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    Risk Parity Radio

    Risk Parity Radio is a podcast about investing located at www.riskparityradio.com.  RPR explores risk-parity style portfolios comprised of uncorrelated or negatively correlated asset classes — stocks, selected bonds, gold, managed futures, and other easily accessible fund options for the DIY investor.  The goal is to construct portfolios that are robust and can be drawn down on in perpetuity, and to maximize projected Safe Withdrawal Rates regardless of projected overall returns.

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    Copyright: © 2024 Risk Parity Radio

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    Latest Episodes:
    Episode 20: Monthly Rant About Financial Mis-Wisdom, Portfolio Reviews As Of October 12, 2020 And A Comparison Of The Accelerated Permanent Portfolio Against Two Dave Ramsey-Style Portfolios Oct 04, 2020
    Show notes

    We begin with a monthly rant about the misguided idea of picking funds that have "great fund managers" and a few other topics.
    Relevant links:
    Recent interview of Burton Malkiel: https://animalspiritspod.libsyn.com/a-random-talk-with-burton-malkiel
    Risk Parity Radio Bond Episodes:
    https://www.riskparityradio.com/podcast/episode/4965a5d2/episode-14-which-bonds-are-right-for-your-risk-parity-style-portfolio-a-comprehensive-analysis-part-i
    https://www.riskparityradio.com/podcast/episode/4c25df5c/episode-16-which-bonds-are-right-for-your-risk-parity-style-portfolio-a-comprehensive-analysis-part-2
    Following the rant is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
    We also compare the Accelerated Permanent Portfolio with two Dave Ramsey-Style Portfolios using the tools at Portfolio Visualizer. Relevant links:
    White Coat Investor article about a Ramsey-style portfolio: https://www.whitecoatinvestor.com/dave-ramsey-asset-allocation/
    Portfolio Visualizer analysis:
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=7.5&relativeDeviation=0.0&showYield=true&reinvestDividends=true&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=PFF&allocation1_1=25&symbol2=TMF&allocation2_1=27.5&symbol3=GLD&allocation3_1=22.5&symbol4=UPRO&allocation4_1=25&symbol5=VIVIX&allocation5_2=25&symbol6=VMGRX&allocation6_2=25&allocation6_3=25&symbol7=VSCIX&allocation7_2=25&symbol8=VGTSX&allocation8_2=25&symbol9=VGIAX&allocation9_3=25&symbol10=VSGIX&allocation10_3=25&symbol11=VWIGX&allocation11_3=25

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    Episode 19: What About REITs As An Investment In A Risk Parity-Style Portfolio? (Part 1 of 2) Sep 30, 2020
    Show notes

    In this episode, which is Part One of Two, we begin our analysis of REITS as an investment using David Stein's 10 Questions to Master Investing, which are:
    1. What is it?
    2. Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
    3. What is the upside?
    4. What is the downside?
    5. Who is on the other side of the trade?
    6. What is the investment vehicle?
    7. What does it take to be successful?
    8. Who is getting a cut?
    9. How does it impact your portfolio?
    10. Should you invest?
    We cover the first five questions in this episode.
    Helpful links:
    Investopedia Article on REITs: https://www.investopedia.com/terms/r/reit.asp
    Directory of REITs by sector: https://www.reit.com/investing/reit-directory?title=nly&field_rtc_listing_status_tid_selective[]=524&field_address_country_selective[]=US&sort_by=title
    The Section 199A Tax Benefits of REITs: https://www.kitces.com/blog/reit-real-estate-investments-section-199a-qbi-deduction/#:~:text=Because%20under%20IRC%20Section%20199A,Qualified%20Business%20Income%20or%20QBI)
    Correlation Matrix of Most of the REITs and funds mentioned: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&symbols=VTI%2C+VNQ%2C+VNQI%2C+REET%2C+BXP%2C+PLD%2C+O%2C+SPG%2C+AVB%2C+WY%2C+VTR%2C+WELL%2C+PSA%2C+AMT%2C+CCI%2C+DLR%2C+WPC%2C+VNO%2C+LAMR%2C+GLPI%2C+LAND%2C+IRM&timePeriod=2&tradingDays=60&months=36

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    Episode 18: Portfolio Reviews As Of September 25, 2020 And A Comparison Of The Risk Parity Ultimate Portfolio Against The Bogleheads Three-Fund Portfolio Sep 27, 2020
    Show notes

