On The Market

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Multifamily Is at High Risk of Continuing Its Historic Crash in 2024—Here’s Why

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Jump to topic:

00:00 Intro

01:38 Real Estate Syndications Explained

11:11 Things Have Changed

19:07 Multifamily is a “Traffic Collision”

24:29 WHERE to Invest

29:20 Underwater Syndications

38:23 Are Syndications Dead?

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The Fed Finally Cuts Rates, but Will It Even Matter? w/NYT’s Jeanna Smialek Sep 26, 2024

Show notes

The Fed’s recent rate cut signaled something clear about the US economy, but what are they trying to say? With a bolder rate cut than many of us expected, homebuyers, business owners, and real estate investors are seeing the light at the end of the high-rate tunnel, where borrowing money and buying houses could come at a lower cost. But with markets already anticipating a rate cut, did the recent cut even really matter?

Today, Federal Reserve reporter from The New York Times, Jeanna Smialek, shares her thoughts on what the Fed move meant after studying them full-time for over a decade. Jeanna believes that the Fed feels confident, even if this recent rate cut was overdue. Inflation has seen a substantial dropoff, but on the other hand, unemployment is rising, and Americans are getting nervous. Did the Fed move fast enough?

Jeanna also shares the future rate cuts we can expect from the Fed, with more potentially coming this year and a sizable series of cuts already lined up for 2025. How significant will the cuts be, and will they be enough to stop unemployment from getting out of control? How will rent prices and home prices move due to more rate cuts? We’re answering it all in this episode!

In This Episode We Cover

The Fed’s recent 0.50% rate cut explained and their forecast for 2025 rate cuts

The signal the Fed is sending by making a bigger rate cut (and preparing for more to come)

Why the Fed decided NOW was the time to finally cut rates (and whether it was too late)

Inflation updates and good news for the slowing of growing prices

Housing affordability and whether or not these rate cuts will help homebuyers/renters

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

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Federal Reserve Cuts Rates By 0.50%, a Bigger Cut Than Expected

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Jump to topic:

00:00 Intro

01:40 The Fed Makes a BIG Move

05:31 Why Now?

07:40 Effects of a 0.50% Rate Cut

12:16 Inflation Trends

15:07 Will Home and Rent Prices Rise?

22:42 2025 Rate Cuts

27:20 How the Fed Has Changed

Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-255

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How to Know Whether You’ll Scale (or Fail) in Real Estate Sep 23, 2024

Show notes

Your real estate business could fail if you don’t do this right. We’ve seen it happen time and time again. A business finds success, starts growing at lightning speed to capture all the demand, and then burns out, leaving the business owner or investor (i.e., YOU) cleaning up the pieces of spectacular debris. Growing your business can be a HUGE mistake, but scaling it rarely is.

Today, we’re teaching you how to do just that—scaling your business to new heights so you can work less, your team (or future team) can accomplish more, and your wealth compounds in the background. And one person on the On the Market panel knows how to scale a business arguably better than anyone else—Kathy Fettke! Today, Kathy and her husband, Rich, are on to teach you how to start Scaling Smart (which is also the name of their new book!).

Kathy and Rich touch on why once-giants like WeWork failed so fast, how overgrowing can kill everything you’ve worked for, how to start hiring (and who to hire first), and the “never enough” trap that can keep you working for years (or decades) longer than you should. Plus, they even coach Henry and James on their own scaling struggles!

In This Episode We Cover

Why “scaling” (NOT growing) your real estate business is the smartest way to build wealth

The thirteen questions that will stop you from growing too fast (and failing)

Defining your “why” and the reason most investors burn out even after building wealth

When to start hiring employees, and what tasks you should outsource to them

Incentivizing employees to work hard for you while they build their own financial freedom

Being a “humble leader” and realizing that you’re NOT the best person for every job

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

See Dave, Kathy, and Rich at BPCON2024 in Cancun!

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The 3 Main Stages of Scaling Your Small Business

Grab Rich and Kathy’s New Book “Scaling Smart”

Jump to topic:

00:00 Intro

02:16 Why Big Companies Fail

08:00 How to NOT Overgrow

14:46 The “Never Enough” Trap

18:57 When to Start Hiring

26:04 Being a Humble Leader

26:53 Incentivizing Employees

38:19 Scale Smart and Live Your Life!

Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-254

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US Economic Outlook Significantly Stronger Than You’d Think w/Top Forecaster Joe Brusuelas Sep 19, 2024

Show notes

The US economy isn’t doing as well as you think—it’s doing even better. While mainstream media outlets and grocery prices may make you feel that the US economy is struggling, the data points to something different. Inflation is getting under control, the Fed is about to lower rates, recession risks could be shrinking, and a long-term growth trend is emerging. The American economy is leading what Joe Brusuelas calls the “global recovery.”

Named 2023 “Best Rate Forecaster” by Bloomberg, Joe has an unmatched view of the economy at a macro and microeconomic level. Today, we’re talking to Joe about the state of the US economy and why it’s outperforming global players like China. Joe shares the “secret sauce” that is helping the US take center stage in global economic growth, which could keep us on course to see continued economic success for years to come.

But, with China’s economy showing cracks, the Middle East conflict getting more tense by the day, and the risk of recession still top of mind, what’s next for the US economy? Joe gives his economic outlook and shares the most significant risks the US economy could face, plus why he sees a BIG Fed rate cut coming in 2025.

In This Episode We Cover

The state of the US economy and why we’re seeing such unmatched economic growth

The “secret sauce” that makes the American economy particularly efficient

China’s growing economic troubles and whether it could bleed into the US economy

Fed rate cut predictions and why we may see a BIG drop in rates by this time next year

Joe’s US economic forecast and the regions of the US real estate investors MUST watch

Commercial real estate risks and whether we should still be worried about “the wall” of maturing debt

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

On The Market Podcast 196 - China Falters, Israel’s Oil Danger, and Russia’s Assets Used Against Them w/Joe Brusuelas

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Grab Dave’s Newest Book, “Start with Strategy”

Jump to topic:

00:00 Intro

01:51 US Economy is Booming

06:52 Recession Risk?

08:43 China’s Economic Trap

13:31 Will This Hurt the US?

14:45 Middle East Oil Risks

17:42 US Economic Forecast

25:27 What Commercial Crash?

27:28 Fed Rate Cuts

Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-253

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What Happens When Rates REALLY Drop? Probably Not What You Think w/Logan Mohtashami Sep 16, 2024

Show notes

Are we finally at the end stages of this harsh housing market? With housing inventory increasing, mortgage rates steadily falling, and inflation cooling, we might be returning to a much healthier time to buy a house. But one of these improvements we’ve seen over the past year could begin reversing, and that’s creating some interesting future scenarios. One that even we’re surprised to hear as we bring on top housing market analyst Logan Mohtashami.

Logan has referred to 2022-2023’s housing market as “savagely unhealthy,” but he’s a bit more optimistic now that we’re seeing relief. While we’re still not at 2019 inventory levels (which were already low), we’re slowly getting there. However, we could see the positive inventory trend start to reverse, leading to even more affordability problems for homebuyers. So what has to happen for affordability to see meaningful improvement?

Today, Logan is giving us his take on housing inventory, where mortgage rates could be heading, and why we may NOT see a spike in home prices even if rates fall significantly (something most analysts are bullish on).

In This Episode We Cover

Logan’s housing market, mortgage rate, and inventory forecast

Why our increasing housing inventory could reverse once rates start to fall

The one thing holding affordability back and whether Logan has hopes of it improving

Why watching the labor market and jobs numbers will help you predict mortgage rates

Were we wrong about the “lower rates = higher home prices” premise?

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

On The Market Podcast 86 - Here’s What Will Cause Mortgage Rates to Finally Fall w/Logan Mohtashami

Learn More from Logan

Know the Ins-and-Outs of Real Estate with “Real Estate by the Numbers"

Jump to topic:

00:00 Intro

02:05 The "Baby Pivot" Stage

05:46 The Home Sales Recession

08:49 Housing Inventory Update

15:30 Rates Will Decline MORE If...

19:59 Mortgage Rate Forecast

24:48 When Will Affordability Improve?

29:05 Biggest Takeaways

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Would You Vote for Any of These Market-Changing Economic Policies? Sep 12, 2024

Show notes

No matter who wins your vote during the presidential debates, odds are, the housing market will still have its problems. We’ve got high building costs, low inventory, and slow bureaucratic procedures that stop homes from being built or renovated. So, what would WE do if we were in charge of the country’s economic policies, and how would we use them to make a better housing market?

