Jesse Felder: The Darkening Skies Over Wall Street – Ominous Signals for Investors
Nov 19, 2024
Tom welcomes back, Jesse Felder, founder, editor, and publisher of The Felder Report, to discuss inflation and its impact on investments. Felder argues that American citizens consider inflation a major issue, despite the Federal Reserve’s efforts to contain it. He suggested the Fed might accept higher-than-targeted inflation levels in the future.
Felder touches upon bond markets as indicators of potential inflation trends and the possibility of another “lost decade” for stock and bond portfolios due to current valuations. Felder criticizes passive investing, citing negative annual returns over a 10-year period, and emphasizes individual investors’ attention to Warren Buffett’s investment philosophy, focusing on valuation sensitivity.
Buffett’s massive cash position in Berkshire Hathaway was discussed, with reasons for his disinterest in gold and cautious approach due to concerns over the fiscal situation. Jesse suggests individual investors pay heed to Buffett’s underlying investment strategy while acknowledging opportunities unavailable to Berkshire Hathaway.
Felder also highlights the potential for a steep market reversal following the stock market’s overexuberance post-Trump’s election and emphasized insider activity and buy-sell ratios as indicators of earnings and economic disappointments in the equity market. He encourages investors to be cautious given current extreme valuations.
Felder expresses his interest on oil and gas stocks due to the changing inflation environment and the new floor at $70 for oil prices. He believes that energy producers would benefit from a more stable foundation for their commodity, despite concerns about the Strategic Petroleum Reserve’s size and potential implications of inflation and peak oil production.
Time Stamp References: 0:00 – Introduction 0:37 – Inflation Been Fixed? 3:45 – Fed & Inflation Targets 8:16 – Bonds & Reality 11:38 – Tariffs & Tax Cuts 14:10 – A Lost Decade? 18:05 – Warren Buffet Position 28:14 – Risk Exposure & Gold 32:08 – Market Exuberance 36:50 – Avoiding Loss 38:30 – Valuing Sectors 40:00 – Energy & Tech 43:44 – SPR & U.S. Production 46:38 – Peak Energy & Inflation 49:00 – Equity Mkt. Concerns 50:12 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
American citizens perceive inflation as a significant problem, despite Federal Reserve’s attempts to control it.
The Fed might accept higher-than-targeted inflation levels in the future.
Buffett’s cash position and disinterest in gold, potential market reversal, and focus on oil and gas stocks are notable.
Jesse Felder is the Founder, Editor, and Publisher of The Felder Report. He began his professional career at Bear, Stearns & Co. and later co-founded a multi-billion-dollar hedge fund firm headquartered in Santa Monica, California. Since moving to Bend, Oregon in 2000 and founding The Felder Report shortly thereafter his writing and research have been featured in major publications and websites like The Wall Street Journal, Barron’s, Yahoo!Finance, Business Insider, RealVision, Investing.com, and more. Jesse also hosts and produces the Superinvestors and the Art of Worldly Wisdom podcast.
Doug Casey: Buying Gold Miners, Cheap Compared to Gold Itself
Nov 18, 2024
Tom Bodrovics interviews Doug Casey in-person at his home in Argentina assisted by Ivor Cummins. Doug emphasizes the importance of focusing on areas like economics, history, science, self-improvement, and traveling to broaden perspectives amidst political uncertainties. He suggests that Argentina, Chile, Uruguay, Paraguay, southern Brazil, and the Southern Cone of South America could be ideal for relocation due to their civility, open spaces, low population density, and capacity for food security.
Doug shares his affinity for Argentina, despite its political instability and frequent revolutions, and praises its culture, ranching, and potential for food security. Doug expresses dismay over U.S. politics and the nomination of Kamala Harris, labeling her ‘stupid’ and ‘evil,’ alleging communist leanings. He believes that a potential economic downturn might be preferable for societal rebuilding but fears the Democrats’ potential power consolidation.
Doug discusses the upcoming economic downturn’s potential severity and longevity, comparing it to the Great Depression, due to the historic size of the financial bubble and vast debt accumulated by individuals and governments. He advocates for individual preparedness and self-reliance, advising listeners to learn new skills, acquire gold and silver, and speculate in markets. Doug also expresses optimism, suggesting humanity might explore other planets to overcome challenges and discusses the recent election’s impact on Gold and Silver prices, maintaining their fundamentals despite short-term fluctuations. He disdains market distractions like meme stocks and advocates for gold miners due to their low valuation relative to historical standards.
Talking Points From This Episode
Doug Casey advocates for relocation to South America due to political instability and potential food security.
He criticizes U.S. politics, particularly Kamala Harris, and predicts economic downturn and societal rebuilding.
Casey advises individual preparedness, learning new skills, acquiring gold and silver, and investing in markets.
Time Stamp References: 0:00 – Introduction 1:01 – Politics & Perspectives 3:55 – Plan B & Safe Countries 10:09 – Feel of South America 14:44 – Elections & Kamala? 16:30 – Positivity & Trump? 17:28 – Power & Deep State? 20:35 – The Greater Depression 24:19 – Migratory Invasion 26:20 – Agendas & Migration 27:30 – Financial Bubbles & Debt 29:40 – Fight and/or Flight? 31:20 – Election & The Dollar 34:15 – Gold Bull Markets? 37:03 – Debt & Depression 39:30 – Gold Bull Markets 41:48 – Knowledge & Trust 42:33 – Government Dependence 43:39 – Novels & Wrap Up
Best-selling author, world-renowned speculator, and libertarian philosopher Doug Casey has garnered a well-earned reputation for his erudite (and often controversial) insights into politics, economics, and investment markets. Doug is widely respected as one of the preeminent authorities on “rational speculation,” especially in the high-potential natural resource sector. Doug’s most recent book, “Assassin,” can be found on Amazon.
He has been a featured guest on hundreds of radio and TV shows, including David Letterman, Merv Griffin, Charlie Rose, Phil Donahue, Regis Philbin, Maury Povich, NBC News, and CNN; has been the topic of numerous features in periodicals such as Time, Forbes, People, and the Washington Post. Doug has lived in 10 countries and visited over 175. Today you’re most likely to find him at La Estancia de Cafayate (Casey’s Gulch), an oasis tucked away in the high red mountains outside Salta, Argentina.
Ivor Cummins BE(Chem) CEng MIEI completed a Biochemical Engineering degree in 1990. He has since spent 30 years in corporate technical leadership positions. His career specialty has been leading large worldwide teams in complex problem-solving activity.
Since 2012 Ivor has been intensively researching the root causes of modern chronic disease. A particular focus has been on cardiovascular disease, diabetes and obesity. He shares his research insights at public speaking engagements around the world, revealing the key nutritional and lifestyle interventions which will deliver excellent health and personal productivity. He has recently presented at the British Association of Cardiovascular Prevention and Rehabilitation (BACPR) and also at the Irish National Institute of Preventative Cardiology (NIPC) annual conferences. Ivor’s 2018 book “Eat Rich, Live Long” (co-authored with preventative medicine expert Jeffry Gerber MD, FAAFP), details the conclusions of their shared research.
Michael Yon & Ivor Cummins: The West We Knew Is Over
Nov 15, 2024
https://rumble.com/embed/v5necnn/?pub=13ry0f
In an in person interview at Doug Casey’s home in Argentina, Tom Bodrovics hosts Michael Yon and Ivor Cummins. The discussion revolves around the profound shifts in the global order post-Trump election. Michael Yon, a combat correspondent, author, and former Green Beret, underscores this era as pivotal due to evolving geopolitical dynamics rather than the election itself. He believes globalism, an age-old concept, gains traction with modern technology.
Yon implicates certain entities, namely Zionists, seeking control over specific territories for their interests. He warns of their intent to target Iran, Hamas in Gaza, Hezbollah, and Russia. Furthermore, he highlights the struggle between oligarchs, some aiming to decrease the world population and deindustrialize Europe.
The conversation delves into U.S. intentions behind the Nord Stream pipeline conflict with Russia. Factors include maintaining geopolitical distance, economic implications, and European deindustrialization. Threats from the U.S. towards fertilizer and agriculture sectors as potential means to instigate famines are also examined.
Michael questions Trump’s ability to end wars based on campaign promises and cautions about their unpredictability and longevity. He introduces concepts like staked goat tactics and green flag attacks, hinting at potential deception in conflicts.
Emphasizing the significance of clear language and context, Michael defines ongoing issues as invasions instead of crises or migrations. Weaponized migration as an ancient tactic of warfare is also discussed. Possible safe havens for personal freedom and security are debated, with reference to Doug Casey’s preferred countries.
The evolving perspective on drugs as weapons is addressed, including historical examples like the opium wars. Various forms of warfare, such as drug warfare and information warfare, are explored as tools used by adversaries to disrupt societies. Personal insights from Asia regarding Chinese infiltration into American political systems and banking sectors are shared. The detrimental effects of drugs on families and society are acknowledged, with concerns about their potential to weaken resistance against adversaries’ strategies.
Criticisms of political figures like Trump and Harris are voiced, as well as HIAS’s role in facilitating migration through the Darien gap in Panama. Influential figures like Alejandro Mayorkas, now leading the Department of Homeland Security, are mentioned in this context.
Timestamp References: 0:00 – Introduction 1:08 – Changing World Order 10:45 – Euro Problems & Farms 15:42 – Trump & The Conflicts? 23:00 – Invasion of the West 32:00 – Getting Out of Dodge? 34:10 – Attack Vectors & Drugs 38:53 – Stress and Life Quality 42:10 – Darien Gap & NGO’s 50:52 – Building Resilience? 53:20 – Gold & Jekyll Island 57:38 – Strategic Metals & Silver 1:00:04 – Get On Your A-Game 1:01:18 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Zionism desire to control regions and planned actions against Iran, Hamas, Hezbollah, and Russia.
Globalism’s revival: Yon argues that it has existed since ancient times but is now more feasible with advanced technology.
The U.S.’s Nord Stream motivations: Geopolitical separation, economic implications, and deindustrialization of Europe.
Michael Yon is a former Green Beret, native of Winter Haven, Fl. who has been reporting from Iraq and Afghanistan since December 2004. No other reporter has spent as much time with combat troops in these two wars. Michael’s dispatches from the frontlines have earned him the reputation as the premier independent combat journalist of his generation. His work has been featured on Good Morning America, The Wall Street Journal, The New York Times, CNN, ABC, FOX, as well as hundreds of other major media outlets all around the world.
Ivor Cummins BE(Chem) CEng MIEI completed a Biochemical Engineering degree in 1990. He has since spent 30 years in corporate technical leadership positions. His career specialty has been leading large worldwide teams in complex problem-solving activity.
Since 2012 Ivor has been intensively researching the root causes of modern chronic disease. A particular focus has been on cardiovascular disease, diabetes and obesity. He shares his research insights at public speaking engagements around the world, revealing the key nutritional and lifestyle interventions which will deliver excellent health and personal productivity. He has recently presented at the British Association of Cardiovascular Prevention and Rehabilitation (BACPR) and also at the Irish National Institute of Preventative Cardiology (NIPC) annual conferences. Ivor’s 2018 book “Eat Rich, Live Long” (co-authored with preventative medicine expert Jeffry Gerber MD, FAAFP), details the conclusions of their shared research.
Christopher Aaron: Could Trump End the Federal Reserve System?
