Real Vision: Finance & Investing

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No Going Back: The Post-Pandemic Economy Apr 03, 2022

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In the wake of the pandemic, Jim Bianco believes that “there is a wholesale change underway in the economy.” But is it all doom and gloom from here? Not necessarily. We appear to be in a period of transition, which, historically, has also been a catalyst for economic progression. Bianco introduces Martin Fleming, Michael Drury, and Sal Mercogliano to discuss the changes we’re experiencing today, how they're impacting the economy, and what the future could begin to look like. Recorded on March 13, 2022

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The Realities of Positioning for a Pandemic Apr 02, 2022

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Positioning for a crisis is no easy feat but Mike Green was one of the few traders that was able to profit during the pandemic while others were left asking the same question: “what the hell is going on?” While Green was positioned well for the pandemic, it wasn’t all plain sailing. Just what are the psychological aspects of trading in situations like these? In addition to describing his philosophy at the time, Green reveals his state of mind during the pandemic and some of the methods that helped him stay level-headed while “constantly” second-guessing trades during a period of rampant uncertainty. Filmed on January 20, 2022

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How To Make Sense of All These Inflationary Pressures Apr 02, 2022

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Real Vision co-founder and CEO Raoul Pal joins Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about volatility across markets, the economy, and geopolitics. Stocks closed out their first losing quarter in two years on Thursday, and U.S. bonds had their worst three-month period in more than 40 years. The eurozone’s inflation rate jumped to another record high in March. Although prices dipped for the fifth straight day today, crude oil is 44.7% higher than it was a year ago, up 32% in February alone. The U.S. economy once again added more than 400,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate dropped to 3.6%, but companies across many industries say they’re struggling to find workers. And war continues to rage in Eastern Europe. What’s Raoul’s take? Get your questions ready, and drop them on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3x1pDYm

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Will Crude Oil Constraints Continue To Drive Inflation? Apr 01, 2022

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President Joe Biden announced a plan to release from the U.S. Strategic Petroleum Reserve 1 million barrels of oil per day for the next six months as part of the federal government’s effort to fight inflation. Releasing 180 million barrels from the SPR is an unprecedented step. But it’s unclear whether it will have a meaningful impact on oil prices. Earlier Thursday, OPEC+ ratified a 432,000 barrel per day production increase as of May, but that increase is in line with the cartel’s plan; it is not responding to oil consumers’ calls for significant output boosts. Oil investors everywhere seem to be holding the line for only gradual production increases, despite the ongoing crisis in Eastern Europe. Bart Melek, Global Head of Commodity Markets Strategy at TD Securities, joins Real Vision’s Ash Bennington to discuss the global crude oil market, current constraints on production and supply, and inflation. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3IV7RbE

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What's Wrong With the Yen, and Why Is It Important? Mar 31, 2022

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The Japanese yen, long a safe haven, is not reacting to crisis this time around the way it has in the past. In fact, the yen just broke through a key long-term level of technical support and is trading at six-year lows versus the U.S. dollar. But Governor Haruhiko Kuroda continues to defend the Bank of Japan’s yield cap, in place to sustain accommodative monetary policy, despite broader risks to the domestic situation. Our man in Japan, Weston Nakamura, joins Maggie Lake to assess the global implications of the country’s continuing efforts to stimulate growth in the world’s third-largest economy. Then, Maggie welcomes Darius Dale, founder and CEO of 42 Macro, to talk about the Federal Reserve’s fight against inflation, the impact of tighter policy on the housing market, and the employment situation in the U.S. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/36Zk3uw

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Is the Market Pricing In Peace? Mar 30, 2022

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Although no formal agreements have been reached, Moscow has said it will redeploy troops and reduce military activity around Kyiv, and Ukraine has said it will adopt a neutral stance in exchange for a Russian ceasefire, stoking optimism the end of the war in Eastern Europe is in sight. Delegates from Russia and Ukraine met face-to-face in Istanbul Tuesday, with Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlut Cavusoglu saying the discussions had yielded the most significant progress to date. Equity indexes in Europe closed higher across the board, and U.S. stocks are holding solid gains two hours shy of the close of regular trading in New York. Meanwhile, the bond market is on course for its worst quarterly loss on record after the Federal Reserve launched its monetary tightening efforts this month and signaled the potential for more aggressive hikes. With tensions seemingly easing in Eastern Europe, inflation remains the major threat to global growth. Tony Greer, founder of TG Macro, joins Warren Pies to talk about the market’s response to Russia-Ukraine and the Fed’s response to inflation. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3Ljle6U.

