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CFB Group of 5 Season Win Totals !! Aug 13, 2025

Show notes

Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith talk College Football Group of Five betting.

0:05 – 0:31 Opening motivational speech emphasizing speed, defensive swarming, and physical dominance — “Out-block, out-tackle, out-hit, out-hustle” — with a repeated call to “leave no doubt tonight.”

0:31 – 1:19 Griffin Warner Introduces the College Football Podcast episode focusing on Group of Five teams, following a prior episode on the Power Four. Announces a promo code and a college football contest, noting the goal is to identify season-long betting opportunities. Date: Tuesday,

1:45 – 2:33 Griffin Warner Explains that Group of Five games offer strong betting opportunities. Begins with Army (West Point) win total: Over 7.5 at +110, Under 7.5 at -140 on BetOnline.

2:35 – 4:41 Lonte Smith — Army Analysis

2023 Recap: 12–2, AAC champions, led by QB Bryson Daly (dark horse Heisman) and RB Kanye Udo.

Losses: Daly to graduation, Udo to Arizona State, two Joe Moore Award-winning offensive tackles, best defensive player to Georgia.

Returning Talent: Six of top ten tacklers; LB corps Miller & Thomas praised.

Concerns: Offensive drop-off, new OL coach, challenging schedule (Tulane, UTSA, Navy, Air Force).

Projection: 7–5 ceiling, 6–6 floor → leans Under 7.5. 4:41 – 6:08 Griffin Warner & Lonte Smith — Schedule Talk

Army’s 2024 slate includes K-State, North Texas, Tulane, Air Force, Navy (in Baltimore). Lonte favors Navy among service academies, citing better returning production and depth. 7:16 – 14:52 Western Kentucky (C-USA)

Odds: Over 7.5 (-125), Under 7.5 (-105).

2023: 8–6 record.

Roster: Only 3 starters return (1 offense, 2 defense). Poor 2023 rush defense (224 YPG).

Key Additions: QB Maverick McIver (Abilene Christian, 3,500+ yds, 37 TDs), OC Rick Bowie (former Abilene OC). WR Matt Henry (1,100+ yds at Western Illinois).

Concerns: OL continuity, defensive holes, rush defense.

Schedule: Winnable home games; road tests at Toledo, Delaware, Missouri State. Projection: ~8.6 wins → leans Over 7.5.

15:43 – 20:22 Bowling Green (MAC)

Odds: Over 6.5 (+200), Under 6.5 (-260).

2023: 7–6 (6–2 MAC).

Changes: New HC Eddie George; ranked 130th in returning production; offense loses top TE hero Fanning (drafted by Browns).

Defense: Loses 13 of top 15 tacklers but adds FCS standouts (including Eddie George’s son).

Schedule: Lafayette, Cincinnati, Liberty, Louisville early; Toledo and Buffalo at home.

Projection: Depth concerns, brutal early stretch → Under (expects ~4–8). 20:53 – 25:10 Air Force (MWC)

Odds: Over/Under 6.5 (-115).

2023: 5–7 after starting 1–7, finished on 4-game win streak.

Roster: 9 returning starters (6 offense, 3 defense). QB battle (Johnson favored). OL returns 3 starters plus 2 with experience.

Defense: Allowed 23 PPG; DL led by Peyton Zurch.

Schedule: Bucknell, Boise, Navy, Wyoming, Army, UNLV, SJSU, UConn.

Projection: Manageable slate, strong finish expected → Over 6.5 (7–8 wins). 25:38 – 31:06 Georgia Southern (Sun Belt)

Odds: Over 7.5 (+130), Under (-160).

2023: 8–5.

Roster: 10 starters return (5 offense, 5 defense). QB J.C. French (2,500+ yds, 17 TDs, 11 INTs, 66% comp). Deep WR corps; strong OL with most combined starts in Sun Belt.

Defense: Needs rush D improvement; strong secondary led by Chance Gamble.

Schedule: Fresno, USC, Jacksonville State, JMU, Coastal, ODU, Marshall.

Projection: Favors in most conference games except JMU → Over 7.5 (floor 8 wins). 31:07 – 38:35 Playoff/Long-shot Discussion

No strong playoff contenders from teams covered; JMU strong but blocked by JMU matchup for Georgia Southern.

Boise State (2–1 to make playoffs) downgraded without RB Ashton Jeanty.