Nov 13, 2024
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Christopher Aaron, founder of iGold Advisor and senior editor for Gold Eagle, for a discussion about market sentiment towards gold post-U.S. election results and the Federal Reserve meeting. Aaron shares his perspective on market cycles and warns investors about potential resistance levels for gold while expressing caution against abandoning precious metals entirely due to unforeseen circumstances.
They explore the impact of the U.S. election, Fed meeting, Trump presidency, and the Dow to Gold ratio on markets, emphasizing the significance of considering both present situations and future developments. Aaron also discusses his analysis of the gold to silver ratio chart, focusing on trends and their implications for investors, and the potential implications of Elon Musk’s involvement in Trump’s administration on reducing the U.S. government.
Chris also discusses Ron Paul’s advocacy for ending the Federal Reserve System and the possible significance of his inclusion in Trump’s administration, as well as the expected timeline for tax cuts and regulatory changes under the new administration and broader themes for the next decade. Throughout the conversation, they encourage listeners to broaden their perspectives and consider various markets and investments beyond precious metals.
Time Stamp References: 0:00 – Introduction 0:50 – Sentiment & Gold 8:50 – Fundamentals & Possibility 12:50 – Dow To Gold Chart 19:50 – Gold To Silver Chart 28:52 – Dollar Index & Outlook 34:00 – Energy & Mkt. Direction 46:50 – End The Fed? 50:08 – Tax Cuts & Timeframes 52:10 – Space Exploration 59:08 – Concluding Thoughts
Aaron warns investors about potential resistance levels for gold while emphasizing the importance of not abandoning precious metals entirely.
U.S. election results, Federal Reserve meeting, Trump presidency, and Dow to Gold ratio impact markets, with both present situations and future developments significant.
Analysis of gold to silver ratio chart reveals trends and implications for investors, and Elon Musk’s role in Trump’s administration could potentially reduce the U.S. government debt.
Christopher Aaron is Senior Editor for the precious metals investment portal Gold Eagle.
A former counter-terrorism officer for the CIA and Department of Defense, Christopher has always had an independent analytical outlook. He volunteered to serve two tours to Iraq and Afghanistan from 2006 – 2009, conducting pattern analysis and mapping for the US Intelligence Community in Washington, DC. Drawing upon his investigative background, he turned attention to the financial markets in the early 2000s.
Mapping shares similarities with technical analysis of the financial markets because both involve the observation and interpretation of patterns found in human nature. Through his work, Christopher shares with clients how these patterns are cyclical and embedded. Recognizing these patterns can be used to profit.
Christopher Aaron holds a degree in history and business, with advanced Department of Defense training in intelligence analysis.
Dr. Nomi Prins: Why Uranium, Gold and Silver are the Actual Winners of the Election
Nov 12, 2024
Tom welcomes back Dr. Nomi Prins, financial expert and best-selling author, about the impact of the U.S. election on markets and her outlook for the economy. Dr. Prins highlights the disconnect between the thriving financial markets and the stagnant real economy, with high debt levels and inflation surpassing wage growth. The election brought attention to voters’ economic concerns, although neither candidate presented substantial plans for addressing debt and deficit issues. Trump’s promises on immigration and inflation reassured some, but his lack of a comprehensive economic strategy remains a concern for Dr. Prins.
Tom and Dr. Prins explore the economic implications of tariffs, focusing on Trump’s plan to impose tariffs on imports. The reduction in supply from tariffs causes price increases and inflation, potentially harming the domestic economy unless the country can offset these costs by participating in multiple parts of the supply chain.
The nuclear energy industry is positioned for growth following the election results, with companies like Microsoft and Amazon considering nuclear power deals. The state of energy development in the United States is also explored in the context of Trump’s plans to deregulate.
Dr. Prins discusses the movement of the US dollar after the election results and the potential for de-dollarization. The US dollar continues to be the world’s top reserve currency, but longer-term trends suggest de-dollarization through trade agreements in non-dollar currencies, alternative trading currencies, and infrastructure development. Central banks’ interest in gold as a hedge against risks, coupled with increasing demand from consumers in countries like China and India, positions gold to play an essential role in this framework.
Time Stamp References: 0:00 – Introduction 0:54 – Election Change Anything? 4:03 – Trump Economic Policy? 7:54 – Tarriffs & Consequences 11:35 – Senate & House 15:37 – Energy & Deregulation 17:53 – Permian Shale Status 20:22 – Strategic Mineral Reserve 24:02 – Capital Deployment Goals 26:40 – Nuclear Energy & Tech 32:54 – BRICS & Dedollarization 37:12 – Banking Architecture 38:31 – Gold Reserves & Trust 42:20 – Russia Silver Reserves 46:46 – Banks Diversification 49:02 – Banking System Stress 52:26 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Financial expert Dr. Nomi Prins discusses economic disconnect between markets and real economy, focusing on US election impact.
Trump’s promises on immigration and inflation influenced markets, but lack of economic strategy remains a concern.
Tariffs, nuclear energy growth, and de-dollarization are major economic shifts following the U.S. election.
Dr. Nomi Prins as a Wall Street insider and outspoken advocate for economic reform, Nomi Prins is a leading authority on how the widespread impact of financial systems continues to affect our daily lives. She has spent decades analyzing and investigating economic and financial events at the ground level and meeting with those that shape the world’s geopolitical-economic framework. She continues to break stories by conducting independent research, writing best-selling books, and traversing the globe to share her knowledge and demystify the world of money.
Before becoming a renowned journalist and public speaker, Nomi reached the upper echelons of the financial world where she worked as a managing director at Goldman Sachs, ran the international analytics group as a senior managing director at Bear Stearns in London, was a strategist at Lehman Brothers and an analyst at the Chase Manhattan Bank. During her time on Wall Street, she grew increasingly aware of and discouraged by the unethical practices that permeated the banking industry. Eventually, she decided enough was enough and became an investigative journalist to shed light on the ways that financial systems are manipulated to serve the interests of an elite few at the expense of everyone else.
Dudley Baker: We’re on the Hunt for 10-Baggers
Nov 11, 2024
Tom welcomes back Dudley Baker, the founder of Common Stock Warrants. The discussion revolves around the current state of the resource sector, particularly precious metals, and the potential opportunities for investors in undervalued mining companies. Despite recent historic highs in gold and silver prices, many juniors and micro-caps in the mining industry have not yet seen significant gains. Dudley believes that an inflection point is near, when investors will recognize the value of these companies, possibly triggered by market crashes or impressive earnings reports.
Dudley explains that warrants, often attached to private placements act as incentives for investors, offering upside leverage and can be tradable. He emphasizes the importance of liking the underlying company before investing in its warrant and shares resources to monitor Canadian private placements and their associated warrants. The mining sector has the potential for massive gains, especially with the vast amount of data available. Dudley maintains a positive outlook and encourages investors to look for opportunities while they are still cheap.
Dudley shares his experience with successful warrant trades and discusses the differences between common stocks and warrants. He explains that publicly traded warrants, which can be bought and sold like any other stock, provide upside leverage without requiring the buyer to exercise them. However, for U.S. investors dealing with Canadian companies, you need access to specific platforms for exercising warrants.
Throughout the conversation, Dudley stresses the importance of insider activity as a crucial indicator for potential investments and shares his extensive database of warrants in various sectors. He also discusses misconceptions about stock warrants and offers advice on making informed investment decisions based on price charts and personal risk tolerance.
David Kranzler: Mining Stocks Haven’t Been This Golden Since 2001
Oct 31, 2024
Tom Bodrovics your host welcomes back Dave Kranzler from Investment Research Dynamics. Kranzler discusses the impact of the upcoming election on national debt and market conditions, expressing concern over the mounting deficit and lack of government spending reductions. He highlights the importance of military spending, handouts, and domestic spending in keeping the economy afloat, but warns of potential economic collapse without significant spending cuts.
Kranzler expresses concerns about the U.S. Treasury and the Federal Reserve’s gold holdings. He questions their true possession of reported reserves and lack of audits.
Kranzler believes that liquidity, not monetary policy, is the crucial factor keeping markets and banks functioning in today’s hyper-financialized economy. Despite the Fed’s reduction in its balance sheet and hawkish monetary policy, M2 has continued to grow, and over $2 trillion has been drained from the reverse repo facility to finance the treasury deficit and prop up sagging markets.
Kranzler expresses his belief that gold’s price in dollars is setting up a favorable position and silver’s cup-and-handle formation and industrial usage make it an attractive investment opportunity. He also shares his concerns about banks’ actual silver positions, the opacity surrounding these positions, and potential consequences if hedge funds request delivery of actual bars from the COMEX market.
Kranzler discusses the importance of understanding the production deficit in the silver market and investing in pure silver plays. He emphasizes that all stock purchases involve risk but is currently watching closely mid-tier producers.
Kranzler also discusses the role of confidentiality agreements and feasibility studies in attracting larger companies to junior mining projects. He encourages investors to focus on a few stocks they believe in and learn how to analyze these stocks for potential returns.
Time Stamp References: 0:00 – Introduction 0:42 – Election & Market Effects 3:24 – Implosion Inevitable 4:20 – U.S. Gold Audits & Fed 11:57 – Liquidity & Banks 16:09 – Fed’s Next Move? 20:36 – Precious Metals Outlook 28:38 – Silver Production Deficit 33:26 – Mexico & Mining? 36:34 – Silver Miners? 43:05 – Silver Speculation? 44:44 – Eric Sprott 47:07 – M&A Targets? 50:23 – Feasibility Studies? 55:10 – Streaming Agreements 56:34 – Finding Value in Miners 1:01:02 – Risks & Considerations 1:05:39 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
David’s insights on the current state and future trends of the precious metals market.
Kranzler expresses concern over mounting national debt and potential economic collapse without spending cuts.
The role of royalties and streams in funding mining projects, and the pros and cons.
Kranzler’s advice to investors regarding focusing on a few stocks and analyzing them thoroughly.
David Kranzler spent many years working in various analytic jobs and trading on Wall Street. For nine of those years, he traded junk bonds for Bankers Trust. Dave earned a master’s degree in business administration from the University of Chicago, concentrating on accounting and finance. He writes a blog to help people understand and analyze what is going on in our financial system and economy.
Rick Rule: The Inevitability of the Gold Price Rise
Oct 30, 2024
As the sun sets, the video quality improves, and Tom Bodrovics once again engages in a thoughtful conversation with the legendary Rick Rule. The discussion revolves around Rick’s busy post-retirement life, the current gold and silver investment environment, and investing strategies in the metals industry.
Rick admits his retirement was unsuccessful as he continues to be engrossed in work, but he appreciates the reduced regulatory engagement since leaving Sprott. He enjoys sharing knowledge of past mentors through interviews and events like the Rule Investment Symposium, which offers a money-back guarantee for attendees. Rick believes that attending conferences for informal conversations and connections is essential.
They discuss the macroeconomic factors influencing gold and silver investments, such as increasing costs affecting mining companies’ profitability and the potential $135 trillion debt in the US economy leading to inflation and boosting metal prices. The conversation delves into investing strategies for retail investors, from owning physical gold first to building a portfolio based on beta.
Rick shares his experiences with political risk and success stories in countries like Chile, Congo, and South Sudan, emphasizing the importance of understanding political and jurisdictional risks. He discusses investment opportunities in natural resource sectors like gold and silver, as well as contrarian picks such as North American natural gas and the lithium market. Rick also expresses interest in investing in private placements that can significantly enhance a company’s value.
