Real Vision: Finance & Investing

Latest Episodes:

How Aggressive Does the Fed Need to Get? Feb 17, 2023

Show notes

U.S. stocks are sliding into the weekend, as investors contemplate the risk of sticky inflation and soaring U.S. Treasury yields. Dr. Komal Sri-Kumar, president of Sri-Kumar Global Strategies, joins Maggie Lake to break down the latest price action and discuss the monumental task facing the Fed. This is another extended Friday edition of the show, and in Part 2 Dr. Sri-Kumar will explain what’s driving central bank decisions around the globe. That will be available only to Real Vision members.We’ll also hear an update from Andreas Steno Larsen on global liquidity, and why he thinks liquidity may have already bottomed. You can watch that entire Steno’s Signals episode here: https://rvtv.io/3Itusiw

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The Battle Against Inflation is Far From Over Feb 16, 2023

Show notes

U.S. producer prices (PPI) rose 0.7% in January, calling into question the prevailing disinflation narrative for the second time this week. Maggie Lake is joined by Peter Boockvar, the CIO of Bleakly Advisory Group, to help break down all the latest inflation data and discuss the Fed’s chances at navigating any sort of soft landing. We’ll also hear from Andreas Steno Larsen on why it’s so important to pay attention to the NFIB price plan survey when it comes to pricing pressure. You can watch that full interview here: https://rvtv.io/3Itusiw

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Is the Options Market Calling Off Recession? Feb 15, 2023

Show notes

U.S. retail sales numbers came in much stronger than expected after yesterday’s still-sticky inflation print. The stock market remains range-bound as investors consider the next directional catalyst. Imran Lakha, founder of Options Insight, joins Andreas Steno Larsen for a look under the hood at what’s driving the price action. Imran is an options expert, so he’ll share why volatility has collapsed of late, what bonds and gold are signaling, and how traders are positioning into March. We’ll also hear from Damian Horner and Roger Hirst on the delicate balance between unemployment and recession. You can watch that entire interview here: https://rvtv.io/3YJ06h4

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Are Markets Too Complacent About Inflation? Feb 14, 2023

Show notes

U.S. inflation rose 6.4% YoY last month, down from 6.5% in December but above expectations while monthly inflation rose 0.5% — the biggest increase in 3 months. Stocks largely shrugged in response, as markets remain relatively unchanged. Elsewhere, oil futures are down after the U.S. government announced it would release more crude from its Strategic Petroleum Reserve to help alleviate concerns over Russian production cuts. Maggie Lake is joined by Tony Greer, the editor of the Morning Navigator and founder of TG Macro, to assess the market’s CPI response and discuss the latest developments in energy markets.

Plus, we’ll give you a look at Raoul Pal’s interview with David Dredge, who explains how he profits off of unexpected market events. You can watch that entire interview here: https://rvtv.io/3RSMmhO

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Markets Turn Their Gaze to CPI Feb 13, 2023

Show notes

U.S. equities pushed higher as investors look ahead to tomorrow morning’s U.S. CPI print. Ash Bennington sits down with Dave Floyd, founder of Aspen Trading Group, to discuss today’s price action and how Dave is positioning ahead of the January inflation data. Plus, Weston Nakamura will join the show with an update on what a new governor at the BOJ means for global markets, why the yen is slipping against the dollar, and how he’s trading navigating global markets.

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Beer with Tony Greer Feb 12, 2023

Show notes

In this 90-minute AMA-style show, the Morning Navigator’s editor, Tony Greer, will answer your questions directly and offer unique insights about the current macro landscape. It’s your chance to get a unique moment with TG and learn what drives his thoughts on the markets. Grab a beer or a drink and tune in for a relaxed and conversational experience with Tony, while learning from one of the industry’s leading analysts. Live streamed on February 8, 2023.

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Why You Shouldn't Get Too Comfortable Holding Risk Assets Feb 11, 2023

Show notes

Following a speech last week by FOMC member Christopher Waller, Andreas Steno Larsen presents what he calls the “Waller Rule,” which suggests that QT will either need to slow or pause if USD reserves become equal to 10-11% of U.S. GDP. He then breaks down why this potential scenario might be bad news for risk assets in the second half of 2023. Recorded on January 24, 2023.

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The Soft Landing Narrative Is a Trap (!) Feb 11, 2023

Show notes

All three major U.S. equity indices are poised to clock in losses this week as investors brace for the latest CPI print due next Tuesday. So, are investors starting to think talk of a soft landing is overdone? George Goncalves, head of U.S. macro strategy at MUFG Securities, thinks it is. In this special extended Daily Briefing he joins Andreas Steno Larsen to unpack the week’s market action and the road ahead for central bank tightening across the globe. Join to understand Goncalves’s investing framework, and be sure to subscribe to learn how he executes it in the second half of the show. We’ll also give you a peek into Real Vision's “The Knitting Show” with Roger Hirst, discussing the changing consensus view on a recession for this year. Plus and Pro members can watch that entire interview here: https://rvtv.io/3YJ06h4

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Is This Rally Just a Blip? Feb 09, 2023

Show notes

U.S. equities gave up early gains and yields pushed higher as investors assess mixed earning results and economic data ahead of next week’s January CPI print. Despite the late selloff in stocks, a weekly survey from the American Association of Individual Investors showed that investors are net bullish for the first time in nearly a year. Jared Dillian, the editor of the Daily Dirtnap, joins Maggie Lake to discuss sentiment, commodities, and more. We’ll also hear a clip from Andreas Steno Larsen on why energy is underperforming despite China’s reopening. Watch that entire interview here: https://rvtv.io/3HQOcuL

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Inflation Is the Solution Feb 08, 2023

Show notes

Federal Reserve board members continue to call for more rate hikes, a day after chairman Jay Powell reaffirmed the central bank’s commitment to higher interest rates. Markets are eager to be free of the shackles of inflationary forces and quantitative tightening, but Vincent Deluard of the StoneX Group sees the bright side of this bear market. He joins Ash Bennington to explore how this painful macro regime shift could lead to a better tomorrow.

Plus, we’ll hear a clip from Looking for the Upside, where the author Dror Poleg discusses the evolving real estate market in the era of remote work. Watch that entire interview here: https://rvtv.io/3I8OL4A

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