Real Vision: Finance & Investing

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The Central Bank Digital Currency Paradigm Shift: The Interview Nov 21, 2020

Show notes

Bill Campbell, portfolio manager for Global Bond Strategy at DoubleLine Capital, sits down with Ed Harrison to discuss how he is making sense of the massive paradigm shift to central bank digital currencies. Campbell argues that central banks are late to the party as over 95% of global transactions are already digital, and together they explore the potential for bilateral digital currency settlement to replace the SWIFT system and put downward pressure on the dollar. They also discuss how CBDCs could upend the banking system as traditional revenue centers like cross border payments and custody of assets are muscled in on by central banks. Campbell also touches on how CBDCs could change the way that fiscal and monetary policy is conducted, leading to even more debasement of fiat money and why he thinks there is still one final move lower for yields left in the bond market. Filmed on October 30, 2020. Bill Campbell has written extensively on the topic and viewers can find links to his two most recent papers here: https://doubleline.com/dl/wp-content/uploads/Bilateral-Digital-Currency-Payments-October-2020.pdf and https://doubleline.com/2020/10/the-pandoras-box-of-central-bank-digital-currencies-bill-campbell-october-2020/. Key Learnings: Central bank digital currencies are visible on the horizon, and their roll-out will have a huge effect on how monetary and fiscal policy are conducted, the viability of the banking system as it exists today, and the way that global trade is settled and the value of the U.S. dollar.

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The Economics of Common Sense: The Interview Nov 20, 2020

Show notes

With a phenomenal investment track record greater than perhaps even Warren Buffett and George Soros, Joel Greenblatt is renowned as one of the world's greatest investors in history. Yet recently, he has turned his gaze beyond markets to focus his attention on fixing problems in society, ranging from banking and retirement to education and even immigration. In this interview with managing editor Ed Harrison, Greenblatt discusses his common sense solutions to society's ills, using the same analytical framework that brought him tremendous success in the investment world. Greenblatt also shares his investment philosophy and current market outlook. Recorded on October 19, 2020.

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Is A Double-Dip Recession On The Horizon?: DB- Nov19, 2020 Nov 20, 2020

Show notes

Real Vision managing editor Ed Harrison is joined by editor Jack Farley to break down the economic impact of the partial lockdowns U.S. officials are implementing day-by-day as cases and deaths from COVID-19 spiral out of control. Ed evaluates the latest rise in joblessness claims, the exponential increase in hospitalizations, the looming expiration of the CARES Act, and the Fed’s emergency lending programs, ultimately concluding that a double-dip recession in the U.S. could be on the horizon. Lastly, Jack and Ed discuss China’s first negative-yielding bond (denominated in Euros) as well as Bitcoin’s continued surge. In the intro, Haley Draznin looks at the increase in U.S. jobless claims filed this week and its broader implications on the markets.

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Tesla, Banks, Bonds, and Bitcoin: DB - Nov18, 2020 Nov 19, 2020

Show notes

Real Vision Managing editor Ed Harrison hosts Tommy Thornton, founder of Hedge Fund Telemetry, to discuss the opportunities and risks on the investment horizon. Tommy explores whether the ongoing rotation into value will continue, sharing his views on sectors such as energy, financials, and retail. He and Ed then investigate whether bonds’ rally is a harbinger of trouble for stocks, and how various asset classes such as gold and bitcoin perform should there be a major selloff in the equity market. Lastly, Tommy discusses why he remains bearish on Tesla despite its significant rally, and shares his fundamental analysis of the electric vehicle maker as well as his framework for managing risk. In the intro, editor Jack Farley looks at oil futures, vaccine progress, and MTA’s woes.

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A Technical Framework for Trading Ambivalent Markets: DB- Nov17, 2020 Nov 17, 2020

Show notes

Real Vision senior editor, Ash Bennington, welcomes Dave Floyd of Aspen Trading Group back to the Daily Briefing to evaluate price action in the S&P 500, the U.S. 10 year Treasury note, and a variety of currency pairs. Dave shares his framework for trading these asset classes, incorporating technical indicators such as moving averages, stochastic oscillators, relative strength indicators, Fibonacci retracement levels as well as some proprietary trading signals from Aspen Trading Group. Dave and Ash discuss how the relationship between price to volume can reveal “footprints” in various markets to identify inflection points. Finally, Dave shares his own views on the psychology of trading such as knowing when to be cautious and when to pull the trigger. Real Vision's Haley Draznin explains why the markets fell on Tuesday after record highs on Monday, looking closely at the timeline for a vaccine, uptick in coronavirus cases, Tesla moving to the S&P 500 from the Nasdaq, and US retail sales missing expectations. To sign-up to Real Vision to watch these interviews, click here: https://www.realvision.com/paradigm-shift