Long-shot pick: South Florida (33–1) if QB Byron Brown stays healthy; avoid betting until after tough Miami/Florida stretch. 38:36 – End Best Bet: Army Under 7.5 wins. Rationale: Loss of QB, RB, two elite tackles, new OL coach, tough schedule, regression from 12–2 2023 season.

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MLB Tuesday Preview + Best Bets !! Aug 12, 2025

Show notes

Munaf Manji and Griffin Warner break down MLB betting for Tuesday.

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NFL Fantasy Podcast - AFC South Positional Battle Aug 09, 2025

Show notes

Munaf Manji and Rod Villagomez talk NFL fantasy AFC South position battles.

[Munaf Manji | 0:06–0:40]
Introduces focus on AFC South, calling it a tough fantasy division but one he knows well as a Texans fan.

[Rod Villagomez | 0:40–1:40]
Sees the division as building for the future; C.J. Stroud is the main fantasy draw. Mentions hidden Jacksonville talent and early Colts injury concerns.

[Munaf Manji | 1:41–2:28]
Podcast aims to find deep fantasy values. Notes Anthony Richardson’s alarming finger injury.

[Rod Villagomez | 2:29–4:06]
Injury is dislocated pinky; day-to-day. Reviews limited playing history—4 games rookie year, 11 last year—warning about development setbacks.

[Munaf Manji | 4:07–5:41]
Colts hoped to compete; Daniel Jones played vs. Ravens (10/21, 144 yds, 0 TDs) in 24–16 preseason loss.

[Rod Villagomez | 5:42–7:47]
Texans RB depth impacted by Joe Mixon foot injury; Nick Chubb signed. Competition: Chubb, Damian Pierce, Woody Marks, Dare Ogunbowale.

[Munaf Manji | 7:48–9:09]
Chubb was preseason sleeper; Pierce’s workload uncertain.

[Rod Villagomez | 9:23–11:16]
Pierce’s 2023: 40 carries, 293 yds (7.39 YPC); career mostly ~3–4 YPC. Preseason will decide RB2.

[Munaf Manji | 11:17–12:23]
ADP: Chubb RB47 (~146 overall); Pierce undrafted. Texans open vs. Vikings.

[Rod Villagomez | 12:24–15:22]
WR2 battle with Tank Dell likely out all season (knee). Christian Kirk, rookies Jaden Higgins & Jalen Noel in mix. Dalton Schultz could finish top-4 TE.

[Munaf Manji | 15:23–16:31]
WR2 winner offers late-round fantasy value.

[Rod Villagomez | 16:32–18:41]
Colts QB battle: Richardson vs. Jones. Says it’s “now or never” for Jones; Richardson’s 2023 was 8 TDs, 12 INTs.

[Munaf Manji | 18:42–19:59]
Richardson likely starts but Jones worth monitoring on waivers.

[Rod Villagomez | 20:00–22:28]
Colts WR stats: Pittman (111 targets, 808 yds, 3 TDs), Downs (107 targets, 803 yds, 5 TDs), Pierce (69 targets, 824 yds, 7 TDs, 22.3 YPC).

[Munaf Manji | 23:59–25:27]
Preseason injuries: Pittman (groin), Pierce (foot blister). Pittman ADP ~116; Downs similar; Pierce mostly undrafted.

[Rod Villagomez | 25:28–25:46]
Pierce and Downs both viable late picks.

[Munaf Manji | 25:47–26:23]
Jaguars segment opens with Travis Hunter’s two-way potential.

[Rod Villagomez | 26:24–28:14]
Hunter could be more impactful on offense with Brian Thomas Jr., Deami Brown, Parker Washington.

[Munaf Manji | 28:15–29:33]
Jaguars lack true WR1; Hunter could fill that role.

[Rod Villagomez | 29:34–31:13]
RB stats: Etienne (558 yds, 3.7 YPC, 2 TDs) vs. Bixby (766 yds, 4.6 YPC, 7 TDs).

[Munaf Manji | 31:13–32:08]
Bixby’s low ADP makes him strong value.

[Rod Villagomez | 32:09–32:46]
Bixby could overtake Etienne.

[Munaf Manji | 32:47–33:54]
TE battle: 7 contenders; Brenton Strange (411 yds, 2 TDs) is TE1.

[Rod Villagomez | 35:20–37:52]
153 vacated targets could elevate Strange. Cohen’s offense favors TE usage.

