.

💥 Kopylov's Rise: Roman Kopylov’s clean striking and improved gas tank made him a confident pick to beat Costa.

👑 Poirier’s Legacy: Poirier's career, including fights against Aldo, Conor McGregor, and Makachev, was praised as elite and enduring.

🧠 Holloway’s Knockout Risk: Max Holloway’s recent KO loss and weight fluctuations cast doubt on his mental readiness.

Opening Commentary (0:00 - 0:26)
Mean Gene and SSleepy J opened with light-hearted banter before introducing UFC 318, emphasizing its significance due to Poirier’s final fight.
Event Context (0:31 - 2:06)
SSleepy J detailed the location, significance of the matchup, and described the card as decent but driven largely by the Holloway-Poirier narrative.
Poirier’s Legacy & Form (2:07 - 3:54)
Mean Gene highlighted Poirier’s exceptional career and asserted he is still a top lightweight, possibly top 3-4, despite retiring. He cited his debut win and fights with McGregor and Holloway.
Poirier's Impact (3:54 - 6:50)
SSleepy J reflected on Poirier's rise during his own UFC fandom and lauded Poirier’s ability to go five rounds with Islam Makhachev, asserting Poirier is still elite.
Zaluber vs Johnson Analysis (6:50 - 9:56)
Both analysts backed Zaluber. SSleepy J suggested Zaluber by submission at +470, citing Johnson's nine submission losses. Mean Gene agreed, adding Johnson’s fight IQ issues and Zaluber’s toughness.
Dan Ige vs Patricio Pitbull (9:56 - 17:11)
Both analysts questioned Ige’s resume, noting his inability to beat top talent. Pitbull was seen as a value underdog with better grappling and more poise since debuting against Yair Rodriguez.
Holland vs Rodriguez Breakdown (17:12 - 25:28)
SSleepy J expected a cautious bout to go the distance at +165. Mean Gene disagreed, predicting Holland wins inside the distance (−150), citing Holland’s size, reach, and dominance at 170 lbs.
Parlay Strategy (25:28 - 29:25)
SSleepy J shared a betting parlay: Kopylov and Islam Dulatov. He doubted Costa’s skill and motivation, calling him more aesthetic than effective in recent years.
Costa vs Kopylov (29:26 - 33:56)
Both analysts saw Kopylov as a clear favorite due to Costa’s inactivity and low volume. Kopylov’s jab, improved cardio, and technical precision were praised.
Main Event: Holloway vs Poirier (33:57 - 50:52)
Unanimous agreement on Poirier: He’s more well-rounded, has home advantage, and a legacy to cap. Concerns were raised about Holloway’s mental readiness, KO loss, and inconsistency across weight classes.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

NBA Bonus Pod - Season Win Total Preview Jul 17, 2025

Show notes

Munaf Manji and Mackenzie Rivers talk all things NBA.

📉 Utah Jazz Over 18.5: Historically, teams with sub-19 win totals go over (7–0); Mack projects 24.5 wins.

🧓 Phoenix Suns Under 31.5: Losses of Beal and Durant, and a negative age curve led Mack to project 27 wins.

🧠 Toronto Raptors Over 35.5: Brandon Ingram's addition and an underrated core led Mack to declare this his best bet.

🔥 San Antonio Spurs Over 42.5: With Fox and Wemby together, Mack sees a 4-point net rating boost—his boldest pick.

🏀 Milwaukee Bucks Under 44.5: Aging roster and lack of support for Giannis pushed Mack to declare it his best under bet.

🧨 Cleveland Cavaliers Over 55.5: Top-three age-aligned stars and high net rating make them Mack’s favorite high-end over.

🎯 Houston Rockets Over 55.5: Kevin Durant’s addition boosts win projection to nearly 58; strong depth and motivation.

⚠️ Boston Celtics Under 44.5: Loss of Tatum, net rating decline, and lack of a center project only 38.6 wins.

