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The Fed Just Became Irrelevant | Gary Brode Sep 21, 2026

Show notes

The Fed just hiked for the first time since 2023, and Gary Brode's answer is that it changed nothing at all. Jackson sits down with the Deep Knowledge Investing founder on why the Fed is now irrelevant, and why he spent a month paying for lunch in Bitcoin.

Guest: Gary Brode, founder of http://deepknowledgeinvesting.com/ and a former long/short hedge fund manager

X: https://x.com/Gary_Brode

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ABOUT THIS EPISODE

Gary Brode's argument is that the Federal Reserve has become a spectator. The Fed sets the overnight rate, but corporate borrowing is priced off the five year Treasury and mortgages off the ten year, and the bond market answered two years and 200 basis points of cuts by pushing long yields higher. With the ten year just under 5% and M2 growing about 5%, the real return on Treasuries is roughly zero, which is why Brode says Kevin Warsh is right that policy was never restrictive and why 25 basis points changes nothing. What matters instead is Congress, overspending by trillions a year, and a Treasury he reads as panicking through its buyback expansion and its yen purchases ahead of the midterms. His conclusion is to own what cannot be printed. He closes on a month in El Salvador, where he paid for lunch over Lightning and calls Bitcoin a working currency.

CHAPTERS

00:00 - Gary Brode on the Fed's First Hike Since 2023

02:03 - Why 2% Inflation Is Theft, Not a Target

04:30 - Congress, Nixon and the End of the Gold Standard

07:13 - What the Bond Market Is Telling the Fed

09:10 - The Fed Does Not Control Interest Rates

11:45 - Warsh Is Right, Policy Was Never Restrictive

15:24 - Why the Fed Is Now Irrelevant

16:10 - Hard Assets: Bitcoin, Gold, Silver, Uranium

21:45 - Why Bitcoin Rallied When the Treasury Panicked

26:10 - The Yen Intervention and the Reverse Carry Trade

31:09 - The Midterm Playbook and the Inside Information Line

39:22 - Gas Prices Are Not Up in 40 Years

46:00 - The 60/40 Portfolio and the AI Capex Risk

48:20 - OpenAI, NVIDIA and Circular Financing

52:56 - El Salvador: From 36 Murders a Day to Near Zero

56:00 - Bitcoin Beach, the Coffee Test and Lightning

1:02:13 - A Dollar Economy That Settles in Sats

1:05:47 - Where to Find Gary Brode

ABOUT THE SHOW

The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, and finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, and Brian Cubellis. Join us for the biggest stories shaping bitcoin and digital asset adoption, and what they mean for investors protecting their wealth for the long term.

▶️ Watch the video: [YouTube link for this episode]

MORE FROM ONRAMP MEDIA

• Signal vs Noise, live twice a week: https://www.youtube.com/@SignalvsNoiseLIVE

• Final Settlement and First Principles: https://www.youtube.com/@OnrampMedia

• Audio, every show: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1690709152 or search Onramp Bitcoin Media on Spotify

• News and data: https://onramp.media

Onramp does not provide financial, tax, or legal advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. This episode is for entertainment purposes only.

The Real Reason the Clarity Act Just Failed Sep 17, 2026

Show notes

The Clarity Act fell short in the Senate, and the banking lobby's fear of deposit flight looks like the real sticking point. Jackson, Michael and Brian cover why banks keep building anyway, the oil shock squeezing consumers, and Strategy's STRC buybacks.

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ABOUT THIS EPISODE

The Clarity Act failed its Senate cloture vote, and Brian argues the ethics fight reads as cover for the banking lobby's fear of deposit flight, a fear a late Treasury circuit breaker did not settle. Michael points to the GENIUS Act already on the books and to bank custody rules as the piece to watch, while Jackson reads Deutsche Bank's planned custody service for institutions as proof the build continues regardless. The middle of the episode follows the oil shock, from Saudi Arabia canceling late September cargoes to Europe after the East West pipeline shut, to diesel prices and a Fed preparing its first rate hike in three years, and why 25 basis points fixes nothing structural. The back half covers consumers aged 40 to 49 taking the largest share of new bankruptcies since 2015, Strategy repurchasing roughly $950 million of STRC, Satsuma selling all 669 BTC, and Revolut handing nearly 700 customers' data to scammers.