    This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
    We also compare the Risk Parity Ultimate Portfolio with a Boglehead's Three-Fund Portfolio using the tools at Portfolio Visualizer. Here is a link to that analysis:
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=true&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=2.5&relativeDeviation=0.0&showYield=true&reinvestDividends=true&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&allocation1_1=0&allocation1_3=0&symbol2=VUG&allocation2_1=12.5&allocation2_3=0&symbol3=VIOV&allocation3_1=12.5&allocation3_3=0&symbol4=VOO&allocation4_1=12.5&allocation4_3=0&symbol5=EDV&allocation5_1=5&symbol6=TLT&allocation6_1=15&allocation6_3=0&symbol7=GLD&allocation7_1=10&symbol8=VNQ&allocation8_1=10&allocation8_3=0&symbol9=VNQI&allocation9_1=0&allocation9_3=0&symbol10=VIXY&allocation10_1=2.5&symbol11=PFF&allocation11_1=12.5&symbol12=UPRO&allocation12_1=2.5&allocation13_1=0&symbol14=TMF&allocation14_1=5&symbol15=VTI&allocation15_2=40&symbol16=BND&allocation16_2=40&symbol17=VXUS&allocation17_2=20
    The Risk Parity Ultimate is a conservative portfolio that is designed for medium and long-term needs. It is comprised of 12 different funds in six different asset classes: 40% stock funds (split into 12.5% VUG, 12.5% VIOV, 6.25% USMV, 6.25% SPLV and 2.5% UPRO), 25% long-term treasury bond funds (split into 15% TLT, 5% EDV and 5% TMF), 12.5% preferred stock funds (PFF), 10% gold (GLDM), 10% REITs (REET) and 2.5% in a stock market volatility tracking fund (VXX).
    Here is the link to Episode 9, where we discuss investing in preferred stock shares and the PFF fund in particular:
    https://www.riskparityradio.com/podcast/episode/48e031bb/episode-9-how-to-choose-investments-using-a-process-and-an-application-to-a-preferred-stock-fund

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    Episode 17: Portfolio Reviews As Of September 18, 2020 And A Comparison Of The Golden Ratio Portfolio Against The Bogleheads Three-Fund Portfolio Sep 20, 2020
    Show notes

    This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
    We also compare the Golden Butterfly Portfolio with a Boglehead's Three-Fund Portfolio using the tools at Portfolio Visualizer. Here is a link to that analysis:
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=4&startYear=1972&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&asset1=Gold&allocation1_1=16&asset2=LargeCapGrowth&allocation2_1=14&asset3=SmallCapValue&allocation3_1=14&asset4=LargeCapBlend&asset5=LongTreasury&allocation5_1=26&asset6=TotalBond&asset7=TreasuryBills&allocation7_1=6&asset8=TotalStockMarket&allocation8_2=40&asset9=Commodities&asset10=TotalBond&allocation10_2=40&asset11=ShortTreasury&asset12=IntlStockMarket&allocation12_1=14&allocation12_2=20&asset13=IntermediateTreasury&asset14=REIT&allocation14_1=10
    The Golden Ratio is a conservative portfolio that is designed for medium to long-term needs. It is based on the mathematical golden ratio known to the ancients, which is approximately 1.618 and is represented by the Greek letter phi. It is comprised of five asset classes in seven funds that are weighted by successive applications of the golden ratio: 42% stocks (split into 14% large cap growth (VUG), 14% small cap value (VIOV) and 14% low volatility (USMV)), 26% long-term treasury bonds (TLT), 16% gold (GLDM), 10% REITs (REET) and 6% money market (SPAXX), Since 1970, it has a compounded annual growth rate (after inflation) of 7.0%, and an expected permanent safe withdrawal rate of 5.0%.