💤 Oklahoma City Thunder Under 62.5: Only four teams ever had higher totals; eight of eleven 60+ win teams went under.

📈 Chicago Bulls Over 32.5: Despite losing names, young pieces like Giddey and White elevate their projection to 37.5.

Utah Jazz (18.5 wins): Mack calls this total historically low, noting all previous teams with sub-19 win totals went over. He projects a minimum of 24.5 wins despite Utah's trades of Clarkson and Sexton.
Washington Wizards (20.5 wins): Munaf likes the mix of veterans (McCollum, Middleton, Smart) and young players (Cam Whitmore, Clayton Jr.). He predicts 23–25 wins.
Brooklyn Nets (21.5 wins): Despite a lean roster, Mack expects their East competition to be weak enough to go over. Projected net rating yields 27 wins.
Charlotte Hornets (25.5 wins): Mack sees strong age-curve improvement from Ball, Miller, and Bridges. LaMelo's health remains the biggest question.
Phoenix Suns (31.5 wins): Loss of Durant and Beal and age-related decline lead Mack to project 27 wins and call this his best “anti-fun” under.
New Orleans Pelicans (32.5 wins): Munaf bets under due to Zion's fragility and lack of depth. Mack slightly disagrees, projecting 34 wins and a lean over.
Chicago Bulls (32.5 wins): Despite shedding DeRozan and LaVine, Mack sees internal growth and new talent (Giddey, Bouzelis) pushing them near 37.5 wins.
San Antonio Spurs (42.5 wins): Mack projects a 4-point value gain from Fox-Wemby synergy. Predicts 47 wins; names this among his top overs.
Toronto Raptors (35.5 wins): Brandon Ingram's arrival and net rating trajectory boost this team’s projection above market expectations. Mack's top Eastern Conference over.
Milwaukee Bucks (44.5 wins): Aged core, bad defense, and poor depth led Mack to confidently declare under—his top fade of the season.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Dream Podcast - NFL Division Previews + CFB & MLB !! Jul 17, 2025

Show notes

Scott Seidenberg and Steve Fezzik talk NFL, CFB & MLB.

NFC West Breakdown (0:05 - 7:38)
Steve Fezzik rates Rams as undervalued due to injuries in 2023 and elite coach-QB pair (McVay, Stafford). Rams scored just 367 points, but projected to exceed 415.5. He ranks Rams > Niners > Cardinals > Seahawks and critiques Seattle’s overestimated line at 8.5 wins.

AFC West: Raiders Hype and Chip Kelly’s Return (8:40 - 12:47)
Scott argues Raiders will outperform expectations with Geno Smith at QB and Chip Kelly calling plays. Brock Bowers and Jacobi Meyers' 2023 stats under poor QB play now see potential boost. Fezzik calls them a solid 7-win team, citing Chip's run-heavy offense and late-season schedule.

Chargers + Broncos Outlook (14:26 - 17:52)
Chargers predicted under due to conservative play style despite defensive strength. Broncos' RJ Harvey (20-1) is seen as an Offensive ROY sleeper with potential 1,000-yard volume workload. Denver expected to open with strong home field edge vs rookie QB-led Tennessee.

NFC + AFC South: Buccaneers, Saints, Panthers, Colts (20:56 - 30:02)
Baker Mayfield and Tampa Bay touted for 425.5 points and playoff upside. Saints viewed as NFL’s worst team with lowest point total (331.5). Panthers could finish second with healthier defense. CJ Stroud’s growth keeps Texans atop AFC South; Titans with Cam Ward expected to struggle.

NFC North Analysis: Lions Dip, Vikings Value (41:15 - 48:53)
Lions projected to decline from 15-2 due to tougher schedule. Fezzik prefers Minnesota over 8.5 wins and calls them well-coached with undervalued rookie QB. Bears and Caleb Williams seen as “no football IQ” with no upside. Packers and Lions projected to vie for wildcard spots.

