On The Market

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Housing Market Loses Steam, “National Buyer’s Market” Likely in 2026 Oct 14, 2025

Show notes

The market is sending mixed signals, so what does that mean for buyers and sellers right now? Prices are cooling toward neutral, new listings are finally creeping up, pending sales just slipped, and days on market are the longest since 2019. We sort through the latest data so you can read your local market with clear eyes.

A government shutdown is already touching housing. With the National Flood Insurance Program paused, some coastal and riverine deals are stalling as buyers struggle to bind coverage. We explain one potential workaround by assigning an existing policy, plus how many closings could be delayed if the lapse drags on.

Zooming out, we track fresh signs of consumer strain. Subprime auto delinquencies are at a record, average car payments now top 750 dollars a month, and sentiment has split sharply between households with big stock portfolios and those without. Several states are flirting with recession risk, which could tug mortgage rates lower, while sticky inflation could keep them pinned.

In This Episode We Cover

Cooling home prices, rising days on market, and what a near-flat Case-Shiller trend means for offers and list strategy

The shutdown’s housing ripple effects, including the flood insurance lapse and an assignment tactic that may keep deals alive

Why pending sales dipped even as new listings rose, and how to negotiate in a thinner buyer pool

Auto loan stress, four-figure car payments, and what these budget pressures mean for future housing demand

A tale of two consumers, plus a state-by-state look at recession risk and how that feeds into mortgage rates

Action steps for buyers, sellers, and investors in a market that is cooling, not crashing

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Housing Market Update: The Crash Bros are Wrong (Again!) Oct 09, 2025

Show notes

We can definitively say it now: the buyer’s market is here.

The housing market is cooling down, but the deals are heating up as a “mild” correction slows down hot markets and gives buyers even more power in cold ones. With it comes buying opportunities—ones that real estate investors have been starved of over the past few years. You can negotiate for more, offer less, and lock in a lower mortgage rate than last year.

The question is: will this correction turn into a full-blown housing crash? Dave’s giving you his honest (and data-backed) opinion in this September 2025 housing market update!

Mortgage delinquencies are rising rapidly in one subset of the market, the crash-bro clickbaiters say it’s a sign of a coming housing apocalypse—are they finally right about something? One thing is certain: a few housing markets across the US are in danger of slipping into an even more oversupplied market. But, with new data showing that sellers are quitting and walking away, will this reverse the worrying trend?

Stick around, we’ve got your housing market update without the hype.

In This Episode We Cover

The “mild” housing market correction: what it means and whether it’ll become a crash

Updated home price predictions and how much prices will rise/fall by the end of the year

Signs that you can start confidently bidding under asking price (but by how much?)

Why inventory is beginning to reverse (have sellers finally had enough?)

Mortgage delinquencies are rising: who’s affected and could it lead to foreclosures?

What investors should do now to prepare to buy discounted deals (be patient!)

And So Much More!

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BiggerPockets Real Estate 118 - Data Says It’s a Buyer’s Market: Here’s Where the Most Opportunity Is

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New Tariffs Aimed Directly at Real Estate Investors (Who They’ll Affect) Oct 07, 2025

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What are the repercussions of October 1st on the housing market? Dive into the recent shifts that may impact real estate investing and the broader housing market landscape. With the imposition of new tariffs on construction materials, stirring concerns about rising costs, alongside a federal government shutdown complicating the economic outlook, how will these factors play out in the current market scene? Explore the nuances of how these events intersect with flood insurance policy lapses and the phasing out of COVID-era FHA loan modifications. Each of these elements could influence mortgage rates and housing affordability, shaping investor strategies moving forward.

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One of the Best Types of Rentals Just Got Cheaper Oct 02, 2025

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Is the new construction market the golden ticket for real estate investors in 2025? With newly built homes now cheaper than existing ones, thanks to regional pricing differences, builders' incentives, and a desire to move inventory quickly, this could be an unexpected opportunity for savvy investors. In this episode, Dave Meyer explores why new construction is suddenly appealing, how mortgage rates and home prices are shaping this trend, and what investors need to consider when diving into this market. Are you ready to explore the potential in this unique turn of events in the housing market?

