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16: What to Invest in During a Recession (2022 Edition) Jul 08, 2022

Show notes

Everyone wants to know how to invest during a recession. We get it—things aren’t looking too good. Inflation is crossing all-time high territory, your rent is going up and so are interest rates, and many investors are wondering if a stock market crash is on the horizon. It’s normal to be scared, but it’s even smarter to do something while all the other investors are trapped in analysis paralysis. If you do want to invest, what should you do?

We’re back with another bonus episode of On The Market where we’re tackling the not-so-simple question, “should I invest in 2022?” If you think a bunch of real estate investors are biased, you may be right, but we’d highly encourage you to listen to the very end of this episode, as each guest on our expert panel explains why they’re doing what they’re doing and why you should try it too.

Recessions are traditionally when much of the population loses money, but it doesn’t have to be that way for informed investors. A world of opportunity is waiting for you, even if you have no money or experience going into this year. If you take what our expert guests say to heart, there’s a good chance you’ll not only make it out alive in 2022, but you’ll also have a lot more wealth than when you started.

In This Episode We Cover

July housing market updates and what has happened since the start of the year

Is the housing market starting to cool? And if so, what should investors do?

How to start investing NOW and getting a real estate deal in the next thirty days

What to do if/when the housing market crashes (and how to profit from it)

How to invest in 2022 and whether or not buy-and-hold rentals are still a safe bet

The no-cash-needed way to start making money in real estate

And So Much More!

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Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-16

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15: Renting vs. Buying a House: Which Makes More Sense in 2022? w/Ken Johnson Jul 04, 2022

Show notes

Renting vs buying a house. It’s an easy decision. If you have the option to buy, you should buy. Shouldn’t you? That line of thinking, according to Ken Johnson, real estate economics expert, can cost you a lot of money. His team at Florida Atlantic University, along with other data–first economic experts, have spent a lot of time studying whether or not it makes more sense to rent or buy a home.

Ken breaks down how most Americans have gotten the rent vs buy debate all wrong, how renters can beat homeowners to long-term wealth, and which housing conditions lead to better deals. We also bring in our expert panel of guests to get their take on whether or not owning is a smarter choice than renting. You’ll hear multiple opinions on how you can make a more lucrative decision on your first primary residence and whether being a “renter-landlord” makes sense in 2022.

Surprisingly, in a time when more people are being forced into renting, Ken describes how “corporate landlords” could benefit the housing market, not deteriorate it. If you’re worried about the United States turning into a “renter nation”, Ken offers a glimmer of hope on why that may not be the case, and how even if it was, it wouldn’t be a bad thing.

In This Episode We Cover

Renting vs buying a home and which decision makes the most sense for you in 2022

Which real estate markets are about to see wild price drops in the coming years

The housing affordability problem and why renting has become cheaper than owning

Whether or not more corporate/Wall Street landlords is a good thing for renters

Subsidizing your mortgage/rent by house hacking or rent hacking

How renting and buying rental properties could be a win-win for average Americans

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Connect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” Forums

Try The BiggerPockets “Rent or Buy Tool”

Big Radius Tool

BH&J Buy vs. Rent Index

Top 100 Housing Markets

Waller, Weeks and Johnson Rental Index

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Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-15

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14: The Crash Predictors Are Wrong, Here’s Why w/Logan Mohtashami Jun 27, 2022

Show notes

The housing market is confusing, to say the least. In 2020, at the start of lockdowns, nearly everyone you spoke to had the opinion that the housing market was headed straight for a crash. Not only was this wrong, but it was the opposite of what the data was saying. While mainstream news outlets and “2008 crash bros” were painting a picture of foreclosures, price drops, and bottomed-out demand, Logan Mohtashami was singing a far different tune.

Logan had been looking diligently at the data (like he does most days over at HousingWire) and he saw patterns that didn’t at all reflect the last recession. Instead, Logan predicted a runup in prices, hot buyer demand, and very low rates of foreclosures. In a time when almost everyone with a public voice was calling for an apocalyptic housing scene, Logan predicted much differently.

Now, two or so years later, we can see just how right he was. We’ve brought this beloved data-first housing market deep diver onto the show to answer some of our most burning questions. Logan hits on how housing inventory got so low, what will force demand back down, why new property taxes are bad news for buyers, and the smartest move an investor can make in 2022.

In This Episode We Cover

How to dig ourselves out of the housing inventory hole we’ve created

The “forbearance” myth that most housing market forecasters missed

Why buying a home may be the smartest hedge against inflation of the decade

Property taxes and why homeowners should (or shouldn’t) start to worry about them

Housing markets to look out for that may see demand drop after huge appreciation pumps

Why investors need to look at data “the right way” instead of relying on prominent internet forecasters

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

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Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Nearly 1 in 5 Sellers is Dropping Their Price

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Is The Housing Market About to Collapse? What Investors Need to Know

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13: Why Investors MUST Change The Way They Buy Real Estate in 2022 w/James Dainard Jun 20, 2022

Show notes

House flipping, rental property investing, wholesaling, and every other type of real estate investing has had an incredibly profitable run-up over the past two years. Days on market shrunk as buyer demand soared and supply dried up. Flippers, rental property investors, and everyone in between saw profit margins they couldn’t have imagined before. But, now that may all change.