AFC North Projections (49:22 - 52:08)
Fezzik sees Pittsburgh breaking Tomlin’s no-losing-season streak. Browns mocked as dysfunctional and unbackable. Ravens to soar past 452.5 points due to loss of Tucker and new 3rd-down aggression. Baltimore expected to win division handily over Bengals and Steelers.

AFC + NFC East Takes (54:00 - 59:51)
Buffalo favored for best record due to light travel and home-heavy schedule. Jets, Dolphins seen as regression candidates. In NFC East, Washington’s 9-4 close-game record is flagged as unsustainable. Giants +7 in Week 1 vs. Commanders considered a top dog bet.

Betting Contest Strategy (1:12:13 - 1:14:10)
Fezzik discusses approach to new Westgate CFB contest: use late-week line moves, never take stale numbers, and incorporate top cappers like AJ Hoffman. Warns about overvaluing early entries and stresses value of “perfect info”.

CFB Futures – Clemson, Penn State, Heisman (1:17:25 - 1:21:22)
Clemson praised for returning 80% of roster, Cade Klubnik Heisman potential, and winning the ACC. Penn State seen as top-5 team with NFL defense, Drew Allar breakout season, and Jim Knowles as key coaching hire. Both teams backed for national title contention.

MLB Second Half – Astros, Phillies, Red Sox (1:33:35 - 1:36:06)
Phillies and Astros identified as best bets post-ASB due to strong pitching and key players returning. Toronto flagged for regression due to inflated record. Brewers noted as most profitable team YTD. Fezzik and Scott favor Red Sox over Blue Jays in wild card chase.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Open Championship Picks and Predictions Jul 16, 2025

Show notes

Will Doctor gives you the sharpest card for the 2025 Open Championship at Royal Portrush
-Discussing top 10 on odds board at Open
-4 matchups
-2 t10's
-2 futures outrights, 1 outright added
-Sleeper, 3 R1 three balls, lineups
-Scoring, best bet
For the latest on the world of golf, follow Doc on X @drmedia59

🏌️‍♂️ Chris Gotterup’s rise: Won Scottish Open after going into the final round tied with Rory McIlroy; 2-under front and back on final day despite being put on the clock.

🌦️ Weather forecast: Wind gusts up to 25mph Thursday; mild rest of the week with possible showers—advantageous for accurate drivers and strong iron players.

📊 Rory McIlroy’s readiness: Opened at 8-1; sharper than 2019; recent finishes of 19th (U.S. Open), 6th (Travelers), and 2nd (Scottish) show peak form.

🧠 DeChambeau a fade: Lacks adaptability for windy, changing conditions and fescue greens; poor performance history across the pond.

🏅 Adam Scott analysis: Opened 80-1; gained strokes off the tee and with irons last week; even par on moving day cost him a top finish.

💥 Top matchups: Picks include Fleetwood, Hovland, and Schauffele over DeChambeau; Sink over Zach Johnson based on recent senior tour performance.

📈 Statistical sleepers: Christopher Reitan for top 20 (6-1) with positive strokes gained across tee and greens; Matt Fitzpatrick and Russell Henley picked for top 10.

⛳ Xander Schauffele: Opened 28-1; 68 straight cuts made; sharp driving accuracy and irons, slightly off on putting lately.

💸 Best bet: Anton Rosner to finish top Frenchman at 3-1; consistently outperforming other French golfers in the field.

🧩 Rory added as outright: Based on recent performance surge and favorable conditions, Doctor adds him as a single outright bet at 8-1.

