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    Onramp Bitcoin Media

    Onramp Bitcoin Media
    Bitcoin, macro, and markets, discussed by the team building Onramp and the investors and founders we interview every week.

    The Last Trade: our flagship show on markets, macro, and digital assets through a bitcoin lens, plus one-on-one interviews with investors, entrepreneurs, and analysts.

    Final Settlement: our weekly show on how traditional capital is moving into bitcoin and digital assets, plus one-on-one interviews with the dealmakers and builders behind it.

    First Principles: one-on-one conversations every other week on why bitcoin works and how to hold it for the lo

    Advertise

    Copyright: Β© Onramp

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    Latest Episodes:
    The Treasury Just Lost Control of the Bond Market Sep 03, 2026
    Show notes

    The Last Trade: government bond yields are blowing out across the developed world, Japan's 10-year hit 3% for the first time since 1996, and the Treasury's buyback program has already been overrun. Jackson, Michael, and Brian trace what a global bond rout means for hard assets, why $3.5 billion went into Bitcoin ETFs in August, and what it says that 21 of the largest banks just announced a joint dollar stablecoin.

    ---


    πŸ”Έ Connect with Onramp: The leader in resilient, fault-tolerant Multi-Institution Custody for secure, enduring bitcoin ownership.


    πŸ‘‰ Get Back to Basics: 50% off trading fees + no-fee recurring buys β€” open your free account: https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/back-to-basics-tlt

    πŸ“© Schedule a consultation:

    https://meetings.hubspot.com/onrampbitcoin/tlt


    The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset… in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make.


    πŸŽ™οΈ About This Episode

    The show opens on the worst stretch for government bonds in decades, with Japan's 10-year yield at 3% for the first time since 1996 and long-end yields retracing past where they sat before the Treasury announced its buyback program two weeks ago. Jackson makes the case that bond investors are finally calling the bluff, and Brian argues the interventions to date are nowhere near enough and that another balance-sheet expansion event is the only exit. Michael brings the chart that frames the week: since 2014, inflation-adjusted, gold is up 145% while bonds are down 20%, and he pushes on why the 60/40 doctrine survives at all when the risk-free asset is guaranteed to lose money in real terms. Then the counterweight: $3.5 billion flowed into US spot Bitcoin ETFs in August, the biggest month in over a year, Bitcoin closed up 25% for its best month since November 2024, and iBit is now outperforming Vanguard's S&P 500 fund since inception. The back half covers 21 banks including Goldman, Bank of America and Deutsche launching a joint dollar stablecoin in 2027, a data breach exposing 153 million driver's licenses, and data-center developers cutting $10,000 checks to residents.


    🧠 Chapters

    00:00 - Housekeeping, live events, and the fantasy draft

    05:50 - The worst stretch for global bonds in decades

    07:53 - Brian: the interventions are not going to be enough

    10:01 - Gold up 145%, bonds down 20%, inflation adjusted

    11:29 - Hooray for the bond market: what the mainstream is told

    14:29 - Why 60/40 survives when the ballast loses money

    18:28 - The hard asset renaissance and the next allocation shift

    20:06 - Bitcoin as the fire alarm on the print that is coming

    22:30 - $3.5 billion into Bitcoin ETFs, the best month since 2024

    28:02 - Brian: the backdrop has changed, this is a new regime

    28:24 - What is already breaking: housing, auctions, layoffs

    32:38 - iBit is beating the S&P 500 fund since inception

    34:55 - 21 banks announce a joint dollar stablecoin for 2027

    44:00 - Why the system repurposes the wheel around Bitcoin

    49:57 - Single point of failure: 153 million licenses exposed

    56:22 - Uber cuts 10%, and data centers pay residents $10,000

    1:04:57 - Why companies may start holding gold on the balance sheet


    πŸ’‘ Subscribe & Stay Ahead


    Get Onramp's weekly Research & Analysis:

    High-signal insights in bitcoin, macro, and custody.

