Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Latest Episodes:

Credit and the COVID Mushroom Cloud: DB- Nov 11, 2020 Nov 11, 2020

Show notes

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, and managing editor, Ed Harrison, break down the pausing of the rotation out of growth and into value as cases and hospitalization in the U.S. surge to unseen levels. Ash breaks down Bill Ackman’s hedge against investment grade credit, and Ed explores how much central bank liquidity there is on the sidelines waiting to buoy asset prices. The pair also discuss taxes, the outcome of the U.S. elections, as well as Ed’s upcoming interview with Michael Howell. In the intro, editor Jack Farley looks at credit spreads and gives a sneak peek of Real Vision’s upcoming interview series with investing legends such as Jeremy Grantham, Jim Grant, Jim Chanos, Kiril Sokoloff, Sam Zell, Chamath Palihapitiya, Hugh Hendry, Raoul Pal, Kyle Bass, and Russell Napier.

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Market Euphoria: This Year's Trading Patterns Coming Undone Nov 11, 2020

Show notes

Senior editor, Ash Bennington, joins Tony Greer, editor of the Morning Navigator, to examine the latest euphoric episode in markets. Greer discusses how the rotation in the markets demonstrates their renewed focus on a post-pandemic world as the pattern from the last several months of trading is coming undone. He shares his thoughts on the appropriate balance of a political perspective to a market outlook, where inflation will begin to crop up under a Biden administration, and trades he’s paying attention to in energy, tech, commodities, and more. In the intro, Real Vision's Haley Draznin looks at how the markets have reacted to potential vaccine news and how big tech companies across the globe, like Amazon and Alibaba, have become a major focus for regulators.

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Daily Briefing Ask Me Anything Nov 09, 2020

Show notes

NOTE: THIS DAILY BRIEFING WAS FILMED THURSDAY, NOVEMBER 5. Fielding questions from Real Vision subscribers, senior editor, Ash Bennington, and managing editor, Ed Harrison, analyze how the various outcomes of the 2020 U.S. election will impact markets. Ash and Ed talk about the future of Real Vision content, price action across bitcoin, bonds, and equities, and the likely underperformance of the 60/40 portfolio should the economy enter a cyclical downturn. Ash and Ed analyze how the prospect of divided government (i.e., a Biden presidency coinciding with a Republican senate) will affect earnings potential and fiscal stimulus. They also share their views on potential cabinets picks for the next U.S. President.

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Optimism for a Digital Future Amid Harsh Economic Realities: The Interview w/ Raoul Pal Nov 08, 2020

Show notes

Howard Lindzon, general partner at Social Leverage, tells Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal why he is bullish on the digital future of business despite acknowledging the harsh economic realities that have emerged since COVID. Lindzon argues that there is a shortage of investible opportunities to capitalize on this trend and this is what we are seeing in stretched tech valuations. He also discusses how he has bet on the democratization of finance with his investments in StockTwits, Robinhood, and eToro and explains why he is still not sold on crypto despite being exposed to the space. Filmed on September 28, 2020.

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The Gold Bull Market Is Only in the Fourth Inning: The Interview (w/ Kiril Sokoloff and Raoul Pal ) Nov 07, 2020

Show notes

Kiril Sokoloff sits down with Raoul Pal to discuss why he believes the bull market for precious metals is only in its fourth inning. All-in costs of gold production are under $1000 compared to the current price of $1900, creating profit margins never seen before in the industry. In effect, the gold mining companies have become free-cash flow machines. With US federal deficits growing as far as the eye can see, and the US owing more to the rest of the world than any nation in history, a dollar crisis is brewing, which will launch gold on the next leg of its bull market.

Filmed on October 16, 2020. Key Learnings: Gold and gold miners are under-owned, misunderstood, and the beneficiary of many other current economic and financial trends.

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Dissecting the Narratives: What Markets Are Anticipating in the Coming Weeks Nov 06, 2020

Show notes

Managing editor, Ed Harrison, and senior editor, Ash Bennington, review this past week’s “everything rally” and key macro indicators against the backdrop of political uncertainty and COVID-19. Ed explains the two different narratives around the market rally — either the markets’ growing comfort over a split government or the markets had priced in more chaos that hasn’t yet come to fruition. He then also breaks down the narrative of a backpedaling economic recovery that the bond market and the macro indicators such as the ISM reports and jobs reports are reinforcing. Ash and Ed also touch on whether we’ll return to a high hospitalization and death rate with the resurgence of COVID-19 cases and reiterates how the social response and the durable changes to demand are not driven by policy alone. In the intro, Real Vision’s Haley Draznin walks us through the October jobs report, how it exceeded expectations and its impact on the markets.

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Daily Briefing - Nov 5, 2020 Nov 05, 2020

Show notes

Managing editor, Ed Harrison, is joined by Jay Pelosky, co-founder and CIO of TPW Investment Management, to provide an update on his current outlook amid a turbulent election and uncertain future with stimulus and COVID-19. Pelosky argues that markets are getting closer to end of this period of peak uncertainty around these variables and that deep cyclicals like airlines and oil will rally sharply higher. Pelosky also explains that as the election race comes to a close, markets have been oversold in the past week and are becoming more comfortable with the idea of a split government as investors gain clarity. He digs further into the question of stimulus - a matter of “when,” not “if” - and contends that a vaccine may roll out sooner than stimulus, which would cause the markets to react aggressively, raise rates, and could set up a rotation trade out of tech and into cyclicals. Finally, he also discusses asset allocation and his thesis of a tripolar world. In the intro, Real Vision's Haley Draznin looks at markets rallying as the U.S. presidential election outcome is still uncertain and analyzes the K-shaped recovery that continues to form as the job market remains high.

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Too Early to the Party? Market Rallies and Election Anxiety: DB- NOV 4, 2020 Nov 04, 2020

Show notes

In light of the market rally along with election uncertainty today, Ash Bennington & Ed Harrison ask, "just what exactly are the markets celebrating?"

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U.S. Election: Gamma Baptism of Fire: DB- NOV 3, 2020 Nov 03, 2020

Show notes

Real Vision senior editor Ash Bennington welcomes Hari Krishnan, head of volatility strategies at SCT Capital, to break down the hidden forces driving markets on U.S. election day. Disagreeing with the linear narratives about how election results impact markets, Krishnan instead analyzes the market plumbing, looking at the trend spike in the Federal Reserve’s balance sheet, interest rate volatility, and the likely forced selling options dealers’ will have to conduct should the S&P 500 start to show weakness. After Krishnan shares with Bennington his theory explaining the “kink” in the VIX futures curve, he imparts the following advice to traders: “never panic.” In the intro, reporter Haley Draznin breaks down investor optimism in global equities, the impact of high turnout of U.S. voters, and the halting of Ant Group’s massive I.P.O.

Recorded on Nov 3, 2020.

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Calm Before the Storm: DB- Nov 2, 2020 Nov 02, 2020

Show notes

Real Vision senior editor, Ash Bennington, welcomes Tommy Thornton, president of Hedge Fund Telemetry, to break down his framework for trading markets as the U.S. Presidential election rapidly approaches. Thornton looks at market sentiment and trader positioning, concluding that investors are net long this market, which limits upside potential, with extremely low short interest. Bennington and Thornton explore price action in European markets and look forward to vaccine news. Thornton then describes several trades he sees in cannabis and coffee, advising viewers on the value of holding dry powder as well as not getting sucked into narratives. In the intro, editor Jack Farley takes a look at Europe’s lockdowns, election odds, and price action in the credit markets.

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