CHAPTERS

00:00 - Housekeeping and the Philly happy hour

02:55 - The Clarity Act fails in the Senate

05:15 - Brian: the banking lobby and deposit flight

08:23 - Bankers, stablecoins and the circuit breaker fight

10:02 - The GENIUS Act and why adoption happens anyway

12:04 - Deutsche Bank plans Bitcoin custody for institutions

13:39 - Saudi Arabia cancels crude cargoes to Europe

16:19 - We feel acceleration, not speed

18:59 - How the chaos hides the $40 trillion debt

23:50 - The Fed, the bond market and a coming rate hike

28:37 - Consumer bankruptcies and the K-shaped economy

33:15 - Strategy's STRC buybacks and the treasury companies

40:45 - Can a Bitcoin treasury company beat Bitcoin?

43:28 - Satsuma sells all 669 BTC

44:17 - Single point of failure of the week: Revolut's data leak

52:52 - Pacing the frontier and the push to slow AI

ABOUT THE SHOW

▶️ Watch the video: [YouTube link for this episode]

MORE FROM ONRAMP MEDIA

• Signal vs Noise, live twice a week: https://www.youtube.com/@SignalvsNoiseLIVE

• Final Settlement and First Principles: https://www.youtube.com/@OnrampMedia

• Audio, every show: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1690709152 or search Onramp Bitcoin Media on Spotify

• News and data: https://onramp.media

Onramp does not provide financial, tax, or legal advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. This episode is for entertainment purposes only.

Why Anthropic Just Asked AI to Slow Down Sep 16, 2026

Show notes

Anthropic's Dario Amodei says AI labs must pace the frontier. Is it safety, or cost control ahead of an IPO? With Cam Stromme sitting in for Michael, four stories on the clock: that slowdown call, a Fed hike priced in with the 10-year above 5%, foreign money picking US stocks over Treasuries, and the bank deposit fight inside the CLARITY Act. Where's the signal, and where's the noise?

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CHAPTERS

00:00 - Intro

01:03 - Topic 1 - Anthropic's Dario Amodei Says AI Labs Must Pace the Frontier

09:23 - Topic 2 - Polymarket Prices a Fed Rate Hike as the 10-Year Yield Tops 5%

17:06 - Topic 3 - Foreign Investors Now Prefer US Stocks to US Treasuries

25:17 - Topic 4 - The Battle for Bank Deposits and the CLARITY Act Vote

33:39 - Wrap-Up & the Strategic Bitcoin Reserve

ABOUT THE SHOW

Signal vs Noise is a twice-weekly livestream and show unpacking the biggest stories across capital, markets, technology, and people, six minutes on the clock for each, with Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, Liam Nelson, and Brian Cubellis.

MORE FROM ONRAMP MEDIA

• The Last Trade, Final Settlement, and First Principles: https://www.youtube.com/@OnrampMedia

• Audio, every show: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1690709152 or search Onramp Bitcoin Media on Spotify

• News and data: https://onramp.media

Onramp does not provide financial, tax, or legal advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. This episode is for entertainment purposes only.

CLARITY is Coming Whether You Like It Or Not Sep 15, 2026

Show notes

New Clarity Act text dropped overnight ahead of a Senate vote on September 15, with the ethics sunset deleted and the ban broadened. Michael, Liam and Brian on why the institutional money is still on the sidelines waiting to see whether the United States fully commits.

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• Early Riders Insights: the best content in the ecosystem, weekly. https://www.earlyriders.com/research

ABOUT THIS EPISODE

Michael, Liam and Brian open on the Clarity Act, where new text dropped overnight ahead of a Senate vote on September 15, the ethics sunset was deleted entirely, and the ban got broader and enforceable by state attorneys general. They get into why the agencies are moving with or without the bill, the 17 attorneys general lining up against it, and why so much institutional money is still waiting to see whether the United States fully commits. The middle of the show is Dario Amodei's Pacing the Frontier essay and the responses from Trump, Sam Altman, Elon Musk and David Sacks, including whether this is the SBF playbook running again and what the IPO timing says about the motive. The back half runs through Nasdaq putting $100 million into Kraken's parent, TRM Labs doubling to a $2 billion valuation, Tether's $400 million private credit joint venture, and Block applying to the OCC for Builders Bank.

