Stay ConnectedEno Sarris and Derek VanRiper, along with Britt Ghiroli, Trevor May, and Jed Lowrie discuss advanced stats, strategy, prospects and more. From the first move of the Hot Stove season to the final pitch of the World Series, join us for year-round baseball talk.
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Eno and DVR discuss the pleasant surprise of having many sources of stolen-bases that are good all-around offensive players, plus Cody Bellinger's future, the risky speed profiles to avoid, underrating Jon Berti, and the potential impact of rule changes looming for the 2023 season.
Rundown
7:30 Stolen-Base Leaderboard Packed with Good Players?
12:30 Cody Bellinger's Future; Brighter Leaving LA?
20:08 Low OPS, Good Speed, High Risk
24:02 Underrating Jon Berti
27:16 Potential Impact of Rule Changes on Stolen Bases
31:09 Cedric Mullins' Breakout Follow-Up
35:56 Pitch Clock Coming in 2023? Pitchers Primed to Gain/Lose
45:45 The Pie Slice Rule, Shifting
49:55 Joey Bart's Second-Half Turnaround
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Eno and DVR discuss the strong debut from D-backs pitcher Ryne Nelson before examining a few surprises on the xStats leaderboards including José Ramírez, Alex Bregman, Bo Bichette, Paul Goldschmidt, José Abreu, and much more.
Rundown
4:06 Ryne Nelson’s Debut
8:10 xStats Recalibrated for 2022
12:16 Making Sense of José Ramírez's xStats
15:59 Alex Bregman’s Second-Half Rebound
21:27 Bo Bichette's Huge Monday; Slight Step Back in 2022
24:25 O-Swing% v. Great Hit Tools
30:59 What's Next For Paul Goldschmidt?
34:43 José Abreu's Lost Homers
42:21 Luis Patiño’s Two-Strike Approach
52:41 Too Many Lefty Bats in Shallow Leagues?
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Eno and DVR discuss several recently promoted players in the wake of September roster expansion including Gunnar Henderson, Spencer Steer, Garrett Mitchell, Hunter Brown, and Ken Waldichuk -- plus a few second-half pitchers competing for long-term opportunities with their respective clubs.
Rundown
2:02 Gunnar Henderson is Up!
8:33 Spencer Steer's Late-Season Opportunity
16:55 Nick Senzel's 2023 Role?
19:58 Spencer Torkelson, Round 2
22:59 Miguel Vargas Returns
27:17 Michael Toglia's Regular Run
33:57 Hunter Brown's Promotion in Houston
37:31 Ken Waldichuk Debuts
46:03 Brayan Bello, Cade Cavalli & Javier Assad
54:54 Julio Rodríguez's Long-Term Deal with the Mariners
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e-mail: ratesandbarrels@theathletic.com
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Eno and DVR discuss the promotion of Corbin Carroll, his chances of being relevant in all league formats down the stretch, second-half risers in contact quality, how we missed on Paul Goldschmidt's MVP-worthy 2022 campaign, and a few late reliever pickups capable of making meaningful contributions.
Rundown
-- Corbin Carroll Gets the Call
-- Jesús Aguilar DFA'd by the Marlins
-- Second-Half Barrel & Hard-Hit Surgers
-- What's Next for Rowdy Tellez?
-- How Did We Miss on Paul Goldschmidt?
-- The Timing of Taking Chances on Young, Breakout Players
-- Ketel Marte's Pursuit of His 2019 Peak
-- Waiting on Shortstop Worked Out
-- Late-Season Bullpen Help
Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris
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e-mail: ratesandbarrels@theathletic.com
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Eno and DVR discuss a few challenging late-season decisions, how to potentially avoid the issues in the future, a disappointing 2022 from Jared Walsh, the search for help at first base, their latest installment of Prospect of the Week, pitching in the zone 'too much' and more.
Rundown
-- Tough Late-Season Decisions
-- How to Avoid Chasing Pitching in the Future
-- Making the Difficult Drop
-- Jared Walsh's 2022: What Went Wrong?
-- Finding First Base Help
-- Prospect of the Week
-- More Info on Cade Cavalli
-- Removing Bias Against Old Pitchers
-- Pitching In the Zone Too Much?
Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris
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e-mail: ratesandbarrels@theathletic.com
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Eno and DVR discuss the long-term outlook for Walker Buehler following his second career Tommy John surgery, Fernando Tatis Jr.'s decision to undergo shoulder surgery while serving his suspension, a few approach similarities between Bo Bichette and Michael Harris II, late-season promotions thanks to new CBA rules, Oneil Cruz's Statcast-breaking feat, and much more.
Rundown
-- Walker Buehler Undergoes a Second Tommy John Surgery
-- Fernando Tatis Jr. Set for Shoulder Surgery
-- Michael Harris II and Similarities to Bo Bichette's Profile?
-- Cade Cavalli & Late Promotions
-- Oneil Cruz Sets New Max Exit Velocity Record
-- Has Amed Rosario Finally Reached His Ceiling?
-- What's Next for Yoán Moncada?
Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris
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e-mail: ratesandbarrels@theathletic.com
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Eno and DVR discuss several late-season pitchers to monitor in hopes of finding undervalued arms for stretch run, and potential big movers in 2023 -- including young starters, relievers w/the chance to move into larger roles, and the next group of elite closers.
Rundown
-- Starters with Stuff+ Improvements From Last Season
-- Jake Junis' Emergence in San Francisco
-- Potential Movers from Current Bullpen Role to Future Starting Opportunities
-- Making Sense of DL Hall's Debut
-- Nick Lodolo in the Face of Sinkers Disappearing
-- Edward Cabrera's Recent Success
-- The Next Group of Elite Relievers
-- Yusei Kikuchi as a Bullpen Arm?
Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris
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e-mail: ratesandbarrels@theathletic.com
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Eno and DVR discuss Fernando Tatis Jr.'s positive PED test and subsequent 80-game suspension, CJ Abrams' long-term power outlook, the biggest risers and fallers in slugging percentage from 2021 to 2022, and much more.
Rundown
4:07 Fernando Tatis Jr.'s Suspension, Future Outlook
12:27 CJ Abrams' Long-Term Power Trajectory; Early-Career Comps
21:05 Stat Traps?
25:59 Slugging Percentage Year-over-Year Risers
28:35 Andrés Giménez's Step Forward
33:41 Nick Gordon's Surprising Power
42:04 Yasmani Grandal's Plummeting Pop
45:26 Better Rebound Candidate: Castellanos v. Winker
51:25 Marcus Semien's Mid-Season Turnaround
58:45 Moves Allowed for Non-Playoff Teams in Keeper League?
Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris
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e-mail: ratesandbarrels@theathletic.com
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Eno and DVR discuss several second-half standouts that they are optimistic about beyond 2022, factors to consider when looking for deep pitching stashes late in the season, the possibility of two massive contracts for Juan Soto given his age, and whether it's time to shift more leagues to a combined 'Saves + Holds' stat to remedy closer inflation.
Rundown
-- Bullish On Young KC Bats?
-- Targeting Jose Barrero Despite Elevated K%?
-- J.D. Davis' New Opportunity in San Francisco
-- Holding Out Hope for Luis Rengifo?
-- Interest in JJ Bleday?
-- What to Consider with Keeper/Dynasty Pitcher Stashes?
-- Two Massive Deals for Juan Soto?
-- Why Hasn't There Been a Shift to More Saves+Holds Leagues?
Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris
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e-mail: ratesandbarrels@theathletic.com
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Eno and DVR discuss the value provided (or lack thereof) from the top-end closers in the pool so far this season, and whether that might lead to a less aggressive draft market toward the saves category in 2023. Plus, they consider what would go into a calculation that better quantifies risk, expectations for a few pitchers making late-season returns from injury, and candidates to be the 'next Jesse Winker'.
Rundown
-- Early Alternatives to Josh Hader and Liam Hendriks
-- Are Relievers Valued Incorrectly?
-- Overshopping the Bargain Bin
-- Will Sanity Return to Closer ADPs Next Season?
-- A Lot of Disappointment: Pick 100-200 Range
-- Quantifying Risk
-- Expectations for Late-Season SPs Returning From Injuries
-- An Approach to Hitters
-- Finding the Next Jesse Winker
Follow Eno on Twitter: @enosarris
Follow DVR on Twitter: @DerekVanRiper
e-mail: ratesandbarrels@theathletic.com
Related Reading 'Inter-Projection Volatility & The ATC Projections' by Ariel Cohen (@ATCNY): https://fantasy.fangraphs.com/inter-projection-volatility-the-atc-projections/
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