Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

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Edward Jones' Mahajan: Mild recession ahead; equally mild recovery to follow Apr 14, 2023

Show notes

Mona Mahajan, senior investment strategist at Edward Jones, says that the economy is headed for a mild recession likely to hit home during the second half of 2023, but she notes that last year's big drop in the stock market did a lot of work to the downside, and while the market's hot start to this year means there is room for more back-sliding, she thinks those declines are mostly buying opportunities for the recovery that will follow the recession. Mahajan isn't expecting a blockbuster bounce-back, but says that recoveries tend to be at least as long and strong as the downturns they follow. Also on the show, Jonathan Mondillo, head of North American fixed income for abrdn, discusses the municipal bond market thus far in 2023 -- when it has been swinging wildly around headlines and macro changes -- and says investors need to drill down to look at individual issuers to deal better with the mixed signals the market is sending. In the Market Call, Clark Kendall, chief executive officer at Kendall Capital Management, talks stocks.

Allspring's de Silva: The big opportunity now is betting against stocks Apr 13, 2023

Show notes

Harin De Silva, manager of the Allspring U.S. Long/Short Equity, says that there are a lot of companies 'priced for perfection in a slowing economy in a slowing global business cycle,' creating a big opportunity for investors who are shorting stocks, betting that they will fall in price. De Silva says that the long side of his job -- finding stocks to buy -- is challenging, and he notes that his biggest concerns right now are wildcard risks like the banking crisis, war and more. De Silva expects the situation to return to more normal times -- favoring the buys and moving away from the shorts -- by the fall. Also on the show, Tom Lydon of VettaFi makes a big, brand-name fund full of giant brand-name stocks his ETF of the Week, financial adviser Robert Levitt talks about how Americans may find that their retirement savings lasts longer abroad, but notes that there are challenges to making the move, and Chuck discusses what Wednesday's inflation news does for the future attractiveness of inflation-protected U.S. savings bonds.

ICON's Callahan: Don't expect a market breakout -- or a plunge -- now Apr 12, 2023

Show notes

Craig Callahan, chief executive officer at ICON Advisers, says that the stock market is close to its fair value right now, but that 'the expensive industries the way we measure value are leading and the bargains are lagging and very sluggish,' a situation that is unsustainable and that will lead to volatile, choppy, sideways markets for the next few months. Callahan says he is holding more cash than normal but he expects to be fully invested by the fall of 2023, when he expects the market to be 5 to 7 percent higher than it is today. Also on the show, Odeta Kushi, deputy chief economist at First American Financial Corp., discusses the 'golden handcuffs' that the rapid increase in mortgage rates have put on many long-time homeowners, locking them into their properties and altering the housing market's prospects in ways typically overlooked by buyers and sellers, Mark Hamrick, senior economic analyst at BankRate.com discusses the site's recent survey showing that a majority of Americans are considering job changes despite of or because of current economic uncertainties, and Chuck answers a listener question on how the government's debt-ceiling problems could affect investors in ultra-safe money-market funds.

Stack Financial's Johnson: Bear-market lows haven't been met yet Apr 11, 2023

Show notes

Zach Jonson, senior portfolio manager at Stack Financial Management, says there are 'so many different headwinds' facing the market that 'we feel we're not quite through this yet.' He says that macro-level indicators are suggesting that the market will either re-test prior lows or set new ones, noting that current conditions suggest that there are enough positive indicators that investors should 'sit on your hands' and stand pat while watching the technicals play out. Also on the show, Marty Fridson, chief investment officer at Lehmann Livian Fridson Advisors and publisher of the Forbes/Fridson Income Securities Investor newsletter, says that 'the very rapid, most aggressive tightening of of rates that we have seen in a number of decades is behind us,' and that the bond market is 'more normal' than it has been in years, even as pockets like junk bonds and others are still a big concern for investors. In the Market Call, Gerry Frigon, chief investment officer at Taylor Frigon Capital Management talks about buying growth stocks in a slow/no-growth environment.

Janney's Luschini: The coming recession will be mild and brief Apr 10, 2023

Show notes

Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist for Janney Montgomery Scott, says the market's wild swings after its hot start are the kind of action investors will have to put up with until the market sees inflation start to give way and confidence grows that the Federal reserve has made real progress. That said, he expects a recession this year but notes that the economy is lacking the conditions that typically make a downturn deep and protracted so he believes it will be mild and brief before a recovery starts. Also on the show, John Cole Scott, president at Closed-End Fund Advisors, discusses private equity and debt in closed-end funds as a way of diversifying yield and risk in portfolios now, Kyle Guske of New Constructs puts another electric vehicle firm onto the list of 'zombie stocks' in The Danger Zone, and Bill Davis of Stance Capital and the Stance Equity ESG Large Cap Core ETF talks stocks in The Market Call.

