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Voodoo polling? Predicting the US election Nov 12, 2012

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This week Ruth Alexander looks at the other winner the US elections. Blogger and pioneer of aggregated polling, Nate Silver, predicted the outcome of the vote in every state one better than 2008. Others who have tried similar methods have also done well. Is this the dawn of a new era of poll prediction or just luck? Also, what effect did Hurricane Sandy have on death rates in places it hit and how did they differ from a normal day.

Is America’s conviction rate really 99.5%? Nov 05, 2012

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Conrad Black has claimed that 99.5% of prosecution cases in America end up in convictions. Is it really this high? We try to estimate how this compares to the number of convictions in other parts of the world.

Predicting L'Aquila Earthquake: is it right to blame the scientists? Oct 29, 2012

Show notes

This week six scientists and one ex-government official were sentenced to prison for multiple manslaughter following the L’Aquila earthquake in Italy. Part of the case against them was the falsely reassuring comments they made before the earthquake struck. Will this deter scientists from giving advice in the future?

Life-saving economics Oct 22, 2012

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Professor Al Roth tells Tim Harford about the work for which he has just been awarded the 2012 Nobel Memorial Prize in Economic Sciences.

Predicting the global population Oct 15, 2012

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Predicting the global population: does anyone really know what’s going to happen?

Predicting the Presidency Oct 08, 2012

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Nate Silver tells us who will win the 2012 US election - and how he knows.

Plenty more fish in the sea? Oct 01, 2012

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Only 100 cod are left in the North Sea according to newspapers. Is this the most wrong headline in More or Less history?

Factchecking America Sep 24, 2012

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US Presidential Election factchecked. Is Mitt Romney right to say that 47% of Americans pay no tax? And how many jobs has President Obama really created?

Investigating crime statistics Sep 17, 2012

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Ruth Alexander investigates Sweden's high rape rate, and finds out which countries are the surprise leaders of the world kidnap league. Plus, who went home from the London 2012 Games with more medals – Olympians or Paralympians? This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service

Where are the Paralympics Medals? Sep 10, 2012

Show notes

Why did the USA top the gold medals league in the Olympics, but not the Paralympics? Ruth Alexander examines the performance numbers of the London 2012 Paralympic Games and discovers which countries are punching above their weight, and which below. And Yan Wong tries to calculate how many opening bars are possible in music. This programme was first broadcast on the BBC World Service.

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