Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

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SLC's Mullarkey: It's been all about the Fed, and it's going to stay that way Nov 16, 2023

Show notes

Dec Mullarkey, head of investment strategy and asset allocation at SLC Investments, says rate volatility has driven most market activity this year, and now the stock market is pricing in interest rate cuts toward the end of 2024. He thinks that timing is about right, but he notes that the market's fortunes for next year will rest almost entirely on the Federal Reserve, with the market understanding that the central bank has "reserved the right to be tougher here. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi has his ETF of the Week, and the VCR he's discussing is not the one gathering dust in your basement, economist Lawrence Marsh discusses his book "Money Flow in a Dynamic Economy," and how changes in the way money is moving have altered the picture for both the country and the world -- and how further changes could solve many of those problems -- plus Stan Haithcock "Stan the Annuity Man" returns to answer a personal question from Chuck about whether to take a lump-sum buyout offer on an old pension or to stick with the structured payout plan.

T. Rowe Price's Uruci: Expect 'elevated uncertainty' in '24 Nov 15, 2023

Show notes

T. Rowe Price issued its outlook for 2024 on Tuesday and Blerina Uruci, the firm's chief US economist, says that while she expects slower growth, "but I am not seeing a red flag here that indicates a recession is in the cards." She notes that forecasting has become harder in the post-COVID environment, making the margin for error higher, especially with the Federal Reserve still having work to do to bring inflation down, which "will keep uncertainty elevated for 2024." Uruci expects respectable growth, job growth and a low unemployment rate to create "a benign environment" for stocks and bonds. Also on the show, Len Estabrooks, owner of West Bridgewater Coin and Jewelry -- who Chuck and Gail went to when they sold some old jewelry and coins in September -- talks about the nuances of the cash-for-gold business, there's a Book Interview with Patrick Fisher, co-author of "The Compound Code: An Expert Guide to Trading Stocks and Options," and Ed Slott of IRAhelp.com is back to answer questions from the Money Life audience.

Hennessy's Ellison: The economy 'is stronger than people believe it is' Nov 14, 2023

Show notes

David Ellison, portfolio manager for the Hennessy Large-Cap and Small-Cap Financial Funds, says the struggle for banks will be "what's going to happen on the credit side as these loans re-price with the higher rates." Ellison says the economy's current strength is a function of what has happened over the last three decades, which has made the economy "stronger than people believe it is," which is why indicators like the inverted yield curve may not be accurate and functional now. Also on the show, Jennifer Burns, author of "Milton Friedman: The Last Conservative," discusses the legendary economist and his lasting impact on how today's leaders view the world, Stan Haithcock -- Stan the Annuity Man -- talks about how annuities perform and how attractive they should be to investors and savers in a higher-rate economy, and Chuck answers a listener's question about the efficacy of 60-40 portfolios, and how to allocate money around a core of target-date investments..

NDR's Clissold: Choppy markets ahead, but no 'nasty bear market' Nov 13, 2023

Show notes

Ed Clissold, chief US strategist at Ned Davis Research, says he expects a choppy market through the first half of 2024, but says the market won't uncork an ugly bear market without a significant recession, which he does not currently expect. That said, the volatility and the economic conditions should help the "SHUT stocks" -- staples, health care, utilities and telecom -- which are defensive, dividend-oriented plays, currently "the most oversold they have ever been." If interest rates drop and dividend payers get a boost from investors seeking yield, Clissold believes defensive plays will have a strong rebound. Also on the show, Ed Slott of IRAhelp.com discusses the year-end tax considerations investors should be thinking about now, David Trainer of New Constructs comes up with a Thanksgiving turkey, revisiting a Danger Zone pick that has gone all the way to zero and another pick that seems headed for bankruptcy, and Sam Huisache discusses a Clever Real Estate study showing that housing prices in states that have legalized recreational cannabis use are higher and rising faster than property values in states in which marijuana remains illegal.

Cresset's Ablin: Overvalued markets today will lead to muted gains in '24 Nov 10, 2023

Show notes

Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Cresset Capital Management, says that the "hurricane" of bad economic numbers investors expected in 2023 could be a "gale force wind" in 2024, which is "something we can adjust to," which should help keep an economic downturn to a modest amount of time. Still, Ablin says that the technology sector is trading at 47 percent premium on a relative forward P/E basis to the rest of the Standard and Poor's 500, and history suggests that condition will lead to mediocre performance over the next 12 months. In The NAVigator segment, Eric Purington of the Aberdeen Global Infrastructure Income Fund, says mega-mergers involving oil giants Exxon and Chevron have implications for middle-market and midstream energy companies and infrastructure companies, because they show that larger energy companies are poised to make big investments in smaller firms, and the deals have opened the door to other mergers at all levels of the industry. Plus, in the Market Call, Dan Ives of the Wedbush ETFMG Global Cloud Technology ETF talks artificial-intelligence and cloud computing companies.