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Is Recession the Only Answer to Inflation? Mar 29, 2022

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As Jared Dillian puts it, when the prices of things we need are going higher and the prices of things we want are going lower, “it creates economic misery.” Things we need include fossil fuels and agricultural commodities. Things we want include stocks and bonds. In 2022, with stock and bond prices falling and commodity prices rising, wealth has evaporated, and the cost of living has increased. And the thing is, to seriously take on rising prices, the Federal Reserve is going to have to accelerate its monetary tightening cycle. “In order to stop inflation,” writes Dillian, “the Fed will have to engineer a recession.” We’re starting to see indications from sections of the yield curve that a downturn is imminent – for example, the yield on the five-year U.S. Treasury note exceeded the yield on the 30-year bond earlier today. Stocks, meanwhile, have enjoyed a two-week rally. Is there a way out for the Fed that doesn’t include recession? Dillian, author of The Daily Dirtnap, joins Real Vision’s Maggie Lake for today’s Daily Briefing to talk about the Fed, interest rates, economic misery, and recession. Want to submit questions? Drop them right here on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3IMaiNH

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Gold Mine: Creating Value Through Entrepreneurship Mar 27, 2022

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Raising capital for small companies is a difficult and time-consuming process — legendary entrepreneur Ross Beaty, chairman of Equinox Gold, emphasizes the importance of having tenacity and adaptability to change strategy when things don’t pan out. From a lifelong journey of building up businesses and investing, he chats with his long-time friend and fellow investor Rick Rule, president and CEO of Rule Investment Media, to share the lessons Beaty learned in the energy and mining space. The pair examine the changing capital and scale requirements of companies today in a market where long-term value creation is of utmost importance. Filmed on October 6, 2021.

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Making Sense of Massive Change Mar 26, 2022

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Russell Clark, one of Real Vision’s favorite guest-personalities, returns for another engrossing conversation with Raoul Pal. Russell always brings fresh perspectives, and Raoul is always keen to draw on his current thinking to help make sense of what’s happening around us. In short, Russell’s current sense is that everything has changed. In a far-ranging conversation, Russell and Raoul weigh the impact of innovations such as extracting oil and gas from shale, the ongoing center-of-gravity shift from capital to labor, and the vulnerabilities of centralized risk management. Russell notes that clearing houses are now the center of trading activity; they price risk differently than central banks, and he describes how that works and how that doesn't work. “The collateral,” says Russell, “can never go bust.” The world is changing, rapidly. This is a great way to catch up. To read more of Russell's work, visit www.russell-clark.com. Recorded on March 1, 2022.

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How Fragile Is the Global Funding System? Mar 26, 2022

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Inflation is at four-decade highs in the U.S., and supply constraints caused by the war in Eastern Europe only increase upward pressure on crucial commodities. The Federal Reserve is laser-focused on the issue, to the point where futures markets are now pricing in more than nine rate hikes in 2022. And the yield on the 10-year U.S. Treasury note hit a two-year high on Friday, reaching 2.503% on expectations of aggressive tightening ahead. Still, the Fed is sticking with a relatively robust growth forecast. Investors are clear on the Fed’s path. It remains to be seen how Chinese policymakers will respond to threats to growth and stability. As the world continues to respond to Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, it becomes clearer that major shifts are in process. Will the Chinese yuan ever overtake the U.S. dollar in the global currency hierarchy? What role could Bitcoin play in a revamped global system? More immediately, are we on the verge of a global liquidity crisis? Michael Howell, managing director at CrossBorder Capital, joins Tony Greer to discuss these issues and more on today’s edition of Real Vision Daily Briefing. Got questions? Drop them on the Exchange: https://rvtv.io/3JGuIZz

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