Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Latest Episodes:

Will Commodity Prices Drive Inflation Even Higher? Mar 15, 2022

Show notes

It’s safe to say the macro environment is unsettled right now, to an extent not seen in decades, and financial markets are correspondingly volatile. Crude oil prices are now down nearly 30% from recent highs, as investors weigh the demand impact of new COVID-19 lockdowns in China against supply constraints owing to the Russia-Ukraine war. Wheat has also backed off but is still up nearly 40% since Russia invaded Ukraine. The Labor Department reported this morning that the Producer Price Index for February was up 10% year over year and 0.8% month over month, as recent spikes for energy and food inputs promise a “faster for longer” rate of rise. Still, the major U.S. equity indexes were all trading more than 1% higher through midday. This is all prelude to Wednesday’s monetary policy announcement by the Federal Open Market Committee. Inflation is the main enemy for the Federal Reserve. But global stress – heightened by reported talks between Saudi Arabia and China about the former accepting the yuan in payment for oil rather than the U.S. dollar – must be weighing on Jerome Powell and company. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of The Morning Navigator, joins Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, to discuss the impact of war in Eastern Europe on commodity and financial markets and how policymakers are likely to try to manage it all. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3KKXSai

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Will We Sacrifice Growth on the Altar of Inflation? Mar 14, 2022

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Sellers took control of the major U.S. equity indexes after lunchtime Monday and bond yields continued to climb, as investors await the Federal Reserve’s first move to boost its federal funds rate target later this week. Crude oil has sold off by nearly 25% from near-term highs, though inflationary pressures remain the central bank’s primary concern, even as the war in Eastern Europe shows no signs of ending anytime soon. The Fed must be mindful, however, that the economy was already slowing before Russia invaded Ukraine, notes Daniel Lacalle, chief economist at Tressis. And Josh Lipsky, director of the Atlantic Council’s GeoEconomics center, points out that Russia’s economic contraction in a matter of weeks is comparable to the Great Depression, which took place over a number of years. China is another wild card, as its tech sector continues to sell off and officials are announcing new COVID-19 lockdowns. The Middle Kingdom’s role in the Russia-Ukraine war is also generating heated speculation. Lacalle and Lipsky join Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing, where they’ll discuss geopolitics, monetary policy, and markets. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3KLveFJ

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An Update From Raoul on the Geopolitical Situation and What It Means for Investors Mar 14, 2022

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In this special update, co-founder and CEO of Real Vision Raoul Pal shares with us how he’s approaching the market amid this incredibly chaotic environment. Raoul outlines several scenarios for how the Russia-Ukraine situation could play out and breaks down what war in Easern Europe means for gold, bonds, oil, and, yes, even crypto. Raoul also explains why he thinks the U.S. dollar is now more of a liability than an asset and forecasts the Federal Reserve’s next moves. This is another can’t-miss presentation that will help you understand how Raoul is thinking as he navigates these turbulent times. Recorded on March 6, 2022.

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Volatility: The Tail That Wags the Dog Mar 13, 2022

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Volatility matters — especially to Jason Buck, who runs his own volatility fund with the primary objective of building diverse portfolios that are capable of thriving in any financial forecast. Join Buck as he speaks with Anthony Scaramucci, Alex Lennard, Cem Karsan, Noel Smith and Scott Army about harnessing volatility for desired outcomes.

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The Crisis of Inflation, the Cataclysm of War, and Where We Go From Here Mar 12, 2022

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Making a long-awaited return to the Daily Briefing, Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal joins Ash Bennington to talk about inflation, economy, and, of course, the war in Eastern Europe. Governments around the world continue to react to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, with the U.S. including $13.6 billion in aid to the latter as part of a $1.5 trillion spending bill and President Joe Biden suggesting an end to the latter’s “most favored nation” trade status. In another indication of an emerging deglobalization trend, Chinese tech stocks suffered their worst decline since October 2008 on increased regulatory scrutiny and fears of delisting from American exchanges. Raoul and Ash discuss the U.S. dollar, global trade, and the rising profile of cryptocurrency amid what remains the most interesting times most of us have yet experienced. Get your questions ready for Raoul, and drop them on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3pYiJyO