IBKR's Torres: Recession is coming in '24, but it'll be short and mild Nov 09, 2023

Show notes

Jose Torres, senior economist at Interactive Brokers, says that America remains the best country in the world to do business in, which is going to maintain "a basement" that the economy will not slip past when it loses some steam early next year. "The consumer has assets and has jobs, and those two things will keep the economy doing all right," he says in The Big Interview. Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, pursues really big dividends with his pick for the ETF of the Week. Claire Martin Tellis discusses a Preply.com survey showing that higher salaries don't always lead to the best job satisfaction, but lower salaries do tend to involve work that's boring. Plus, in the Market Call, Derek Izuel, chief investment officer at Shelton Capital Management, talks stocks.

3EDGE's Folts: With U.S. markets overvalued, favor foreign stocks Nov 08, 2023

Show notes

Fritz Folts, chief investment strategist at 3EDGE Asset Management, says the domestic stock market "Has to go down a lot more from here to be considered at fair value," which is why he has more money working in international stocks, particularly in Japan, where markets are more fairly valued and central bankers have not had to tighten up monetary policy the way the Federal Reserve has had to in the U.S. He gives his most optimistic, pessimistic and realistic look-aheads to 2024. Ron Lieber, money columnist at The New York Times, goes off the news on his recent story about banks suddenly and unexpectedly closing down some consumer accounts without warning, leaving surprised customers at a loss and struggling to pay bills, make payrolls and more. In the Market Call, Chris Retzler of the Needham Small-Cap Growth fund discusses the struggles that smaller companies have had in a market dominated by a few big names.

Janney's Luschini: Expect the 2023 recession to arrive in '24 Nov 07, 2023

Show notes

Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist for Janney Montgomery Scott, says that the economic downturn everyone saw as happening this year wound up being postponed for solid economic reasons, but it hasn't been canceled and more likely just pushed back into 2024. Luschini says investors should be defensive, taking advantage of higher bond yields and not being sucked into low valuations on international investments, staying balanced but not too aggressive until the economy and market are on more solid ground. His forecast for a 2024 recession is in keeping with that of D.R. Barton Jr., chief investment strategist at Finiac, who says the market's technicals suggest that Santa Claus will be bringing a rally to town before the year ends, but that the New Year is likely to bring a recession that may be harder than most people expect after so much back and forth this year. Plus, in the Market Call, Eric Schoenstein of Jensen Investment Management talks about using quality as a factor in selecting growth stocks.

U.S. Global's Holmes: Santa's coming, and will kick off a good year in '24 Nov 06, 2023

Show notes

Frank Holmes, chief executive at U.S. Global Investors, says he believes interest rates have peaked, and that the economy will turn around in six months as rates start to fall, but he also believes there is plenty to carry the stock market in the short-term with the Santa Claus rally propping things up by year's end as gas prices start falling, with rate cuts also coming then to help boost the economy and the recovery. Also on the show, David Trainer, president of New Constructs revisits some "zombie stocks" that are less dangerous than in the past, but where their "good news" is not much cause for celebration. Plus Nancy Tengler, chief investment officer at Laffer Tengler Investments, talks stocks in the Market Call, and Chuck discusses the Weird Financial News.

Sit Investment's Doty: Fed is done, and a big bond opportunity is here Nov 03, 2023

Show notes

Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investment Associates, says he believes the Federal Reserve has finished hiking rates, even though it hasn't announced it. He looks at the clues in chairman Jerome Powell's remarks, and notes that this inflection point has bond yields at a great spot, noting "I can't remember a time when the real yield was as attractive as it is now." He's not the only one seeing opportunity in bonds, as Willie Delwiche of HiMount Research talks technicals and sees headwinds ahead for the stock market late in the year due to economic pressures that he expects to hit home early in 2024, but noting that bonds are poised for a long-term rally if/when interest rates start dropping. Also on the show, Steven Perry of XA Investments discusses the growth in non-listed closed-end funds and how they offer all investors -- including those without a lot of money -- the chance to get into asset classes that previously were reserved for the super wealthy and the big institutions and, in the Market Call, Rob Spivey of Valens Research talks about his firm's accounting-based methods for analyzing stocks.

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