    πŸ“© https://onrampbitcoin.com/research


    Subscribe to Onramp Media for more:

    🎧 The Last Trade | The Last Trade Interview Series | Final Settlement | First Principles


    This Warning Sign Hasn't Been Seen Since 1996 Sep 02, 2026
    Show notes

    Global bond yields just climbed to their highest level since 2008, with Japan's 10-year notes touching 3% for the first time since 1996, as traders price in a near seventy percent chance of a Fed rate hike this month. Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, Liam Nelson, and Brian Cubellis put four stories on the clock: the global bond selloff and a central banking system with no good options left, European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen's push to redirect ten trillion euros of household savings into EU companies, a Wall Street Journal piece on Americans melting down family heirlooms for cash, and South Korea giving its entire population free, unlimited access to AI. Where's the signal, and where's the noise?


    ---


    πŸŽ™οΈ About The Show

    Signal vs Noise: a twice weekly show unpacking the five biggest stories across capital markets, technology, and people, with five minutes on the clock for each.


    🧠 Chapters

    00:00 - Intro

    00:31 - Topic 1 - The EU Wants Your Savings

    08:05 - Topic 2 - Melting Down the Family Silver

    18:11 - Topic 3 - Global Bond Yields Hit Their Highest Level Since 2008

    26:10 - Topic 4 - South Korea Gives Its Whole Country Free AI

    34:02 - Lightning Round and Parting Thoughts


    πŸ’‘ Subscribe & Watch Live:

    ▢️ https://www.youtube.com/@SignalvsNoiseLIVE

    βœ–οΈ https://x.com/OnrampMedia


    πŸ“° Your 1-Stop News & Data Source:

    https://onramp.media/


    πŸ”Έ Buy, hold, and secure your bitcoin in one place. Open a free Onramp Finance account.

    πŸ‘‰ https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/finance-svn


    🎧 More from Onramp Media: The Last Trade | Final Settlement


    Bitcoin's Surprise $46B Bid Starts Today Sep 01, 2026
    Show notes

    Connect with Early Riders β€” https://www.earlyriders.com/contact

    Connect with Onramp β€” https://onrampbitcoin.com/contact-us/


    Presented collaboratively by Early Riders & Onramp Media…

    Final Settlement is a weekly podcast covering capital markets, dealmaking, early-stage venture, bitcoin applications and protocol development.


    Michael, Liam, and Brian open on BitGo acquiring NYDIG's institutional trading business for a reported $42.5 million, and on Russia's largest bank moving to accept Bitcoin, ETH, and USDT as loan collateral while forecasting $46 billion of regulated crypto exchange trading in year one. They get into why a sanctioned, energy rich sovereign is the one recollateralizing first, Blockstream's new post quantum signature proposal, and the SEC sending a crypto custody overhaul to the White House with the Clarity Act stalled. The back half is market plumbing: why settlement is the real prize, the tokenized GLD that spiked to $2,000 on Robinhood over the weekend against $400 for the underlying, bank tokenized deposits, and Robinhood's chain now out-earning every Ethereum L2. They close on Hyperliquid, trading Anthropic shares on entropy.io, the Singularity Stack report, NVIDIA buying Hugging Face for $12.9 billion, and a $400 robot duck that talks over Nostr.


    Chapters

    00:00 - Bessent, Warsh, and the bond market

    03:32 - BitGo acquires NYDIG's institutional trading business

    07:47 - What BitGo actually gets: liquidity, scale, and stickiness

    11:24 - Russia's largest bank moves on BTC, ETH, and USDT

    12:56 - Recollateralizing the global financial system

    15:34 - Energy rich and sanctioned: why Russia goes first

    18:14 - Is the US behind, or already through the door?

    20:58 - Blockstream's quantum fix and the Shrinks proposal

    24:14 - The SEC preps an overhaul of crypto custody rules

    28:35 - Why settlement is the prize: DTC, IOUs, and T+0

    33:10 - Tokenized GLD spikes to $2,000 on Robinhood

    35:04 - Tokenized deposits, bank consortiums, and JP Morgan

    38:31 - Robinhood chain now out-earns every Ethereum L2

    43:54 - Hyperliquid, Trump, and 24/7 commodities

    47:16 - Trading Anthropic shares on entropy.io

    51:12 - The Singularity Stack report and Onramp is hiring

    56:13 - NVIDIA buys Hugging Face, and a $400 robot duck on Nostr


    If you found this valuable, please subscribe to Early Riders Insights for access to the best content in the ecosystem weekly: https://www.earlyriders.com/research