Throughout the conversation, they touch upon topics such as patience, long-term vision, competency, and corporate strategy. They also discuss the importance of having an opinion on value and being able to endure market volatility. Rick shares key lessons from his career as an investor, stressing the significance of contrarianism, understanding market dynamics, and patience.
Time Stamp References: 0:00 – Introduction 0:48 – Failing at Retirement 3:00 – Conference & Guarantee 5:36 – State of Resource Sector 8:54 – Fed Cuts & Politics 17:07 – A Triumph of Politics 18:35 – Shelton & Gold Treasuries? 20:18 – First Gold Bull Moves 25:30 – Investor Risk Appetites 27:02 – Global Demand & Bullion? 30:36 – Investor Types & Gold 35:32 – Studying Miners & Risks 39:30 – New Investor Advice 42:25 – Common Sense Rules 45:33 – A Contrarian Approach? 49:26 – Timeframe & Questions 54:04 – M&A Deals & Newmont 57:26 – Management & Mine Cycles 59:57 – Exploration Cap-Ex 1:04:10 – Other Mkt. Sectors 1:10:29 – Private Placements 1:12:44 – Lessons Learned 1:17:33 – Offers & Wrap Up
12:20 – Highlight Clip
Talking Points From This Episode
Rick Rule emphasizes the importance of attending conferences for knowledge and connections.
Now failing at retirement, Mr. Rule continues to engage in work due to his passion for the industry.
Macroeconomic factors, such as inflation and debt, could positively impact gold and silver prices.
Rick Rule has dedicated his entire adult life to many aspects of natural resources securities investing. Besides the knowledge and experience gained in a long and focused career, he has a global network of contacts in the natural resources and finance sectors.
Mr. Rule is a frequent speaker at industry conferences and is regularly interviewed for radio, television, print, and online media outlets concerning natural resources investment and industry topics. Prominent natural resources-oriented newsletters and advisories frequently quote him. Mr. Rule and his team have expertise in many resource sectors, including agriculture, alternative energy, forestry, oil and gas, mining, and water.
Mr. Rule is particularly active in private placement markets, having originated in hundreds of debt and equity transactions with private, pre-public, and public companies.
Keith Weiner: The Fed Will be More Proactive than Ever to Stop a Crisis
Oct 28, 2024
Tom Bodrovics and Keith Weiner delve into the intricacies of fundamental price and basis rates in the gold and silver markets during their conversation on Palisades. The Gold Standard Institute president and Monetary Metals CEO, elucidates how their model offers insights into market tensions and potential price movements by determining where the market would settle if all futures speculation were to unwind. Keith also discusses lease rates, which reflect metal abundance or scarcity, in relation to market evaluations for gold and silver investments.
The conversation revolves around the disparity between the costs of producing and refining gold and silver, with significant spreads for refiners. Although mining costs are essential considerations, Keith argues that all potential gold supply remains in circulation due to its value and desirability. Keith challenges the Quantity Theory of Money and Milton Friedman’s treatment of gold and printed dollars as equivalent, emphasizing their differences in origin and effects on the economy.
Weiner also discusses the implications of an ever-growing US national debt and interest payments. He argues that the world operates on a dollar basis, creating a relentless bid on the dollar despite its growing debt. Keith discusses commercial real estate bubble and the impact on banks and zombie companies, raising concerns about potential insolvency due to rising interest rates and loan asset markdowns.
The conversation concludes with discussions about upcoming financial crises, including the ‘everything bubble,’ and the potential dilemmas facing the Federal Reserve in addressing it, given the larger debt levels and more significant interest rate hikes than during previous periods. Keith highlights the importance of creating an honest monetary system based on gold, emphasizing market-based alternatives to Keynesian philosophy and personal opt-out options to avoid capital debasement.
Talking Points From This Episode 0:00 – Introduction 0:40 – Measuring Price of PMs 8:32 – Current Market Temps 10:40 – Analysis & Lease Rates 14:14 – All-In Production Costs 19:22 – Do Fundamentals Matter? 22:57 – Qty. Theory of Money 35:27 – Debt & Interest Payments 41:37 – Commercial Debt & Banks 55:26 – Bank Bailouts & Fed 59:40 – Central Planning Problems 1:06:30 – Kicking Cans & Politics 1:11:32 – Any Possible Solutions? 1:23:18 – Net Worth & Risk/Return 1:31:10 – Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Gold and silver market insights using fundamental price analysis.
Challenging Quantity Theory of Money and gold vs. printed dollars equivalence.
Implications of US debt, commercial real estate bubbles, Fed bank bailouts, and zombie companies.
Keith Weiner is the founder and CEO of Monetary Metals, an investment firm that is unlocking the productivity of gold. Most people regard gold as a dry asset, to lock away in a vault, incurring storage fees. Many are waiting for it to rise in price.
Keith and Monetary Metals are on a mission to change this.
Gold should once again serve to finance productive enterprises and extinguish debts. The dollar performs one of these functions, but not the other. Bitcoin cannot finance anything, as no business can borrow a currency that’s expected to go up a hundred times. Gold is the one thing that fills both roles, par excellence.
Keith writes and speaks extensively, based on his unique views of gold, the dollar, credit, the bond market, and interest rates. When he is not working on the business, he is developing his theory of monetary science, and an arbitrage theory of economics.
Keith also serves as founder and President of the Gold Standard Institute USA. His work was instrumental in the passing of gold legal tender laws in the state of Arizona in 2017. He has met with central bankers, legislators, and government officials around the world.
Dr. Judy Shelton: Why Shouldn’t the Dollar be as Good as Gold?
Oct 23, 2024
Tom welcomes a well known and interesting guest for the first time to the show, Dr. Judy Shelton. Judy is Senior Fellow at the Independent Institute and author of Good as Gold, passionately advocates for sound money as a moral obligation of governments to their citizens. Sound money, according to Shelton, should maintain its value over time, acting as an unchanging standard for economic planning and transactions. She criticizes the Federal Reserve’s policy of debasing the U.S. dollar through inflation targeting, which undermines its purchasing power and creates inequality in society.
The Federal Reserve was initially established to provide an elastic currency that addressed seasonal economic fluctuations. However, the role of the Fed has shifted significantly over time, leading to concerns about its growing dependence on the government for budgeting needs and potential consequences for the economy and small businesses.
Shelton argues for market-determined interest rates, pointing to historical examples like the gold standard. She also highlights the importance of accurate data in monetary policy decision-making and critiques central banks’ conflicting policies on a global scale that can lead to currency wars and instability in international trade.
Shelton advocates for a new international monetary system anchored by a gold convertible long-term US Treasury bond, which would promote stability and accountability in international transactions. She recalls her unsuccessful nomination to the Federal Reserve and expresses her belief that economic growth under President Trump’s agenda and Elon Musk’s involvement could lead to controlling the budget and promoting sound money. Shelton urges for less central planning by governments, believing there is a collective yearning for trustworthy, stable money in society.
The interview concludes with Dr. Judy Shelton expressing her gratitude for the opportunity to discuss her ideas and the success of her book “Good as Gold” on Amazon’s charts. She encourages listeners to get radical and demand sound money from their governments for a more prosperous economy based on individual liberty.
Time Stamp References: 0:00 – Introduction 0:45 – Sound Money & Morality 2:27 – Money Vs. Currency 4:32 – Price Stability? 11:52 – Fed Control & Hubris 18:30 – Central Planning & Mkts 24:03 – Fed ‘Independence’ 27:20 – Pricing Money Free Mkt. 36:10 – C.B. Global Effects 39:34 – BRICS & Gold? 44:34 – U.S. Gold Bonds? 55:30 – Golds History of Restraint 59:15 – Politics & Financial Plans 1:01:59 – Nominee & ‘Extreme Views’ 1:10:22 – Book ‘Good as Gold’ 1:11:50 – Get Radical & Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Dr. Judy Shelton advocates for sound money as a moral obligation of governments to ensure economic stability and planning through unchanging currency value.
The Federal Reserve’s inflation targeting policy weakens U.S. dollar purchasing power, leading to inequality and potential consequences for the economy.
Shelton proposes a new international monetary system anchored by a gold convertible long-term US Treasury bond for stability in global transactions.
Dr. Judy Shelton is a senior fellow at Independent Institute, former chairman of the National Endowment for Democracy, and former US director of the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development. She has provided testimony before the Senate and has been consulted on international monetary issues by the White House and the Pentagon. She is the author of multiple books and has written for the Wall Street Journal and Financial Times.
David Collum: Part Two – A 40-Year Correction in Price and Attitude is Coming to the Markets
Oct 22, 2024
In case you missed part one, the full version is available on X, Rumble and various Podcast apps.
In part two, the discussion continues around Dave's skepticism towards various economic topics, including the Federal Reserve's rate cuts and market valuations. He argues for a return to realistic expectations and understanding debt and returns.
The Professor expresses concerns about current leaders, financialization, and growing geopolitical realignments.
Dave envisions gold becoming the world's reserve currency within the next decade and expresses his high conviction in gold investments, advocating for cash during market downturns and sharing past experiences. He criticizes the Bank of England's selling tactics and platinum investment opportunities despite instability in South Africa.
Lastly Collum discussed his recent podcast comment experiences, the declining value of college degrees, and proposed a funding plan for student loans.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Lack of Introduction0:19 - Staying Objective & Fed Cut s10:38 - Hedonic Adjustments13:54 - Easy Money & Bad Signals22:32 - General Vs. Specialization26:13 - BRICS Realignment30:42 - 40-Year Bear Market36:16 - Commercial Real Estate40:10 - Gold & Brown's Bottom43:39 - Platinum & Miners45:23 - Travel & Impressions50:04 - Opportunity & Miners52:29 - Podcast Comments & Tops54:40 - 1925 S&P To Now & M257:00 - Ponzi Demographics1:02:09 - Constructive Comments?1:05:24 - Education is Rotting1:10:00 - Wrap Up
Guest LinksTwitter: https://x.com/davidbcollumWebsite: https://collum.chem.cornell.edu/
David B. Collum is an American Chemist and professor at Cornell University. He currently teaches a graduate Chemistry and Chemical biology course.
He also runs the Collum group, which focuses on how aggregation and solvation dictate the reactivity and selectivity of organolithium compounds commonly used by synthetic chemists in academia and the pharmaceutical industry.
Ph.D., Columbia University, MA Columbia University, BS Cornell University.
David Collum: Part One – Bannable Banter – The Topics That Tiptoe on Trouble
Oct 21, 2024
https://rumble.com/v5jh4sk-david-collum-part-one-bannable-banter-the-topics-that-tiptoe-on-trouble.html
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back the always entertaining Professor Dave Collum for a pre-election discussion. David is Professor of Chemistry at Cornell University and a forthright Market Commentator.
Collum expresses his concerns about the election's candidates and their historical roles. He suggests that Trump, despite having moral weaknesses, may have matured with a stronger conviction than Harris, who he believes lacks intellect and understanding of her role in history.
Collum touches on morally unguided leaders, stating people are tired of such individuals, which could influence the election's outcome. He also discusses potential violence surrounding the election and the impact of mail-in ballots on fairness perception. Furthermore, he shares thoughts on societal moral decay and the impacts on markets and relationships.
Dave critiques FDR's actions during WWII, referencing books like American Betrayal, The Red Thread, and New Deal or Raw Deal.