(0:14–0:45) Will Doctor opens with high energy, introducing Week 29 of PGA season, featuring the final major: the 153rd Open Championship at Royal Portrush.
(0:46–2:00) Weather outlook: Mild to moderate wind; rain Thursday morning and possibly over the weekend; favorable for experienced links players.
(2:01–10:20) Chris Gotterup's win: At Scottish Open, played consistent 4-under final round. Beat top players, despite on-course time pressure, proving his form with strong ball striking and length.
(10:21–15:40) Adam Scott and Harry Hall recap: Both underwhelmed slightly; Hall opened hot but collapsed on the weekend, while Scott played consistent but lacked a weekend push.
(15:41–20:30) Robert McIntyre: Poor Scottish performance, especially in driving, but historically capable at Portrush. Holds a 40-1 ticket from December, still seen as viable.
(20:31–30:00) Rory McIlroy analysis: Missed 2019 cut at Portrush due to nerves. Now enters in top form—2nd at Scottish, strong all-around stats—favorable pick over Scheffler and Rahm.
(30:01–40:00) Picks and fades: Scheffler passed on due to putting woes on fescue. Rahm inconsistent with putter and driving accuracy. DeChambeau faded for scientific playstyle and poor Open track record.
(40:01–50:00) Additional odds board picks: Fleetwood, Schauffele, and Hovland analyzed for iron play and putting form. Shane Lowry and Morikawa criticized for inflated odds despite lack of results.
(50:01–60:00) Matchups and sleeper: Fleetwood/Hovland/Xander all picked over DeChambeau. Sleeper is Christopher Reitan for top 20. Best bet: Anton Rosner top Frenchman.
(60:01–end) DraftKings lineup and first-round picks: Rory, McIntyre, Henley, Fitzpatrick, Scott, and Reitan chosen. Three-ball first-round matchups favoring Oosthuizen, McCarty, and Reitan over lesser competitors.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

MLB 1st Half Recap + 2nd Half Preview Jul 15, 2025

Show notes

Munaf Manji and Griffin Warner talk all things MLB.

The 2025 MLB season has reached its midpoint, and this comprehensive analysis covers every division with in-depth insights, team trajectories, betting odds, and trade deadline expectations. In the National League West, the Dodgers hold a firm lead despite recent struggles, with the Diamondbacks falling apart due to injuries and shifting into sell mode. San Diego and San Francisco trail closely but have struggled with consistency. The NL Central has turned into a race between the Cubs and Brewers. The Cubs benefit from the easiest second-half schedule and are positioned to buy key players, while the Brewers boast bullpen strength and recent form despite a tougher road ahead. The Mets and Phillies lead a tense NL East battle, separated by just half a game, with both teams healthy and ready to spend at the deadline. Meanwhile, the Braves' collapse due to poor road performance has effectively eliminated them from contention. In the American League, the Astros control the AL West, built on elite pitching and a dominant bullpen, while Yordan Álvarez’s return could be pivotal. Seattle is competitive but lacks offensive consistency outside of Cal Raleigh. The Rangers struggle on the road but remain in the wild card hunt. The AL Central is ruled by the Tigers, who lead by 11.5 games with the best record in MLB. Other division teams like the Twins, Guardians, and Royals trail far behind and show little sign of catching up. The AL East is a four-team war among the Blue Jays, Yankees, Red Sox, and Rays. The Blue Jays dominate at home but are vulnerable on the road. The Yankees are aggressive buyers with deep pockets, while Boston’s win streak thrust them into the race before a brutal post-break schedule. Tampa Bay has cooled off and may fade. Baltimore, once hyped, is now out of the conversation. Player performance and team value are heavily discussed, such as the Astros' closing combo of Hader and Abreu, the Mariners’ unexpected offense, and concerns over Mookie Betts and the Dodgers' injuries. Betting odds provide deeper context. Dodgers and Tigers lead World Series projections, but analysts recommend the Astros (10:1), Blue Jays (20:1), Padres (28:1), and Mets (9:1) for better returns. These teams combine talent with upside and have the potential to strengthen at the deadline. The episode ends by highlighting key second-half questions: Can underperformers bounce back? Will top teams stay healthy? Who will be the most aggressive buyers? And which wild card hopefuls will surge? The next two months promise a thrilling path to October baseball.

Learn more about your ad choices. Visit megaphone.fm/adchoices

Our TOPPODCAST Picks

Follow Us

Stay Connected

RJ Bell’s Dream Preview

Related Podcasts

Links

Stay Connected