    Keep up with Michael:

    https://x.com/MTanguma


    Keep up with Liam:

    https://x.com/Lnelson_21


    Keep up with Brian:

    https://x.com/BackslashBTC


    The $20 Trillion Trade That Decides Bitcoin's Next Move Aug 31, 2026
    Show notes

    The Last Trade: a $20 trillion carry trade sits underneath every market in the world, and when it unwinds, Bitcoin is what gets sold first. Jackson sits down with Roberto Rios, the macro analyst behind The Dollar Endgame, on Japan's $91 billion week defending the yen, the first time any major country has used the Fed's FEMA repo window to fund an intervention, and why Japan has roughly eight interventions left before the reserves run out.

    ---


    πŸ”Έ Connect with Onramp: The leader in resilient, fault-tolerant Multi-Institution Custody for secure, enduring bitcoin ownership.


    πŸ‘‰ Get Back to Basics: 50% off trading fees + no-fee recurring buys β€” open your free account: https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/back-to-basics-tlt

    πŸ“© Schedule a consultation:

    https://meetings.hubspot.com/onrampbitcoin/tlt


    The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset… in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make.


    πŸŽ™οΈ About This Episode

    Roberto Rios argues that Japan has been the world's creditor for thirty-five years, and that the bill for it is now coming due. He walks Jackson through the mechanics: three decades pinned at zero rates, a carry trade that lets traders borrow yen for free and buy anything yielding more, and a Bank of Japan that has spent roughly $320 billion since 2022 trying to stop the yen from dying. Deutsche Bank puts the carry trade at $20 trillion, and Rios puts its correlation to Bitcoin at 0.8, which is why every intervention has been followed by a Bitcoin drawdown within hours. Japan cannot raise rates out of the problem either: at 260% debt to GDP, every 100 basis points of average interest costs 23% of federal tax receipts, so a 4% average rate makes the government insolvent outright. The second half turns to the US, where Rios makes the case that the Treasury's bond buybacks are quantitative easing under another name, and traces the toolkit that has kept liquidity flowing with no easing program ever announced: the reverse repo drawdown, the BTFP, the December 2025 cut to the supplementary leverage ratio, and the reserve management purchase program. He closes on his bear market call, the $83,000 level he is watching, and a $200,000 target.


    🧠 Chapters

    00:00 - Introduction: Roberto Rios on Japan macro

    01:53 - Japan as the world's creditor for thirty-five years

    03:30 - Inside the $91 billion yen intervention

    05:42 - Four years of failed interventions

    07:22 - The FEMA repo window: a first for any major country

    10:01 - The carry trade as a permanent bid under markets

    11:53 - August 2024: the biggest Nikkei drop since 1987

    13:10 - Bitcoin's 0.8 correlation to the yen carry trade

    15:55 - Hawkish dissents and why the Fed is holding rates

    18:47 - Japan's debt math: 260% of GDP and insolvency

    20:37 - The monetary reset: defaulting to the Bank of Japan

    25:10 - What the Treasury buyback program actually does

    29:25 - Duration swaps and QE without calling it QE

    33:54 - Reverse repo, the BTFP, the SLR cut, and the RMP

    40:50 - Why liquidity keeps flowing into AI and data centers

    43:58 - Save the bonds or save the currency, not both

    46:39 - Yield curve control and QE infinity

    57:39 - Bitcoin: the bear market call, $83K, and $200K


    πŸ’‘ Subscribe & Stay Ahead


    Get Onramp's weekly Research & Analysis:

    High-signal insights in bitcoin, macro, and custody.

    πŸ“© https://onrampbitcoin.com/research


    Subscribe to Onramp Media for more:

    🎧 The Last Trade | Final Settlement | First Principles


    Most Bitcoin Is Lost From a False Sense of Security | Parker Lewis Aug 29, 2026
    Show notes

    First Principles: Parker Lewis, author of Gradually, Then Suddenly, joins Cam Stromme to rebuild Bitcoin custody from the ground up in the aftermath of the Coldcard exploit and the Trezor data leak. Four principles run through the hour: eliminate single points of failure, build fault tolerance, understand the difference between a custodian's keys and your account access, and separate adversarial risk from the mistakes you make yourself.