The conversation delves back into politics and ethics. One person regretted dismissing JD Vance and saw Kamala Harris' "unburdened by what has been" as a potentially effective message. They discussed free speech, accountability, and concerns about weaponizing of the justice system.
The discussion also questions the phenomenon of gender reassignment among young people, suggesting it might be rooted in a lack of meaning or purpose. They criticized questionable practices and silenced voices regarding the medical community and government's role.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:54 - Elections & Expectations9:20 - Internet Friends12:09 - Censorship & Control16:30 - FDR & New Deal19:52 - USSR Made In USA29:12 - Underestimating Dems.32:26 - Judicial Weaponization36:18 - Age of Unaccountability43:25 - Kids, & Finding Meaning48:45 - Covid & Experiments58:44 - Influencing the Outcome1:01:06 - Students & Tribalism
Guest LinksTwitter: https://x.com/davidbcollumWebsite: https://collum.chem.cornell.edu/
David B. Collum is an American Chemist and professor at Cornell University. He currently teaches a graduate Chemistry and Chemical biology course.
He also runs the Collum group, which focuses on how aggregation and solvation dictate the reactivity and selectivity of organolithium compounds commonly used by synthetic chemists in academia and the pharmaceutical industry.
Ph.D., Columbia University, MA Columbia University, BS Cornell University.
John Rubino: We Have No Solutions Except a Choice of Crises
Oct 17, 2024
Tom welcomes back John Rubino, former Wall Street analyst, author and Substacker https://rubino.substack.com for a discussion on the gold mining industry's recent trends during the third quarter earnings reports. Despite the increase in gold prices, mining stocks have underperformed due to factors like rising costs and geopolitical risks. However, strong earning reports from top companies are attracting momentum investors, potentially triggering a bull market for precious metals. John emphasizes the importance of investing psychology and buying undervalued assets during bear markets. He also discusses the cyclicality of mining sector, potential acquisitions following strong earnings, and the significance of both fundamental setups and technical indicators when considering gold and silver investments. Additionally, Russia's decision to buy silver for its strategic reserve fund is affecting the silver market by tightening supply and increasing upward pressure on prices. Despite economic uncertainties, investors are encouraged to seek opportunities in this environment.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:43 - Miners & Earnings4:56 - Underperformance?7:09 - Numerous Good Sectors11:03 - Peaky Bubbles15:28 - Miners, Cycles, & M&A21:14 - Miner Behaviors & Results27:56 - Buyouts & Shareholders30:12 - Technicals/Fundamentals36:42 - Wage Price Spiral41:58 - Russia Buying Silver43:51 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Mining stocks underperformed despite gold price increase due to rising costs and geopolitical risks.
Strong earnings reports from top companies attract momentum investors, potentially sparking precious metals bull market.
Invest in undervalued assets during bear markets for long-term gains; consider both fundamentals and technicals.
Guest LinksSubstack: https://rubino.substack.comBooks: https://tinyurl.com/5buyvy6v
John Rubino is a former Wall Street financial analyst and author or co-author of five books, including The Money Bubble: What To Do Before It Pops. He founded the popular financial website DollarCollapse.com in 2004 and sold it in 2022, and now publishes on Substack.
Michael Oliver: Silver Could Surpass Its All-Time High Within The Next 18 Months
Oct 16, 2024
In this episode of Palisades Gold Radio, your host Tom Bodrovics invites back Michael Oliver from Momentum Structural Analysis to discuss the stock market's present condition in relation to the upcoming US election. Michael expresses his view that the markets have not fully accounted for the uncertainty and potential instability arising from the election. He references historical precedents of market reactions following unpredictable election results, specifically the bull market peaks in 2000 and 2007, where interest rate cuts after periods of hikes led to significant downturns.
Michael shares his perspective on the economy, emphasizing that the Fed has shifted its focus from inflation control to defending the economy due to Powell's concerns over an inadequate job market, particularly in manufacturing and essential industries, and a looming debt crisis. He discusses the potential consequences for the bond market and gold prices, suggesting that when the stock market corrects, data points will shift, prompting Fed concern about solvency and the need to roll over substantial amounts of debt with increasing interest costs.
Michael discusses the potential for a government debt crisis and its impact on gold, predicting a short-term rally in T-bonds as assets flow out of stocks into perceived safety but an ultimately downward trend in terms of price and upward yield. He also highlights the significance of commodities related to agriculture, energy, and base metals following gold's lead during market upswings.
Michael explains the correlation between stock markets and the US dollar index, emphasizing that increased losses may create demand for the dollar but warning that historically, major swings in the dollar index have followed the stock market trends rather than assisting it in times of potential breakdowns.
Michael uses an analogy to describe gold's relationship with silver, viewing it as a 'mama market' with silver acting as an unpredictable 'wild dog on a leash.' He explains that while gold sets trends, silver exhibits seemingly irrational swings but ultimately follows the same direction. The underperforming gold miners GDX are expected to outperform gold in the future, and silver's industrial significance could lead to increased attention once prices take off.
Predicting significant price increases for gold, Michael suggests that conditions such as stock market instability, central bank issues, and government debt markets could drive a surge reminiscent of the late 1970s and early 1980s, where gold experienced eightfold growth.
Michael concludes with a discussion of the potential for market instability due to unpredictable outcomes from the US election, with both parties experiencing desperation and panic contributing to an unstable stock market. He also references Javier Milei's presidency in Argentina as a reminder of the need for painful changes in response to decades of mismanagement and anticipates an intriguing and consequential period ahead.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:31 - Markets & The Elections8:04 - Yen & the Nikk ei11:46 - Fed & Liquidity14:15 - Bond Markets & Service20:45 - Gold & Commodities24:33 - Dollar Crisis & Demand27:16 - Complexities & Timeframes32:50 - Sell Offs & Metals35:52 - Silver Vs. Gold Spreads41:32 - Metals & Fundamentals46:19 - Gold Miners & Signals49:43 - Earnings & Margins51:38 - Miners & Mining Tiers55:16 - Debt Crisis & The Metals1:02:42 - Political Upsets1:06:51 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Michael Oliver warns of potential market instability due to US election uncertainty, referencing historical precedents.
Fed's focus shifts from inflation control to economy defense amid job market concerns and debt crisis.
Gold predicted to surge with conditions like stock instability, central bank issues, and government debt markets.
Guest Links:Alasdair MacLeod Video: https://vimeo.com/1017577311/aaaf32f856Website: http://www.
Feargus O’Conner Greenwood: Beyond the Illusion – Exposing the Lies Created by the Financial System
Oct 14, 2024
https://rumble.com/v5insh9-feargus-oconner-greenwood-beyond-the-illusion-exposing-the-lies-created-by-.html
Tom Bodrovics welcomes Feargus O'Connor Greenwood, author of "180 Degrees: Unlearn the Lies That You've Been Taught to Believe." This conversation centers around understanding the financial system and changing perspectives. Feargus wrote his book due to widespread deception and manipulation in society, aiming to expose deceit, break the hold of authority, and equip readers with effective communication tools. He believes that the financial system exists not for individual prosperity but as a tool to create money from nothing and exert control. Money has functions and attributes, and Feargus stresses the importance of understanding its origins and creation.
Feargus discusses the historical manipulation of currencies by entities like the Bank of England and the Federal Reserve, arguing these institutions have caused economic depressions and perpetuated corruption. He believes fixing the monetary system is essential for solving global issues and restoring free market incentives. He sees gold, silver, and crypto as safe havens against potential hyperinflation and anticipates a significant price move in silver due to increasing demand.
Feargus discusses the potential for physical demand of metals to potentially break markets. Technological advancements are also discussed as having potential impacts on the markets. Feargus believes Bitcoin will have a role as both a decentralized currency bringing freedom and like any tool has potential for tyrannical applications.
The importance of truth, and understanding situations through a lens of proving what didn't happen rather than what did is explored. Feargus also discusses the concept of empire collapse and symptoms of decay. False flags are defined as covert operations designed to deceive and identified by broken emergency protocols, hidden evidence, and perpetrators linked with intelligence services.
Feargus discusses effective communication strategies to deploy when explaining non-mainstream topics. These include starting small, avoiding arguments, using analogies, and practicing active listening. Feargus' book provides further insights into these strategies. The conversation concludes by discussing the importance of morality and ethics as essential elements for the survival of any society.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:56 - Systemic Lies & His Book4:03 - Financial System Purpose8:20 - Money From Nothing10:20 - Infinite Money = Corruption12:16 - First Order Problems15:22 - Money Supply Booms/Busts19:04 - Central Bank Origins22:30 - Savings Vs. Inflation25:15 - Silver & Manipulation29:29 - Purpose of the B.I.S.32:25 - Possible Solutions38:24 - Origin of Bitcoin?40:48 - Describing Reality45:47 - Empire Collapse Cycles48:37 - Broken Protocols54:17 - Facing Truth & Reality57:43 - Elections & Fraud1:01:08 - Ten Solutions1:20:00 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Book: https://www.amazon.com/180-Degrees-Unlearn-Taught-Believe/dp/1915236002/EMail: feargusgreenwood@protonmail.com
Talking Points From This Episode
Feargus Greenwood exposes financial system manipulation by entities like the Bank of England and Federal Reserve, advocating for understanding money's functions and considering gold, silver, or crypto as safe havens against potential inflation.
Historical currency manipulations by institutions have led to economic instability; fixing the monetary system is crucial for global issues with Feargus predicting a significant price move in silver.
Discussing false flags, covert operations deceptively identified by broken protocols, hidden evidence, and intelligence service links; effective communication strategies including proving non-occurrence, starting small, avoiding arguments, using analogies, and active listening.
Feargus is the author of 180 Degrees: Unlearn the Lies You’ve Been Taught to Believe. Over 10,
Tavi Costa: We Have Never Seen a Time Like this for Miners
Oct 09, 2024
Tom welcomes back Tavi Costa, Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital, for an enlightening conversation about the gold industry and commodity space. Costa expresses his views on the current market landscape, suggesting that the Federal Reserve's rate cuts could signal a structural bear market for the US dollar, with significant consequences for inflation, gold, and emerging market stocks. He also explores the potential labor market weakness and its possible link to an impending recession, emphasizing the significance of investing in industries with compelling growth prospects.
Costa delves into the subject of gold and silver markets, debating the importance of focusing on percentage gains versus supply and demand factors. He points out the long-term underperformance of the mining industry relative to gold due to a dearth of new discoveries, delayed capital flows from larger miners to smaller ones, and the general reluctance to invest in this sector.
Despite these hurdles, Tavi remains hopeful about the future of the mining industry, viewing it as a promising venture rather than a mere gamble. He stress the value of acquiring expertise, focusing on scalability, and keeping abreast of market developments. When it comes to assessing miners, explorers, and developers, Tavi advocates for zeroing in on successful ventures and overlooked assets for potential value creation.
Costa voices his concerns about analysts' inconsistent forecasts, particularly with respect to gold prices and future earnings, regarding this disparity as a lucrative opportunity for savvy investors. He also delves into the role of royalty companies in the mining industry and their influence on various sectors. Tavi stress the significance of recognizing incentives and their impact on industry dynamics.