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This Small Group is Driving the Entire Economy (and They’re About to Stop) Sep 30, 2025

Show notes

Is a recession really coming, or is this the new normal for the housing market? Dave Meyer and J Scott unpack how post-2008 shifts, record debt and money printing, tariffs, and AI are changing the rules, then connect inflation and the labor market to mortgage rates and interest rates so you can gauge what moves them next. You will get a risk-off playbook for today’s deals, including conservative underwriting, assuming flatter rents and higher vacancy, buying at today’s rates, and favoring fixed-rate debt, plus why single-family housing prices are usually resilient outside of severe shocks. Their housing market prediction and forecast: expect mostly stable home prices with modest moves while mortgage rates hover near current levels, with bigger swings only if jobs crack hard or inflation reaccelerates.

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Rates Reverse: Why More Fed Cuts WON’T Get Us Below 6% Sep 25, 2025

Show notes

Fed cut rates for the first time in nine months, yet mortgage rates climbed again, so Dave breaks down why and what happens next for the housing market. He explains that the Fed funds rate mainly moves short-term interest rates, while long-term lending tracks the 10-year Treasury and risk spreads, with inflation risk keeping mortgage rates stubborn. His housing market prediction and forecast: expect mortgage rates to hover in the low to mid sixes through 2025, meaning tight affordability and mostly stable home prices, while commercial real estate could benefit more due to shorter-term debt structures. Takeaways for investors include underwriting deals at today’s rates, tracking inflation and labor data, and preparing for steady transaction gains rather than a rapid drop in interest rates or a surge in housing prices.

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Fed Cuts Rates, Mortgage Applications Jump 30% Overnight Sep 23, 2025

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Fed rate drop, refinance rush, and a land price reset: what does it mean for the housing market now. Henry Washington, Kathy, and James explain why refinance applications jumped roughly 30 percent after 30-year mortgage rates slipped near 6.39 percent, how today’s ARMs actually work, and why locking a refi now can beat waiting for future interest rates to fall. They outline a practical housing market prediction and forecast, expecting more transactions rather than a surge in home prices or housing prices, plus timing tips for listing into the spring when buyer activity historically rises. You will also get a reality check on the “great wealth transfer” and reverse mortgages, along with a land strategy playbook for a potential price decline, from targeting big-lot houses and infill splits to using seller financing to create equity and cash flow.

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Rising Unemployment Could Spill Into Real Estate (But By How Much?) Sep 18, 2025

Show notes

Is the labor market finally cracking, and what does that mean for the housing market? Dave Meyer distills the latest BLS and ADP payrolls, JOLTS, and unemployment data, from August’s 22,000 nonfarm payroll gain and a 4.3% jobless rate to a 900,000 downward revision and a spike in initial claims, to show a clear cooling trend. He explains why a softer labor market raises the odds of Fed cuts yet inflation keeps pressure on interest rates, so mortgage rates may ease only modestly, boosting transaction volume more than home prices or housing prices. You will hear practical plays for real estate investors, including watching local job numbers, prioritizing tenant retention and collections, and considering refinances if you hold 7 to 8 percent loans, plus how markets like Las Vegas and San Francisco may diverge. Dave’s housing market prediction and forecast: a soft but functioning market with cautious upside, where housing prices stabilize and conservative underwriting wins until clearer trends emerge.

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New Mortgage Monitor Report: Sellers “Pull Back,” Will Rate Cuts Change That? Sep 16, 2025

Show notes

Is this a housing market correction or a crash? Dave Meyer and ICE’s Andy Walden unpack the Mortgage Monitor: nominal home prices are up about 1.1% year over year, but real housing prices are negative; sellers are stepping back, inventory gains are cooling, and demand still tracks mortgage rates and interest rates, which points to a soft but functioning housing market. You’ll hear the regional story in Denver, Florida, and Texas, why FHA delinquencies are inching up while 2020 to 2021 loans perform well, and how soaring property insurance is squeezing affordability and debt to income ratios. Plus, a housing market prediction/forecast: if mortgage rates land in the low sixes (around 6.25% by year end), expect firmer home prices rather than a COVID era surge.

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