Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

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Invesco's Levitt: Significant policy tightening always ends 'in an accident' Mar 30, 2023

Show notes

Brian Levitt, global market strategist at Invesco, says the current troubles with the banking industry and the market's struggles with inflation are setting the stage for a new cycle, noting that if inflation comes down and the Fed backs away from its stance it typically will improve conditions for investors. Levitt notes that investors are wondering whether the current situation looks like the 1990s -- when a downturn represented a great opportunity -- or like the 2008 financial crisis, where recovery took much longer, noting that he doesn't see conditions looking like they will result in the protracted, painful downturn. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, plays the uptrend in cryptocurrency with his pick for the ETF of the Week, and Nancy Tengler, chief investment strategist at Laffer Tengler Wealth Management, talks about finding growth at a reasonable price -- and what constitutes 'reasonable' -- in the Money Life Market Call.www.invesco.com/us

Whitney Tilson: Grind it out, hold on and avoid 'the crazy nonsense' Mar 29, 2023

Show notes

Whitney Tilson, chief executive officer at Empire Financial Research, says that while headlines are driving investors to distraction, the stock market right now is neither too hot nor too cold. Other than regional banks, he says there's no blood in the streets, the market 'isn't screaming cheap or hugely overvalued either,' making this a time for investors to grind it out and work on their holding, rather than buying or selling. 'The key,' he says, 'is not in picking the next calamity, but avoiding the crazy nonsense.' Sarah Foster discusses her recent story on Bankrate.com on how inflation is damaging the finances of younger generations and how that has the potential to damage the economy as Gen Z and millennials adjust their spending and savings habits. And, in the Market Call, Kathy Boyle, president of Chapin Hill Advisors looks at the macro picture and talks about which exchange-traded funds can take advantage of the current opportunities.

Franklin Templeton's Dover: Time to be conservative, balanced Mar 28, 2023

Show notes

Steven Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton and head of the Franklin Templeton Institute, expects a modest recession where investors can benefit from riding it out with a greater exposure to fixed income and a more-balanced portfolio, but he also notes that there are plenty of worrisome wildcards that could impact the market and economy. Adam Turnquist, chief technical strategist at LPL Financial, says the market is going through 'a bottoming process,' but needs more confirmation that a new uptrend has developed before shifting from a current-defensive stance to something more aggressive; he is looking for better performance from growth stocks moving forward, noting that they typically thrive about six months after a rate-hike cycle peaks. Plus, in The Book Interview, author Liz Hoffman tells tales of pandemic perseverance and recovery as detailed in 'Crash Landing: The Inside Story of How the World's Biggest Companies Survived an Economy on the Brink.'

AAII's Rotblut: Persistent pessimism like never before Mar 27, 2023

Show notes

Charles Rotblut, editor of AAII Journal, says the last 15 months have shown a persistent lack of bullish sentiment, with roughly 20 of the 70 lowest readings ever for optimism in the American Association of Individual Investors sentiment survey, a weekly poll that dates back to 1987. Likewise, bearishness has been near record levels consistently. Rotblut notes that the survey did not show this kind of consistent high-pessimism/low-bullishness sentiment during the global financial crisis, the dot-com bust, the Gulf War and more. Also on the show, Mervin Jebaraj discusses the National Association for Business Economics study released today showing that more than 70 percent of economists believe the Federal Reserve will not be able to get headline inflation numbers to or below 4 percent this year. In The Danger Zone, David Trainer of New Constructs, singles out MGM Resorts International as the stock with the most overstated street estimates, and discusses how that is likely to translate into continued deeper declines, and Gary Bradshaw od the Hodges Funds talks about blue-chip stocks and growth stories in the current market during the Money Life Market Call.

Technical analyst McClellan: 'We're in for a long period of economic trouble' Mar 24, 2023

Show notes

Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, says that the market is just starting a whole lot of market pain that will continue into 2026 before reaching a real bottom and the start of another long-term buying opportunity. McClellan says there will be great trading opportunities within the downturn -- including the month of April -- but emphasized that the economy has a lot to digest before real recovery begins. Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, expects a recession to begin in the second or third quarter of 2023, but says the decline is likely to be shallow, extending for six to 12 months depending on how the Federal Reserve responds to it. For investors looking to deal with those issues, Steve O'Neill, from RiverNorth says in The NAVigator segment that municipal bond closed-end funds are 'in the 99th percentile of cheapness,' making them a good relative bargain for investors willing to ride out the current storm. And in the Market Call, Allen Bond, head of research at Jensen Investment Management, discusses high-quality businesses at reasonable prices.

