Odd Lots

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How a Trade War With China Could Become a Hot War Jul 26, 2025

Show notes

Tension between the US and China has been building for some time. But so far this has been limited to issues of trade. The US has imposed tariffs on China. It's imposed restrictions on technology exports. In turn, China has imposed some of its own tariffs, and also limited the export of things like rare earth metals. But historically speaking, many hot wars have their roots in some kind of trade-related tensions between nations. So the risk exists that a trade war one day becomes a hot war. So how does this happen, and how can it be avoided? On this episode, we speak with Dale Copeland, a professor of international relations at the University of Virginia. He discusses his theories of trade, and we discuss his most recent book, A World Safe for Commerce: American Foreign Policy From the Revolution to the Rise of China, which specifically discusses the prospect for an outright US-China confrontation.

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What 300 Years of Firewood Prices Say About the Economy Jul 25, 2025

Show notes

Today, the cost of energy — things like electricity, or gas, or heating oil — is considered an essential piece of economic data. But it turns out that for much of America's history, we've been overlooking a crucial economic figure: the cost of firewood. For decades, firewood was the dominant energy source powering the US economy. And yet there aren't really any official statistics about firewood prices. After all, how would you even go about putting a price tag on something that's growing in a lot of people's backyards? On this episode, we speak with Nicholas Muller, a Carnegie Mellon University economist and author of the new paper, "Firewood in the American Economy: 1700 to 2010," which attempts to fill in this crucial gap in our economic data. We talk about how Nicholas went about finding 300-year-old firewood prices, and what the new data series can tell us about the development of the US economy and the relationship between growth and energy.
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How to Prepare for a Post-Dollar World with Inigo Fraser Jenkins Jul 24, 2025

Show notes

People talk all the time about the potential for huge turning points in history. And they've been talking about the possibility of the US losing its dominant position in the international financial order for some time. So far it hasn't really happened, but there are plenty of people who think that the Trump's focus on tariffs and higher deficits could mark a sea change in the appetite for dollar assets. In this episode we speak with Inigo Fraser Jenkins, strategist at Alliance Bernstein, about some of the big changes that are altering the investment landscape including: higher debt loads across the world, the rise of AI, de-globalization, demographics, and more. As he points out, the difference right now is that we're not just talking about one possible regime change for investors, but a long list of them. Inigo talks about how these shifts might play out and what investors can do to prepare for them.
Read "The End of US Exceptionalism?" by Inigo Fraser Jenkins
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The NYC Landlords Most Worried About Zohran Mamdani Jul 21, 2025

Show notes

Probably the most controversial proposal from New York City Democratic mayoral nominee Zohran Mamdani is his promise to freeze the rent on a substantial chunk of rent-stabilized units in the city. There are concerns that this will cause a major downshift in housing development and that landlords that are heavily exposed to rent-stabilized units will be driven deeper into distress. But then separately there are major real estate owners who may be threatened by other aspects of Mamdani's real estate vision. For example, he has promised to, in some instances, expedite approvals for new buildings, which could take away the competitive edge from major building owners that know best how to work the approval process. But there are also players in the real estate industry who are excited about new opportunities. If housing production does, in fact, slow down, that could mean higher rent on market-rate units. And if Mamdani significantly expands the supply of free childcare in the city, then that could present an opportunity for some owners of commercial real estate. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with past guest Ben Carlos Thypin, a NYC landlord himself, as well as the founder of the analytics firm Quantierra. He gives us the overall lay of the land on how various players in the real estate industry are preparing for Mamdani's possible victory.
Read More: Mayor Eric Adams on the Future of New York City
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Why the Damage to Fed Independence May Have Already Been Done Jul 19, 2025

