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Art Berman: Iran War Causing ‘Phase-Shift’ in Oil Markets, ‘Will Never’ Return to Normal Aug 20, 2026

Show notes

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Art Berman to the show. Art Berman is The Energy Realist. Berman explains that the initially feared catastrophic disruption from the Iran War has been partially offset, with production losses revised down to roughly 5 million barrels a day, though he stresses this remains a historically massive number. The absence of immediate global economic collapse is attributed to significant demand destruction, particularly in China, and the critical role of inventories. Using an analogy of a savings account versus a paycheck, he distinguishes between strategic and commercial reserves, noting that ample inventories have cushioned the market, preventing oil prices from spiking as they did during the Ukraine war when stocks were dangerously low. However, he warns that this cushion is finite and being drawn down at an alarming rate, with his comparative inventory model suggesting severe price pressures could materialize by November. The discussion highlights the profound risks associated with shut-in production, where wells may never return to prior output levels due to complex subsurface physics. Berman describes the situation as a permanent "phase shift," arguing the global oil system is fragmenting into distinct geopolitical blocs and will never revert to its pre-war state. He emphasizes that alternative supplies are not a simple solution because crude oil quality varies dramatically; light U.S. shale oil cannot easily replace medium-grade Persian Gulf crude required by many refineries. Looking at the longer term, Berman frames oil as a mature, declining resource, stating that civilization must eventually adapt to the end of perpetual growth, a transition that will fundamentally reshape society. He concludes by offering his consulting services for those needing deep analysis of energy markets and geopolitics.

Ted Oakley: ‘An Accident Waiting To Happen’, Why You Need to Own Hard Assets & Oil and Gas Aug 18, 2026

Show notes

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Ted Oakley to the show. Ted Oakley is Founder and Managing Partner | Oxbow Advisors. The discussion explores investment strategy, focusing on long-term holdings, hard assets, and contrarian opportunities. Oakley emphasizes the importance of a longer investment horizon, typically holding stocks for three to ten years, while acknowledging that most traders focus on short-term moves, often using leverage and options—which he views as risky. He notes that his firm recently bought back gold, silver, and mining stocks after significant corrections, considering them cheap on a cash flow basis, and continues to hold energy positions. Oakley expresses caution regarding certain AI-driven tech companies, citing concerns about debt levels, earnings quality, and the sustainability of current growth. He sees parallels to the late 1990s and the potential for revaluation if commercial viability falters. He advocates maintaining liquidity to seize opportunities during market dislocations, often holding substantial short-term treasuries alongside gold as a currency hedge against dollar depreciation and long-term inflationary pressures from rising government debt and deficits. The conversation turns to gold, with Oakley viewing the recent pullback to around $4,000 as a buying opportunity for those with a multi-year outlook, expecting much higher prices driven by central bank purchases and de-dollarization trends. He sees gold miners and royalty companies as undervalued, noting strong balance sheets and wide profit margins relative to extraction costs. Silver is also considered attractive, though more volatile. On energy, Oakley highlights the sector’s profitability even at moderate oil prices and the structural supply constraints from underinvestment. He recommends a diversified approach across producers, pipelines, and service companies, focusing on quality names bought at a discount to intrinsic value. He also discusses critical minerals and iron ore as part of a broader hard asset strategy to protect against currency debasement. Oakley concludes by describing Oxbow Advisors’ transparent, client-focused approach, available through their website and other public channels.

Peter Carlin: Why The Financial System is Imploding, The Rise of Gold & Oil Shortages Aug 10, 2026

Show notes

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Peter Carlin to the show. Peter Carlin is Commodity Broker, Trader, and Author. The discussion opens with the extreme volatility in global energy markets, where the Strait of Hormuz and Red Sea disruptions are creating severe logistical bottlenecks. Carlin explains that the real crisis is not crude oil supply per se, but a mismatch between the sour crude grades needed by Western refineries and the sweet crude that is more readily available. The US Strategic Petroleum Reserve is being heavily drawn down, particularly its sour component, to feed refineries and supply Europe, while refinery utilization rates in America are running unsustainably high, threatening system integrity. He notes that the situation is fluid and that any return to normal is unlikely; the geopolitical landscape has fundamentally shifted, with the US military presence in the Gulf diminished and Iran successfully exporting oil to China, settling in renminbi via alternative payment systems. The conversation shifts to gold and currencies. Carlin observes that gold’s recent price action is linked to the apparent disappearance of a distressed seller in the Gulf, now that loadings have resumed. He sees the yen’s weakness as a key barometer for gold, arguing that intervention cannot save the Japanese currency, and a sovereign debt crisis there would trigger contagion, driving investors toward gold and equities. He advises against chasing strength and recommends buying gold on weakness, cautioning that the public tends to do the opposite. Silver, while volatile, remains a leveraged play on fear but requires extreme caution due to professional traders dominating the market. Finally, Carlin shares the story behind his book, “A Pocketbook of Gold,” co-authored with the legendary Jim Sinclair, who famously called the 1970s gold bull market and the 2011 peak. The book, now available as a PDF, distills Sinclair’s trading wisdom and serves as a survival manual for monetary turmoil. Carlin emphasizes the importance of disciplined, patient trading over speculative home runs, a lesson drawn from decades of market experience.