Lastly, they explores the substantial decline in mining investment and the repercussions of government funding and Chinese competition in securing mining assets. Tavi expresses enthusiasm for the prospective rewards in the mining sector.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introductions0:55 - Market Turning Point4:23 - Weak Dollar Outlook11:04 - Labor & Job Numbers15:34 - Inflation & Commodities22:00 - 2024 P.M. Performance29:33 - Gold Vs. Miners35:03 - Investment or Speculation39:33 - Analyzing Mine Sector48:36 - Royalty Plays?51:53 - Shift to Resources59:06 - Strategic Metals1:07:28 - Capital Necessities1:10:16 - Chinese Investment1:12:36 - Vision & Success1:14:12 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:X: https://x.com/tavicostaX: https://x.com/crescat_capitalWebsite: https://crescat.net
Talking Points From This Episode
Tavi Costa predicts a US dollar bear market due to Fed rate cuts, impacting gold, inflation, and emerging markets.
Tavi emphasizes expertise, scalability, and market knowledge for success in mining industry.
Tavi Costa sees potential in overlooked mining assets, despite challenges like analyst uncertainty and declining capital investment.
Otavio ("Tavi") Costa is a Member and Portfolio Manager at Crescat Capital and has been with the firm since 2013. He built Crescat's macro model that identifies the current stage of the U.S. economic cycle through a combination of 16 factors.
His research is regularly featured in financial publications such as Bloomberg, The Wall Street Journal, CCN, Financial Post, The Globe and Mail, Real Vision, and Reuters. Tavi is a native of São Paulo, Brazil, and fluent in Portuguese, Spanish, and English. Before joining Crescat, he worked with the underwriting of financial products and international business at Braservice, a large logistics company in Brazil.
Tavi graduated cum laude from Lindenwood University in St. Louis with a B.A. degree in Business Administration with an emphasis in Finance and a minor in Spanish. Tavi played NCAA Division 1 tennis for Liberty University.
David Murrin: Rasing The Alarm, Why The Western World Must Change Course or Face Decline
Oct 04, 2024
Tom Bodrovics welcoms back global forecaster and author David Murrin to discuss the significance of historical understanding for predicting complex geopolitical events and avoiding future conflicts. Murrin shares his belief in the repetition of historical patterns due to human unconsciousness, emphasizing the importance of studying history from multiple perspectives. He believes that the current geopolitical situation between the West and China/Russia could lead to World War Three, highlighting historical cycles as potential catalysts for conflict.
Murrin also shares his theory on five stages of empires, which he's applies to Britain, Germany, and America's power dynamics. He warns about the challenges facing China due to economic instability and military expansion, urging strategic thinking to counteract this challenge. Murrin discusses China's economic shift towards industry growth, and the potential implications of the U.S.'s rate-cutting cycle.
David emphasizes the importance of understanding war blindness, a dangerous tendency for denial and appeasement in Western society, and the potential consequences of inflation due to economic power shifts between democratic and autocratic systems. He encourages individual action and the embrace of lateral thinking as crucial steps for personal growth and societal progress. Murrin also discusses the potential for wars to promote accelerated societal evolution and encourages understanding historical cycles to prevent future conflicts.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction2:15 - Perspectives & Predictions7:04 - Humanities Blind Alley15:08 - History & Narrative Bias18:32 - China & Economic Issues28:29 - China's Strength?30:40 - U.S. Monetary Policy34:44 - China & Commodities38:24 - War Monger?42:44 - Stimulus & Recession?46:00 - End of Globalization?47:34 - Economic Warfare & China50:55 - Warning & Avoidance53:18 - Strategic Thrivers59:24 - Wrap Up/Conclusion
Talking Points From This Episode
David Murrin stresses historical patterns' repetition and their role in predicting geopolitical conflicts.
He identifies five stages of empires and warns about China's economic instability and military expansion.
Murrin advocates understanding war blindness, lateral thinking, and historical cycles to prevent future conflicts.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/GlobalForecastrWebsite: https://www.davidmurrin.co.uk/Lateral Vs Linear Thought: https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=F_v5720RPmw&t=636s
David Murrin began his unique career in the oil exploration business amongst the jungles of Papua New Guinea and the southwestern Pacific islands. There, he engaged with the numerous tribes of the Sepik River, exploring the mineral composition of the region. Before the age of adventure tourism, this region was highly dangerous, very uncertain and local indigenous groups were often hostile and cannibalistic. David's work with the PNG tribespeople catalyzed his theories on collective human behavior.
In the early 1980s, David embarked on a new career, joining JP Morgan in London. Watching his colleges on the trading floors, he quickly identified modern society also behaved collectively. He was sent to New York on JPMs highly rated internal MBA equivalent finance program. Once back in London, he traded FX, bonds, equities, and commodities on JPMs first European Prop desk. In 1991, he founded and managed JPMs highly successful European Market Analysis Group, developing new behavioral investment techniques which were utilized to deploy and manage risk at the highest level of the bank.
In 1993, David founded his first hedge fund, Apollo Asset Management, and, in 1997, co-founded Emergent Asset Management as CIO. His primary role was overseeing trading across all fund products as well as being particularly active in the firm's private equity business. He co-founded Emvest, Emergents African land fund, in 2008 and acted as its Chairman until its sale from the group in 2011.
Matthew Pipenburg: The Economic Implications of Inflation, War, & Wealth Inequality
Oct 02, 2024
Tom welcomes back Matthew Pipenburg from Von Greyerz Gold Switzerland to discusses the seemingly inevitable economic decline. Matthew discusses the relevance of Ernest Hemingway's perspectives on inflation and war to today's economic landscape. Pipenburg emphasized the potential for political opportunists to manipulate conflicts and economic instability for their advantage, leading to long-term ruin. He also touches upon Hemingway's background and how his experiences shaped his views on these issues.
The conversation shifts towards the importance of addressing misaligned incentives within systems and the potential dangers of fascist-like tendencies in modern politics. He discusses the implications of wealth inequality, consolidated power, and corporate influence on politics and decision-making bodies. He advocates for a reevaluation of anti-trust laws to combat monopolies in various sectors, including media, banking, agriculture, and tech.
Tom then asks about the significance of political intelligence and leadership. They discussed the historical context leading to economic crises and the implications of record-breaking public debt on society and the economy.
Pipenburg compares the economic situation Nixon faced in the 1970s with the present day, arguing that we have entered a permanent ruin stage from a period of temporary prosperity due to unprecedented issuance of debt. Matthew also explores the impact of monetary dilution on various asset classes, including Bitcoin, gold, and the S&P 500, in relation to the diminishing purchasing power of the U.S. dollar.
The conversation focuses on the cyclicality of the gold and silver markets and their long-term trends due to the loss of trust in fiat money and central banks seeking alternatives. He also discusses the potential implications of countries like China and Russia returning to a gold-backed currency as part of their economic strategies. Lastly, he encourages patience, objectivity, and critical thinking to protect against potential chaos.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:03 - A Timely Quote10:00 - Systems & Incentives21:47 - Harris & Political Games24:13 - Gold, Nixon, & Politics36:10 - 70s Inflation & Now41:40 - Debt & Consequences46:13 - Expectations This Cycle52:24 - Monetary Dilution 'Solution'1:01:02 - P.M. Price Cyclicality1:09:50 - Gold Backing Currency?1:16:18 - Objectivity & Road Ahead1:21:06 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Why Hemingway's insights on inflation, war, and political manipulation are still relevant today.
Addressing misaligned incentives within systems to prevent long-term ruin.
Exploring the economic implications of record-breaking public debt and importance of real leadership and democracy.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/GoldSwitzerlandWebsite: https://goldswitzerland.com/Articles: https://signalsmatter.com/Book (Amazon): https://tinyurl.com/pvpfmy8c
Matthew Piepenburg is a Partner of Von Greyerz and the author of the popular book, "Rigged to Fail". Matt is fluent in French, German, and English. He is a graduate of Brown (BA), Harvard (MA), and the University of Michigan (JD). His widely-respected reports on macro conditions and the changing behavior of risk assets are published regularly at SignalsMatter.com.
Justin Huhn: Timing the Market With Nuclear Energy’s Perfect Alignment
Oct 01, 2024
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Justin Huhn, the founder and publisher of Uranium Insider newsletter. Tom starts the conversation by asking about the current supply side dynamics of the uranium market. Huhn explains that most models suggest market balance around 2029-2031 but expresses concern about meeting demand beyond this point due to declining rates of existing mine production. The physical uranium market remains structurally undersupplied, and midterm fuel supply developments indicate a significant shortfall.
The discussion then delves into the historical context of the nuclear market, highlighting the shift in public perception from negative sentiment to favorable views today due to clean energy associations. The tech industry's involvement and China's aggressive buying add to the market dynamics. However, challenges remain, such as financial institutions' reluctance to fund new nuclear builds and cost concerns.
Huhn then explores the unique long-term contracting market of utilities, which account for over 80% of their uranium requirements. Flex provisions have been used during periods of low or high prices but are being phased out in new contracts due to the current seller's market. He also discusses the potential implications of Russia restricting uranium supply to 'unfriendly' countries, causing significant disruptions and the potential ramifications for conversion and enrichment services.
Despite historically low inflation-adjusted uranium prices following a rapid increase in the early 2010s, utilities have been securing new contracts outside of Russia to bolster their inventories. The current price environment is bullish for the sector's equity recovery, which has already started, with term and spot prices at levels not seen in a decade. Additionally, there are ongoing discussions about uranium equities lagging behind commodity prices. Huhn also mentions potential impacts of U.S. elections which could negatively impact markets.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:50 - Uranium Supply/Demand7:38 - Historical Parallels12:40 - Tech Sector & Nuclear20:54 - Flex Contract Provisions28:58 - Uranium Inflation Adj.34:10 - Uranium Price & Equities43:06 - Sprott SPUT Application?45:50 - Russia & Unfriendlies50:54 - Elections & Outcomes55:23 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The uranium market is structurally undersupplied with physical uranium, leading to a significant shortfall compared to demand.
Utilities, which account for over 80% of uranium requirements, are securing new contracts to bolster their inventories due to bullish price environment.
Russia's potential restriction on uranium supply could cause significant disruptions and increased prices for conversion and enrichment services.
Guest Links:Website: https://www.uraniuminsider.com/Newsletter: https://www.uraniuminsider.com/newsletterTwitter: https://twitter.com/UraniumInsiderNuclear Now - Oliver Stone: https://www.imdb.com/title/tt21376908/
Justin is the Founder and Publisher of the Uranium Insider Pro Newsletter. Through the combination of rigorous fundamental analysis and Justin's thorough understanding of technical analysis, determinations are made for select companies to be included on Uranium Insider Pro's "Focus List," as well as the most opportune times for entry or exit.
Justin is frequently asked to offer his commentary on various media forums, including Crux Investor, Smith Weekly, Palisades Gold Radio, Mining Stock Education, and Mining Stock Daily. He also regularly participates in the post-earnings commentary that is broadcast immediately after industry majors release quarterly earnings.
Justin is devoted to bringing value to those that are taking their first look at the uranium sector. Until July 2020, he distributed a complimentary newsletter as an educational tool to those investors seeking to familiarize themselves with the complexities and opportunities offered by the uranium sector and the uran...
Steve St. Angelo: Exponential Debt Cycle is Past the Point of No Return
Sep 27, 2024
Tom welcomes back Steve St. Angelo of the SRSrocco Report for a discussion on the record-high prices of gold and silver. St. Angelo suggests these levels for silver could be a new floor as they've historically returned to production costs following price spikes. The average cost of primary silver production is around $26 an ounce, taking taxes and developmental costs into account.