CHAPTERS

00:00 - Live on a Monday, and the 10 year at 5%

01:06 - The Clarity Act text gets rewritten overnight

03:50 - What the new ethics provisions actually ban

07:01 - Why stablecoins make Clarity strategically urgent

08:57 - The agencies move with or without the bill, and 17 AGs push back

13:27 - Polymarket: 82% in February, 14% in August, 30% now

15:10 - Dario Amodei's Pacing the Frontier essay

18:39 - Is this the SBF playbook running again?

22:46 - Trump, Altman, Musk and David Sacks respond

28:58 - IPO timing, the duopoly, and why you cannot police China

33:50 - Nasdaq puts $100 million into Kraken's parent

37:10 - TRM Labs doubles to a $2 billion valuation

39:01 - Tether's $400 million private credit joint venture

41:51 - Block applies for Builders Bank, plus Coinbase, Bitwise and Canada

46:46 - Single point of failure of the week: the Revolut breach

ABOUT THE SHOW

Final Settlement is a weekly show on capital markets, dealmaking, early-stage venture, Bitcoin applications, and protocol development, presented by Early Riders and Onramp Media with Michael Tanguma, Liam Nelson, and Brian Cubellis.

• Connect with Early Riders: https://www.earlyriders.com/contact

• Michael: https://x.com/MTanguma · Liam: https://x.com/Lnelson_21 · Brian: https://x.com/BackslashBTC

▶️ Watch the video: [YouTube link for this episode]

MORE FROM ONRAMP MEDIA

• The Last Trade and First Principles: https://www.youtube.com/@OnrampMedia

• Signal vs Noise, live twice a week: https://www.youtube.com/@SignalvsNoiseLIVE

• Audio, every show: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/id1690709152 or search Onramp Bitcoin Media on Spotify

• News and data: https://onramp.media

Onramp does not provide financial, tax, or legal advice. Nothing here is a recommendation to buy or sell any asset. This episode is for entertainment purposes only.

How AI Just Made Money A Back End Technology | Alfonso Gomez-Jordana Sep 14, 2026

Show notes

Connect with Early Riders — https://www.earlyriders.com/contact

Connect with Onramp — https://onrampbitcoin.com/contact-us/

Presented collaboratively by Early Riders & Onramp Media…

Final Settlement Interview Series: a one on one interview series hosted by Liam Nelson, Partner at Early Riders. One guest, and a deep conversation on the deals, the capital and the technology moving through bitcoin, so you can hear how the people actually doing the work think about where the future is going.

Liam sits down with Alfonso Gómez-Jordana, co-founder and CTO of Crossmint, who built Google's "I'm not a robot" captcha as an intern and now builds the payment rails those bots use. His argument is that money is becoming a back end technology: agents will hold the card, pick the rail, convert into stablecoins when an endpoint demands it, and inside of ten years most people will stop looking at prices or approving transactions at all. They get into why MoneyGram is replacing its core with stablecoins and finally monetizing float it never touched, why standing up stablecoin acceptance is now easier than getting a Stripe account, what breaks when a prompt injected agent is spending money that is not its own, and whether Bitcoin stays the neutral settlement asset once data centers find something better to mine.

