Money Life with Chuck Jaffe

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LPL's Krosby: Market 'gets healthy' on shallow downturn, modest gains in '24 Dec 01, 2023

Show notes

Quincy Krosby, chief global strategist at LPL Financial, says that rolling recessions haven't eliminated the possibility of a true, classic recession but she doesn't think there will be anything more than a shallow downturn in 2024 as the economy continues slowing to resolve inflation and other headline issues. She expects stocks to deliver "a comfortable return" in 2024, but with volatility and a "healthy" move toward equilibrium. Don Vandenbord, chief investment officer at Revere Asset Management, makes his debut on the show talking technicals and notes that short-term trends are all strong and that the market's recent run shows that performance is broadening out, which is a bullish sign. He sees mostly positives, although the longest-term indicators he follows have not yet turned fully green. Axel Merk of the ASA Gold and Precious Metals, says that gold prices are most tightly correlated to "the confidence the market has in the central bank to manage inflation over time," so gold's rally over the last six weeks -- as well as its path forward -- is "favorable because we might be entering a recession, most notably a recession that is more severe than is currently priced into the market." Plus Brian Bollinger of Simply Safe Dividends talks quality income-producing stocks in the Market Call.

Stifel's Bannister: 'Right now, the market is expensive' Nov 30, 2023

Show notes

Barry Bannister, chief equity strategist at Stifel, says that the stock market "is a couple of hundred points ahead of where we should be," which means there's not a lot of upside here, but he does expect the factors driving the market to keep shifting away from growth and more towards value stocks. He says value and international stocks move together, and he expects them to turn positive now as value, international and small-cap stocks have been oversold. In the ETF of the Week, Tom Lydon of VettaFi says there is no place like home, and no sector like home builders. And in the Market Callm Jonathan Smucker of Marietta Investment Partners talks about using macro factors to guide asset-allocation decisions before applying fundamentals and a bottoms-up approach to pick actual investments.

Franklin Templeton's Dover: The market's priced for perfection that won't happen Nov 29, 2023

Show notes

Steven Dover, chief market strategist at Franklin Templeton and head of the Franklin Templeton Investment Institute -- says the stock market currently is priced for perfection that is unlikely to happen, noting that there has never been a time when the economy has slowed down but earnings have increased, but with consensus earnings growth estimates running in double digits, something appears to be off-kilter now. That makes Dover cautious on stocks, though he acknowledges that dividend-paying stocks and slow-and-steady stocks should be solid performers. Also on the show, Amanda Agati, chief investment officer at PNC Asset Management Group, discusses the firm's 40th annual Christmas Price Index, comparing inflation in the broad economy to the price hikes that someone faces if they try to buy all the gifts in "The 12 Days of Christmas." And in the Market Call, Roger Conrad of Conrad's Utility Investor talks about income-producers in utility and energy companies, REITs and more.

The election year won't stave off market, economic woes Nov 28, 2023

Show notes

Two different analysts -- looking at the economy and market from varying viewpoints -- agree on today's show that there is trouble ahead for the stock market and economy in 2024, and that the election cycle -- which historically holds that presidential election years are good times for the market -- isn't going to be able to keep trouble at bay until 2025. Erik Weisman, chief economist and portfolio manager at MFS Investments, says that the Federal Reserve's actions have postponed recession and a reasonably soft landing into 2024, but notes that he is looking for safe havens in bonds -- where he is looking longer term despite the inverted yield curve -- to ride out troubles. Meanwhile, Tom McClellan, editor of The McClellan Market Report, says that he expects a few more months of solid markets, particularly in large-cap stocks, before things turn and start a widespread decline that should start late in 2024 and that could last into 2026. Also on the show, Chuck answers a listener's question about finding ways to save more.

Chuck talks about how to stock up on financial gifts for the holidays Nov 27, 2023

Show notes

It's Cyber Monday and Chuck offers an alternative to the usual gift-buying pattern by talking about how savers and investors can now give gifts of stock easily and efficiently, teaching children and young adults like-long lessons about saving and investing. Moreover, Ted Rossman of Bankrate.com stops by and discusses gifts from the past that haven't worked out so well, based on the site's research showing that Americans routinely have gift cards they have not used. Plus, Jeffrey Hirsch of Hirsch Holdings returns to the show to discuss the latest edition of the Stock Trader's Almanac, and we revisit a recent conversation with Brad Lamensdorf of The Lamensdorf Market Timing Report.