Welcome to the 2024 On the Market debates, where Dave, Henry, James, and Kathy duke it out over who has the best housing policy, economic plan, and…presidential slogan. We’re putting our plans out in the open for you to vote on. Dave is focusing on construction prices, Henry wants to “Make Housing Affordable Again,” Kathy is rallying to reduce government spending, and James wants to fast-track building and renovations so housing inventory can grow.

Who has the best housing market policy, and are there any you’d personally want to see on the ballot come the next election? Leave a review and let us know your thoughts, or give your take over on our YouTube channel!

In This Episode We Cover

Four economic policies we’d put into place TODAY to save the housing market

Tax breaks for investors and builders and why the government MUST incentivize affordable housing

Speeding up permitting times with a plan that could help those who can’t afford home repairs

Why we NEED more Americans learning the trades before it’s too late

Are prefab homes the future of affordable housing in America? Here’s why Dave thinks so

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

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How the Financial Policies of Trump and Harris Could Impact Real Estate Investors

Live Like Jett Foundation

Grab Kathy’s New Book “Scaling Smart”

Jump to topic:

00:00 Intro

03:57 Make Housing Affordable Again

12:31 Path of Progress

21:21 Scaling Smart

32:19 Construction is Too Expensive

Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-251

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Trump vs. Harris Economic Plans: Taxes, Affordable Housing, and Inflation Sep 09, 2024

Show notes

How will the Trump and Harris economic plans affect your investing? One candidate is looking to increase affordable housing and give homebuyers a break on their first property. The other plans to keep taxes low so you can save more money. Both are concerned about inflation and rising costs, but will either of their plans correct the national budget deficit we constantly find ourselves in? We’re digging into the 2024 election economics on this BiggerNews episode with economist Joel Naroff.

First, we’re discussing what happens economically during elections as Americans brace for a new president. Then, we dive into Harris’ economic plan and stance on inflation, cost of living, and affordable housing. She also has her eye on raising taxes for high-income earners, but will she bring things back to the pre-Trump era?

Next, the Trump economic plan. Just like in his presidency, Trump plans to reduce taxes even more, which could help those on social security and those who make their income from tips. The question is, will this loss of tax revenue put too much of a dent in our government’s budget and push us further into a deficit? Could Trump’s pro-tariff stance help stimulate local manufacturing and increase tax revenue from imported goods? We’re answering it all on this BiggerNews!

In This Episode We Cover

Trump vs. Harris’ economic plans explained and how they may affect investors

More affordable housing and Harris’ call to build millions of more housing units

Trump’s plan to push foreign goods out of the US with higher import tariffs

Rolling back Trump’s tax cuts and how Harris could increase taxes on corporations and high-earners

Social security income and the benefit (but high cost) of lowering taxes on it

How both of these plans could affect the national budget deficit

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Stay Updated on Investing News with the BiggerPockets Blog

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How the Financial Policies of Trump and Harris Could Impact Real Estate Investors

Naroff Economics

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Jump to topic:

00:00 Intro

01:52 Election Economics

03:42 Harris’ Plan

8:38 More Affordable Housing?

12:16 Higher Taxes?

15:10 Trump’s Plan

19:11 More Social Security Income?

21:47 Eliminating Taxes on Tips

24:22 National Budget Deficit

Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-250

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Job Numbers Turn Out to Be Overinflated, Will the Fed Make a Hard Pivot? Sep 05, 2024

Show notes

One startup is aiming to end traditional real estate commissions for good. Jobs numbers get their most significant downgrade in over a decade, forcing the Fed to rethink its rate-cutting schedule. And if that wasn’t enough, home sales fell in a historically hot month of the housing market. But are the expert investors worried? In this headlines episode, we’re sharing the latest news affecting the housing market and what YOU can do now to still make money in real estate, no matter the headline hype.

First, we’re talking about the latest home sales numbers. With a slow summer homebuying season, we may return to a “balanced” market where investors can thrive if they know what they’re doing. What could bring more demand to the market? Lower mortgage rates. And with the latest revision on job numbers, downgrading job growth significantly, the Fed may be forced to pivot and make bigger moves when cutting rates. Will it happen?

Lastly, we’ll discuss the new state of real estate agent commissions. After the groundbreaking NAR lawsuit that put agent commissions in limbo, a new startup has set out to offer flat-fee real estate agent services in an à la carte fashion. Will paying just a few hundred dollars get you the level of agent experience you need to close better real estate deals? We’re discussing it all in this episode!