St. Angelo stresses the importance of distinguishing investment demand from industrial demand when analyzing the silver market dynamics. A decade ago, there was a significant silver surplus due to decreased industrial demand which has since reversed with increased investment demand. Industrial demand is expected to consume all available supply, making additional investment demand potentially price-volatile.
Steve explores the impact of energy scarcity and continued money printing on production costs, driving up gold and silver prices due to inflationary pressures. They discuss the possibility of a market correction offering the last chance to buy silver at present rates.
Steve and Tom delve into the relationship between expanding money supply, debt, federal funds rate, and silver price. Looking towards the period leading up to 2025, a market correction is anticipated due to increasing unemployment and possible employment data revisions. Economic weakness could lead to reduced interest rates and more money printing, instigating inflation and purchasing power reduction. However, Commitment of Traders reports may not accurately reflect demand.
The global silver mine supply and output have been declining since 2015, necessitating existing inventories to bridge the deficit. This imbalance could lead to a substantial correction when prices significantly surpass production costs. Concerns about marginal silver supply include transparent and non-transparent inventories, solar industry demand, and copper prices as indicators of industrial demand and potential recession.
Steve discusses the shift from LBMA to ETF silver inventories. Pre-pandemic, there was significant physical buying leading to expanded ETF inventories. However, in 2022, overall LBMA inventories decreased due to Indian purchasing and ETF withdrawals.
Finally, Steve discusses the merits of assets such as Bitcoin, gold, and silver. While some view Bitcoin as a digital counterpart to gold, Steve contends that saving in Bitcoin is not the same as saving in precious metals. This is due to Bitcoin mining causing considerable share dilution and due to the energy costs.
Steve advocates understanding asset worth based on economic progress versus past activity, emphasizing energy's role in asset value, and preparing for future energy realities.
Talking Points From This Episode
Silver's new floor could be around average production cost ($26/oz).
Industrial demand vs investment demand crucial in analyzing silver market dynamics.
Economic instability, the energy cliff, inflation, and supply concerns may lead to significant price volatility.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:22 - New Silver Price Floor3:30 - Miners & All-In Costs5:55 - Energy & Money Supply8:44 - Types of Metal Demand11:35 - Money Printing & Silver15:13 - Purchasing Power & Rates17:06 - Fed Cuts & Corrections21:37 - Utility of COT Reports23:52 - Mine Supply & Output28:44 - Silver & Manufacturing31:54 - Grid Stability & Solar34:40 - LBMA Silver Trends37:06 - Miner Production & Shares40:35 - Dedollarization & Gold47:50 - Dr. Copper & Economy51:34 - Energy & Volatile Mkts.54:13 - Energy, GDP, & Debt55:20 - Federal Deficits Chart57:10 - Trends & Collapse1:00:48 - U.S. Spending & Budget1:02:50 - Bitcoin & Precious Metals1:06:10 - Energy Store of Value1:09:25 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://srsroccoreport.com/Twitter: https://twitter.com/SRSroccoReportYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCED7G7CZfqdSV9zttlr1M_g
Independent researcher Steve St.
Bob Coleman: Identifying Hype From Education in the Metals Space
Sep 27, 2024
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Bob Coleman from Idaho Armored Vaults. They explore current trends and insights in the precious metals markets. With gold and silver reaching record highs, excitement for investors should be palpable, but retail participation remains low due to factors like premiums and negative sentiment. High net worth individuals continue driving demand and the impacts of Indian gold and silver imports and buying activity was also discussed.
The conversation delves into the dynamics between managed money funds and swap dealers, the role of options markets, and the shift from COMEX to ETFs for investment. Bob also examines recent changes in margin requirements by the CME and their potential impact on market trends. Coleman emphasizes the importance of understanding dealer business models and avoiding sensational and fear-based reasons for buying precious metals. He warned against manipulative dealers, inflating prices through social media tactics, and advises careful reading of storage agreements.
Coleman further discusses physical precious metals demand from high net worth individuals due to tax planning, estate planning, counterparty risk concerns, and potential election policies. However, lease rates pulling back and increasing COMEX inventories indicates lower physical demand. Coleman also cautioned investors about overly sensational or fear-based reasons for buying precious metals. Investors should be cautious of agreements that move liability to the client. He emphasizes the importance of being prepared for market volatility, consider taking profits or protective measures, and understanding spot dealer practices.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:14 - Market Status & Highs6:52 - Shorts & Metals Demand12:00 - P.M. ETF Flows/Demand17:05 - Demand Drivers19:04 - Lease Rates & Premiums24:02 - Compare Prices & Premiums29:04 - User Agreement Red Flags33:03 - Sensationalism & Fear40:15 - Selling Back Metal44:00 - ETFS & Metal Claims49:44 - Elections & Narratives53:00 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
High net worth individuals are driving precious metals demand despite low retail participation due to premiums and negative sentiment.
Understand dealer business models to avoid manipulative practices and sensational reasons for buying precious metals.
Tax reductions, elections, and geopolitical events significantly influence precious metals market trends.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/profitsplusidWebsite: https://www.goldsilvervault.com/
Bob Coleman is a Registered Investment Advisor since 1992. In 2001, he founded Profits Plus Capital Management, LLC (RIA) and Dollars and Sense Growth Fund. Recognizing the necessity for physical metal storage, he founded Idaho Armored Vaults and Gold Silver Vault in 2008. They are a distinguished and respected leader in the precious metals industry specializing in storage, transportation, shipping logistics, and security.
Luke Gromen: A U.S. Recession Remains Highly Unlikely
Sep 24, 2024
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Luke Gromen, the founder and president of FFTT (Forest for the Trees). They discuss the implications of the recent 50 basis point interest rate cut by the Fed and its potential impact on the US fiscal situation. According to Gromen, this cut signifies growing concerns from the Fed about the US true interest expense reaching an unprecedented level since the COVID-19 pandemic. The Fed's two options are either allowing true interest expense to crowd out global dollar markets or cutting rates to alleviate it and stimulate receipts with a weaker dollar and higher inflation.
Gromen also mentions four destabilizing events: oil prices exceeding $80 per barrel, an increased US deficit outlook, the Japanese 10-year yield breaking through, and a politically disruptive event occurring in August 2023, which led to a US downgrade. With tighter financial conditions for the private sector but loosest for the US government despite interest rate sensitivity, Gromen predicts a potential gap between the Fed funds rate and two-year discounts, suggesting a recession instead of a soft landing.
Luke also touches upon the connection between treasury receipts and recessions, where they usually decrease significantly during a typical economic downturn. With the US already experiencing an 8% deficit of GDP, a potential recession could push it up to 13-14%, making the country less attractive for long-term debt investment, potentially leading to inflation and economic instability.
Gromen believes that large investors or 'whales' are influencing financial markets by buying gold, stocks, and selling Treasuries in anticipation of the Fed's response to positive real rates. The scenario is likened to a movie where smaller traders react month-to-month while whales steer the economic 'Titanic'. The text also outlines two potential bearish scenarios: austerity measures from the US government causing a downturn in all markets or capital controls and taxation driving investors to seek safe havens outside of the US.
The ongoing debate about introducing a sovereign wealth fund by both Trump and Biden administrations is discussed, with concerns over its feasibility given the current financial situation. Instead of running a surplus, governments plan to borrow money and invest it in assets, creating a 'sovereign wealth fund with an asterisk'. The speaker also explores alternative solutions like increasing spending or rebuilding domestic production capability but acknowledges that someone must ultimately own the $35 trillion in US debt.
Luke discusses various economic ideas and scenarios impacting the global financial system, including the potential for revaluing gold mechanically to inject more money into the US Treasury or raising its price significantly to invest trillions into the Treasury General Account. The significance of a decreasing Baby Boomer entitlement spend due to an increase in mortality rates and China's approach of allowing the yuan to float against gold are also touched upon. Throughout, there is an emphasis on understanding trade-offs and making informed decisions based on economic realities.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:46 - Feds 50-Basis Point Cut2:47 - 4-Destabilizing Things5:26 - Discounting Recession?10:15 - US Debt Buyers17:04 - Yellen & Stealth QE?19:47 - Yield Curve & Signals21:33 - Refinancing The Debt23:52 - Debt Oscillations25:52 - Math Doesn't Care29:50 - Political Decisions34:40 - Noise & Whales41:14 - Equity Bear Scenarios46:55 - Sovereign 'Debt' Fund50:40 - Grow Out of Debt?55:57 - Possible Solutions?59:05 - China & Dollar1:01:10 - BRICS & US Strategy1:07:18 - Gold/Oil Proxy1:11:30 - Carry Trade Unwind1:13:52 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/lukegromenWebsite: https://fftt-llc.com/
Luke Gromen began his career in the mid-1990s in Research at Midwest Research before moving over to institutional equity sales and becoming a partner. While in sales,
Richard Duncan: America Doesn’t Have to be a Declining Superpower
Sep 23, 2024
Tom welcomes back Richard Duncan, economist and author of 'The Money Revolution.' The discussion revolves around the implications of Duncan's latest work, which challenges conventional economic theories, particularly those rooted in Austrian economics. Their last conversation was over two years ago.
Duncan begins by recapping the ideas presented in his book, including how the unexpected response to the 2008 financial crisis, characterized by trillions of dollars in fiscal stimulus and monetary expansion, did not result in high inflation despite concerns from Austrian economists. He also highlights the shift away from a gold standard and its consequences, such as altered constraints on money creation, government borrowing, and trade deficits.
Furthermore, Duncan discusses the impact of these changes, including increasing income inequality and implications for inflation and wealth growth. The conversation also touches upon the economic environment shaped by the pandemic and its unprecedented fiscal and monetary stimulus measures, which led to high inflation rates.
Despite concerns about high inflation, the economic recovery led to significant wealth growth, enough to pay off the national debt with some money left over.
They discuss the implications of the stimulus and the lingering effects it continues to have on the economy. Richard is a proponent of establishing a sovereign wealth fund for the United States to finance investments in new industries and technologies, such as artificial intelligence, nanotech, biotech, fusion, quantum computing, and genetic engineering. The U.S. currently invests half as much in research and development compared to decades ago, leading to a slowdown in productivity and economic growth.
Additionally, Richard raises concerns about potential market vulnerability from lower interest rates due to the unwinding of the yen carry trade and inflated asset prices in the U.S. He emphasizes the significance of establishing a sovereign wealth fund for the United States and encourages listeners to visit his website, Richard Dunkin Economics dot com, for more information on economic events and their potential market impacts.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:02 - Fed & US Money Creation12:40 - The Pandemic Inflation17:33 - Growth & Technology22:05 - Pandemic Choice & Wealth32:01 - Recent Inflation Causes42:14 - Sovereign Wealth Funds53:28 - Buyers of U.S. Debt?1:03:35 - Dollar Reserve Status1:08:24 - Fed Rate Cut Decision1:12:35 - Yen Carry Trade1:16:09 - Wealth/Income Ratio1:19:18 - Wrap Up
Guest Links:Website: https://www.richardduncaneconomics.com/Twitter: https://x.com/papermoneyecon
Newsletter Offer:https://richardduncaneconomics.comHit subscribe and enter coupon code 'Value' For a 50% discount.
Richard Duncan is the author of four books analyzing the causes and the effects of the economic crises that have brought the global economy to the brink of collapse during recent decades.