Rising interest rates have stopped many would-be homebuyers from making offers, forcing them back into renting instead of sending in over-asking bids. Now, home equity and flipping profits are starting to see a lag, as mortgage applications significantly slow down, showings become far less crowded, and price cuts become the new norm. Are we at the beginning of a real estate recession, and if so, how can we best prepare to still profit during the downturn?

James Dainard, master flipper, investor, and “On The Market” guest, has had to readjust almost every way he analyzes real estate deals. He’s managed to cash in some serious flipping profits over the past two years but understands that this year will be different. He shares exactly how smaller landlords, real estate investors, flippers, and wholesalers can “pad their profits” so they don’t get burnt on their next real estate deal.

In This Episode We Cover

Why price drops have doubled even though many homes are selling above asking price

Seller FOMO (fear of missing out) and why now may be a great time to find phenomenal deals

Why cash flow has reemerged as the most important investing metric for rental property owners

The 1% rule and why using it on every property could cost you money

Readjusting your expectations as a flipper and how to “pad your profits” the right way

Whether or not you should “trade up” your rental properties to protect your portfolio

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Connect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” Forums

Mortgage Applications Decrease in Latest MBA Weekly Survey

Nearly 1 in 5 Sellers is Dropping Their Price

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ProjectRE with James Dainard

Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-13

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12: Inflation & Interest Rate News: The Ugly Truth Investors NEED to Know Jun 17, 2022

Show notes

Inflation and interest rates—two things we rarely talk about when the market is going smoothly. Just this week, the Federal Reserve made some stark moves surrounding interest rates with the hope of cooling down the rampant inflation we’re experiencing. But what exactly is causing all this inflation and are interest rates really going to change anything?

Welcome to a bonus “On The Market” update from your favorite data deli nerd, Dave Meyer, who serves you fresh salami and cheese similes and turkey and mayo metaphors so you can know the housing market a bit better. This time, we’re talking about how inflation and interest rates rises could affect the housing market, what’s behind all the madness, and what it means for you, the local homebuyer or real estate investor.

The recent updates from the Fed are BIG news, but they shouldn't worry you too much if you know the reasons behind their decisions. Staying ahead of the inflation curve can help put you in a position to build wealth, even when everyone else thinks the sky is falling.

In This Episode We Cover

Interest rate updates and why the Fed and Jerome Powell are making these drastic decisions

Inflation explained and why we’re experiencing such high price surges

Supply and demand and how this lopsided duo is hurting the economy

What would need to happen before a more normalized market comes about

Whether or not an economic recession is around the corner

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Connect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” Forums

How to Prepare for a Recession

Our Inflation Dilemma—What The Fed Won’t Tell You

The Fed’s Plan for Future Interest Rates

Get Housing Market Data from Redfin

Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-12

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11: Migration, Inflation, and Why Big Cities Are Losing Their "Desirable" Status w/Redfin’s Taylor Marr Jun 13, 2022

Show notes

Over the past two years, home prices have looked as if they’re never going to drop. With record-low interest rates, a newly formed remote work culture, and millennials at peak homebuying age, who would have thought that lower home prices would come so soon. Although traditionally affordable areas of the United State are still teetering on “overpriced” status, many high-priced markets are seeing negative population growth, and home prices are getting hit as a result.

This is just one of the topics we touch on in our in-depth interview with Redfin’s Deputy Chief Economist, Taylor Marr. Taylor, like our own Dave Meyer, spends his days digging through the most important real estate data around. Whether it’s housing market updates, inflation and interest rate changes, or migration patterns, Taylor is on it long before you read one of his team’s excellent articles. As a key member of one of the leading companies distributing accurate, timely real estate data, he knows the housing market better than almost anyone else.

Taylor’s insight is invaluable if you’re looking to migrate to a new part of the nation, invest in a new market, or debate whether or not to sell a property you own. He goes over supply and demand, how the “lock-in” effect has stalled the housing market, which real estate markets are primed for huge growth, and which could suffer serious financial fallout from a lack of homebuyers, renters, and demand.

In This Episode We Cover

What caused so many Americans to buy homes in new parts of the country

How “cash-rich” homebuyers caused region-specific inflation in their areas

The migration patterns to pay attention to when analyzing a real estate market

Which cities are primed for rent and home price growth, declines, or stagnation

How the “lock-in” effect is prompting more homebuyers to wait out the housing market

Why we’ve started to see home sales decline as more homebuyers resort to renting

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Stay Up to Date on The Biggest Housing Market Moves

Inventory Shortage Could Continue As Interest Rates Rise and Homeowners Feel “Locked-In”

What Can U-Haul Rates Tell Us About U.S. Migration Patterns?