Oakmark's McGregor: 'The hardest time to invest is always right now' Nov 24, 2023

Show notes

Clyde McGregor, portfolio manager for the Oakmark Equity and Income fund -- who is retiring at the end of the year -- returns to Money life noting that one of his former partners liked to say that "The hardest time to invest is always right now." That's how he feels today, with stocks feeling expensive and with so much money piled into the top stocks in the big indexes -- because past times when there was that concentration have played out poorly for the broad market -- but he notes that his fund is moving out of growthier companies he bought on sale last year to stocks that have done poorly this year but which are positioned for good returns moving forward. Celebrating Black Friday the Money Life way, Chuck goes discount shopping in closed-end funds with John Cole Scott, president of Closed-End Fund Advisors -- chairman of the Active Investment Company Alliance -- examining three funds to determine whether big current discounts represent a real deal, an average play or a fake-out. Plus, Maya Corbic, author of "From Piggy Banks to Stocks: The Ultimate Guide for a Young Investor" discusses the need and the right way to teach children about money.

Election year effects will stave off recession until 2025 Nov 22, 2023

Show notes

Jeffrey Hirsch, editor of the Stock Trader's Almanac, says that the stock market is right on track with expected calendar effects, which he sees as continuing through a Santa Claus rally and a positive January Barometer -- which portends a good year ahead for 2024. Further, citing the history of election-year market patterns, Hirsch says he expects the market to stay strong during 2024, holding off a recession and a bear market until 2025. That would be in keeping with classic election-cycle patterns. Also on the show, Tom Lydon, vice chairman at VettaFi, looks toward international small caps -- an area that has recovered to where the trend is turning positive -- for his ETF of the Week, and Adam Rozencwajg of Goehring and Rozencwajg talks natural resources and commodities investing in an extended Big Interview.

For early '24, Schutte expects recession, Lamensdorf a 'scary moment' Nov 21, 2023

Show notes

Brent Schutte, chief investment strategist at Northwestern Mutual Wealth Management Co., says a recession is likely for 2024, which will create some market pain as it extinguishes "the final embers of inflation which aren't burned out yet, namely wage growth." Schutte expects the market to struggle but notes that conditions are great for fixed income, though he warns against investors hiding in the short-end of the yield curve because rates will start to change next year, and investors who are focused on making the highest yield now will wind up facing reinvestment risk once the yield curve flattens or reverses its current inversion. Meanwhile, talking technicals, Brad Lamensdorf of the Lamensdorf Market-Timing Report and the Ranger Equity Bear ETF says the market is due for "a scary moment" likely in the spring or the summer of 2024, when there is a value reset. Lamensdorf notes that "We don't need a recession to have a 20 or 25 percent correction and I think one of those probably is due next year at some point, after we get out of this seasonably-favorable period." Plus, Benjamin Bailey of the Praxis Impact Bond fund gives his take on the fixed-income market, and sustainable bond investing.

How a fiduciary standard could change the whole world Nov 20, 2023

Show notes

George Kinder, president of The Kinder Institute of Life Planning and one of the leading lights in the financial planning industry, talks about his new initiative, "Fiduciary in All Things," which seeks to apply a fiduciary standard to more than just money relationships. While most stripes of financial adviser have an obligation to act as a fiduciary -- meaning they put the client's interest ahead of their own -- Kinder believes a straightforward golden-rule like standard cold help restore civility in politics and society, would make consumers happy and would make politicians more interested in serving their voters than being reelected by them. Also on the show, Lily Vittayarukskul, chief executive officer at Waterlily -- which won the FinTech competition at the recent FinCon conference -- discusses the real costs of long-term care and how families making care decisions need to think beyond insurance to do a thorough analysis, plus Ed Slott of IRAhelp.com returns to the show to answer another question from a listener.

Allan Sloan digs into how much money Elon Musk has lost on Twitter Nov 17, 2023

Show notes

Financial journalist Allan Sloan, a seven-time winner of the Loeb Award -- business journalism's highest honor -- discusses his recent Fast Company column sizing up just how much money Elon Musk and his investors have lost in his dalliance with Twitter, and while the huge losses won't impact Musk's net worth, how bad deals like this do impact real people and ordinary investors who fall for the hype of a successful entrepreneur. Bryce Doty, senior portfolio manager at Sit Investments, returns to the show discussing closed-end funds and the massive discounts on muni funds -- currently at roughly 13.5 percent, compared to a historic average of about 4 percent -- and what has to happen for investors to profit from those discounts narrowing. Also returning to the show, Nancy Tengler, chief investment officer at Laffer Tengler Investments, who today discusses "The Women's Guide to Successful Investing," which she recently updated with a second edition. Plus, Ed Slott of IRAhelp.com is back to answer another question from a Money Life listener.

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