    ---


    πŸ”Έ Connect with Onramp: The leader in resilient, fault-tolerant Multi-Institution Custody for secure, enduring bitcoin ownership.


    πŸ‘‰ Get Back to Basics: 50% off trading fees + no-fee recurring buys β€” open your free account: https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/back-to-basics-tlt

    πŸ“© Schedule a consultation:

    https://meetings.hubspot.com/onrampbitcoin/tlt


    First Principles: a Bitcoin education series from Onramp Media, hosted by Cam Stromme, Head of Private Wealth at Onramp. Long, unhurried conversations that build the hard questions in bitcoin back up from the ground, one principle at a time, so you can make better decisions about your own wealth.


    πŸŽ™οΈ About This Episode

    Parker Lewis argues that if you are not at least a little worried about your setup, whatever it is, that is the gap in your knowledge talking. He starts where most people skip: if you hold an ETF, you still have no idea how those keys were generated, it is simply abstracted away from you. From there he builds the framework, eliminating single points of failure and building fault tolerance, and applies it across the spectrum from a single hardware wallet to a bank. He and Cam work through why withdrawal authorization is often a bigger risk than key security, why a passphrase is effectively a two of two multisig you can lose, why the 6102 scenario gets far more attention than inheritance despite inheritance being the risk almost nobody has planned for, and how geography changes the calculus entirely. Parker closes with the exercise he recommends even to people who will never self custody: set up a hardware wallet, back it up, send funds, wipe it, restore it.


    🧠 Chapters

    00:00 - Why custody, and why now

    02:46 - Education is what lets you hold through volatility

    05:00 - If you are not a little worried, that is the knowledge gap

    08:00 - The ETF blind spot: you still do not know how those keys were made

    09:37 - Steelmanning the banks: why not just trust Fidelity

    12:30 - Make it hard for you, so it is orders of magnitude harder for them

    17:07 - Withdrawal authorization can matter more than key security

    18:49 - The framework: eliminate single points of failure, build fault tolerance

    23:38 - Inside multi-institution: segregated vaults and a 24 to 36 hour withdrawal

    28:30 - Bring your own entropy, and stop mocking the dice

    30:00 - Your passphrase is a two of two multisig you can lose

    31:07 - Social engineering, and adversarial versus self-inflicted risk

    37:04 - 6102, court orders, and where Parker disagrees

    39:30 - The risk nobody plans for: inheritance and getting older

    41:23 - The barbell approach, and how geography changes it

    47:30 - The thing you are not paying attention to is what gets you

    51:08 - Multisig: balancing security against complexity

    55:30 - Why multisig makes bitcoin easier to secure than gold

    1:00:02 - The one exercise Parker recommends to everyone

    1:04:48 - They may not seize it, they may just print more


    πŸ’‘ Subscribe & Stay Ahead


    Get Onramp's weekly Research & Analysis:

    High-signal insights in bitcoin, macro, and custody.

    πŸ“© https://onrampbitcoin.com/research


    Subscribe to Onramp Media for more:

    🎧 The Last Trade | Final Settlement | First Principles


    Nobody Was Ready for What Bitcoin Just Did Aug 27, 2026
    Show notes

    The Last Trade: Bitcoin just posted its second best week since February 2021, up about 24% from roughly 62,000 to a high near 80,000, and Brian calls it the biggest dollar magnitude move ever inside a three to five day span. Gold and Bitcoin ETFs pulled a combined $7 billion in a single week, a record for any five day period. Jackson, Michael, and Brian trace it back to the Treasury's bond buybacks and Stanley Druckenmiller's op-ed calling out his own former protege.


    ---


    πŸ”Έ Connect with Onramp: The leader in resilient, fault-tolerant Multi-Institution Custody for secure, enduring bitcoin ownership.


    πŸ‘‰ Get Back to Basics: 50% off trading fees + no-fee recurring buys β€” open your free account: https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/back-to-basics-tlt

    πŸ“© Schedule a consultation:

    https://meetings.hubspot.com/onrampbitcoin/tlt


    The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset… in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make.