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    Episode 16: Which Bonds Are Right For Your Risk-Parity Style Portfolio? A Comprehensive Analysis (Part 2) Sep 16, 2020
    Show notes

    In this episode, which is Part Two of Two, we continue our discussion from Episode 14 (Part 1), and conclude our analysis bonds as an investment using David Stein's 10 Questions to Master Investing, which are:
    1. What is it?
    2. Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
    3. What is the upside?
    4. What is the downside?
    5. Who is on the other side of the trade?
    6. What is the investment vehicle?
    7. What does it take to be successful?
    8. Who is getting a cut?
    9. How does it impact your portfolio?
    10. Should you invest?
    We cover the last five questions in this episode.
    Here are the links referenced in the episode
    The correlation matrix of bond funds: https://tinyurl.com/y4x3jynu
    Dan Huffman's Ultimate KI$$ portfolio with treasury bonds: https://keepinvestingsimplestupid.com/the-ultimate-ki-portfolio-with-bonds/?fbclid=IwAR3UAmCo9zLVFc5LuIjQd3pjX9MtsMbVGlu9OiNQbK7jFS8le7GzXOlLyTM
    The Swanson portfolio: https://keepinvestingsimplestupid.com/the-swanson-portfolio/?fbclid=IwAR17CTGmCrrxsMfyI3mt0wuFBmMJunpiivyBlom62bO2_9C0m5O61aL8C8I
    The prospectus for TLT: https://www.ishares.com/us/library/stream-document?stream=reg&product=ISHT20&shareClass=NA&documentId=925887%7E925803%7E926213%7E925554%7E925655&iframeUrlOverride=%2Fus%2Fliterature%2Fprospectus%2Fp-ishares-20-plus-year-treasury-bond-etf-2-28.pdf
    The fact sheet for TLT: https://www.ishares.com/us/literature/fact-sheet/tlt-ishares-20-year-treasury-bond-etf-fund-fact-sheet-en-us.pdf
    A chocolate vinegar cake recipe: https://www.bonappetit.com/test-kitchen/inside-our-kitchen/article/chocolate-vinegar-cake-recipe
    Risk parity sample portfolios page: https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios

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    Episode 15: Portfolio Reviews As Of September 11, 2020 And A Comparison Of The Golden Butterfly Portfolio With The Boglehead's Three-Fund Portfolio Sep 13, 2020
    Show notes

    This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
    We also compare the Golden Butterfly Portfolio with a Boglehead's Three-Fund Portfolio using the tools at Portfolio Visualizer. Here is a link to that analysis:
    https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-asset-class-allocation?s=y&mode=1&timePeriod=4&startYear=1972&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=5.0&relativeDeviation=25.0&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&asset1=Gold&allocation1_1=20&asset2=LargeCapGrowth&asset3=SmallCapValue&allocation3_1=20&asset4=LargeCapBlend&asset5=LongTreasury&allocation5_1=20&asset6=TotalBond&asset7=TreasuryBills&asset8=TotalStockMarket&allocation8_1=20&allocation8_2=40&asset9=Commodities&asset10=TotalBond&allocation10_2=40&asset11=ShortTreasury&allocation11_1=20&asset12=IntlStockMarket&allocation12_2=20&asset13=IntermediateTreasury
    For reference, the Golden Butterfly Portfolio is the brainchild of Tyler, the founder and operator of the website www.portfoliocharts.com. It is a conservative portfolio and is comprised of four asset classes in five funds that are equally weighted: 20% total U.S. stock market (VTI), 20% small cap value stocks (VIOV), 20% long-term treasury bonds (TLT), 20% short term treasury bonds (SHY) and 20% gold (GLDM). Since 1970, it has a compounded annual growth rate (after inflation) of 6.4%, and an expected permanent safe withdrawal rate of 5.3%.

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    Episode 14: Which Bonds Are Right For Your Risk-Parity Style Portfolio? A Comprehensive Analysis (Part I) Sep 09, 2020
    Show notes

    In this episode, which is Part One of Two, we begin our analysis of bonds as an investment using David Stein's 10 Questions to Master Investing, which are:
    1. What is it?
    2. Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
    3. What is the upside?
    4. What is the downside?
    5. Who is on the other side of the trade?
    6. What is the investment vehicle?
    7. What does it take to be successful?
    8. Who is getting a cut?
    9. How does it impact your portfolio?
    10. Should you invest?
    We cover the first five questions in this episode.
    Here is the link to the correlation matrix referenced in the episode:
    https://tinyurl.com/y4x3jynu
    Risk parity sample portfolios page: https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios

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    Episode 13: Portfolio Reviews As Of September 4, 2020 And Further Discussion Of The All Seasons Portfolio Sep 06, 2020
    Show notes