[Munaf Manji | 37:53–40:00]
Strange could finish TE9–TE12; late-round flex candidate.

[Rod Villagomez & Munaf Manji | 40:01–45:54]
Titans have no major battles. QB Cam Ward locked in; Pollard RB1 (1,000 yds, 4.2 YPC, 57 targets, 238 rec yds). WRs Ridley, Lockett, Jefferson set; TE Chig Okonkwo has upside.

[Rod Villagomez | 45:55–end]
Closes with preseason game list and fantasy prep reminder.

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MLB Friday Preview + Best Bets !! Aug 08, 2025

Show notes

Munaf Manji and Griffin Warner break down MLB betting for Friday.

📉 Fading Mitch Keller: Keller has a 5.75 ERA against Cincinnati in his career and has allowed 3 ER in each start post-All-Star break.

🎯 Brewers as Best Bet: Brandon Woodruff has 37 K and 4 BB in 28.1 IP with a 0.64 WHIP, and the Brewers are undefeated in his 6 starts this season.

🔼 Astros Momentum: Hunter Brown is back in form with 12 IP, 2 ER in last two outings. Yankees' reliance on home runs a liability.

🚀 Mariners Undervalued: Seattle at home with Luis Castillo is priced cheaply against a travel-weary Rays team, with Drew Rasmussen likely limited.

🔥 Guardians Surging: Cleveland swept the Mets and is climbing in the AL Central. Tanner Bibee is a concern, but Aaron Civale is in great form.

🧨 Rangers Underdog Value: Merrill Kelly is a strong underdog play vs. Phillies; Texas is 10-2 at home since the All-Star break.

🔒 Twins Depend on Joe Ryan: Joe Ryan is 7-0, 1.30 ERA in 9 starts vs. KC. Royals pitcher Seth Lugo has 8 BB in last 2 starts.

🧮 Over in Arizona: Rockies’ Gomber and Diamondbacks’ Gallen create a perfect storm for hitting; game total over 9 is attractive.

💰 Fade the Dodgers: Dodgers always overpriced; Jays’ offense is rolling, and Scherzer's recent form is solid.

💥 Nick Pivetta Dominance: At home, Pivetta is 7-0 with a 1.99 ERA in 12 starts, making the Padres a strong play.

Cincinnati vs Pittsburgh [2:45–6:23]
Griffin leans Reds at -103, citing Chase Burns’ high ceiling and Keller’s 5.75 ERA vs. CIN. Munaf notes the Pirates’ offense is inconsistent and backs the Reds ML.
Astros vs Yankees [6:24–10:11]
Both skeptical of Cam Schlittler’s polish. Hunter Brown’s rebound form (12 IP, 2 ER) is encouraging. Yankees’ offense is reliant on HRs. Both favor Astros ML.
A’s vs Orioles [10:12–14:09]
Both skeptical of JT Ginn’s consistency. Orioles’ young core still dangerous. Orioles’ home performance (5–2 post-ASB) leans Munaf to take the home team.
Angels vs Tigers [14:10–17:03]
Griffin calls -312 for DET “ridiculous.” Skubal’s Cy Young season isn't duplicating; Hendricks has quietly been solid. Both like the under (7.5 or F5 under 4).
Marlins vs Braves [17:04–21:23]
Cabrera’s 1 ER in each of last 3 starts vs Elder’s 6.54 ERA at home makes MIA appealing. Both back the Marlins ML and expect runs.
Guardians vs White Sox [21:24–24:46]
Guardians are hot, but Aaron Civale has 3 straight shutouts. Munaf notes CHW are 7–2 SU at home on Fridays. Recommends White Sox 1H ML.
Phillies vs Rangers [24:47–28:10]
Munaf emphasizes Rangers’ 10–2 home record post-ASB. Kelly a great dog. Both favor under 7.5 and like TEX ML at +116.
Mets vs Brewers [28:11–31:15]
Woodruff has a 0.64 WHIP and Brewers are 6–0 in his starts. Senga giving up 4 ER in 2 of last 3. Both hammer Brewers ML (Munaf’s Best Bet).
Royals vs Twins [31:25–35:14]
Joe Ryan’s domination of KC (1.30 ERA in 9 starts) vs. Lugo’s wildness (8 BB in 2 games). Munaf likes Twins ML and F5 under.
Rays vs Mariners [46:39–50:15]
Mariners -125 is Griffin’s Best Bet. Seattle plays well at home, and Rasmussen’s limited innings vs. a playoff-hunting SEA team makes M’s the play.