    πŸŽ™οΈ About This Episode

    The show opens on Stanley Druckenmiller's Wall Street Journal op-ed, Let the Bond Market Speak, calling out his former protege Scott Bessent a week after Treasury doubled its long dated buybacks from $2B to at least $4B per operation. Brian reads it as the early stage of a controlled demolition, arguing yield curve control is QE by another name and that the plan is to debase the dollar and monetize gold, with Bitcoin as the second order effect. Michael pushes on the idea that debasement was never a trade at all but a structural shift, and the guys work through why allocators still believe there is a way out. Then the price: 24% on the week, the biggest dollar move ever in a three to five day span, and a record $7 billion week for gold and Bitcoin ETFs per Eric Balchunas. The back half covers Jamie Dimon entering stablecoins, the rush to charter new banks, dying Ledger screens as the single point of failure of the week, a white hat who spent two years inside North Korea's Lazarus Group, and Bill Gates warning that there is no plan for AI.


    🧠 Chapters

    00:00 - Live from a WeWork pod and a hotel room

    03:18 - Druckenmiller's op-ed: Let the Bond Market Speak

    06:41 - Nearing the end game: why these interventions are blunt tools

    08:00 - Controlled demolition, debasing the dollar, monetizing gold

    10:46 - Debasement was never a trade, it is a structural shift

    16:12 - Recency bias, real versus nominal, and the coming repricing

    19:19 - The most interventionist Treasury Secretary in decades

    22:20 - Is the Iran conflict a blunder or air cover for more liquidity

    26:29 - Bitcoin as the loaded gun at the table

    29:06 - Second best week since February 2021: 62K to 80K

    30:21 - The biggest dollar move ever in a three to five day span

    36:50 - Balchunas: a record $7B week for gold and Bitcoin ETFs

    37:51 - Central banks buy a record 289 tons, Jamie Dimon enters stablecoins

    42:37 - The rush to charter new banks, and stablecoins as a captive T-bill buyer

    46:13 - Single point of failure of the week: Ledger screens are dying

    51:24 - The third way: you do not have to do it all yourself

    54:09 - Two years inside North Korea's Lazarus Group

    56:07 - Bill Gates says there is no plan for AI

    1:00:00 - Jordi Visser on machine time versus human time


    πŸ’‘ Subscribe & Stay Ahead


    Get Onramp's weekly Research & Analysis:

    High-signal insights in bitcoin, macro, and custody.

    πŸ“© https://onrampbitcoin.com/research


    Subscribe to Onramp Media for more:

    🎧 The Last Trade | Final Settlement | Scarce Assets


    Druckenmiller Just Called Out His Old Friend at the Treasury Aug 26, 2026
    Show notes

    Stanley Druckenmiller just used a Wall Street Journal op-ed to publicly break with his old friend and former Soros Fund Management colleague, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, over the Treasury's decision to more than double its bond buyback program. Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, Liam Nelson, and Brian Cubellis put four stories on the clock: Druckenmiller's "Let the Bond Market Speak" op-ed and what it means for the Fed's credibility, Bessent's own "Economic D-Day" sanctions warning to Chinese banks over Iranian oil, a trillion-dollar gold revaluation thesis gaining steam, and Apple's new $10,000 Mac Studio that can run frontier-level AI models with zero cloud dependency. Where's the signal, and where's the noise?


    ---


    πŸŽ™οΈ About The Show

    Signal vs Noise: a twice weekly show unpacking the five biggest stories across capital markets, technology, and people, with five minutes on the clock for each.


    🧠 Chapters

    00:00 - Intro

    01:06 - Topic 1 - Druckenmiller's WSJ Op-Ed Breaks With Bessent Over Treasury Buybacks

    11:38 - Topic 2 - The Trillion-Dollar Gold Revaluation Play

    19:46 - Topic 3 - The US Declares "Economic D-Day" on China and Iran

    27:11 - Topic 4 - Apple's $10,000 Local AI Machine

    34:40 - Lightning Round and Parting Thoughts


    πŸ’‘ Subscribe & Watch Live:

    ▢️ https://www.youtube.com/@SignalvsNoiseLIVE

    βœ–οΈ https://x.com/OnrampMedia


    πŸ“° Your 1-Stop News & Data Source:

    https://onramp.media/


    πŸ”Έ Buy, hold, and secure your bitcoin in one place. Open a free Onramp Finance account.

