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Money For the Rest of Us — Business
Money For the Rest of Us

A personal finance and investing podcast on money, how it works, how to invest it and how to live without worrying about it. J. David Stein is a former Chief Investment Strategist and money manager. For close to two decades, he has been teaching individuals and institutions how to invest and handle their finances in ways that are simple to understand. More info at moneyfortherestofus.com

Copyright: © All rights reserved

Latest Episodes:

Is It Time To Invest In Big Tech or Medium Tech Stocks? (FAANGs and FANMAGs) May 04, 2022

Show notes

With many of the largest tech stocks falling over 20% year-to-date, is now the time to invest? Has the market changed to where tech investing is a safe bet?

Topics covered include:

What happened to Netflix
What contributed to the astounding performance of large tech stocks since 2013
How the largest contributors to overall stock market performance are always changing
Why the largest tech companies could fall even more from today's level
What are the valuations and sentiment toward large tech stocks
What is complexity economics and how does it influence technology
How younger investors and fractional trading have influenced the stock market
Why stock splits are less effective today in driving up share prices

For more information on this episode click here.

Sponsors

Policygenius - save over 50% on life insurance

OurCrowd - the fastest-growing venture capital community

Show Notes

Netflix stock plunges as subscribers quit by Julianne Pepitone and Aaron Smith—CNN Money

Netflix Explores a Version With Ads as Subscriber Base Shrinks by Joe Flint and Denny Jacob—The Wall Street Journal

No, you did not see the Netflix mess coming by Robert Armstrong—Financial Times

FANMAG: Because FAANGs Are So Yesterday—Dimensional

Complexity and the Economy by W. Brian Arthur

Rising Risk of Stagflation by Chris Brightman—Research Affiliates

"Fractional Trading" by Zhi Da, Vivian W. Fang, and Wenwei Lin

"Attention Induced Trading and Returns: Evidence from Robinhood Users" by Brad M. Barber, Xing Huang, Terrance Odean, and Christopher Schwarz

Retail Raw: Wisdom of the Robinhood Crowd and the COVID Crisis by Ivo Welch (NBER Working Paper No. 27866. September 2020, Revised October 2020)—National Bureau of Economic Research

Related Episodes

261: Is Value Investing Dead?

298: The Stock Market Is Not the Economy

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Has A Commodities Bull Market Super Cycle Started? If So, How Do You Invest In It? Apr 27, 2022

Show notes

What causes secular bull and bear markets in commodities. What factors suggest a new commodities bull market has started and how can investors participate. What are the risks.

Topics include:

What is a bull and bear market
How long have earlier commodity bull and bear markets lasted and what were the returns
What led to the current commodity bear market that began in 2011
How shareholder revolts and ESG mandates have contributed to reduced investment in the commodities space, contributing to the rebound in commodity prices
Why natural gas prices are so much higher in Europe than the U.S.
How the shift to electric vehicles is driving the demand for commodities
What are five ways to participate in a commodities bull market

For more information on this episode click here.

Sponsors

LinkedIn - post your job for free by using this link

Show Notes

Jeff Currie on the 'Volatility Trap' Keeping Commodity Prices So High - Odd Lots - Bloomberg

NGP Energy Capital

Research—Strategas Securities

The Energy Blame Game and Other False Narratives—Energy Income Partners

Related Episodes

296: Why Negative Prices Exist and What Can They Teach Us

340: Climate Change, ESG, and What Should Investors Do?

351: How to Profit From Carbon Investing While Combatting Climate Change

382: Is A Famine Next? Food Inflation, Food Riots, and Investing in Commodities and Other Real Things

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How To Be A Successful Contrarian Investor Apr 20, 2022

Show notes

How contrarians combine value and momentum to take positions opposite what the consensus believes. What is the consensus view in today's financial markets and how are contrarians positioned.

Topics covered include:

Five attributes of successful investors
Why does the consensus expect stagflation
How central banks have performed in previous tightening cycles
Three reasons central banks tightening results in a recession
When have interest rates peaked in prior tightening cycles
How stocks tend to do well when investors get extremely pessimistic
What are examples of contrarian investments in the current market environment
How contrarian opportunities involve both value and momentum
What are some additional examples of being contrarian outside of the investment arena

For more information on this episode click here.

Sponsors

OurCrowd - Invest in pre-vetted startups

FarmTogether - Invest in farmland

Show Notes

Weekly Market Pulse: Time To Get Contrarian? by Joseph Y. Calhoun III—Alhambra Investment

BofA Says Fund Managers Most Gloomy on Record on Recession Woes by Nikos Chrysoloras—Bloomberg

Hot Economy, Rising Inflation: The Fed Has Never Successfully Fixed a Problem Like This by Jon Hilsenrath and Nick Timiraos—The Wall Street Journal

Tightening risks recession but inaction would be worse by Neil Shearing—Capital Economics

Seeing What's Next: Using the Theories of Innovation to Predict Industry Change by Clayton M. Christensen, Scott D. Anthony, and Erik A. Roth

Related Episodes

261: Is Value Investing Dead?

266: Using Momentum Investing and Trend Following

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Is A Famine Next? Food Inflation, Food Riots, and Investing in Commodities and other Real Things Apr 13, 2022

Show notes

Why food costs are soaring and what we can do about it. Why inflation rates could start to drop. Why commodity futures, including agriculture futures, have been lousy inflation hedges, and what has worked better.

Topics covered include:

Previous investment recommendations by Money For the Rest of Us to combat inflation
Why commodity futures hedge against unexpected inflation but have underperformed inflation over the long-term
A recommended ETF for investing in commodity futures
What is causing the jump in food prices and fertilizer
Why the risk of food shortages is increasing and what are remedies to solve it
Why agriculture price increases don't always lead to higher food costs at the store
Why inflation rates could slow in the coming months

For more information on this episode click here.