Schutte expects solid recovery after mild recession Apr 06, 2023

Show notes

Brent Schutte, chief investment officer at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co. says investors should minimize portfolio moves — mostly to place a slightly greater emphasis on bonds — as they won't be waiting long to see a mild recession lead to a reasonably robust recovery. Schutte expects small-cap companies and international investments to be among the leading group, with large stocks suffering during the decline Also on the show, Tom Rieman, head of wealth solutions at J.D. Power, discusses the firm's look at how investors are largely dissatisfied with their current financial advisers after struggling through 2022, and Tom Lydon from VettaFi makes a fund with an entrepreneurial focus his ETF of the Week

Via Nova's Gayle: The bond market is 'getting closer to normal' Apr 05, 2023

Show notes

Alan Gayle, president of ViaNova Investment Management, says that positive economic fundamentals are being tempered and offset by higher inflation and interest rates, giving investors a laundry list of concerns over growth and the stock market, but he notes that the bond market is looking more like its old self than it has in years, giving investors asset allocation choices that will help them ride out the brewing economic storm. Also on the show, Everett Millman, precious metals specialist at Gainesville Coins, discusses why gold has been on the upswing despite not effectively playing its traditional role as an inflation hedge over the last few years, Ted Rossman of CreditCards.com covers a survey showing that consumers aren't effectively using credit card rewards, and Chuck talks about how now is a time when investors may want to focus on 'active holding' rather than buying or selling securities.

Cresset's Ablin: With recession/earnings decline ahead, go international Apr 04, 2023

Show notes

Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital Management, says a mild recession is coming, and he is diversifying internationally as part of his moves to deal with it, noting that international markets not only have valuation advantages against their U.S. counterparts, but as a currency play, noting that a rally in the yen or the Euro would create a tailwind for investors. In The Book Interview, Marc Lichtenfeld, chief income strategist of The Oxford Club and author of 'Get Rich With Dividends' -- the new third edition was released today -- talks about dividend strategies in a rising-rate environment. Plus, Chuck takes a contentious listener question about laddered portfolios now, and Sam Huisache of Clever Real Estate talks about the alarming rate of inflation in home prices compared to the higher prices consumers are paying on everything else.

3EDGE's Folts: We're cautious, playing defense with real assets, TIPS and more Apr 03, 2023

Show notes

Fritz Folts, chief investment strategist at 3EDGE Asset Management, says he is doubtful that the market's current rally can go on for too much longer, and when he sees profit levels decline it will be time to lighten up on equities and buckle up for a recession and downturn. In The Big Interview, he says the firm is diversifying and nimble, with real assets, TIPs and other fixed-income securities providing ballast to a portfolio that includes a lot of international exposure to balance out domestic equities. Greg McBride, chief financial strategist at BankRate.com discusses the firm's recent survey showing that online savings accounts have become much more attractive, but investors and savers aren't using them despite their improved payouts, David Trainer of New Constructs puts Carrier Global Corp. -- with highly overstated street earnings -- in the Danger Zone, and Charlie Bobrinskoy of Ariel Investments talks about 'Warren Buffett style value investing in The Market Call.

DeCarley's Garner sees stock and bond gains ahead as investors' FOMO kicks in Mar 31, 2023

Show notes

Carley Garner, senior commodity strategist at DeCarley Trading, says that 'people are way underallocated,' nervously sitting in cash and Treasuries while waiting for market troubles to play out, but when those investors get FOMO -- a fear of missing out -- and the money starts flowing back into investments, it will lift both the stock and bond markets. DeGarner expects a big comeback in 60-40 portfolios this year and says that several commodities markets are now trading at levels that present a good opportunity for investors to get back in, in turn spurring the FOMO of investors to help the rally pick up speed. In The Big Interview, Jeff Weniger, head of equity strategy at WisdomTree Asset Management, notes that the year has been a surprise due to the banking crisis and other problems that didn't stop the NASDAQ from having its best quarter in years, and he expects the market to digest problems and get healthier over the next six months. In The NAVigator segment, Cheryl Pate of the Angel Oak Financial Strategies Income Term Trust discusses the nation's banking concerns but notes that in those pains she sees 'a once-in-a-decade opportunity for the banking space.' And in the Market Call, Ken Laudan, manager of the Buffalo Large-Cap Growth fund, talks high-quality, defensive investing now.

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