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Dream Podcast - NFL Preseason Preview + Fezzik Betting Boot Camp ! Aug 07, 2025

Show notes

Scott Seidenberg and Steve Fezzik talk all things NFL this week.

🏈 Preseason Player & Team Analysis (00:04 - 10:21)

🔉 Scott Seidenberg (00:04 - 03:40) predicted Matthew Stafford might miss the first two regular-season games due to back issues. He recommended betting under Stafford’s 3,750 passing yards, which later adjusted to 3,600 yards, reinforcing his view as information from Ian Rapoport confirmed an aggravated disc and epidural injections.

📉 Steve Fezzik (03:42) underscored epidurals only mask pain and don't cure the injury, supporting the under bet. He further advocated betting Rams under 10 wins or missing the playoffs.

📊 Line movement insight (04:34): Rams moved from -3 to -2.5 vs. Texans. If Jimmy G starts due to Stafford’s absence, Seidenberg speculated the line might swing to Rams -1.5 or even Texans pick’em, emphasizing Houston's +2 power rating versus Rams' -2, potentially setting Houston -4 on neutral, or -3 in LA.

💡 Week 2 warning (06:22): No change in line Rams -5.5 at Titans, making it a value opportunity if Stafford remains out. Fezzik liked Titans +5.5 due to their "bet-on" team profile.

⚠️ Seidenberg’s fear (07:31): Titans could be the “sharp’s darling disappointment” like last year’s Panthers. Fezzik argued Panthers were victims of defensive injuries, not poor form.

🧠 Survivor Strategy: Parsons’ absence could impact Cowboys @ Eagles. Fezzik emphasized picking Eagles in survivor pools rather than betting -7, since early success reduces entry value risk, quoting:

“Your entry, moron, isn’t even worth $1000... and you haven’t won yet.” (14:05)

🔥 Burrow Plays: Bengals starters including Joe Burrow will open vs. Eagles. Play Bengals 1Q -0.5 (-170) as Eagles start Tanner McKee. Total: 37—Fezzik prefers Week 1 unders when totals exceed 37.

🔄 Raiders vs Seahawks: Pete Carroll (28-20 preseason) may care more facing former team. Avoid assuming no motivation.

📊 Quarter and half-line strategies: Favor betting 1st quarters/halves with starter insights. Seidenberg said:

“Starters for one or two drives? Bet the first quarter. Avoid the full game.”

Fezzik’s critical note:

“In the preseason, the number is just wrong... I actually think I want to lay the six.” (19:20)

He emphasized blindly betting steam-chased lines at 6–8 AM PST is profitable.

Week 2 targets:

Bengals vs Commanders (ESPN MNF): Bet Bengals (starters will play more).
Eagles vs Browns: Eagles are undervalued as Browns starters won’t play (Flacco gets reps in joint practice).

Fezzik dismissed betting Eagles in preseason:

“Sirianni is McVay. He doesn’t care.” (21:25)

Scott Seidenberg’s 2026 insight:

“New Bills Stadium blocks wind. In wind games, totals get steamed down… we’ll bet the over.”

Contrast: Northwestern’s temp field = wind risk.

Alt win totals:

Saints under 5.5 = -110
Saints under 4.5 = +140
Saints under 2.5 = +500
Fezzik: only under 4.5 is fair value:

“If you get more than 100 cents selling a win, it's good.”

🧠 Teaser Math Lesson:

Two-team teaser at -120 = two -280 moneylines
Not all -7 spreads have equal MLs:
- Eagles -7 = ML -340
- Commanders -7 = ML -290
- 49ers -7 = ML -325
  Thus, Eagles are teaser-worthy, others aren’t.

Fezzik shared 10 out of 50 bootcamp tips:

Poker tip: Join new tables—new players = easier money.
Diamond status trick: 10x points at Caesars + 30 mins = free hotel stays.
Bonus bets: Use for parlays/long shots, not ATS.
Soft markets: Bet golf, tennis, obscure sports.
Pitcher importance: In HR Derby, pitcher matters more than hitter.
Pace betting: Target live college basketball first-half overs/unders.
3-leg parlays: Better odds than 4-legs; lower juice.
Avoid 4-leg parlays: Effective juice = -140, worse value.
Betting Round Robins: Mix +EV 3-leggers for long-term win.
Medical checkups: Best EV tip—"Get tested."

