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Trading Like Fed Is Done, Case For Valuation Expansion, EPS Sentiment Improves Feb 07, 2023

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This week in the podcast, we touch on hot topics and interesting things that jumped out in our inbound client questions and high frequency indicators. Four big things you need to know: First, recent sector leadership within the S&P 500 is consistent with what we’ve seen in the past after final Fed rate hikes. Second, we continue to find that investors are interested in debating what kind of P/E multiple the S&P 500 deserves in light of current interest rate and inflation assumptions. With this in mind, we’ve refreshed our valuation model which makes the case for valuation expansion as inflation moderates. Third, earnings revisions trends are getting less negative for most S&P 500 sectors, suggesting that sentiment around earnings is improving at the margin, helping explain why the stock market has surged despite estimates continuing to fall in dollar terms. Fourth, we highlight what jumped out from our high frequency indicators last week. Correlations within the S&P 500 and Russell 2000 are falling, and the most popular stocks in hedge funds are outperforming – positive data points for stock pickers and broader US equity market returns.

Keeping A Close Eye on Industrial Layoffs, Case For Stocks Emerging on 2024 EPS Feb 01, 2023

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This week in the podcast, we highlight the most interesting question we got last week, some thoughts on earnings, and updates on our high frequency indicators. Three big things you need to know:

First, layoffs for Tech are spiking, a necessary step in the bottoming process for the stock market, while industrial layoffs remain low, supporting the soft landing thesis.
Second, as we combed through the earnings data, a case for stocks may be starting to emerge on 2024 EPS.
Third, we review what jumped out the most on our high frequency indicators last week in terms of sentiment, valuation, and performance, which generally supports the soft landing thesis and suggest that last week’s strong move in US equities was justified.

EPS Backdrop Continues To Soften, Transcript Takeaways, 02-03 Path Still Intact Jan 23, 2023

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Today in the podcast, we reflect on hot topics and some of the most interesting things we saw and heard last week for the early reporters and our high frequency indicators. Three big things you need to know: First, the S&P 500 earnings backdrop has continued to soften, a problem for stocks in the very near term. Second, we review key themes we’ve been seeing and reading in our transcript review – which make the case for some near-term indigestion in the market. Third, we run through key developments in our high frequency indicators – which generally tilt positive and add to our conviction that any near-term indigestion in stocks from earnings will be temporary.

Former Leaders Finally Start To Take Their Earnings Lumps Jan 18, 2023

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Two big things you need to know: First, 2023 EPS forecasts have continued to soften, with former leadership sectors like Energy finally taking their lumps by participating in the downward revision cycle. Second, S&P 500 stocks with high international revenue exposure have been outperforming domestically oriented companies, as their earnings revisions trends have improved at the same time earnings revisions trends for the domestic bucket (another former leader on performance until recently) have finally started to deteriorate.

Tax Tidbits, TIMT Damage in Context, The ISM Playbook, Small Caps' Solid Start Jan 09, 2023

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Today in the podcast, we run through some of the most interesting questions we got from US equity investors last week as 2023 got underway. Four big things you need to know: First, we’ve seen the most discussion about this year’s tax policy changes from Industrials, Financials, Energy and Utilities. Second, the three major growth/TIMT centric sectors account for almost all of the S&P 500’s decline in 2022, but the Tech sector is still a positive contributor to the index on a 3 year basis. Third, the malaise in Tech and leadership by defensive sectors may persist until the market starts to sense that a bottom in ISM manufacturing is close. Fourth, Small Caps are off to a solid start to the year. We think that will continue despite last week’s downtick in ISM manufacturing.

Thoughts on Sectors Heading Into 2023 Dec 21, 2022

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Three big things you need to know: First, our analysts have a slightly positive tilt in their outlooks for performance over the next 6-12 months, as well as on other hot topics. Second, on our survey our analysts were most constructive on the performance outlooks for Health Care and Energy, followed by Tech, Utilities, and REITs, with the weakest outlooks for Consumer Staples, Industrials, and Consumer Discretionary. Third, in terms of our own US equity strategy sector recommendations, which leverages our analysts’ views as well as our own tools, we are overweight Energy, Financials, Health Care, Utilities, and Technology, and underweight Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary.

Questions From Europe, The Pricey US, Weaker USD & China Reopening Thoughts Dec 12, 2022

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Today in the podcast, we reflect on hot topics and some of the most interesting things we saw and heard last week. Three big things you need to know: First, we run through the main topics in our conversations with European based equity investors last week. Second, expensive US valuations relative to Europe are another problem for the US equity outlook in 2023. Third, we highlight initial thoughts on potential sector beneficiaries of a weaker US Dollar and China reopening.

2023 US Equity Market Outlook - The Tug of War Continues Nov 30, 2022

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Today in the podcast, our thoughts on the 2023 outlook for the US equity market. Three big things you need to know: First, our year-end 2023 S&P 500 target of 4,100 is unchanged, though we have lowered our 2023 S&P 500 EPS forecast by roughly 4% to $199. Second, we continue to anticipate choppy conditions in US equities over the next few quarters. Third, in terms of higher-level positioning, we prefer US equities over non-US equities, Value over Growth, and Small Cap over Large Cap.

Cooling Inflation Implications, Midterm Musings, 3Q22 Reporting Season Update Nov 15, 2022

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Today in the podcast, we reflect on hot topics and some of the most interesting things we saw and heard last week. Three big things you need to know: First, we generally see last week’s cooler-than-expected inflation print as constructive for US equities, with some caveats. Second, while we see the anticipated outcome of the midterm elections as supportive of stocks, we find that we’re less excited than some as we think a divided government has been getting baked in since the mid-October lows and worry that any incremental upside in 4Q will borrow against 2023’s gains. Third, 3Q22 reporting season has revealed a softening of the earnings backdrop, with the best trends in Energy and Small Cap. Please note that Markets in Motion will be taking a break next week for Thanksgiving.

Midterm Election Survival Guide Nov 07, 2022

Show notes

In this edition of the podcast, we pull together and update our thoughts on what the event means for US equity markets. Three big things you need to know. First, we see the midterms as a modest positive for stocks if the return of Republican control is limited to the House and a bigger positive if Republicans take back control of both chambers. Second, we highlight potential sector beneficiaries if things go well for Republicans. Third, we highlight why we agree with the consensus narrative on the midterms and its stock market impact, and also run through the risks to the consensus narrative that we see.

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