Show notes

There’s a long history of US presidents putting pressure on the Federal Reserve to lower interest rates, but the techniques have often been subtle or quiet in some way. Under President Trump, attacks on the Fed have risen to a whole new level. And it’s not just Trump that’s called on Chair Jerome Powell to cut rates. Other members of his administration (along with allies in Congress) have been hammering him both on policy and also topics unrelated to monetary policy, such as the cost of renovating the Federal Reserve building in Washington. Investors are taking seriously the prospect that Trump will find a way or a reason to remove Powell before the end of his term next year. And regardless of when Powell is replaced, there’s a widespread anticipation that the next Fed chair will be someone more closely resembling a Trump loyalist. So do we still have an independent Fed at this point? On this episode, we speak with University of Texas-Austin economics professor Carola Binder about why central bank independence is so cherished by economists, why mere criticism of the Fed could be inflationary, and whether Fed independence has been permanently damaged.
Read More:
Odd Lots Newsletter: Central Bank Independence Is a Spectrum
What Happened the Last Time a Fed Chief Was Bounced
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Mayor Eric Adams on the Future of New York City Jul 18, 2025

Show notes

Incumbent NYC Mayor Eric Adams didn't run in the Democratic primary. But he'll be on the ballot in November, running as an independent against Zohran Mamdani and probably a couple of other candidates as well. So what is his vision for addressing affordability? What can the Mayor do about crime, trash, and other quality of life issues. On this episode, we're joined by Eric Adams to talk about the city's future and his plan for securing re-election.

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What AI Is Already Doing to the Legal Industry Jul 17, 2025

Show notes

If there's one thing that lawyers do a lot of, it's spending a prodigious number of hours going through documents. And they're often very well compensated for this work. So if there's one area where AI can obviously be highly disruptive, it's law. Documents that used to take hours to scan or format might be dealt with instantly. Finding relevant prior case law is becoming much faster, thanks to today's most advanced models. On this episode, we speak with Joel Wertheimer of Wertheimer Fleder LLP, a civil rights law firm in New York. We discuss the actual economics of being a lawyer, how it's changing, the effect that the technology will have on the distribution of income going forward, and what the entire profession could look like years into the future.
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Why US Banks Are Trying to Turn Themselves Into Super Apps Jul 14, 2025

Show notes

Rohit Chopra is a former director of the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau, which was created in the aftermath of the 2008 financial crisis. In this episode, we speak with him about the current status of the CFPB under the Trump administration, and Rohit's experience while working at the bureau, including decisions made by regulators during the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and others. Rohit frames his experience as one where he was often dealing with the convergence of old-fashioned banking with lightning-fast technological development. In this context, we also talk about stablecoins (which Rohit says aren't really "crypto," per se), why US banks are now trying to turn themselves into "super apps," and the massive growth of "Buy Now, Pay Later" platforms.

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What NYC's Most Powerful CEOs Think About Zohran Mamdani Jul 11, 2025

Show notes

When socialist candidate Zohran Mamdani won the Democratic party's nomination for NYC mayor, top business leaders experienced a bout of hysteria. That's according to Kathy Wylde, the president and CEO of the non-profit organization the Partnership for New York City. Founded in 1979, the organization assembles the CEOs of some of the biggest employers in New York City in order to work on city issues. Wylde herself is often characterized as one of the ultimate NYC power brokers. In fact, she's been actively facilitating phone calls and meetings between Mamdani and the CEOs (most of whom backed Cuomo in the primary) who are anxious about what a socialist mayor would mean for the city. We talked to her about what they're most concerned about, what they want to see from Mamdani (if he wins), what could push businesses and people to move out of the city, and what they think about him after they talk.

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How a Geopolitical Analyst Predicts the Outcome of War Jul 10, 2025

Show notes

For investors, geopolitical risks are always lurking as a factor that could upend trades for obvious reasons. When war breaks out, it's crucial to have some kind of understanding of what it will mean for various markets (such as oil or grain) and how long the conflict can persist. But is there any way to analyze these things scientifically? Many people are paid by investors to try to do exactly this. On this episode, we speak with Andrew Bishop, the global head of policy research at Signum Global, about what he does, and how he attempts to forecast the future. We use the recent conflict between Israel and Iran (as well as other sources of global tension) to get a better understanding of how he goes about forecasting, how investors use his research, and what he sees going forward.

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