More or Less

Latest Episodes:

Fact-checking US gun crime statistics Dec 21, 2012

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Tim Harford investigates gun crime statistics in the US. Plus, why death is not always the one hard fact that’s hard to fudge; the average age of first-time buyers; whether chocolate makes you clever; the statistical paradox of road collisions caused by deer; and the maths of juggling. Producer Ruth Alexander

WS MoreOrLess: What is "rare"? Dec 17, 2012

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This week: What is ‘rare’? When we say something is rare what do we mean? Lightning strikes which typically kill three people a year in the UK are often described as rare but how do we square that with a condition like motor neurone disease which is also described as rare yet kills 1500 people a year in the UK. Also we speak to Nassim Taleb about his book Anti-fragile.

The Census and what does 'rare' mean? Dec 14, 2012

Show notes

Why was the estimate, in 2003, for Eastern Europeans coming to the UK so wrong? Which is better when communicating information words or numbers? Nassim Taleb explains anti-fragility And we'll debunk the oft quoted 'you're never more than 6ft from a rat'

World Service: Africa GDP & Royal twins Dec 10, 2012

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Where does Nigeria’s plan to revise its GDP leave our understanding of growth in Sub-saharan Africa? And what is the chance of the Duchess of Cambridge having twins given she has severe morning sickness.

Radio 4: Royal Twins & Autumn Statement Dec 07, 2012

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In light of the Royal pregnancy Tim Harford asks what severe morning sickness tells us about the chances of having twins. Yan Wong helps him look at the figures. We disentangle the Chancellor' Autumn Statement and ask: where is the economy really at? As Nigeria prepares to revise its GDP statistics with an expected jump of 40-60%, we ask how reliable are African GDP statistics? Another Daily Telegraph headline comes under scrutiny. And we return to our Lego tower and look at how Lego can be used to teach maths with Eugenia Cheng of Sheffiled University.

More or Less: How reliable is Kevin Pietersen? Dec 03, 2012

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Kevin Pietersen has been widely praised as one of the best England batsmen of the current era and possibly of all time. But in the first test match he only scored 19. So can England really not do without him? Also why is Zero an even number?

More or Less: Opinion polling, Kevin Pietersen, and stacking Lego Nov 30, 2012

Show notes

On More or Less this week Tim Harford looks at three polls carried out to gauge the public’s opinion on press regulation gave vastly different answers despite being carried out by the same polling company. Tim talks to Peter Kellner, President of online polling company YouGov. Would you send Kevin Pietersen out to bat if your life depended on him scoring a century? Have two thirds of millionaires really left the country as claimed by the Daily Telegraph this week? What percentage of drinks might be affected by the introduction of a minimum price for alcohol. And how high could you build a Lego tower before the bottom brick collapses? Ruth Alexander dons her safety goggles to find out?

Fergie Time Nov 26, 2012

Show notes

This is the first in the new series of the programme. There’s a well-established idea that Manchester United get more added time than every other Premier League team. More or Less looks at the numbers behind this so called ‘Fergie Time’. Do Manchester United get more injury time than other top teams when they’re drawing or losing?

Ash Die Back and Fergie Time Nov 23, 2012

Show notes

This is the first in the new series of the programme. Tim Harford has been busy felling some ash tree statistics. He asks whether the UK could lose 30% of our woodland trees and did the ash die back disease really kill 90% of ash trees in Denmark? Plus, there’s a well established idea that Manchester United get more added time than every other Premier League team. More or Less looks at the numbers behind this so called ‘Fergie Time’. Do Manchester United get more injury time than other top teams when they’re drawing or losing?

Brain Food and Bacteria Nov 19, 2012

Show notes

There's not an obvious link between chocolate and Nobel prizes, but this did not stop news outlets around the world reporting the amount of chocolate a country consumes influences the number of Nobel prizes they will win. In many cases the scientific study was reported without question or comment. Ruth Alexander asks what this story tells us about the way the media reports scientific studies, and why the correlation between the two might be so strong. Also – it's often said that chopping boards or dishcloths have many more bacteria than toilet seat but is this really true?

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