    This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
    We also discuss the All Seasons Portfolio in a little more depth, including why it may not be the best representative of a risk-parity style portfolio and what it is missing.
    The All Seasons portfolio is a reference portfolio that is modeled after Ray Dalio's All Weather portfolio and is described in "Money: Master the Game" by Tony Robbins. It is a very conservative portfolio that is comprised of four asset classes in five funds, allocated as follows: 30% total U.S. stock market (VTI), 40% long-term treasury bonds (TLT), 15% intermediate-term treasury bonds (VGIT) 7.5% gold (GLDM) and 7.5% commodities (PDBC). Since 1970, it has a compounded annual growth rate (after inflation) of 5.6%, and an expected permanent safe withdrawal rate of 3.8%.
    Here are the links I mentioned to theoretical risk-parity portfolios from the literature:
    Risk Parity Portfolios: Efficient Portfolios Through True Diversification: https://www.panagora.com/assets/PanAgora-Risk-Parity-Portfolios-Efficient-Portfolios-Through-True-Diversification.pdf
    Risk Parity: Silver Bullet Or A Bridge Too Far (CFA Multi-Asset Strategies Manual Chapter 4): CFA Manual Risk Parity Chapter-2018.pdf - Google Drive

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    Episode 12: Monthly Rant About Financial Mis-Wisdom (A New Feature!) And An Analysis Of Gold As An Investment Sep 03, 2020
    Show notes

    In this episode we analyze gold as an investment using David Stein's 10 Questions to Master Investing, which are:
    1. What is it?
    2. Is it an investment, a speculation, or a gamble?
    3. What is the upside?
    4. What is the downside?
    5. Who is on the other side of the trade?
    6. What is the investment vehicle?
    7. What does it take to be successful?
    8. Who is getting a cut?
    9. How does it impact your portfolio?
    10. Should you invest?
    We also discuss several bits of financial misinformation I heard on podcasts last month about small-cap value stocks and options for improving traditional 60/40 portfolios.
    Links referenced in the episode:
    Correlation analysis of small cap value funds versus the total stock market and large cap growth: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/asset-correlations?s=y&symbols=VTSMX%2C+VIGRX%2C+SLYV&timePeriod=2&tradingDays=60&months=36
    Analysis of gold versus the total stock market since 2005: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio?s=y&timePeriod=4&startYear=1985&firstMonth=1&endYear=2020&lastMonth=12&calendarAligned=true&includeYTD=false&initialAmount=10000&annualOperation=0&annualAdjustment=0&inflationAdjusted=true&annualPercentage=0.0&frequency=4&rebalanceType=1&absoluteDeviation=6.0&relativeDeviation=0.0&showYield=false&reinvestDividends=true&portfolioNames=false&portfolioName1=Portfolio+1&portfolioName2=Portfolio+2&portfolioName3=Portfolio+3&symbol1=UPRO&symbol2=TMF&symbol3=PFF&symbol4=VGIT&symbol5=VTI&allocation5_2=100&symbol6=BND&symbol7=REET&symbol8=TLT&symbol9=GLD&allocation9_1=100
    Portfoliocharts porfolio analyzer (input 100% gold yourself): https://portfoliocharts.com/portfolio/my-portfolio/
    Recent Portfolio Charts article about gold, gold miners, drivers and taxes: https://portfoliocharts.com/2020/08/21/metal-money-and-the-measurable-value-of-gold/
    Risk parity sample portfolios page: https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios

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    Episode 11: Portfolio Reviews As Of August 28, 2020 And An Explication Of The Risk Parity Ultimate Portfolio Aug 30, 2020
    Show notes

    This is our weekly portfolio review of the portfolios you can find at: https://www.riskparityradio.com/portfolios
    We also discuss the Risk Parity Ultimate Portfolio in depth, including how it was constructed and how it compares with a classic 60/40 retirement portfolio comprised of VTI (60%) and BND (40%).
    The Risk Parity Ultimate is a conservative portfolio that is designed for medium and long-term needs. It is comprised of 12 different funds in six different asset classes: 40% stock funds (split into 12.5% VUG, 12.5% VIOV, 6.25% USMV, 6.25% SPLV and 2.5% UPRO), 25% long-term treasury bond funds (split into 15% TLT, 5% EDV and 5% TMF), 12.5% preferred stock funds (PFF), 10% gold (GLDM), 10% REITs (REET) and 2.5% in a stock market volatility tracking fund (VXX). Here is a link to the analyzer we used to compare the Risk Parity Ultimate Portfolio with a classic 60/40 retirement portfolio: https://www.portfoliovisualizer.com/backtest-portfolio

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