3-leg teaser (+180) is more +EV than 2-leg at -120. Fezzik warns against 4-leg teasers unless they pay 3:1 or more.

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FedEx St. Jude Championship Picks and Predictions Aug 06, 2025

Show notes

Will Doctor gives you the sharpest card for the action at TPC Southwind.
Description: -Discussing top 5 on odds board
-Matchup, t10
-1 outright
-Sleeper, FRP, 2 lineups
-Scoring, best bet

🏆 Cameron Young’s breakthrough: Won Wyndham by six strokes, gaining over 10 strokes putting, his first PGA Tour victory after seven runner-up finishes.

📊 Ryder Cup implications: Young’s win propels him to 15th in USA points; Keegan Bradley, Collin Morikawa, and Maverick McNeely face selection pressure.

🔥 Scotty Scheffler dominance: Coming off his fourth win of the season; projected by Will to win at TPC Southwind.

🎯 Course demands: TPC Southwind requires accurate driving, high-trajectory iron shots, and sharp short games, especially on firm Bermuda greens.

⛳ Harris English sleeper: Ranked 7th in FedEx Cup, with strong past results at Southwind (win in 2013, T4 in 2021).

📉 Betting recap: Previous picks down 4.7 units; highlights include Chris Kirk’s T5 and Ben Griffin’s T11, but misfires on Kevin Kisner and Lucas Glover.

📋 DFS lineups: DraftKings core includes Scheffler, Matsuyama, Bridgman, and Highsmith.

📌 Rory McIlroy controversy: Will criticizes McIlroy for skipping the playoff opener, calling it “pathetic” given FedEx sponsorship stakes.

💡 Key matchups & picks: Jacob Bridgman over Aldridge Potgieter (-175), Xander Schauffele top 10 (+125), Harris English top 10 (+300).

🌡 Conditions & scoring: Memphis heat expected; predicted winning score at -17.

(0:15 - 0:28) Will Doctor opens with enthusiasm for the FedEx St. Jude Championship and promises sharp analysis for bettors and fans.
(0:38 - 32:16) Will Doctor reviews Cameron Young’s historic Wyndham win, emphasizing his 10+ strokes gained putting and contextualizing it as one of the most dominant putting performances of the season. He highlights its impact on Ryder Cup standings, placing Young 15th and pressuring others like Bradley, Morikawa, and McNeely.
Will critiques Colin Morikawa’s inconsistency (fifth caddie this season, limited top finishes) and defends Keegan Bradley’s Ryder Cup spot, pointing to his two wins in 25 starts and 4-3 Ryder Cup record.
The discussion shifts to Brian Harman, who sits 12th in Ryder Cup points with strong finishes (T10 at The Open, win in San Antonio) and historical success at Southwind, making him a likely selection barring poor play.
Will criticizes Rory McIlroy for skipping the playoff opener, calling it “pathetic” given the $25M prize pool and FedEx’s role as the tour’s biggest sponsor.
He provides course analysis for TPC Southwind, noting narrow fairways, water hazards, and firm Bermuda greens that favor high-trajectory iron players and elite short-game specialists.
Scotty Scheffler is identified as the primary outright pick (+315), with Will predicting his fifth win of the season due to his exceptional ball striking and recently improved putting.
Additional picks: Xander Schauffele top 10 (+125) for his consistency at Southwind and Jacob Bridgman over Aldridge Potgieter (-175) based on Bridgman’s accuracy and putting edge.
Harris English emerges as the sleeper top 10 pick (+300), supported by his FedEx ranking (7th), Ryder Cup standing (6th), and history at Southwind (win in 2013, T4 in 2021).
DFS lineups are outlined, with Scheffler as captain, alongside Matsuyama, Fitzpatrick, English, and value plays like Chris Kirk and Joe Highsmith.

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CFB Podcast Is Back !! - Futures & More Aug 06, 2025

Show notes

Griffin Warner and Lonte Smith get you ready for the CFB 2025 season.

🎯 Pittsburgh over 6.5 wins: Pat Narduzzi’s defensive core, featuring Kyle Lewis and Rasheem Biles, plus RB Des Reid’s 1,500+ yards of production, sets the foundation .

📉 Arizona State under 8.5 wins: Losing Cam Scadaboo’s 2,300+ yards and facing a schedule with Mississippi State, Baylor, and Utah makes sustaining success unlikely .