The Dollar Crisis: Causes, Consequences, Cures (John Wiley & Sons, 2003, updated 2005), predicted the global economic disaster that began in 2008 with extraordinary accuracy. It was an international bestseller. The Corruption of Capitalism: A strategy to re-balance the global economy and restore sustainable growth (CLSA Books, 2009) described the long series of US policy mistakes responsible for the Crisis of 2008. The New Depression: The Breakdown Of The Paper Money Economy (John Wiley & Sons, 2012) introduced an important new analytical framework, The Quantity Theory of Credit, that explained all aspects of the global economic crisis that began in 2008.
His latest book is The Money Revolution: How to Finance the Next American Century (John Wiley & Sons, 2022).
Since beginning his career as an equities analyst in Hong Kong in 1986, Richard has served as global head of investment strategy at ABN AMRO Asset Management in London, worked as a financial sector specialist for the Worl...
Drew Rathgeber: The Gold & Silver Industry – Who Wins, Who Loses, And Who Really Benefits
Sep 18, 2024
Tom welcomes back experienced trader and creator of ProGoldTrader, Drew Rathgeber to explore issues within the Gold and Silver industry. Drew shares his industry journey, starting in spot markets 20 years ago and transitioning to futures in 2006. He emphasizes regulation's importance, particularly for consumer protections and audits.
They discuss problems like excessive spreads exploiting elderly clients and the need for education. Drew shares his views on social media influencers and their good and bad aspects. The conversation also covers spot markets versus regulated futures markets.
Drew talks about Monex, a company offering the Atlas precious metals investment program. This financing mechanism targeted unsophisticated investors and generated revenue through high fees on trades, resulting in many millions in losses for customers.
They discuss investing in physical gold versus futures contracts, with smaller investments favoring physical gold due to absence of counterparty risk. The conversation touches upon issues surrounding precious metals investments using retirement funds, specifically Roth IRAs and 401K programs. He stresses the importance of understanding spreads and fees in these transactions.
Drew discusses a retired lady and why she was disqualified from opening a futures trading account. Drew emphasizes the importance of understanding risks involved in trading, especially with leverage positions. They briefly touch on contract sizes and risk management strategies, including removing market and volatility risks, using options for downside protection, and being cautious during uncertain times like Fed announcements. He stresses the importance of staying informed and managing risks based on individual comfort levels.
Timestamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:57 - Trust & Drew's Background4:18 - Regulations & Risks9:22 - Changes in PM Industry14:39 - History at Monex19:42 - Fractional Metal Programs?23:45 - Futures Markets & Leverage27:40 - Physical Delivery & Spreads37:08 - Other Programs & Cautions42:55 - Fraud Risks & Criteria47:12 - Futures Contract Sizes50:03 - Managing Risk52:03 - Investor Behavior 202456:40 - Lessons Learned1:01:42 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Drew Rathgeber emphasizes the importance of consumer protections and education in the Gold and Silver industry.
He highlights the risks and benefits of investing in precious metals through spot markets versus regulated futures markets.
Drew shares warnings about high-fee investment schemes that like to 'churn' naive investors.
Guest Links:Website: https://progoldtrader.comEmail: drathgeber@ProGoldTrader.comApply Online: https://progoldtrader.com/open-an-account/
Drew Rathgeber got his start trading spot precious metals at one of the nation's largest bullion dealers in Newport Beach, CA in 2004. Then transitioned to futures in 2006, specializing in precious metals. Now is the owner and president of ProGoldTrader.com, which specializes in trading software and execution designed just for bullion traders.
ProGoldTrader.com is a dba of ProFuturesTrader.com
TRADING FUTURES, OPTIONS ON FUTURES, AND FUTURES SPREADS INVOLVE A SUBSTANTIAL RISK OF LOSS AND IS NOT SUITABLE FOR ALL TRADERS AND/OR INVESTORS. PAST PERFORMANCE, WHETHER ACTUAL OR INDICATED BY SIMULATED HISTORICAL TESTS OF STRATEGIES, IS NOT INDICATIVE OF FUTURE RESULTS. ACCOUNTS CAN AND MAY LOSE MONEY. ONLY GENUINE RISK CAPITAL, MONEY YOU CAN AFFORD TO LOSE, SHOULD BE USED.
Gary Savage: 13-Year Base in Gold Means Big Moves Ahead
Sep 16, 2024
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back Gary Savage, a retired entrepreneur and commodity trader, about the current state and future prospects of metals markets, specifically focusing on gold and silver. Savage underscores the importance of considering larger time frames for understanding gold market trends, emphasizing a potential 13-year base pattern in gold and impending breakout. He anticipates gold prices to reach at least $7,000 and potentially $10,000 due to this significant base size. Silver's volatility could lead to larger proportional moves, with expectations of it reaching new all-time highs towards the end of the bull market.
Savage differentiates gold and silver markets based on distinct fundamental drivers, discussing the potential implications of the war cycle, inflation, and recent dollar trend following the Fed's Jackson Hole meeting. He encourages investors to remain attentive for a significant move upwards in metals and advises buying physical gold and silver before the anticipated breakout.
The discussion covers the significance of COT reports as a tool. Gary highlights the potential leverage from miners, but ultimately suggests that physical precious metals could yield greater gains in the long run. He delves into the impact of the upcoming FOMC meeting and the potential for a recession.
Mr. Savage shares his belief in the precious metals sector's potential benefits due to the significant gold breakout, encouraging listeners to maintain a broad perspective despite market fluctuations. He dismisses energy, uranium, Bitcoin, and the stock market for investment purposes, favoring precious metals amid geopolitical tensions that could lead to a possible World War III. Savage concludes by urging listeners to stay focused on the big picture.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:40 - Big Picture on Metals3:00 - Comparing Silver & Gold5:12 - Commodities & Metals Diverge6:37 - Dollar Fundamentals8:26 - Gold Charts & Cycles12:19 - Silver Chart & Outlook15:22 - Trades & Timelines19:00 - COT Reports Uses?20:18 - Silver Miners & Leverage22:40 - Dollar & Other Currencies24:23 - Fed & Recession?28:03 - War Cycle & Elections30:00 - Regression Analysis33:50 - Metals Sector Divergence35:35 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Gary Savage highlights a potential 13-year gold base pattern and impending breakout, expecting prices to reach at least $7,000.
Silver's volatility could lead to larger proportional moves, reaching new all-time highs towards the end of the bull market.
Significant move upwards in metals, invest in physical gold and silver before the anticipated breakout, and maintain a long-term perspective.
Guest LinksTwitter: https:/twitter.com/garysavage1Blog: https://blog.smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/channel/UCgiNs7gCxEvgBE1HHvoOKTQ/videosWebsite: https://smartmoneytrackerpremium.com/login/
Gary Savage is a retired entrepreneur living in Las Vegas. He has been investing in stocks and commodities for 15+ years. Gary is a self-made multi-millionaire and attributes his financial success to savvy investments made in owning/selling several businesses, real estate, and, more recently, the stock market. He is also a national Judo, powerlifting, and Olympic weightlifting champion and world record holder. Gary holds national titles in 3 different sports and continues to challenge himself as an avid rock climber, and recently his newest endeavor bowling (two perfect 300 games so far).
Gary's renown as a recognized trading/investment expert in the areas of precious metals, stock market, oil, and currency markets is demonstrated by his numerous internationally published articles in these market areas: Kitco, 24hGold, Gold-Eagle, Investing, 321Gold, Keyport, SilverSeek, TFMetalsReport, FuturesMag, ResourceInvestor, Silver-Phoenix, BayStreetBlog, BeforeItsNews, ETFDailyNews, TalkMarkets, JuniorMiningAnalyst, MarketOracle.UK, SafeHaven, GoldSeek, Mining,
Bob Moriarty: Gold Miner Undervaluations Are About To Change
Sep 12, 2024
Tom welcomes back Bob Moriarty to engage in a discussion about global conflicts and their potential impact on world affairs. Moriarty raises concerns over the United States' involvement in Ukraine and Israel, as well as the possibility of China invading Taiwan. He emphasizes the critical nature of these events and expresses his belief in the imminence of such conflicts, which could involve multiple nations.
Moriarty questions America's preparedness for war on multiple fronts and criticizes its past military interventions. Additionally, he discusses the importance of intelligence reports and geopolitical factors shaping world events. The conversation touches upon the upcoming US election, with both individuals expressing concern over potential chaos and uncertainty surrounding it.
Moriarty advocates for owning gold as an insurance policy against economic instability. Moriarty discusses investing in gold and mining stocks, focusing on the historical premium of platinum over gold, volatility of silver, and potential opportunities in junior silver miners.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:56 - Risks & Coming Volatility4:40 - Conflicts & Reports10:10 - China, Taiwan, & Logistics13:35 - Elections & Conflict Risks17:55 - Crises & Many Black Swans21:40 - Totalitarian Moves24:01 - Implications for Gold25:40 - Mining Equities & Value28:10 - Miners During Rate Cuts29:49 - Fundamentals Vs. FOMO32:04 - Inflation Waves & Cash?35:38 - Commodities Undervalued36:52 - The Chart39:20 - Finding Great Miners41:57 - Silver & Returns45:14 - Why Platinum?49:14 - Be Prudent & Prepared50:33 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Moriarty voices concerns over U.S. involvement in Ukraine, Israel, and China's potential invasion of Taiwan.
He emphasizes the importance of being prepared for multiple front wars and criticizes past U.S. military interventions.
Moriarty advocates for owning gold as an economic stability insurance and discusses investing opportunities in gold and mining stocks.
Guest Links:Website: http://www.321gold.comWebsite: http://www.321energy.comBooks on Amazon: https://www.amazon.com/Robert-Moriarty/e/B01A9I4TJU?ref=sr_ntt_srch_lnk_3&qid=1599932580&sr=8-3
Bob Moriarty founded 321gold.com with his late wife, Barbara Moriarty, more than 16 years ago. They later added 321energy.com to cover oil, natural gas, gasoline, coal, solar, wind, and nuclear energy. Both sites feature articles, editorial opinions, pricing figures, and updates on both sectors' current events. Previously, Moriarty was a Marine F-4B and O-1 pilot, with more than 832 missions in Vietnam. He holds fourteen international aviation records.
Simon Hunt: Markets, Bonds, and Currencies are Heading for a Last Hurrah as the Risk of War Grows
Sep 11, 2024
Tom Bodrovics welcomes back consultant Simon Hunt to delve into the distinctions between Western-oriented and impartial perspectives in global analysis. Their conversation evolves around the potential threats to the West's global supremacy from the BRICS collective, spearheaded by China and Russia. This power transition could result in a loss of control over events and even the likelihood of war should diplomacy falter. The discussion also encompasses America's historic aim to fragment Russia, recent geopolitical strains, and potential clashes in Israel and Iran.
Simon discusses the ongoing geopolitical stressors and their consequences for financial markets. Their discourse centers around the US-Russia confrontation, the influence of the deep state or neoconservatives on foreign policy, and the ramifications for oil prices, copper markets, and US equities and bonds. Simon posits that Russia's reaction to Western antagonisms will be restrained but impactful, potentially triggering a substantial increase in inflation and a readjustment of monetary policy. The conversation also explores the potential repercussions of crises in Ukraine and the Middle East on the global economy.