BankRate's McBride says the Fed's rate-hike message was muddy Mar 23, 2023

Show notes

Greg McBride, chief financial analyst at BankRate.com, says that the Federal Reserve made it clear on Wednesday that it still needs to fight to get the Fed Funds rate above the rate of inflation to put the brakes on the economy, and while the Fed seemed to hint that it would only hike rates one more time this year, it's entirely possible that there will be more increases. What there won't be are rate cuts; McBride sizes up what it all means for consumers in The Big Interview. Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, turns to a popular and trending gold fund as an inflation/banking alternative with his 'ETF of the Week' and, in the Market Call, Brian Bollinger, president at Simply Safe Dividends talks about 'dividend safety scores' and finding appropriate income levels given rising rates and inflation.

HYCM's Coghlan: U.S. banking woes are creating global trouble Mar 22, 2023

Show notes

Giles Coghlan, chief market analyst at HYCM, says that the financial concerns springing from the current bank concerns are building a currency and economic crises for the rest of the world, noting that the situation has changed interest-rate expectations for central banks around the globe. He expects the Federal Reserve to follow the path set by the ECB -- Europe's central bank -- moderating expectations and hinting at rate cuts starting late this year, triggering significant market volatility as investors respond to the news. Also on the show, Stan Haithcock — Stan the Annuity Man - returns to help Chuck answer a listener's question about dollar-cost averaging into annuity products, Chuck discusses stock-picking gone wrong and Jim Cramer in today's wild markets, and Daniel Kern, chief investment officer at Nixon Peabody Trust Co., talks stocks, funds and ETFs in the Money Life Market Call.

Banking scare has scared investors suffering from '2008-itis' Mar 21, 2023

Show notes

Jack Janasiewicz, portfolio strategist for Natixis Investment Managers, says that the stock market's current issues around the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank and others has investors revisiting their feelings and emotions from the financial crisis of 2008. This '2008-itis' is leading them to act scared at a time when they should instead be doing a temperature check to decide if their asset allocation is appropriate for what lies ahead, which Janasiewicz sees as a mild recession later this year. In the Market Call, however, Roger Conrad of Conrad's Utility Investor say that he expects a deeper downturn and recession as the economy struggles for inflation significantly longer than most people have expected. Conrad says dividend-paying stocks can help investors ride out the turmoil, provided they are consistent and acquired at the right price. Also on the show, Ted Rossman discusses the latest survey from Bankrate.com on how taxpayers are reacting and responding to current conditions as they plan ahead for refunds, and Ed Slott, founder of IRAhelp.com, helps Chuck answer a listener's question about whether convert all of their retirement assets into Roth accounts.

Stifel's Bannister: 'Inflation's not going back to the old lows' Mar 20, 2023

Show notes

Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel, says he expects the stock market to end up in a 'flattish trading range for 10 years, similar from 2000 to 2012,' but makes it clear that outcome is not going to be the fallout of current events in the banking industry but rather is the result of long-standing economic trends. Katie Reichart, director of equity strategies manager research at Morningstar, goes 'Off The News' discussing the impact that the collapse of Silicon Valley Bank has had on some mutual funds and how investors should react if their funds produce surprising results based on bad calls in the sector. Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts a badly categorized 'mid-cap growth fund' into The Danger Zone and, in the Market Call, Salem Abraham, founder of Abraham Trading Company and manager of the Abraham Fortress Fund, talks about managing risk while picking stock.

Sit Funds' Doty on banking crisis: 'This is NOT a default problem' Mar 17, 2023

Show notes

Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates says that the problem at the heart of the current banking crisis is the speed that the Federal Reserve raised interest rates, noting that it was nearly impossible for bankers to adjust their portfolios to absorb bond losses driven by those higher rates. Now, Doty says, the Fed may need to take steps to help inject liquidity back into the market -- even if that stops the progress made on inflation -- to give institutions a breather and stabilize the banking system. In the Big Interview, economist Lawrence Kotlikoff of MaxiFi.com says the current situation has the potential to develop into a full-blown, long-remembered crisis, and discusses what can be done to stop it from getting that far. In the Market Call, Todd Rosenbluth, head of research at VettaFi talks about investing in exchange-traded funds.

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