📉 Oregon under 10.5 wins: QB Dante Moore’s inexperience and just one returning O-line starter threaten offensive stability .

📉 South Carolina under 7.5 wins: Despite elite athletes like Sellers and Dillon Stewart, poor O-line play and defensive losses spell regression .

📈 Miami’s playoff value: Carson Beck thrives in a less demanding ACC, backed by strong protection and weapons .

📈 SMU’s high-ceiling schedule: Early matchups vs Baylor and TCU provide resume-building chances despite roadblocks like Clemson .

📈 Louisville as a sleeper: Offensive system continuity and favorable home games against top teams make them a playoff dark horse .

📊 Playoff odds snapshot: LSU (+130), Miami (+175), Ole Miss (+170), and Louisville (3-1) stand out as potential value bets .

🔢 Critical stretches: South Carolina’s brutal LSU-Oklahoma-Alabama-Ole Miss-Texas A&M stretch likely defines their season .

🧠 Coaching & system insights: Dan Lanning’s first season without a veteran QB at Oregon raises big offensive questions, while Kenny Dillingham’s Arizona State faces depth challenges .

Pittsburgh’s Path to 7 Wins (0:32–12:00) – Griffin and Lonte outline Pitt’s 7.35 projected wins, highlighting Pat Narduzzi’s defensive focus and RB Des Reid’s Darren Sproles-like dual-threat ability. QB Eli Holstein’s leash may be short with Cole Gonzalez waiting .
Arizona State’s Regression (13:23–20:13) – With Cam Scadaboo’s 24-touchdown production gone, Lonte foresees a major offensive dip. Defensive pass rush remains a huge weakness against pass-heavy Big 12 offenses .
Oregon’s QB Transition (22:14–28:22) – New starter Dante Moore faces Big Ten defenses with only one O-line starter returning. The Ducks’ WR group also lacks proven playmakers, raising major concerns .
South Carolina’s Harsh Reality (29:45–38:53) – Elite athletes like Sellers and Dillon Stewart can’t offset O-line deficiencies (40.1% pressure rate allowed) and defensive attrition from five drafted players .
Miami’s Playoff Dark Horse (40:12–43:05) – Carson Beck steps into a loaded Miami offense with top-tier O-line support, benefiting from an ACC schedule lacking Clemson .
SMU’s Resume-Building Schedule (43:05–44:52) – Early showdowns with Baylor and TCU could propel SMU into playoff talks despite the challenge of a Clemson road trip .
Louisville’s System Advantage (45:58–47:29) – Jeff Brohm’s quarterback-friendly system makes Louisville a reliable value pick, with pivotal home games vs Clemson and Miami .
SEC Brutality for South Carolina (35:45–38:53) – A grueling five-game stretch against LSU, Oklahoma, Alabama, Ole Miss, and Texas A&M is likely to derail the Gamecocks’ season .
Value in Longshot Playoff Bets (40:12–47:29) – Teams like LSU, Miami, SMU, and Louisville emerge as attractive plus-money playoff bets .
Promo & Contest (20:14–49:05) – The episode ends with details on pregame.com’s “Beat Greg Shaker” contest and a 20% promo code for listeners .

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MLB Tuesday Preview + Best Bets 8525 !! Aug 05, 2025

Show notes

Munaf Manji and Griffin Warner break down MLB betting for Tuesday. Best bets as always.

⚾ Logan Webb vs. Mike Burrows: Both pitchers are in solid form; first five under is a strong play.

🔥 Twins vs. Tigers: Griffin calls the Twins a “scorched-earth” team post-deadline; Munaf trusts Chris Paddack to stay sharp.

📉 Nationals offense collapse: Mackenzie Gore struggling, while Luis Severino thrives on the road (3.03 ERA away).

😬 Phillies vs. Orioles: Dean Kramer steady, but Phillies' Taijuan Walker a fade candidate; total over gets consideration.

💪 Garrett Crochet dominance: Red Sox ace holding a 2.23 ERA; Boston 6–0 in his last six starts.

📊 Brewers vs. Braves: Freddy Peralta strong at home (2.13 ERA), but struggles on road; Braves undervalued as dogs.

🛑 Yankees defensive woes: Despite Judge’s return, the fielding issues persist; Rangers bullpen remains elite under Bruce Bochy.

📉 Padres vs. Diamondbacks: Yu Darvish showing flashes of old form (7 IP shutout vs. Mets); Ryan Nelson excellent at home (2.09 ERA).