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Volatility Defines Markets Right Now Mar 11, 2022

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The U.S. Department of Labor reported this morning that the Consumer Price Index increased 7.9% during the 12 months through February, another fresh 40-year high. And that measure doesn’t account for the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on energy and food commodities. Crude oil prices have backed off 13-year highs on news the United Arab Emirates would support production increases by fellow OPEC members. And wheat futures have also retreated from 14-year highs. The European Central Bank acknowledged the threat of inflation to economic growth by announcing an earlier-than-expected withdrawal of monetary stimulus. Equity markets remain volatile, which can be helpful for options specialists like today’s Daily Briefing guest Imran Lakha. Lakha, the founder of Options Insight, joins Real Vision’s Alfonso Peccatiello to talk about inflation, how central banks plan to address it, and the role cryptocurrency and gold can play in mitigating its effects on investors’ portfolios. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/34A0gRK

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Will the U.S. Get a Digital Dollar? Mar 10, 2022

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Global equity markets surged Wednesday on reports Ukraine is open to negotiating a compromise with Russia. Kyiv made clear it would discuss neutrality with Moscow but that it would not give up territory. Prices for commodities, including crude oil, natural gas, and wheat retreated. Gold, a favorite of today’s Real Vision Daily Briefing guest Jared Dillian, also backed off recent highs. Meanwhile, the Biden administration is establishing a cryptocurrency policy, with the president issuing an executive order directing federal agencies to work together around six key areas: consumer and investor protection; financial stability; illicit activity; U.S. competitiveness on a global stage; financial inclusion; and responsible innovation. The Department of Labor reported there were 5 million more job openings than available workers in January, another sign of a historically tight employment situation in the U.S. Dillian, editor of The Daily Dirtnap, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to talk about Eastern Europe, gold, digital assets, and inflation pressures. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/366SvTO

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Will Choking Off Russian Energy Sales Change the Course of the War? Mar 09, 2022

Show notes

U.S. equity indexes rallied early Tuesday, even as spiraling commodity prices promise even more upward pressure on inflation. Highlighting the day’s events was nickel soaring past the $100,000-per-metric-ton mark, which led the London Metal Exchange to suspend trading in the key input for stainless steel. Soon after President Joe Biden announced that the U.S. would ban imports of Russian oil, natural gas, and coal effective immediately, the U.K. government said it would phase out Russian oil and oil products by the end of 2022. Shell declared it would stop all purchases of Russian crude and shutter its service stations in Russia, while Germany’s Uniper, a major buyer of Russian gas, said it won’t sign any new contracts for long-term supply. West Texas Intermediate crude traded as high as $128 per barrel, Brent hit $132, and European natural gas prices remained near record highs. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro and editor of The Morning Navigator joins Warren Pies, founder of 3Fourteen Research, to discuss the impact of the Russia-Ukraine war on commodity and financial markets. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3MwxnH7

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Bill Browder on What's Next for Russia Mar 08, 2022

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Re-pricing in the aftermath of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine remains the dominant theme across global financial markets, with energy and food supplies top-of-mind for investors and policymakers alike. West Texas Intermediate crude reached levels last seen in 2008 on reports the U.S. federal government is actively considering a ban on Russian oil imports. Wheat is also trading at decade-and-a-half highs. And European natural gas has surged 79% since the onset of war. Squeezing Vladimir Putin seems the international community’s primary strategy right now. According to Bill Browder, a longtime nemesis of the Russian president, “The only way we can stop Putin is to starve him of resources.” Browder, co-founder and CEO of Hermitage Capital Management and the leader of the Global Magnitsky Justice Campaign, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to address Russia’s invasion of Ukraine and to assess the impact of coordinated international sanctions on Putin’s government, the oligarchs who support him, and the Russian economy. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3ClhVc6

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Trading Geopolitical Risk Part 2 Mar 07, 2022

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Host- Weston Nakamura

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