Odd Lots

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Latest Episodes:

Are We About to See the Shortest Housing Cycle Ever? Jul 24, 2023

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Last year, as the Federal Reserve hiked rates to the highest levels in decades, there were lots of warnings about an imminent collapse in the US housing market. But home prices have only dipped slightly since then and now they're even recovering, stacking up three consecutive month-on-month gains. Not many people expected the most interest rate-sensitive portion of the economy to be this resilient. So what happened? Morgan Stanley housing strategist James Egan was one of few who was early to forecast that home prices would prove resilient, even as the cost of mortgages went up. In this episode, he walks us through how he sees the housing market now and what it would actually take for home prices to come down.

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How to Build the Ultimate GPU Cloud to Power AI Jul 20, 2023

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Artificial Intelligence is all the rage right now and most of the investor excitement has so far been focused on the companies providing the hardware and computing power to actually run this new technology. So how does it all work and what does it actually take to run these complex models? On this episode, we speak with Brannin McBee, co-founder of CoreWeave, which provides cloud computing services based on GPUs, the type of chips pioneered by Nvidia and which have now become immensely popular for generative AI. He walks us through the infrastructure involved in powering AI, how difficult it is to get chips right now, who has them, and how the landscape might change in the future.

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Josh Wolfe on Where Investors Will Make Money in AI Jul 17, 2023

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We're in the midst of an AI mania of sorts. In public markets, investors are placing bets on the companies perceived as being the winners of this new wave of computing. Companies that aren't even in "tech" are touting their AI bonafides. And of course, in private markets, every venture capitalist suddenly seems to be pivoting to AI in some way or another. But who will actually win? Will it be the big incumbents? Can those incumbents be disrupted? Will it be the companies who have access to unique datasets? Or will it be whoever has the most computing power? On this episode, we speak with Josh Wolfe, co-founder of Lux Capital, who has been investing in the space for several years, long before it was trendy. He talks about where he's placing his bets and how he's thinking about identifying winners.

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Understanding the Real Fight Over Water in Arizona Jul 14, 2023

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Arizona recently announced new constraints on housing development in the areas around Phoenix. At issue is water rights and scarcity, which have been a challenge for the US Southwest for as long as people have been living there. That being said, the region is currently in the midst of a 25-year megadrought and when you combine that with booming growth, difficult choices may have to be made. But how do water rights get divided? Who holds them? How much is water worth to the housing developers, farmers and semiconductor manufacturers that have flocked to the state? To learn more, we speak with Kathryn Sorensen, director of research at the Kyl Center for Water Policy at the Morrison Institute for Public Policy at Arizona State University. We discuss both current and past water management practices in the state.

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An Arizona Farmer on How to Grow Alfalfa in the Middle of the Desert Jul 13, 2023

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Due to a combination of drought, climate change and booming growth, Arizona is facing looming water scarcity. But for all the sprawl and population increase, the overwhelming amount of water used in the state is not consumed by residences, but rather farmers. So naturally, many argue that we should be doing less agriculture in the desert and move the production of cotton, alfalfa and various vegetables towards places with more rain. On this episode, we speak with Trevor Bales, the proprietor of Bales Hay Farm & Ranch in Arizona about his family’s history in the state and why he thinks this dry desert is a great place to grow alfalfa.

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Richard Koo on China's Risk of 'Japanification' Jul 10, 2023

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Richard Koo literally wrote the book on balance sheet recessions, or the idea that large levels of debt can weigh on future growth for years and even decades to come. Now, the Nomura Research Institute chief economist sees a similar risk emerging in China. The country has been struggling with vast levels of debt and slowing economic growth in the wake of the Covid-19 pandemic. In this episode, Koo discusses the signs he sees that a balance sheet recession is already underway as China's companies shy away from borrowing more money for future investment. He also suggests some ideas for just what China's authorities should do about it.

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What It Really Takes to Convert an Office Building Into Apartments Jul 06, 2023

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Big cities like New York have two real estate problems. Housing is scarce and office buildings are empty (or at least under-utilized.) So there would seem to be an obvious solution: turn the offices into homes. And indeed there has been a lot of talk lately about "office-to-resi" conversions. But it's very hard, for a wide variety of reasons. Zoning, financing, and then, of course, the operational aspects of the construction all need to be in place. So what does it take? On this episode, we speak with Joey Chilelli, managing director at the Vanbarton Group, a firm that's been involved with these projects for a decade and long before the pandemic upended both real estate markets. We discuss the challenges involved in actually pulling off these complex projects.

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Jared Bernstein on the Next Stage of Bidenomics Jul 04, 2023

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President Biden recently made it clear that what we're seeing play out in the economy now is the result of "Bidenomics." The current expansion has defied the constant predictions of economic gloom. Every other day, it seems, some firm announces a new battery plant or semiconductor facility for the United States as a result of incentives from either the CHIPS Act or the Inflation Reduction Act. So what's next? How can we be confident the plants will be productive? And what is the Bidenomics view of global trade? To learn more, we speak with Jared Bernstein, the head of the White House Council of Economic Advisors. We discuss the key pillars of the White House economic agenda, and how these ambitious policy measures are being implemented.

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Bridgewater's Greg Jensen on AI, Inflation and What Markets Are Getting Wrong Jul 03, 2023

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Every industry is trying to figure out just how AI or Large Language Models can be used to do business. But Bridgewater Associates, the world's largest hedge fund, has already been at it for a long time. For years, it has explored AI and adjacent technologies in order to analyze data, test theories, develop novel investment strategies and help its employees make better decisions. But how does it actually use the tech in practice? And what's next going forward? On this episode, we speak with co-CIO Greg Jensen about both the possibilities and limitations of these advances. We also discuss markets and macro, and why he believes that investors are still too optimistic about the Federal Reserve's ability to get inflation back to target.

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Zoltan Pozsar on His Next Big Move and the Coming Monetary Divorce Jun 30, 2023

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Zoltan Pozsar has built a reputation for covering the intricacies of money markets. For the past eight years, he published those insights as a strategist at Credit Suisse. But in this episode of the Odd Lots podcast, Pozsar reveals his next career move following his departure from the Swiss bank earlier this year. He also gives us an update on his Bretton Woods III thesis, or the idea that the global financial system is going through a "monetary divorce" from US dollar hegemony and becoming more multi-polar. He also gives us his take on the recent banking crisis and what it means for global funding markets going forward.

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