🚀 Dodgers offense vs. Michaelis: Cards’ weak bullpen and bad defense likely fuel LA’s big bats; Dodgers team total over recommended.

💵 Best Bets:

Griffin: Yankees–Rangers under 8.5
Munaf: Red Sox -1.5 vs. Royals.

Munaf & Griffin open (0:09–2:30): Discuss the August slate and frustrations with Wilson Contreras’ defense hurting bets.
Giants vs. Pirates (2:31–6:25): Analyze Logan Webb and Mike Burrows; prefer first-five under and lean Pirates ML.
Twins vs. Tigers (6:26–9:27): Post-deadline Twins gutted; Chris Paddack trending upward.
A’s vs. Nationals (9:28–12:13): Severino thriving on the road; fading Mackenzie Gore; value on A’s ML.
Orioles vs. Phillies (12:14–15:15): Lean Orioles as dogs; consider total over due to Phillies’ shaky Walker.
Royals vs. Red Sox (15:15–17:35): Red Sox surging; Garrett Crochet a Cy Young contender; Munaf likes run line.
Guardians vs. Mets (17:35–21:08): Mets inconsistent; Guardians bullpen a concern; lean Mets.
Brewers vs. Braves (21:08–25:22): Braves value as home dogs with Joey Wentz vs. road-weary Peralta.
Yankees vs. Rangers (25:22–29:29): Judge returns; big under trend at Globe Life; Griffin recommends under.
Padres vs. Diamondbacks & Dodgers vs. Cardinals (48:03–54:15): Favor offense in Arizona game (over 9); Dodgers likely dominate Michaelis; back LA team total & run line.

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The Inside Pitch w/Josh Towers: Post Trade Deadline Aug 04, 2025

Show notes

Former MLB Pitcher Josh Towers and Scott Seidenberg recap the MLB trade deadline, talk about the biggest moves and play a game of Bet or Pass on MLB Futures.

⚾ Marlins’ dominance: 30–14 since June 13, top-3 ERA, and elite FIP rankings.

📊 Yankees’ imbalance: 6th-best offense (107 WRC+) but bottom-tier pitching (4.51 ERA since June 1).

🔥 Aaron Judge’s impact: Absence exposed the Yankees’ inability to manufacture wins without his bat.

🔄 Astros’ big move: Carlos Correa returns, filling gaps caused by injuries and providing veteran leadership.

🚀 Padres’ aggressive strategy: Added closer Mason Miller (5–2, 3.86 ERA) and power hitters, aiming to close a 3-game gap with the Dodgers.

💪 Phillies’ bullpen upgrade: Acquired Jhoan Duran and anticipate Jose Alvarado’s return, addressing their back-end pitching needs.

📉 Volpe’s struggles: Defensive miscues at shortstop and mental lapses highlighted as a key weakness for the Yankees.

📈 Red Sox stability: Consistent play and faith in their prospects make them legitimate AL East contenders.

📉 Twins' puzzling sell-off: Despite being competitive last year, Minnesota stripped key pieces, confusing analysts.

💸 Futures betting angles: Red Sox (+400), Padres (+500), and Yankees to miss the playoffs (+475) were discussed as intriguing bets.

Miami Marlins’ surge: Since June 13, the Marlins are 30–14 with the best pitching metrics in baseball. Towers praised Jensen Junk (5–2, 3.86 ERA) as a breakout performer.
Yankees’ crisis: Seidenberg and Towers dissected New York’s fall, citing a top-6 offense but abysmal pitching and Volpe’s defensive struggles. Aaron Boone’s leniency toward Jazz Chisholm’s poor baserunning drew sharp criticism.
Astros’ Correa reunion: Correa’s return is viewed as both a cultural and defensive boost, crucial for maintaining their narrow AL West lead over Seattle.
Padres’ playoff push: San Diego added Mason Miller, O’Hearn, and Laureano, positioning themselves as serious NL West contenders despite a 3-game deficit.
Phillies’ key acquisition: Jhoan Duran solidifies the bullpen, and Jose Alvarado’s upcoming return could elevate them to NL East dominance.
Red Sox consistency: Boston’s measured approach with prospects and refusal to trade core players has fostered confidence and sustained momentum.
Twins’ puzzling decisions: Despite remaining competitive last season, Minnesota traded away key players, drawing Towers’ ire.
Betting insights: Futures wagers like the Yankees missing playoffs (+475) and Padres winning NL West (+500) offer high-value opportunities.
Volpe’s decline: Towers highlighted mental and mechanical issues contributing to Volpe’s defensive errors.
Playoff outlook: Seidenberg predicted massive volatility in the standings, with the Yankees potentially falling out of playoff contention within a week.