Chapters

00:00 - Alfonso Gómez-Jordana, co-founder and CTO of Crossmint

01:37 - Building "I'm not a robot" at Google, then Firebase and WhatsApp

06:12 - Why an economy of agents needs programmable money

07:53 - Inside Crossmint: wallets, tokenization, licensed fiat swaps

09:50 - The clients: trading apps, MoneyGram, payroll, agent platforms

12:57 - Do stablecoins help remittances, or do they monetize the float

17:59 - The principal agent problem when a bot holds your money

24:57 - Why accepting a card is harder than accepting a stablecoin

26:52 - Hacks, trust, and who decides which rail gets used

30:47 - Tether, Circle, OpenUSD, and whether one stablecoin wins

34:05 - Bitcoin as neutral money, and the compute mined challengers

38:27 - Could Bitcoin's consensus follow AI compute

40:36 - What the industry got wrong about web3 and consumer crypto

43:47 - From meme coins to real assets and tokenized fundraising

47:18 - Euro stablecoins and why every country needs a strategy

53:13 - Past the singularity, money moves to the back end

If you found this valuable, please subscribe to Early Riders Insights for access to the best content in the ecosystem weekly: https://www.earlyriders.com/research

Keep up with Liam:

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The Real Reason Your Bitcoin Isn't as Safe as You Think | Tyler Campbell Sep 12, 2026

Show notes

First Principles: self custody is a skill you practice, not a device you buy. Tyler Campbell, product manager at Unchained and one of the most experienced multisig onboarders in bitcoin, joins Cam Stromme to rebuild custody as a habit rather than a purchase. The through line is the one they both keep coming back to: find your single points of failure, and then go use your keys before the day you have to.

---

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First Principles: a Bitcoin education series from Onramp Media, hosted by Cam Stromme, Head of Private Wealth at Onramp. Long, unhurried conversations that build the hard questions in bitcoin back up from the ground, one principle at a time, so you can make better decisions about your own wealth.

🎙️ About This Episode

Tyler Campbell spent years on Zoom calls walking people through their first hardware wallet, one seed phrase at a time, before moving to the product side at Unchained. That vantage point produces the argument at the center of this episode: almost everyone treats custody as something you buy once, and almost nobody treats it as something you rehearse. Cam pushes the comparison to gun ownership, where a person can own the right tool, attend one class, and still be useless in the moment that counts. Tyler's practical answer is smaller than people expect. Move a thousand dollars in. Move a thousand dollars back out. Do it before you need to. They also work through the privacy trade off of ever revealing yourself to a custody partner, what the entropy failure in the Coldcard exploit should actually change about your priors, why the lineage from Mt. Gox through FTX to Bybit is one repeated failure and not four, whether paying for custody is rational when you have been getting it free, and the conversation most bitcoiners avoid entirely: selling some of your bitcoin, and why Tyler is glad he did.

🧠 Chapters

00:00 - Two Bitcoiners, one Minneapolis meetup, ten years

01:19 - From private blockchains to bitcoin only

07:01 - Leaving Circle for Unchained in the Austin boom

14:42 - What collaborative custody actually is, and why onboarding is emotional work

20:53 - Eliminate your single points of failure

24:42 - The privacy trade off of using a partner

27:58 - Take it slow: move a thousand dollars in, then out

32:26 - You own the gun. You never went to the range.

35:52 - When the gold standard device is too much device

37:59 - The Coldcard hack: the entropy was not random

41:45 - Mt. Gox to FTX to Bybit: the same failure every time

44:51 - Do not get comfortable because the bullet missed you

47:21 - Should you actually pay for custody

51:15 - Still driving the car you bought ten years ago

54:22 - The cardinal sin: selling some of your bitcoin

59:58 - Bitcoin backed loans and what the rate tells you

1:07:31 - From onboarding calls to building the product

1:15:48 - Parting advice: tell a friend, try multisig

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🎧 The Last Trade | Final Settlement | First Principles | TLT Interview Series | FS Interview Series

Trump Just Promised $5,000 to Every American Sep 11, 2026

Show notes

An ex-OpenAI and Anthropic researcher says there is over a 10% chance AI ends humanity within the decade, and his warning has already pulled in 150 million impressions online. Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, Liam Nelson, and Brian Cubellis put four stories on the clock: Donald Trump promising $5,000 to every US adult if Republicans hold the midterms, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent saying nothing else matters if China wins the AI race, the 10-year Treasury yield near a 19-year high as the Treasury triples its bond buybacks, and a lightning round on OpenAI's contested 10,000-agent math proof. Where's the signal, and where's the noise?