Col. Douglas Macgregor: The Iran War Restart, $13,000 Gold & The Point of No Return Aug 06, 2026

Show notes

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Col. Douglas Macgregor to the show. Col. Douglas Macgregor is Retired U.S. Army Colonel & Decorated Combat Veteran. Macgregor offers a stark assessment that the Middle East conflict is fundamentally a Jewish war with no vital strategic interest for the United States, describing it as already regional and increasingly merging with other global flashpoints. He argues that the recent halt in hostilities is merely a pause, not a resolution, as no underlying issues have been settled. The conversation highlights how three conflicts—Ukraine, the Gulf region, and the cold war with China—are converging into a larger, dangerous alignment of Russia, China, and Iran against US and Israeli interests. Macgregor warns that Iran has effectively weaponized the Strait of Hormuz, and a potential Houthi blockade could cripple Saudi Arabia’s ability to export oil, threatening the existence of Gulf states unless they expel American forces. He contends that the US has been militarily defeated by Iran’s strategic use of new technology and space-based surveillance, yet political pressure from Zionist billionaires and the Israel lobby prevents President Trump from disengaging. This dynamic, he argues, will likely restart the bombing campaigns. The discussion shifts to the profound economic implications, with Macgregor predicting severe market fragility, potential bank runs, and even a depression. Against this backdrop, he sees gold becoming more valuable than ever, propelled by central bank buying, de-dollarization, and monstrous US debt. He cites predictions of gold reaching $13,000 to $15,000 per ounce, possibly sooner than 2031 if conflict reignites. Macgregor reveals his personal investment philosophy of holding cash and precious metals exclusively, emulating J.D. Rockefeller’s strategy of maintaining liquidity to capitalize on distressed opportunities. He praises Palisades Goldcorp for its strong cash position and strategic investments in gold, uranium, and other critical minerals, positioning it for substantial upside in a deteriorating global economy. He concludes by emphasizing the decline of US hegemony and the urgent, yet ignored, need to accept a new world order.

Martin Armstrong: Why The World Order Will Collapse in 2032 | Gold, Oil & The US Dollar Aug 04, 2026

Show notes

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Martin Armstrong to the show. Martin Armstrong is CEO & Chairman of Armstrong Economics Ltd. Armstrong argues that the conflict with Iran was a strategic miscalculation driven by Neocons and Benjamin Netanyahu’s flawed strategy of decapitation leadership, which historically never works. Contrary to assumptions, Iran is highly organized, has planned for this war for a decade, and is playing "3D chess" by targeting the Gulf states' financial stability through attacks on Dubai and by threatening to shut down the Strait of Hormuz. This strategy is designed not just to raise oil prices but to trigger a sovereign debt crisis in the Gulf, which took on massive debts when oil prices collapsed during COVID. Armstrong connects this to the Ukraine conflict, where he describes Volodymyr Zelensky as deliberately escalating to draw NATO into a broader war, attacking Russian energy facilities and Iranian ships to merge the two conflicts. This geopolitical turmoil is occurring amid a steep global recession expected to bottom between 2026 and 2028. He identifies Japan and the Middle East as the most at-risk regions for a sovereign debt crisis, while Europe is already economically crippled, with pension funds wiped out by years of negative interest rates. This desperation is why leaders like Macron seek war. Despite the short-term bearish outlook for metals, Armstrong’s computer models forecast a strong bull market from 2027 into 2032, with gold potentially reaching $7,000 to $8,000, possibly spiking to $11,000. This corresponds with his prediction that 2032 will mark the collapse of republican forms of government, driven by systemic corruption. He also expects oil prices to rise due to physical supply shortages, fueling a stagflationary environment where traditional Keynesian economics fails. Capital fleeing war zones will continue flowing into the U.S., supporting both stocks and gold.