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NFL Fantasy Podcast - AFC North Position Battles Aug 02, 2025

Show notes

Rod Villagomez and Munaf Manji talk NFL fantasy Football AFC North.

Cincinnati Bengals: Noah Fant joins Mike Gusecki in a deep tight-end room, but Gusecki remains the preferred late-round fantasy option due to existing chemistry with Joe Burrow.

Cleveland Browns: With Deshaun Watson re-injuring his Achilles and Joe Flacco (40) leading the depth chart, the quarterback situation remains murky. Shadur Sanders shows promise but needs development.
Pittsburgh Steelers: Aaron Rodgers targets DK Metcalf heavily, but the dual-tight-end approach with Pat Friermuth and Jonu Smith makes both fantasy-viable.
Baltimore Ravens: DeAndre Hopkins joins Zay Flowers, but Flowers remains the WR1. Derrick Henry anchors the backfield, with Justice Hill as a strong PPR stash.
Team context: The episode emphasized how team schemes (like Pittsburgh’s two-TE sets and Baltimore’s triple-option look) will influence fantasy outcomes.

🟢 Gusecki vs. Fant: Gusecki leads as the Bengals’ primary TE target, with 665 yards and 2 TDs last season, while Fant produced 500 yards and 1 TD.

🟠 Shadur Sanders’ upside: Reports praise his preseason performance, but the Browns may shelter him behind Flacco early.

🔵 Joe Flacco’s limited fantasy value: At QB36 with a 232 ADP, he’s undrafted in most formats.

🟡 Aaron Rodgers’ tendencies: Historically feeds his WR1 (Metcalf now), with TE-heavy sets likely boosting Friermuth and Jonu Smith.

🟣 Friermuth vs. Smith: Friermuth logged 668 yards & 7 TDs; Jonu Smith had 884 yards & 8 TDs. Both may hit high red-zone usage.

🟤 DeAndre Hopkins’ new role: Likely a secondary target to Zay Flowers, functioning as a veteran decoy and red-zone option.

⚪ Zay Flowers WR1: With 116 targets last season, Flowers remains Lamar Jackson’s top passing option.

🟤 Justice Hill’s value: As a pass-catching RB (403 yards, 4 TDs), Hill provides PPR upside late in drafts.

🔴 Derrick Henry workload: Coming off 325 carries and 16 TDs, Henry remains dominant but could cede snaps to preserve health.

🟢 ADP insights: Players like Hill (178 ADP) and Gusecki (184 ADP) offer late-round value in deeper leagues.

Opening Context (0:07 – 2:32): Munaf and Rod discuss preseason overreactions, such as Trey Lance hype, and frame the conversation on AFC North battles, noting most positions are set.
Cincinnati Bengals TE Battle (9:22 – 14:58): Gusecki vs. Fant dominates the discussion, with Gusecki’s chemistry with Burrow making him the safer pick despite Fant’s arrival.
Cleveland Browns QB Chaos (16:14 – 25:10): Deshaun Watson’s re-injured Achilles opens the door for Flacco, while Shadur Sanders shows promise but needs seasoning.
Steelers TE & WR Depth (26:38 – 33:56): Aaron Rodgers’ arrival makes Metcalf a top target, with Friermuth and Jonu Smith projected for significant red-zone work.
Baltimore WR Situation (35:32 – 44:23): Hopkins joins as a veteran WR2 while Zay Flowers remains the focal point. Likely’s injury solidifies Mark Andrews’ TE dominance.
Justice Hill’s PPR Flex Role (44:36 – 48:21): Hill is highlighted as a sneaky late-round stash with strong pass-catching skills.
Derrick Henry Durability (38:00 – 44:00): Discussion on limiting Henry’s workload after 325 carries to preserve him for playoffs.
Roster Depth Impact: Depth battles like these affect fantasy margins, particularly in competitive leagues.
Fantasy Draft Strategy: Emphasis on targeting late-round sleepers like Gusecki and Hill for roster flexibility.
Closing & Next Week (50:01 – 53:19): The hosts preview their next divisional breakdown (AFC South) and tease a listener league.

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