Odd Lots

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Jim Grant Sees an Era of Higher Rates That Could Last For Years Jun 05, 2023

Show notes

If you think interest rates seem high right now, you might be operating with too short of a perspective. For a longer-term perspective, you'd want to talk to someone like Jim Grant. On this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, the founder and editor of Grant's Interest Rate Observer and a long-time financial commentator talks to us about why we're at the beginning of a longer-term trend of higher rates that could last decades. He argues that investors will struggle to shake off years of "buy the dip" behavior, a ZIRP mentality, and a misplaced faith in the Federal Reserve. We also discuss what it means for market behavior today.

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Counterfeiting Scandals Keep Slamming the Commodities Market Jun 01, 2023

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Earlier this year, it emerged that the London Metals Exchange had been holding a bunch of bags filled with stones instead of the nickel needed to back trades for major commodities players, including Trafigura. Before that, commodities trader Mercuria was given painted rocks instead of the copper it was supposed to take delivery of. In short, the commodities world is no stranger to fraud. But what is it about the business of trading, moving and storing commodities that makes it so susceptible to scandal? In this episode, we speak to repeat Odd Lots guests and commodities collateral specialists Mercury Group CEO Anton Posner and President Margo Brock, about some recent episodes of counterfeiting in commodities world, why they seem to keep happening, and what could be done to prevent further instances from occurring.

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This Is How We'll Know If the CHIPS Act Is Working May 29, 2023

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The US government is spending billions of dollars to build out state-of-the-art domestic semiconductor manufacturing capacity. But spending money is no guarantee of success. In fact, there are already worries that the CHIPS Act passed by the Biden administration isn't succeeding, due to various roadblocks, speedbumps and unforced errors. So what are the odds that it will pay off? And what should we be watching for as evidence of its efficacy? On this episode of the podcast, we spoke with Dan Wang, technology analyst at Gavekal Dragonomics and Adam Ozimek, chief economist at the Economic Innovation Group. This episode was recorded live at Decades, Adam's bowling alley in Lancaster, Pennsylvania, during the #EconTwitterIRL event in April.

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Slack Founder Stewart Butterfield on AI, Software, and the End of the Tech Boom May 25, 2023

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Stewart Butterfield has been at the forefront of two epochal turning points for tech. First, he was the co-founder of the photo sharing site Flickr, that was one of the defining brands of the so-called Web 2.0 and the world of user-generated content. Several years after that, he co-founded Slack, one of the big winners of the software-as-a-service wars, changing how people work and how companies operate. Now we're at another turning point for the tech industry. Layoffs have occurred across the space and AI is putting traditional business models into doubt. On this episode, we speak with Butterfield about his experiences and what he sees coming next for tech.

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On the Debt Ceiling, the White House Is Doing What It Said It Wouldn't Do May 24, 2023

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In 2011, then-Vice President Biden had a front row seat to a bruising debt ceiling standoff between President Barack Obama and House Speaker John Boehner. That fight arguably derailed the Obama presidency and the nascent economic recovery. After that experience, Biden and his team had insisted that this time they would not negotiate over a debt ceiling increase. Yet here we are, and the current administration is doing exactly that. According to the Treasury Department, we're just days away from the so called "X-date" (when a US default would occur) and both the White House and new House Speaker Kevin McCarthy have been debating what conditions a hike in the debt ceiling should come with. So how did they get into this situation? And what were the other options? On this episode we speak with Skanda Amarnath, executive director of Employ America, and Arnab Datta, senior counsel of Employ America, about the current state of play and how it might have been avoided.

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What Needs to Happen for the Renminbi to Seriously Compete With the Dollar May 22, 2023

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There's a lot of discussion these days about de-dollarization and whether the US dollar will lose its standing as the world's sole reserve currency. Generally, people seem open to the idea, but they also don't see many good alternatives out there. The renminbi is the obvious candidate to take share away from the dollar, given the size of the Chinese economy and China's role in global trade. But for various reasons, the currency isn't suited to be a global reserve currency. So what would it actually take to become one? And what would be the effects if it started to play a major role in global trade? On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Karthik Sankaran, a longtime FX veteran, about what China would have to do if it really has global aspirations for its currency, and why a more multipolar FX landscape might be good for world financial stability.

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We're In the Midst of Trucking Bloodbath 2.0 May 19, 2023

Show notes

A couple of years ago, it was an amazing time to have a truck or be a trucker. The goods economy was absolutely booming. Prices were booming. Supply chains were broken. Everyone wanted access to more freight. Fast forward to spring 2023 and the situation couldn't be more different. Prices have collapsed and the environment is now as bad for carriers as it was during 2019, which was a horrible year for the industry. In fact, conditions now might even be as bad as they were during the Great Recession. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Craig Fuller, the founder and CEO of FreightWaves, and Rachel Premack, editorial director for FreightWaves, about the state of trucking, what the market says about the broader economy, and what it will take to turn the industry around.

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CFTC Chair Rostin Behnam on the Fight to Regulate Crypto May 18, 2023

Show notes

We're still in the middle of a "crypto winter" with the price of coins well off their highs from back in 2021. But debates over how to regulate them are heating up, with significant disagreements among US politicians and agency chiefs. At the recent ISDA Annual General Meeting, we sat down with CFTC Chief Rostin Behnam to talk about his view on crypto rules and more. Among the things we discussed are what constitutes a security or a commodity, market structure questions, new types of betting markets, and other matters currently facing the CFTC.

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The CME's Terry Duffy on the Big Risks He's Seeing Now May 15, 2023

Show notes

Terry Duffy is the chairman and CEO of CME Group, the world's biggest derivatives exchange and a trading behemoth whose name is synonymous with Chicago's financial industry. In this wide-ranging interview, Duffy talks about the big risks in the market he's seeing right now and how the CME is preparing for them. He discusses everything from complaints over a lack of liquidity in Treasury futures, to the impact of the debt ceiling on CME's risk management, interest rate hedging trends in the aftermath of the recent banking crisis, and the exchange's expanding suite of crypto offerings. We also talk about how Duffy is viewing the CME's future in Chicago and, finally, his take on the onion futures debate.

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Introducing - Spellcaster: The Fall of Sam Bankman-Fried May 12, 2023

Show notes

Coming soon: When nerdy gamer Sam Bankman-Fried rocketed to fame as the world’s richest 29-year-old, he pledged to donate his billions to good causes. But then his crypto exchange FTX collapsed Billions of dollars were missing, and Sam was in handcuffs. Those who knew him were left wondering — who was Sam really? A well-meaning billionaire who made a mistake? Or a calculating con man? From Wondery and Bloomberg, the makers of The Shrink Next Door, comes a new story of incredible wealth, betrayal and what happens when “doing good” goes really really bad. Learn more here: https://podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/spellcaster-the-fall-of-sam-bankman-fried/id1685258534

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