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Debt Ceiling Drama Returns May 03, 2023

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This week in the podcast, we’re focusing on the debt ceiling. Two big things you need to know: First, we see debt ceiling drama as a contributor to choppiness in US equity markets later this year, though we ultimately expect a deal. This was a hot topic in our meetings with UK investors last week. Second, we see Health Care as one of the most vulnerable sectors in the short term but would be buyers on weakness.

Decent Start To 1Q23 Reporting Season In The Stats & Commentary Apr 25, 2023

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Today in the podcast, thoughts on 1Q23 reporting season which got underway last week. Two big things you need to know. First, 1Q23 reporting season has gotten off to a decent start. We review what jumps out to us on the stats so far. Second, the tone in company commentary on earnings calls has been balanced so far. We run through key themes in our reading from last week.

Stocks Have Ignored A Recession Before, Inflation Discussions Fade Apr 18, 2023

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Today in the podcast, we tackle hot topics that crossed our desk last week. Three big things you need to know: First, some US equity investors have been frustrated that the stock market seems to be ignoring an upcoming recession, but it’s happened once before. Second, we are looking forward to an earnings season dominated by new hot topics, as the discussion about inflation and its underlying sources has begun to fade in company commentary. Third, a few other things that jumped out from our high frequency indicators last week are all more tactical in nature - elevated Nasdaq futures positioning, stabilization in Banks, better earnings revisions trends for Growth than Value, and the weakening rotation into non-US equities.

Latest Analyst Survey Results; Staying Overweight Utilities, HC, Energy & Tech Apr 12, 2023

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Today in the podcast we’re talking sectors, following the release of the results of our latest RBC analyst survey which we blend with our own top-down strategy tools to arrive at our sector recommendations.

Three big things you need to know:

First, in our latest survey, taken in late March and early-April 2023, RBC’s US equity analysts were a little north of neutral in their outlooks for performance over the next 6-12 months.
Second, on the performance outlook, our analysts were most constructive on Utilities and Health Care, followed by Energy and Tech, with the weakest outlooks for Consumer Staples, Industrials, and Consumer Discretionary.
Third, the combination of our analysts’ latest views, our ESG Strategy team’s sector scorecard, and our own macro tools keep us overweight Utilities, Health Care, Energy, and Tech, and underweight Consumer Staples and Consumer Discretionary. We have also downgraded Financials to market weight.

CFO Confidence, Bond Market Volatility Eases, Holding Patterns in Key Trades Apr 04, 2023

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This week in the podcast, we run through the most interesting things that crossed our desk last week which felt like one in which the equity community collectively exhaled. Two big things you need to know:

First, according to the latest Duke CFO survey, the C suite was were becoming more optimistic before SVB and was looking ahead of 2024 as a recovery year, while expectations for sources of inflation were dimming.
Second, things that jumped out from our high-frequency indicators last week include the decline in bond market volatility off highs consistent with past bottoms in the stock market and the stabilization of performance for banks and small caps, which suggest to us that sentiment may be starting to heal. Both are good signals for the stock market.

Tech Valuations, Sentiment Update, Small Caps At An Important Crossroads Mar 29, 2023

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Today in the podcast, we have updated thoughts on sectors, sentiment, and small caps. Three big things you need to know: First, S&P 500 Tech sector valuations have room to run, while EPS and revenue revisions have turned slightly positive – supporting our continued overweight on the sector. Second, the body of our sentiment work continues to suggest fear has been approaching potential peak levels, but falls short of providing US equity investors with an all-clear. Third, other things that jump out from our high frequency indicators include how economic and earnings forecasts continue to anticipate a 2024 recovery, the return of high quality leadership, and how Small Cap performance relative to Large Cap is at an important crossroads.

Feeling Fine About Financials Mar 07, 2023

Show notes

Welcome to RBC’s Markets in Motion podcast, recorded March 6th, 2023. I’m Lori Calvasina, Head of US Equity Strategy at RBC Capital Markets. Please listen to the end of this podcast for important disclaimers.

Ahead of RBC’s Financial Services conference this week, today in the podcast we’re digging into our thoughts on the Financials sector, which we remain overweight. Three big things you need to know: First, Financials has been one of the best performing sectors over the past 6 months. Second, we think the sector is an attractively valued recovery play with a positive shareholder return profile, which history suggests should benefit from a Fed pause. Third, near-term challenges for the sector, and longer-term risks to our view, include the earnings forecast downgrade cycle the sector is in the midst of and the moderation in inflation that our economists continue to anticipate.

If you’d like to hear more, here’s another five minutes. While you’re waiting, a quick reminder that you can subscribe to this podcast on Apple, Spotify, and other major platforms. Now, the details.

2023 US Equity Market Outlook Update (Still Traveling Along A Bumpy Road) Mar 01, 2023

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Today in the podcast, a refresh of our 2023 outlook. The three big things you need to know: First, we’re sticking with our 4,100 YE 2023 S&P 500 target. We continue to view 2023 as another year of messy post-crisis normalization, similar to the 2010-2011 and 2002-2003 periods. Second, we see a relatively balanced risk/reward between Growth and Value for the balance of the year, though Growth is likely to bear the brunt of renewed inflation/Fed fears in the very near-term. Third, we continue to prefer Small Caps to Large Caps, though we admit that the setup for Small Caps is less compelling than it was last July when we turned overweight Small Caps.

Debt Ceiling Drama, More Mixed Earnings Messages, Sentiment Rebound Feb 22, 2023

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This week in the podcast, three big things you need to know: First, we see the drama in DC over the debt ceiling as a potential risk to keep an eye on for US equities later this year. Second, mixed messages persisted in last week’s earnings calls, with a slightly more positive tone than the prior week. Third, the rebound underway in investor sentiment, which has helped stocks stay resilient, still appears to be middle innings.

Low Quality, Muddled Macro Messages, 2023 EPS Softening vs. 2024 Recovery Feb 14, 2023

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This week in the podcast, we reflect on the most interesting question we received last week, and our latest thoughts on earnings. Three big things you need to know today: First, low quality leadership has returned, something that’s normal after recession lows have been put in. Second, macro themes were muddled in last week’s S&P 500 earnings calls helping explain why the rally has stumbled a bit. Third, earnings related data points continue to highlight near-term softening at the same time that a case for an earnings recovery in 2024 is emerging, highlighting the conflicting cross currents equities are grappling with.

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