Joel Salatin: The Real Impact of Fertilizer Shortages on Farmers | The Next Farm Crisis Starts Now Aug 01, 2026

Show notes

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Joel Salatin to the show. Joel Salatin is Christian Libertarian Environmentalist Capitalist Lunatic Farmer. Salatin described a deeply distorted US agricultural landscape, where massive oversupply of corn and soybeans coexists with a historic cattle shortage. Half of domestic corn goes to ethanol, not food, and China’s pursuit of self-sufficiency is eroding soybean exports, yet government bailouts keep older, risk-averse farmers locked into unprofitable cropping cycles. This parasitic dependence on subsidies props up unneeded production while stifling the market signals that would otherwise push farmers toward cattle, a switch he demonstrated could be highly profitable and capital-efficient. The fertilizer and energy shocks from Middle East conflicts further expose the fragility of input-dependent farming. Salatin noted that rising fuel costs drive farm bankruptcies and accelerate land consolidation into the hands of patient capital, including family offices and billionaires. He emphasized that genuine food security is not threatened by lack of production but by water scarcity and desertification driven by vegetative loss from overgrazing and continuous cropping. Instead, he champions a biological paradigm of farming that builds soil through cover crops, intensive rotational grazing, and on-farm composting to eliminate synthetic inputs. His own Polyface Farms exemplifies this model, integrating livestock, forest, and direct marketing to create a resilient, local carbon economy. Salatin contends that the path forward lies not in propping up the failing industrial system but in entrepreneurial adoption of regenerative practices that mimic nature’s nutrient cycles and restore hydrological balance.

Josef Schachter: Imminent Gasoline Shortages, Tank Bottoms & ‘Much Higher’ Oil Prices for Longer Jul 31, 2026

Show notes

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Josef Schachter to the show. Josef Schachter is Founder, Schachter Asset Management Inc. Schachter clarifies that the current energy market tightness is not a crude oil shortage but a severe refining capacity problem, particularly impacting Asia. While US production has surged to 24 million barrels daily, allowing for exports, a lack of refined products in Asia has driven local prices to the equivalent of over $150 per barrel. He attributes the volatility to geopolitical tensions, noting that oil prices swung from the high $90s to $67 before rebounding into the mid-$80s on renewed conflict fears. Schachter outlines three potential scenarios for oil prices. If peace talks succeed and the Strait of Hormuz and Bab al-Mandab reopen, prices could fall back below $70, aided by China’s massive strategic reserves and floating storage. If the conflict remains contained, a trading range between $70 and $94 is likely. However, a significant escalation involving Iran and key shipping lanes could push prices past the previous high of $119, potentially reaching $141.50. He warns that such a sustained spike above $120 would trigger severe global economic headwinds, combining with AI-driven job losses and high government debt to potentially cause a deep recession. From an investment perspective, Schachter sees energy producers as undervalued, trading on long-term price assumptions of $60-$65 oil despite his forecast of $80 average for the year and $90 in 2027. He highlights Canada as a particularly attractive region due to a new, supportive political stance toward fossil fuels, vast undrilled reserves, and discounted valuations compared to US peers. He advises that higher prices will economically transform lower-tier drilling inventory into highly profitable assets, offering significant upside for investors across the energy and service sectors.

Bob Moriarty: Imminent ‘Explosion’ Of Fuel prices, World War 3 & Global Depression Jul 30, 2026

Show notes

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Bob Moriarty to the show. Bob Moriarty is Author, Founder 321 Gold, & Former Marine Fighter Pilot. Moriarty outlines a deeply concerning global landscape, arguing that recent escalations—including Ukraine’s attack on Iranian vessels and Saudi Arabia’s strike on the Houthis—have rapidly transformed regional conflicts into what could become World War III. He contends that Israel is the primary driver of the war against Iran, with the United States under Donald Trump co-opting the conflict, potentially under duress from compromising information. Despite the severe supply disruptions, including the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz and attacks on Saudi refineries, oil prices have paradoxically fallen. Moriarty attributes this to widespread manipulation by governments draining strategic petroleum reserves and intervening in paper markets to suppress costs, a tactic he warns is unsustainable and risks permanently damaging storage infrastructure. He believes all the headwinds that previously kept prices low have become tailwinds, setting the stage for a sudden, explosive price spike that could devastate the global economy. On precious metals, Moriarty notes gold’s resilience, referencing a forecast that it could trade between $4,000 and $6,000 this year due to currency debasement, though he emphasizes that manipulation exists across all markets. He advocates holding physical metals as insurance against chaos and sees extraordinary value in junior mining stocks, which he believes are historically undervalued relative to commodity prices. While acknowledging the high-risk nature of junior investments, he stresses that outsized gains from a few winners can offset losses. Moriarty encourages independent thinking and contrarian research, pointing to his free websites, 321gold.com and 321energy.com, as resources that present diverse viewpoints without promoting a single guru.