    πŸ‘‰ https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/finance-svn


    🎧 More from Onramp Media: The Last Trade | Final Settlement


    Bessent Just Doubled Treasury Buybacks - Did Something Break? Aug 25, 2026
    Show notes

    Connect with Early Riders β€” https://www.earlyriders.com/contact

    Connect with Onramp β€” https://onrampbitcoin.com/contact-us/


    Presented collaboratively by Early Riders & Onramp Media…

    Final Settlement is a weekly podcast covering capital markets, dealmaking, early-stage venture, bitcoin applications and protocol development.


    The Treasury doubled its bond buyback operation and Bitcoin ran from roughly $63,000 to $80,000 in a week. Michael, Liam, and Brian open on what Bessent actually did, why issuing at the front end to buy the long end is yield curve control without the name, and why gold, oil, and Bitcoin all responded the way the debasement thesis said they would. They get into whether the move was coordinated, what the White House crypto meeting and the SEC's new proposals mean with the Clarity Act stalled, and how tokenized stocks and meme coins are about to make grift a feature of the next cycle. The back half turns to market structure: Citi launching Bitcoin custody, why Bitcoin is a one way street once people understand it, and the honeypot problem banks are walking into. They close on Stripe buying OpenRouter, NVIDIA moving up the AI stack, agentic payments at Ramp, and a leak of API keys from 659 Stripe merchants.


    Chapters

    00:00 - Bitcoin rips from $63K to $80K

    02:55 - Bessent doubles the Treasury buyback

    05:27 - Why you cannot time Bitcoin's best ten days

    07:35 - Revaluing gold and the liquidity sponge trade

    11:43 - Tether and the new eurodollar market

    12:22 - Bitcoin is back on institutional screens

    15:03 - Was this whole move coordinated?

    17:49 - The White House crypto meeting and the SEC

    20:32 - Tokenized stocks, meme coins, and legalized grift

    28:16 - Oil, energy, and nominal versus real wealth

    32:19 - Citi launches Bitcoin custody

    33:20 - Bitcoin is a one way street

    40:44 - The honeypot problem with bank custody

    43:56 - Stripe buys OpenRouter and the singularity letter

    49:36 - NVIDIA, Perplexity, OpenAI, and Hugging Face

    58:20 - Ramp, x402, and agentic payments

    1:01:34 - Robots beat Usain Bolt

    1:06:20 - Single point of failure: 659 Stripe merchant keys


    If you found this valuable, please subscribe to Early Riders Insights for access to the best content in the ecosystem weekly: https://www.earlyriders.com/research


    Keep up with Michael:

    https://x.com/MTanguma


    Keep up with Liam:

    https://x.com/Lnelson_21


    Keep up with Brian:

    https://x.com/BackslashBTC


    Don't Believe Your Lying Eyes Aug 21, 2026
    Show notes

    The Treasury just told markets not to trust their own eyes. Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, and Liam Nelson put four stories on the clock. They break down the US Treasury more than doubling its bond buyback program, from a $2 billion cap to a $4 billion floor, in an attempt to cap bond yields, only for 30-year yields to erase the intervention and climb back toward multi-decade highs within 24 hours, right after Treasury Secretary Bessent said the yields "do not reflect the underlying fundamentals." OpenAI has reportedly paused a round of frontier-model post-training over safety concerns, just as Alibaba's open-source Qwen model closes the gap on the frontier labs while running on a laptop. Moderna and Merck's personalized cancer vaccine cleared a major late-stage trial milestone, sending both stocks sharply higher. And New York City is weighing grants for local grocers to help them compete with Mayor Mamdani's government-run grocery stores. Where's the signal, and where's the noise?


    ---


    πŸŽ™οΈ About The Show

    Signal vs Noise: a twice weekly show unpacking the five biggest stories across capital markets, technology, and people, with five minutes on the clock for each.


    🧠 Chapters

    00:53 - Topic 1 - Treasury Doubles the Bond Buyback as Yields Hit Multi-Decade Highs

    06:28 - Topic 2 - OpenAI Pauses Training as Qwen Goes Toe to Toe With the Frontier

    10:55 - Topic 3 - Moderna and Merck's Cancer Vaccine Breakthrough

    16:40 - Topic 4 - Mamdani's Government-Run Grocery Stores

    23:42 - Lightning Round and Parting Thoughts


    πŸ’‘ Subscribe & Watch Live:

    ▢️ https://www.youtube.com/@SignalvsNoiseLIVE

    βœ–οΈ https://x.com/OnrampMedia


    πŸ“° Your 1-Stop News & Data Source:

    https://onramp.media/


    πŸ”Έ Buy, hold, and secure your bitcoin in one place. Open a free Onramp Finance account.