In This Episode We Cover

The new real estate startup that could put traditional agent commissions in jeopardy

What investors should know as home sales drop and whether it's an opportunity

Planning for mortgage rates to fall and how to build in more investing upside if they do

The latest job numbers REVISION putting our economy in a different spot than we thought

Whether or not the Fed will change course now that job numbers don’t look as strong

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

Join the Future of Real Estate Investing with Fundrise

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The NAR Will Eliminate 6% Commission Standards and Pay $418 Million in Damages After Settling Lawsuit

Two Things The Latest Home Sales Numbers Say About The Real Estate Market

U.S. job growth revised down by the most since 2009

After winning a landmark case against real estate agents, this startup aims to replace them with a flat fee

Economic Confidence Up Slightly in August

Pre-Order Kathy’s New Book “Scaling Smart”

Jump to topic:

00:00 Intro

01:15 Home Sales, Prices Drop

11:15 Planning for Rates to Fall

17:33 Job Numbers Get Revised

28:07 Agents Go Flat-Fee

Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-249

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Recession Indicators Go Off, Is the Housing Market Safe? Sep 02, 2024

Show notes

Recession fears are increasing. The stock market has taken substantial hits, housing inventory is climbing, and bank account balances are starting to fall. So, with more economic turmoil, we have to ask: will the housing market crash? And if we get a housing market crash, how bad (or good) will it be for investors? Could we see a 2008-style selloff, or should we be more prepared for small dips worth taking advantage of? Today, we’re asking two top investors these questions, one of whom literally wrote the book on Recession-Proof Real Estate Investing.

J Scott and James Dainard join us on today’s episode to discuss market crash predictions, scenarios, and opportunities for real estate investors. Both J and James experienced the 2008 housing market crash—an economic event almost impossible to forget. But is 2024 shaping up for a sharp decline like 2008, or will we simply see a slower real estate market like most people had expected when interest rates began to rise?

If the market DOES crash, what should you look for to take advantage, and how do you ensure you don’t get caught biting off more than you can chew? J and James break down their game plans if prices fall and why buying now could set you up for wealth ten years from now, IF you can handle the “fear” of buying when others are running from real estate.

In This Episode We Cover

New housing market “crash” predictions and how low prices could go

Why economic “fear” is rising now, and the recession indicators that are going off

Rising housing inventory and why experienced investors expected this already

The difference between the 2008 housing market crash and today

What could cause a housing crash and how to know it’s time to buy

The immense opportunities for investors that 99% of Americans will pass up

And So Much More!

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Let Us Know What You Thought of the Show!

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Why Has the Housing Market Not Crashed in Over 15 Years?

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Jump to topic:

(00:00) Intro

(04:01) New Recession Fears

(14:25) Is This Like 2008?

(18:05) What Will Cause a Crash

(31:11) What to Do During a Crash

(36:56) Opportunity for Investors

Check out more resources from this show on BiggerPockets.com and https://www.biggerpockets.com/blog/on-the-market-248

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Are We in a Recession? Aug 29, 2024

Show notes

Are we in a recession? A lot of people certainly think so. After a surprisingly accurate recession indicator went off weeks ago, more and more Americans have begun to believe that we’re already facing an economic downturn. The problem? We rarely know we’re in a recession until we’re out of one. So, how can we be sure we’re in a recession and not just seeing a boomerang effect from the hot post-pandemic economy?

For many Americans, it sure FEELS like a recession. Unemployment has gradually increased, the cost of living has risen significantly over the past few years, and men may be buying fewer pairs of underwear (that’s actually a recession indicator). So, if we are in a recession, what should real estate investors do now to prepare so they don’t get the rug pulled on them before it’s too late? Do you sit tight or start contemplating selling properties?

Dave, Henry, and Kathy all share what they’d do in a recession, the not-so-obvious signs of a recession (or a recession in your specific industry), and whether or not they believe we’ll be in a recession over the next year. If the worst has yet to come, you’ll be able to spot the signs of a coming recession after this episode.

In This Episode We Cover

Whether or not we’re in a recession right now (and signs of one)

The one recession indicator going off that’s pointing to an economic downturn

Signs that we’re already in a recession and what we would do during one

How to deleverage yourself from riskier properties if the economy starts to slow

Whether or not a recession is still in the cards over the next year

Why it may be time to start saving once your husband/brother/nephew stops wearing new underwear

And So Much More!

Links from the Show

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