Lobo Tiggre: Why There’s Not A Single Gold Mining Stock I Would Buy Today Jul 22, 2026

Show notes

Recorded on: July 21, 2026 Stijn Schmitz welcomes back Lobo Tiggre to the show. Lobo Tiggre is the Author and Founder of the Independent Speculator. The discussion centers on the current state of precious metals and commodities, with Tiggre offering a fundamentally driven, contrarian perspective. He asserts that while gold's long-term value proposition remains spectacular, driven by de-dollarization and central bank buying, the market is at a critical juncture following a significant correction. He does not believe the bottom is confirmed, suggesting a potential cyclical low could be sub-$3,000 gold, and he is holding cash for such an opportunity rather than chasing current prices. This patience extends to gold miners, where he acknowledges compelling value but warns that stocks will not be immune to further drawdowns in the metal, advocating for a "buy low" strategy to maximize returns. Tiggre expresses increasing fondness for silver, noting its dual monetary and industrial drivers, though he cautions about political risk in key jurisdictions like Mexico. On energy, he remains very bullish on oil long-term due to understated supply disruptions but is not chasing the recent price rebound, preferring to sell puts to acquire positions at lower levels. He sees a potential inverse opportunity in copper, where escalating war fears could create an oversold condition in a market with strong structural supply constraints. The conversation highlights uranium as a particularly compelling setup, with the spot price lagging the consistently rising long-term contract price, suggesting an upward snap is likely. Tiggre advises that in a major market drawdown, the safest and best companies become obvious bargains, eliminating the need for high-risk speculation. His overarching strategy is a barbell approach, balancing blue-chip producers with higher-risk, high-reward exploration stocks, all while waiting for truly low-risk entry points. Timestamps: 00:00:00 - Introduction00:00:37 - Gold Value Proposition00:03:37 - Market Bottom Analysis00:04:44 - Bull Market Debate00:08:19 - Price Levels and Drawdowns00:11:10 - Central Bank Buying Durability00:14:57 - Gold Miners Value Proposition00:19:10 - Portfolio Allocation Strategy00:23:59 - Mining Developers Analysis00:26:40 - Silver and Silver Miners00:29:46 - Oil and Gas Sector00:34:10 - Copper Market Dynamics00:35:14 - Oil/Copper Shopping List?00:40:03 - Uranium Investment Setup00:45:19 - Concluding Thoughts Guest Links:Website: https://independentspeculator.comX: https://x.com/duediligenceguyFacebook: https://www.facebook.com/louis.james.965580/LinkedIn: https://www.linkedin.com/in/lobotiggre/ Lobo Tiggre, aka Louis James, is the founder and CEO of Louis James LLC, and the principal analyst and editor of IndependentSpeculator.com. He researched and recommended speculative opportunities in Casey Research publications from 2004 to 2018, writing under the name "Louis James." While with Casey Research, he learned the ins and outs of resource speculation from the legendary speculator Doug Casey. Although frequently mistaken for one, Mr. Tiggre is not a professional geologist. However, his long tutelage under world-class geologists, writers, and investors resulted in an exceptional track record. A fully transparent, documented, and verifiable track record is a central feature of the IndependentSpeculator. Mr. Tiggre will put his own money into the speculations he writes about, so his readers will always know he has "skin in the game" with them.

Steve Hanke: What Everyone Is Getting Wrong on Iran War, The Commodity Super Cycle & Gold Jul 21, 2026

Show notes

Stijn Schmitz welcomes Steve Hanke to the show. Steve Hanke is Professor of Applied Economics, Johns Hopkins University. Hanke highlights the two major wars—the U.S.-Israel conflict with Iran and the Ukraine war—as critical disruptors of global commodity flows. He notes that the Strait of Hormuz is effectively closed, with Iran controlling it, and the Houthis threaten the Red Sea chokepoint, severely constricting crude and refined product supplies. Russia’s cutoff of diesel exports and domestic fuel shortages compound the strain. Oil markets are in backwardation, with spot prices above futures, signaling dangerously low inventories that have cushioned prices so far but are nearing depletion. Hanke warns that once physical inventories run out, oil prices could spike dramatically, potentially later this summer. He advises going long on oil, especially major producers, as a straightforward trade for most investors. On gold, Hanke maintains a bullish outlook, projecting a peak around $6,000 per ounce based on historical ratios to real disposable income. He attributes recent pullbacks to dollar strength and rising interest rates but sees central bank buying as a fundamental driver. He also discusses the pressure on the Fed to monetize debt, which could fuel inflation and support gold. The conversation shifts to the broader commodity supercycle, fueled by deglobalization, underinvestment, and the need for larger precautionary inventories. Copper and tungsten are identified as clear bullish plays due to supply deficits. Hanke notes that high diesel prices are squeezing mining and agriculture, potentially raising output prices. He also touches on dollarization, recommending developing countries adopt the U.S. dollar to expand its use rather than de-dollarize. The interview concludes with Hanke emphasizing the importance of money supply growth as the key determinant of nominal GDP and inflation.

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