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The Vaccine Rally: DB- Nov16, 2020 Nov 16, 2020

Show notes

Real Vision managing editor, Ed Harrison, and senior editor, Ash Bennington, discuss the all-time highs being set in the S&P 500 and the Dow Jones Industrial Average as the news of Moderna’s vaccine being 94.5% effective in preventing COVID-19 breathes life into U.S. equities. Ed evaluates the price action through his risk-on framework, exploring the possibility that record cash on the sidelines, held by central banks, households, as well as private equity firms, could further buoy markets. He and Ash then discuss how the increasing lockdowns across the U.S. will likely stymie growth, weighing how these opposing forces will impact markets going forward. In the intro, Jack Farley reviews price action in equity and volatility markets and shows a clip from Mike Green’s interview with Jim Chanos, the first interview in Real Vision's series “Paradigm Shift: Investment Ideas for a World in Flux.” To sign-up to Real Vision to watch these interviews, click here: https://www.realvision.com/paradigm-shift

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Dueling Perspectives On China's Economic Reality Nov 15, 2020

Show notes

Michael Pettis, senior fellow at the Carnegie-Tsinghua Center for Global Policy, and Kyle Bass of Hayman Capital Management are both keenly focused on the complex task of discerning China's economic reality. In this interview, Bass and Pettis attack the important issues of capital flight, China's massive economic inequality, and their domestic debt burden, just to name a few. They both tend to agree on what is most important, but not always the takeaway from the data. It is the nuanced differences in their interpretations of the current state of affairs that had even Kyle Bass remarking at how much he was able to take away from this enlightening and pleasantly civil back and forth. Recorded on October 7, 2020.

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Jeffrey Gundlach -- Waiting for the Next Big Trade Nov 14, 2020

Show notes

Jeffrey Gundlach, CEO of DoubleLine Capital, has evolved his investment style over the years, and although he is still the "bond king", increasingly he has become multi-asset with a focus on getting the macro right. In this interview with Real Vision CEO Raoul Pal, Gundlach explains how he thinks about time frames, position sizing based on asset class, and how his style changes based on whether the market is alpha or beta driven. He also provides his current outlook, arguing that there is not much opportunity in this environment and that the most important thing at the moment is managing risk while patiently waiting for the next big trade. He also touches on timely topics like the potential for a wave of insolvency, why he believes we are in the midst of The Fourth Turning, his skeptical view of bitcoin, and why he is bullish on the dollar in the short term despite his highest conviction macro view being pronounced dollar weakness. Recorded on October 1, 2020.

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The Next Phase: DB- Nov13, 2020 Nov 14, 2020

Show notes

Real Vision CEO, Raoul Pal, and senior editor, Ash Bennington, discuss the growing shutdown measures in the U.S. even as the S&P 500 makes all-time highs. Looking at declining mobility data, Pal explores how the prospect of a full lockdown in the U.S will depress economic activity as well as perhaps markets. He and Ash then discuss default risk and the stock sales of Pfizer’s CEO before zooming out into macro issues such as how stagnant money velocity affects retirees and how rise in the monetary base could buoy precious metals and bitcoin. In the intro, Jack Farley reviews price action, evaluates the distress of cruise liners, and the looming expiration of the Fed’s emergency lending programs.

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Is The Value Rotation "Over": DB- Nov 12, 2020 Nov 12, 2020

Show notes

Real Vision managing editor, Ed Harrison, is joined by editor, Jack Farley, to break down a day of heavy selling across sectors as COVID-19 cases surge to unseen levels. Ed interprets what the Citigroup Economic Surprise Index means and shares his views on how, shutdown or not, the rise of coronavirus will likely depress economic activity. Ed and Jack discuss the flattening of the U.S. Treasury yield and the heavy selling of value equities, with Jack asking Ed whether the rotation into value will resurge or is in fact over. After quickly reviewing price action in volatility markets, Ed and Jack give a sneak peek of the “Paradigm Shift: Investment Ideas for a World in Flux” featuring Jim Chanos, Mike Green, Chamath Palihapitiya, Hugh Hendry, Kyle Bass, Jeremy Grantham, Jim Grant, William White, and many other legends of the investment world. In the intro, Peter Cooper explores the current state of the coronavirus epidemic in the States and reviews the jobless claims report that came out today. For the charts that Ed and Jack discuss, click here: https://rvtv.io/3lrQLY0.

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