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Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-11

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10: How to Prepare for a Recession (and Profit!) in 2022 w/J Scott Jun 06, 2022

Show notes

One man knows how to prepare for a recession arguably better than anyone else. He’s been able to build wealth during multiple different economic cycles, not only surviving but thriving in the process. With decades of experience in real estate investing, advising, and mentoring, J Scott, author of Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing, stands as a testament that not everyone gets washed away when an economic tsunami comes crashing down.

We spend some time asking J about how we got to the current economic stage we’re in, what the economy looks like today, and how we can prepare ourselves for the future of high interest rates, falling asset prices, and real estate steals of the century. If you’re feeling anxious about investing in 2022, J Scott is the guest you should listen to.

For our due diligence portion of the show, we’ll be asking James Dainard, Jamil Damji, and Kathy Fettke all about recession prep and rebalancing your real estate portfolio. While almost everyone in our expert panel has different advice for different investing strategies, they all agree on one thing: there is still plenty of money to be made in the realm of real estate!

In This Episode We Cover

Economic cycles explained and why we may be “overdue” for a crash

What causes inflation and why it manifests itself in rising interest rates

How to prepare for a recession, even if you’re brand new to real estate investing

Wholesaling vs. flipping and which strategy will win during economic downturns

Whether or not we’ll see home prices drop if a recession hits in the near future

How to “rebalance” your real estate portfolio so you don’t catch a falling knife

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

Seasonally-Adjusted Housing Data with Redfin

Grab J’s Book “Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing” and Use Code “MARKETPROOF” at Checkout

Connect with Other Investors in the “On The Market” Forums

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Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing by J Scott

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Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-10

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9: 3 Types of Real Estate Deals that Work in ANY Market Condition May 30, 2022

Show notes

Home flipping, wholesaling, and BRRRR-ing rental properties are all solid options in the real estate investing space. But, as most experienced investors know, different markets favor different strategies. In some markets, flipping outweighs the risk of renting out a property, while in others, something like the BRRRR strategy is a no-brainer. In 2022, after two years worth of wild appreciation and huge rent raises, which strategy is the best for investors?

We couldn’t have this sort of debate without our buy-and-hold expert, Henry Washington, our master house flipper, James Dainard, and our wholesale addict, Jamil Damji. Together, they each bring their own unique outlook on these strategies and give advice on which is the best to use for certain types of deals. Henry, James, and Jamil bring real-life deals to debate, and you’ll hear how experts analyze properties, even with just basic information.

If you’ve enjoyed listening to On The Market, we would love it if you gave us your feedback on the On The Market BiggerPockets Forums. Participate in our audience feedback survey or give us your take on the current housing market. Let us know what you think so we can keep making episodes that help you on your investing journey!

In This Episode We Cover

Whether or not secondary home sales will see a drop off after record purchases

How the “Lock-In” effect could cause housing inventory to shrink even more

Throwing away a $2.5M wholesale deal to build far greater wealth

Wholetailing vs. flipping and how to know which strategy works for which property

Whether to BRRRR or flip a property and the long-term effects of your decision

Short-term rental sales and whether or not vacation rental occupancy rates will decline

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

How the "Lock-in Effect" Will Impact the Housing Market for Decade

Demand For Second Homes Is Way Down From Last Year’s Boom

Connect with Dave and Our Panel of Guests

Henry’s BiggerPockets Profile

James’ BiggerPockets Profile

Jamil’s BiggerPockets Profile

Kathy’s BiggerPockets Profile

Check the full show notes here: https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-9

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8: 2022 Housing Market Recap: Will It Get Worse Before it Gets Better? May 23, 2022

Show notes

When we talk about recession indicators, we usually talk about things like housing price drops, mass layoffs, heavy unemployment, and overleveraged consumers. It seems like every time you turn on the news, someone is touting a return of the great recession, without much to back it up. Since the housing market plays such a pivotal role in the economy, we decided to have ahousing market recap with our expert investors Henry Washington, James Dainard, and Kathy Fettke, to see if their metrics point to a recession.

In a strange time like 2022, almost every real estate investor is starting to get nervous. Home prices continue to rise, and inventory is almost as low as it’s ever been, but at the same time, high interest rates don’t make buying expensive homes attractive anymore. Is there still any juice left to squeeze in this year’s housing market, or are we on a fast track to foreclosures, price cuts, and peak buying opportunities for investors?

In this episode, we’ll touch on it all so you can stay confident in these wild times. Dave and our panel of experts will explore why showings have dropped for new homes, unemployment rate updates, “data traps” you can fall into, how tech stock slumps pose a threat to real estate, and how to adjust your numbers when money costs more.

In This Episode We Cover

The current housing market supply and demand and what it foreshadows for the future

What the “recession indicators” are saying and why it differs from mainstream thought

Inflation, employment, and which industry may have layoffs lying around the corner

The “lock-in” effect causing most homeowners to hold instead of sell

What a “recession” would look like in 2022 and planning for price drops

And So Much More!

Links from the Show