---

🎙️ About The Show

Signal vs Noise: a twice weekly show unpacking the five biggest stories across capital markets, technology, and people, with five minutes on the clock for each.

🧠 Chapters

00:00 - Intro

01:08 - Topic 1 - Trump Promises $5,000 to Every American If the GOP Wins

07:13 - Topic 2 - An AI Researcher Says There's a 10% Chance AI Ends Humanity

~13:30 - Topic 3 - Bessent Says Nothing Matters If China Wins the AI Race

23:25 - Topic 4 - The Bond Market's Yield Crisis and the Treasury's Buyback Escalation

29:24 - Lightning Round and Parting Thoughts

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🎧 More from Onramp Media: The Last Trade | Final Settlement | First Principles | TLT / FS Interview Series

Bessent Just Dealt Bitcoin a Winning Hand Sep 10, 2026

Show notes

The Last Trade: Scott Bessent told yen traders "I am the house now," and one day later the Treasury lifted its buyback program to $6 billion a day while the ten year yield hit fresh highs anyway. Jackson, Michael, and Brian break down what it means when intervention stops moving the tape, why a yen carry trade unwind is the tail risk nobody is pricing, and how Norway's $2.3 trillion fund cutting government bonds fits the same story.

---

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The Last Trade: a weekly, bitcoin-native podcast covering the intersection of bitcoin, tech, & finance on a macro scale. Hosted by Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, & Brian Cubellis. Join us as we dive into what bitcoin means for how individuals & institutions save, invest, & propagate their purchasing power through time. It's not just another asset… in the digital age, it's The Last Trade that investors will ever need to make.

🎙️ About This Episode

The show opens on the Treasury lifting its buyback program from a $2 billion daily maximum to $6 billion starting Thursday, and on the fact that ten year and thirty year yields blew out anyway, one day after Scott Bessent told markets he is the house now on the dollar yen. Jackson walks through the yen carry trade, estimated anywhere from $4 trillion to $20 trillion, and what a 2024 style unwind did to equities and Bitcoin in a single session. Brian argues the whole exercise is the case for owning a monetary unit no committee can steer, while Michael reads the announcement itself as the tell: you do not say you are in control if you are. From there the conversation follows the capital that is actually moving, with Norway's $2.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund trimming government bonds, the world's largest managers rebuilding gold positions, and the bank capital rules that price allocated gold at zero and paper gold at 85%. The back half runs through Iran using Bitcoin and stablecoins to move trade, the MetaPlanet compensation structure and what the treasury company unwind cost retail, Liquid losing 4,000 BTC to a known vulnerability, the Malone Lam $245 million case, and the Anthropic resignation thread that put a ten percent extinction estimate in front of 100 million people.

🧠 Chapters

00:00 - Housekeeping, Philly happy hour, and tokenizing iBit

05:00 - Treasury raises buybacks to $6 billion a day

07:25 - Brian: the bond market does not care about intervention

10:03 - Michael: reading what they are not saying

15:31 - Bessent is the house, and the yen carry trade

18:28 - You do not announce that you are in control

21:03 - Norway's $2.3 trillion fund cuts government bonds

23:44 - Why banks hold allocated gold but not paper gold

29:26 - Iran turns to Bitcoin and stablecoins to move trade

36:19 - The coming split between clean and dirty Bitcoin

40:06 - MetaPlanet, the comp package, and the DAT unwind

46:42 - Retail got fleeced, not institutions

49:35 - Physical attacks and the market structure gap

54:51 - The third path: distribute trust, not one key

57:23 - Liquid loses 4,000 BTC to a known vulnerability

1:03:29 - Malone Lam, $245 million, and fake Google calls

1:09:58 - Anthropic resignation and the 10% extinction claim

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🎧 The Last Trade | The Last Trade Interview Series | Final Settlement | First Principles

AI Cybersecurity Just Stole $500M AGAIN (What's Next?) Sep 09, 2026

Show notes

Connect with Early Riders — https://www.earlyriders.com/contact

Connect with Onramp — https://onrampbitcoin.com/contact-us/

Presented collaboratively by Early Riders & Onramp Media…

Final Settlement is a weekly podcast covering capital markets, dealmaking, early-stage venture, bitcoin applications and protocol development.