    πŸ‘‰ https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/finance-svn


    πŸ”Έ Where Do We Go From Here: The Evolution of Bitcoin Custody & Financial Services

    Online-Webinar: Wed, August 26, 2026 @4:00PM ET

    In-Person Happy Hour: 5:30 - 7:30PM ET @Pubkey NYC

    πŸ‘‰ Sign-up here: https://form.typeform.com/to/PIbz58qi


    🎧 More from Onramp Media: The Last Trade | Final Settlement


    Bitcoin Just Got What It Waited 5 Years For Aug 20, 2026
    Show notes

    The Last Trade: the US Treasury just doubled its long-dated debt buybacks, turning a $2B daily cap into a $4B daily floor, and long yields fell, gold jumped $100 an ounce, and Bitcoin ripped a five thousand dollar candle. Jackson, Michael, and Brian make the case that this is the opening move of yield curve control and the Bitcoin thesis playing out in real time. They also cover Citi confirming Bitcoin custody, the Trezor shipping breach, and why the flight into ETFs is the wrong lesson.


    ---


    πŸ”Έ Connect with Onramp: The leader in resilient, fault-tolerant Multi-Institution Custody for secure, enduring bitcoin ownership.


    πŸ‘‰ Get Back to Basics: 50% off trading fees + no-fee recurring buys β€” open your free account: https://go.onrampbitcoin.com/back-to-basics-tlt

    πŸ“© Schedule a consultation:

    https://meetings.hubspot.com/onrampbitcoin/tlt


    The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset… in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make.


    πŸŽ™οΈ About This Episode

    Jackson opens on the Bloomberg headline that Bessent deployed the buyback in a sign of concern over rising yields, then walks the mechanics: a $2B cap is now a $4B floor, the Treasury's own release claims strong sponsorship from market participants while doing the opposite, and Fred Hickey reads it as desperation after a poor 20-year auction. Brian frames it as inevitable, arguing that euphoric tops become resistance bottoms, that a 70K top five years ago is now a floor, and that this drawdown ran about 54% against past drawdowns of 70 to 80%. Michael points at Japan, where the yen lost roughly half its purchasing power in twelve months, and at Paul Tudor Jones adding back to a position he had shaved down. The back half turns to custody: Citi confirming its Custody Plus platform, the SEC proposing its own rules while the Clarity Act stalls, the Trezor shipping breach weeks after Coldcard, and why an ETF you cannot exit in kind is the wrong answer.


    🧠 Chapters

    04:06 - The Treasury doubles its debt buybacks: $2B cap becomes a $4B floor

    07:35 - Euphoric tops become resistance bottoms: this is why Bitcoin exists

    08:59 - Japan, the yen, and Paul Tudor Jones adding back

    11:35 - The Treasury's press release says the opposite of what it is doing

    12:40 - The 1940s precedent: a decade of yield curve control at 120% debt to GDP

    16:00 - Fred Hickey on a poor 20-year auction and gold jumping $100

    17:37 - Citi confirms Bitcoin custody under its Custody Plus platform

    20:17 - Why the Clarity Act may not matter anymore

    25:54 - Travis Kling on apathy, and why the price did not move on the SEC news

    31:46 - Single point of failure of the week: the Trezor shipping breach

    34:21 - Changing the logic of violence: how not to be the easiest target

    39:40 - In-kind subscriptions: you can get into the ETF, not out of it

    45:04 - The third way: neither trusting yourself nor trusting Coinbase

    52:02 - Bloomberg on beating inflation, with no mention of gold or Bitcoin

    1:01:19 - Robinhood's super cycle and the grand super cycle of rugged

    1:06:14 - Young Americans turn on AI, and what that means for Bitcoin

    1:13:00 - The New York happy hour, and what is next


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    🎧 The Last Trade | Final Settlement | Scarce Assets


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