Mr. Hunt discusses the motivations behind central banks and nations, specifically China, amassing vast quantities of gold as a safeguard against prospective currency devaluation and financial instability. He also voices his opinions on China's housing market collapse being an intended move by the government to lessen local governments' indebtedness and establish a foundation for future centralized fiscal and monetary policies if war occurs. Simon proposes that China is preparing for potential economic difficulties while maintaining a prudent stance in its fiscal and monetary policy.
Simon explores various economic matters, such as demographic problems in both the US and China, the legitimacy of economic statistics, and his views on market trends over the next few years. He suggests that the US economy might be experiencing a recession based on authentic data like deflated retail sales and employment numbers, true inflation rates, and genuine unemployment figures, which he believes are more precise indicators of economic activity than formal GDP or CPI numbers. Simon asserts that numerous countries, including the US and much of Europe, are either in a recession or heading towards one. He also expresses apprehension over governments manipulating information and the increasing mistrust among people due to heightened awareness. In terms of market predictions, Simon anticipates a steep decline in global equity markets and base metals by early next year, followed by inflation and a surge in long-term interest rates, culminating in a collapse of the financial system by 2028.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:45 - Thought West Vs. East4:22 - Provoking Russia10:16 - Israel & Middle East16:08 - Incentives & Sensibility19:17 - Risks with Russia21:55 - Market Outlook Long-Term28:44 - C.B./Smart Money Exiting30:30 - China Use For Gold33:34 - China - Housing Sector37:50 - U.S. Demographic Issues39:37 - Metrics & Fudgification45:07 - Six Month Market Outlook46:54 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
The BRICS group, led by China and Russia, poses a significant challenge to the West's global dominance, potentially leading to diplomatic clashes or even war.
Central banks, particularly China, are amassing gold as a hedge against currency devaluation and economic instability.
Simon Hunt anticipates a steep decline in global equity markets and base metals, followed by inflation and a surge in long-term interest rates.
Guest Links:Email: simon@shss.comWebsite: https://simon-hunt.com/
Simon Hunt began his career in 1956 in Central Africa as a PA to the Chairman of Rhodesian Selection Trust, one of the two large copper companies in what was then Northern Rhodesia, now Zambia.
In 1961,
Don Durrett: There Is No Path Forward Where Gold Doesn’t Do Well
Sep 06, 2024
In this episode, your host Tom Bodrovics invites back Don Durrett, author, investor, and founder of Goldstockdata.com, to discuss the economic conditions shaping gold's performance. Don highlights the U.S.'s weakening economy and global uncertainty as catalysts for gold's growth. He believes that a floor for gold exists at $2,200 due to its inverse relationship with the economy.
Don touches upon the Federal Reserve's challenges in managing inflation and interest rates, pointing to unprecedented debt levels. He voices concerns about the reliability of economic data, questioning their accuracy and suggesting consumer spending might be weaker than presented. He predicts a potential 50 basis point rate cut due to signs of slowing growth.
The conversation also addresses market volatility caused by Japan's potential interest rate hike and its impact on the yen carry trade. Don raises concerns about imminent challenges in the bond market, which holds more significance than the stock market, as credit could get turned off when countries reach a point of no return. He advises investing in gold and silver as alternatives during economic instability and predicts significant price increases for these metals.
Don also anticipates that gold miners will benefit from a rate cutting cycle due to their improved margins during recessions.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:07 - Gold & Recent Fed Policy5:46 - Trends and Gold8:29 - Fed Cuts & History14:10 - 70s Inflation or Deflation17:20 - Metrics & Data Revisions22:37 - BOJ & Western Volatility26:20 - Political Extremes32:15 - Asset Tops & Metals36:40 - Debt Servicing & GDP40:00 - Rate Cuts & the Miners45:37 - Insider Activity?47:33 - Share Dilution & Red Flags54:38 - Fall Market Direction1:01:00 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Gold's growth influenced by U.S.'s weakening economy & global uncertainty, with floor at $2,200 due to inverse relationship with economy.
Federal Reserve's dilemma managing inflation & interest rates due to historic debt levels.
Concerns about economic data reliability & potential 50 basis point rate cut as signs of slowing growth emerge.
Guest Links:Twitter: https://twitter.com/DonDurrettWebsite: https://www.goldstockdata.com/Free Trial: https://www.goldstockdata.com/freetrialSubstack: https://dondurrett.substack.com/Amazon: https://www.amazon.com.mx/How-Invest-Gold-Silver-Complete/dp/1427650241Blog Posts: https://seekingalpha.com/author/don-durrett#regular_articlesYouTube: https://www.youtube.com/user/Newager23
Don Durrett received an MBA from California State University Bakersfield in 1990. He has worked in IT-related positions for 20+ years. He has been a gold investor since 1991, with a focus on Junior Mining stocks since 2004. Realizing the value of investing in gold and silver and noticing the lack of available material for first-time investors, Don set out to provide information. First, he wrote a book, How to Invest in Gold & Silver: A Complete Guide with a Focus on Mining Stocks. He followed up the book with a website (www.goldstockdata.com) to provide data, tools, and analysis for gold and silver stock investors. His gold and silver mining stock newsletter is widely regarded as one of the best. He is a frequent guest on financial podcasts and a contributor to SeekingAlpha.com.
Nick Giambruno: The Failure of Central Planning and Central Banks
Sep 05, 2024
Tom welcomes back Nick Giambruno, founder of The Financial Underground and editor-in-chief of its premium investment research publication. Nick criticizes central planning and the Fed's role in managing inflation, arguing that central banks, cannot effectively manage interest rates due to their antithesis to free markets.
Giambruno deemed the steepest rate-hiking cycle by the Fed to combat decades-high inflation futile because raising rates to a level impacting inflation would bankrupt the US government. He considers claims of victory over inflation propaganda, as essential prices like electricity bills and food hadn't reached pre-pandemic levels.
Nick touches on the potential politicization of Federal Reserve monetary policy ahead of elections and the influence of politics on its actions. The discussion covers escalating debt and interest expenses, now the largest federal budget item, trapping the United States in a cycle of currency debasement.
Giambruno advises investing in hard assets like gold and precious metals as a long-term savings vehicle, and suggests considering gold mining stocks to speculate on fiat currency debasement. He favors royalty companies over individual mining stocks due to reduced risk.
The potential impact of the BRICS creating their own trading currency on the US dollar and the changing global order was discussed, suggesting a developing multipolar world where other countries take larger roles. Giambruno believs we are in a chaotic period, likening it to historical periods of power division, and advises individuals to consider alternatives like Latin America as a potential refuge.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction0:47 - Fed & Economic State5:00 - Politics, Inflation & CPI8:55 - Debt, Interest, & Debasement10:34 - Dollar Collapse Endgame18:11 - Asset Alternatives19:45 - Gold Miners & Rate Cuts21:12 - Commodities in General22:40 - Miners & Royalties24:25 - Lack of Understanding29:14 - Short Term Gambling31:25 - BRICS Trend & Conflict35:18 - Historic Parallels37:23 - Have a Backup Plan39:20 - West Political Shift?41:00 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Central banks, including the Fed, cannot effectively manage interest rates due to their being the antithesis of free markets.
Investing in hard assets like gold and precious metals is advised as a long-term savings vehicle.
The interview touched on potential politicization of Federal Reserve monetary policy and the influence of political considerations on its actions.
Guest Links:Website: https://financialunderground.comTwitter:https://x.com/FinancialUnderWebsite: https://nickgiambruno.com
Nick Giambruno is a renowned speculator and international investor. He's the Founder of The Financial Underground and Editor-in-Chief of its premium investment research publication Contra Speculator.
Nick travels the world searching for lucrative investment opportunities in overlooked markets.
Nick specializes in identifying Big Picture geopolitical and economic trends ahead of the crowd. His approach to investing also focuses on profiting from distortions in the market. This includes identifying unfounded pessimism in beaten-up industries, which creates opportunities for enormous gains.
He writes about geopolitics, value investing in crisis markets, Bitcoin, international banking, second passports, international diversification, and surviving a financial collapse, among other topics.
Nick has traveled to over 60 countries and lived in six of them. He formerly worked in the Middle East with a Dubai-based investment bank.
He has been featured in The Economist, Forbes, Zero Hedge, Seeking Alpha, The Herald of Zimbabwe, The Keiser Report, MoneyWeek, Casey Research, International Man, The Crux, Gold Newsletter, The Jet Setter Show, Lew Rockwell.com, The Tom Woods Show, International Living Magazine, Wall St for Main St, Emerging and Frontier Markets Investing, AntiWar.com, The Power & Market Report,
Jeffrey Christian: Gold and Silver, The US Election – Existential Implications
Sep 04, 2024
Tom welcomes back the Managing Partner of the CPM Group, Jeffrey Christian to discuss the Fed, Gold and the current economic realities of U.S. and the globe. Jeff shares his views on the Fed aiming for a long-term inflation average of around 2%, with fluctuations accepted between 1.3% and 2.8%. He asserts that while the target remains unchanged, the Fed is being more explicit about it. He speculates on the reasons why inflation is "acceptable" to the Fed.
Jeffrey discusses the likely September interest rate reduction and potential surprises. He anticipates a quarter-point decrease followed by further evaluations in November and December due to recessionary fears.
Jeff discusses the US economy's influence on the global stage, the significance of the upcoming US election, the importance of data reliability in today's digital age, and the drivers of gold and silver prices.
Central banks' roles in gold demand, with decreasing holdings by developed countries and emerging economies buying for monetary reserves, are also explored. The history of non-alignment among developing countries and the uncertain future direction of BRICS is touched upon.
Jeff explains the drivers of long-term silver prices including investment and industrial fabrication demands, with relatively low net investment demand leading to unremarkable price performance. Industrial demand for platinum and palladium is substantial but not expected to surge significantly. Fear acts as a catalyst for investments into these metals although there primary use is industrial rather than having a monetary function.
Time Stamp References:0:00 - Introduction1:08 - Fed Anticipation & CPI3:25 - Acceptable Inflation?5:33 - A Fed Sept. Surprise?8:50 - Recession Risk & Fed10:00 - Global Effects13:04 - 2024 Politics & Markets16:23 - U.S. Policy & Regulations21:30 - Ignorance & Progress24:12 - Gold & Silver Outlook28:43 - Long-Term Thoughts36:25 - Dollar Vs. Gold Demand40:50 - BRICS Alliance45:47 - Drivers for Silver49:13 - Platinum & Palladium52:54 - Wrap Up
Talking Points From This Episode
Fed's fall rate expectations and possibility of a surprise.
Global economic outlook and what to expect around the election cycle.
Gold's global role and the limited monetary role of other precious metals.
Guest LinksTwitter: https://twitter.com/CPMGroupLLCWebsite: https://www.cpmgroup.com/Questions Email: info@cpmgroup.comYouTube Link: https://www.youtube.com/c/CPMGroup/videos
Jeffrey Christian is the Managing Partner of the CPM Group. He is considered one of the most knowledgeable experts on precious metals markets, commodities in general, and financial engineering, using options for hedging and investing purposes. He is the author of Commodities Rising 2006.
Jeffrey Christian has been a prominent analyst and advisor on precious metals and commodities markets since the 1970s, with work spanning precious metals, energy markets, base metals, agricultural markets, and economic analysis. The company was founded in 1986, spinning off the Commodities Research Group from Goldman, Sachs & Co and its commodities trading arm, J. Aron & Company.
He has advised many of the world's largest corporations and institutional investors on managing their commodities price and market exposures and providing advisory services to the World Bank, United Nations, International Monetary Fund, and numerous governments.
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