Michael, Liam, and Brian open the first ever Final Settlement live stream on the Liquid Network exploit that drained roughly 4,000 Bitcoin, about $320 million, after the attacker inflated the supply of LBTC and pegged out against reserves the sidechain did not have. They get into hot keys and federation quorums, why the base chain held while the layer above it did not, and where the real spectrum of risk sits between an early stage protocol and a bank. The middle of the show turns to Ben Carmen open sourcing Lightspark's lightning service provider, GPT-6 Astra and the AGI question, and Matt Pines and StarCloud on physical superintelligence. The back half is settlement plumbing: 21 banks including Bank of America, Citi and Goldman lining up behind a joint dollar stablecoin, why the collateral layer is the real prize, the SEC's proposed transfer agent overhaul, Circle buying Tazapay, and the rumor that ARK, BlackRock and Fidelity could trade tokenized funds through a transfer agent alone. They close on AMC's chief executive going after Robinhood over tokenized stock, and the meme coins now paired to it.

Chapters

00:00 - The first ever Final Settlement live stream

01:37 - 4,000 Bitcoin drained from the Liquid Network

04:21 - How the LBTC supply was inflated

06:11 - Hot keys, quorums, and why TradFi moves slowly

09:21 - The added risk of moving off the base chain

12:54 - A spectrum of risk, from Mt. Gox to open protocols

15:45 - Ben Carmen open sources Lightspark's LSP

18:56 - GPT-6 Astra, Claude 5.1, and the AGI question

22:27 - Matt Pines, StarCloud, and physical superintelligence

24:26 - 21 banks line up behind a joint stablecoin

25:24 - Why the collateral layer is the real prize

29:37 - Transfer agents, T+0, and who owns the ledger

37:16 - Felix Pago, Open Reserve, and Circle buying Tazapay

41:39 - The rumor: tokenized funds from ARK, BlackRock, Fidelity

45:49 - Pledging your ETF and the daisy chain risk

48:34 - AMC's CEO versus Robinhood on tokenized stock

52:54 - Meme coins paired to tokenized equity

If you found this valuable, please subscribe to Early Riders Insights for access to the best content in the ecosystem weekly: https://www.earlyriders.com/research

Keep up with Michael:

https://x.com/MTanguma

Keep up with Liam:

https://x.com/Lnelson_21

Keep up with Brian:

https://x.com/BackslashBTC

OpenAI Says AGI Has Arrived (90% of Jobs Are Next) Sep 09, 2026

Show notes

OpenAI just declared that AGI has arrived, launching GPT-6 Astra five days ago with materials calling it the start of the "AGI era." Jackson Mikalic, Michael Tanguma, Liam Nelson, and Brian Cubellis put four stories on the clock: what GPT-6 Astra means for jobs and the labor market, Norway's $2.3 trillion sovereign wealth fund proposing to cut its US Treasury holdings while institutional money managers rebuild gold positions, the demographic milestone of people over 65 now outnumbering children under five worldwide for the first time in recorded history, and a housing market where sellers can't sell and buyers can't get help with their mortgages. Where's the signal, and where's the noise?

---

🎙️ About The Show

Signal vs Noise: a twice weekly show unpacking the five biggest stories across capital markets, technology, and people, with five minutes on the clock for each.

🧠 Chapters

00:00 - Intro

01:05 - Topic 1 - Global Food Prices and a Housing Market Nobody Can Sell

09:35 - Topic 2 - Elderly Now Outnumber Children Worldwide for the First Time

15:45 - Topic 3 - Gold Gets a Bid as Norway Proposes Cutting Treasuries

24:21 - Topic 4 - OpenAI Says AGI Has Arrived With GPT-6 Astra

💡 Subscribe & Watch Live:

▶️ https://www.youtube.com/@SignalvsNoiseLIVE

✖️ https://x.com/OnrampMedia

📰 Your 1-Stop News & Data Source:

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