Odd Lots

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Adam Posen on a Surreal Jackson Hole in a Post-American World Aug 26, 2025

Show notes

The annual Jackson Hole symposium is, formally speaking, an academic conference. Economists and central bankers gather to discuss the most important, cutting edge ideas in monetary policy. But there was certainly a different feel this year because of the relentless attacks on Fed Chairman Jerome Powell coming from President Trump. The whole premise of central bank independence is becoming a live question again. And without central bank independence, almost all of the more academic discussions feel like a waste of time. That makes for a surreal environment. On this episode of the podcast, we speak with Adam Posen, a former member of the BoE's Monetary Policy Committee, who now serves as President of the Peterson Institute for International Economics. He's the author of a recent Foreign Affairs article titled, "The New Economic Geography: Who Profits in a Post-American World." We talk about the shifting tectonic plates occurring domestically and internationally, what he sees as the folly of Trump's approach to trade and international relations, and how that intersects with the discourse among Central Bankers.

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Tom Barkin on Why Central Banking Is on Hard Mode Now Aug 25, 2025

Show notes

According to Richmond Federal Reserve Bank President Tom Barkin, much of the time central banking is straightforward. Sometimes it's clear that rate cuts are needed. Sometimes it's clear that rate hikes are needed. Other times everything is going great, and central bankers don't have much to worry about. Right now though, things are not straightforward. There are signs of labor market softening. But also there are reasons to be concerned that inflation pressure is building yet again. In times like this, the playbook is less obvious. On this episode, recorded at the Jackson Hole Economic
Symposium, Barkin walks us through how he's thinking about the economy right now.

More: Fed’s Jackson Hole Points to a Hard Road Ahead for Powell

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Why Austan Goolsbee Is Still Concerned About Inflation Aug 23, 2025

Show notes

Chicago Fed President Austan Goolsbee is still more concerned about the inflation side of the Fed's mandate than he is about the employment side. This is noteworthy because in general markets are expecting rate cuts to come soon, and also Chairman Jerome Powell, speaking in Jackson Hole, put more weight on risks to the labor market. In this episode recorded at the conference, Goolsbee explains why he has some concerns about whether the inflation embers have been fully stamped out (he's particularly concerned by what he's seeing in the services realm), and why he has relatively more confidence that the labor market is in good shape.

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Lots More on What Just Happened With the Fed at Jackson Hole Aug 22, 2025

Show notes

We're still at the Kansas City Federal Reserve Bank's annual economic symposium in Jackson Hole, where we just heard Fed Chair Jerome Powell's big speech. The speech -- which opened the door to a September rate cut -- proved to be a dovish surprise to the market and stocks are now soaring because of it. But why did Powell decide to focus on what he sees as "downside" risks to the labor market as opposed to "upside" risks to inflation? On this episode, we speak to Bloomberg TV's Michael McKee, who's been to dozens of Jackson Hole meetings since the late 1990s. We talk with him about the speech, how Jackson Hole has changed over time, and who's in the running to replace Powell next year.

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Kansas City's Fed President on What Everyone Will Be Talking About at Jackson Hole Aug 21, 2025

Show notes

It's Jackson Hole time again, when the most prominent minds in monetary policy meet in an idyllic Wyoming setting for the Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City's annual symposium on monetary policy. For markets, the main event tends to be the speech from the Fed Chairman. But beyond that, there's always a theme that central bankers and academics are tasked to discuss. So to raise the curtain for this year's event, we spoke with none other than Jeffrey Schmid, the president and CEO of the Kansas City Fed. We talked about the official theme of this year's conference, the growing political pressure on the Fed itself, and how he thinks about monetary policy at a time when markets are at record highs, the unemployment rate is low, and inflation continues to come in above target.

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This Is What Happens When a Startup Dies Aug 20, 2025

Show notes

You always hear about startup exits. Big acquisitions. Big IPOs. But of course this isn’t the fate for most new ventures. Many of them die outright, without any kind of “exit” at all for shareholders. So how do you wind down a company, and sell off the scraps? How do you actually pull the plug? David Johnson of Resolution Financial Advisors specializes in exactly that. Because the formal bankruptcy process is very expensive, many companies look for some way to salvage value by doing an asset fire sale. David tells us how the process works, and also goes through a bunch of fun examples of odd transactions, such as the time he had to find a buyer for some actual human skulls that were in the office of a dying startup.

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Lessons From A Sovereign Wealth Fund in the United States (Correct) Aug 18, 2025

Show notes

President Trump and others have talked about the idea of the US having a Sovereign Wealth Fund, a la the UAE or Singapore. It feels like a longshot, but as it turns out, there are actually several Sovereign Wealth Funds in the United States, one of which is the Alaska Permanent Fund. The fund was established in the 1970s to manage the state’s booming oil fortune, and ensure that the boom benefitted the residents of the state for years into the future. Today the fund manages over $80 billion, contributing a substantial portion each year to Alaska’s state budget, including an annual check paid directly to almost all residents of the state. On this episode, we speak with the fund’s CEO Deven Mitchell and CIO Marcus Frampton about how the fund operates, its relationship with the government of Alaska, and how it’s investing its money in order to fulfill its purpose long into the future. We also discuss what lessons from the APF could apply to any similar project done at a national level.

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(Corrects Alaska Permanent Fund as the only Sovereign Wealth Fund in the US in headline and description)

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Housing Is a Problem Even in a State With Declining Population Aug 16, 2025

Show notes

You can kind of understand why it's so hard to build housing in New York City. There isn't much available land. It's already pretty built up. And then, add in the fact that so many people want to live in New York, and you can understand why it's so expensive. But what's the deal with Alaska? There seems to be plenty of land. And population has actually been in a a general state of decline. And yet, housing remains strained, with many of the same affordability problems seen elsewhere in the country. So what are the specific challenging dynamics to be overcome? On this episode, we speak with Jimmy Ord, Daniel Delfino, and Stacy Barnes of the Alaska Housing Finance Corporation to understand the challenges they face, and the work they do to ease the strain. We get into both the specific logistical, political, and financial tools available to reduce pressure.

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Lots More With Skanda Amarnath on This Moment in Macro Aug 15, 2025

Show notes

Right now, you could make a good argument that inflation is still too hot, and that with the stock market booming, and the unemployment rate at 4.2%, that it's crazy to think about cutting rates. You could also argue that much of the economy is stalling, that the pace of job growth has slowed dramatically, and that with housing in the tank, we need lower rates. Then on top of this situation, layer in the fact that we have this weird bifurcated economy, with the AI sector growing like gangbusters. And then add onto that the attacks on the independence of the Federal Reserve coming from the Trump administration. And furthermore, trade policy is still a moving target. To make sense of this complicated time — and to look ahead to next week's Jackson Hole conference — we speak with Skanda Amarnath, the executive director of Employ America.

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The Investors Who Think Hazelnuts Will Be the Next Pistachios Aug 14, 2025

Show notes

We're in an age where shocks can occur on both the supply side and the demand side. On the supply side, the causes are well known. Pandemics, trade wars, and climate disruption have exposed the frailty of supply chains in goods too numerous to list. On the demand side, the tendency for certain goods to suddenly go "viral" among consumers can be impossible to predict. Take Dubai chocolate. The craze for pistachio-filled candy came out of nowhere, in part thanks to social media. Our guests on this episode are super bullish on a different nut. Burton Flynn and Ivan Nechunaev are managing partners at Terra Nova Capital Advisors, where they look for unusual investments in frontier markets all around the world. On this episode, they tell us about their bull case for hazelnuts, including where they're grown, the economics of hazelnut agriculture, and the limited ways of playing this popular nut.

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