Episode Sponsors

Composer automated trading platform

Show Notes

Ukraine War Threatens to Cause a Global Food Crisis by Jack Nicas—The New York Times

Russia’s invasion of Ukraine is causing record-high food prices—The Economist

As sanctions bite Russia, fertilizer shortage imperils world food supply by Tom Polansek and Ana Mano—Reuters

All That’s Stopping a Full-Blown Food Crisis? Rice by Javier Blas—The Washington Post

Packaged-food firms are running out of room to raise prices—The Economist

Prospective Plantings, March 31, 2022—USDA

Related Episodes

232: Is It Time To Invest In Commodities?

309: Investments to Fight Financial Repression

312: What the Federal Reserve’s New Policies Mean For Your Finances

336: Own What Is Real

338: The National Debt, Inflation, and the U.S. Dollar—What Could Go Wrong?

342: Is Another Great Inflation Coming?

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Investing in Business Development Companies (BDCs) and other Niche Assets That Trade on Stock Exchanges Apr 06, 2022

Show notes

We review the ten asset categories that trade on major stock exchanges, many of which are smaller niches in which individual investors have an edge over institutional investors.

How to invest in business development companies, a small segment of the markets that has returned 9% annualized with dividend yields of 8%.

Topics covered include:

How securities trading has changed and why are there so many trading platforms
Why do institutions still pay trading commissions
When did stock exchanges start and which are the largest
What are direct and indirect investment vehicles
What are the ten asset types that trade on stock exchanges
How to invest in business development companies (BDCs)

For more information on this episode click here.

Sponsors

Wealthfront - get your first $5,000 managed for free for life

LinkedIn - post your first job for free

Show Notes

New York Stock Exchange (NYSE)—Corporate Finance Institute

Off-Exchange Trading To Continue To Grow In US by Shanny Basar—Traders Magazine

How We Analyzed Wall Street Block Trades by Liz Hoffman, Corrie Driebusch, and Tom McGinty—The Wall Street Journal

U.S. Institutional Equity Trading Commissions Jump 25% to $8.9BN in 2021, According to Bloomberg Intelligence—Bloomberg

Largest stock exchange operators worldwide as of December 2021, by market capitalization of listed companies—Statista

Total Market Value of U.S. Stock Market—Siblis Research

ETFGI reports the ETFs industry in the United States ended 2021 with record high assets of US$7.21 trillion and record net inflows of US $919.78 billion—ETFGI

REIT Industry Financial Snapshot—Nareit

Mortgage REITs—Nareit

Closed-End Fund Assets and Net Issuance—Investment Company Institute

Investor Bulletin: American Depositary Receipts—U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission

What is an ADR?—Stock Market MBA

Direct Lenders in the U.S. Middle Market by Tetiana Davydiuk, Tatyana Marchuk, and Samuel Rosen

Business Development Companies (BDCs)—Levin Law

Related Episodes

318: What Are SPACs and Should You Invest in Them?

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How Stories Drive Our Happiness and Financial Success Mar 30, 2022

Show notes

Stories determine economic and financial outcomes, both our own and the world in aggregate. Here's how to craft and follow stories that will lead to better financial outcomes and greater happiness.

Topics covered include:

How financial narratives give us the confidence to take action in the face of uncertainty and potential loss
How the greater the stakes, the more we rely on anecdotal evidence rather than statistics
Is the world more stable and predictable or in a constant state of disorder
How stories determine what we buy and aspire to and how marketers try to influence those stories
How stories of fear and greed influenced economic outcomes in the 1920s and 1930s
How more precise stories lead to greater confidence and potentially to manipulation.
How to get off the hedonic treadmill in order to be happier

Thanks to OurCrowd and Policygenius for sponsoring the episode.

For more information on this episode click here.

Show Notes

Joseph Campbell & The Hero’s Journey by Tamlorn Chase—Odyssey Online

Panarchy: Understanding Transformations in Human and Natural Systems by Lance H. Gunderson

Horisaki Design & Handel

Optimizing SKU Selection for Promotional Display Space at Grocery Retailers by Pak Et al.

The Role of Sentiment in the Economy of the 1920s by Kabiri Et al.

Monetary Policy and the Management of Uncertainty: A Narrative Approach by Bank of England Publications Et al.

Impressed by Numbers: The Extent to Which Novice Investors Favor Precise Numerical Information in a Context of Uncertainty by Batteux Et al.

When poignant stories outweigh cold hard facts: A meta-analysis of the anecdotal bias by Freling Et al.

Narrative Economics: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Major Economic Events by Robert J. Shiller

Walgreens replaced some fridge doors with screens. And some shoppers absolutely hate it by Nathaniel Meyersohn—CNN

Supermarket Facts—FMI

How To Want Less by Arthur C. Brooks—The Atlantic

Related Episodes

294: How Stories Go Viral and Drive Economic Events

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People Like Us Invest Like This - Remastered with New Introduction Mar 23, 2022

Show notes

This week, we revisit a classic episode released five years ago. In a newly recorded introduction, David shares the background on the episode and why he chose to release it again in its newly edited form.

Topics covered include:

The availability heuristic and confirmation bias
How to deal with extreme events when most days are just like the day before
How chaos and unpredictability is used as a leadership strategy
Why do we need a point of view to guide our actions when investing
How to manage financially in a increasingly complex and risky world

Show Notes

Uncertainty – Lawrence M. Krauss – Edge

Regression To the Mean – James J. O’Donnell – Edge

Excerpts from Seth Klarman’s 2016 year end letter to his clients as quoted in the New York Times

Messy: The Power of Disorder To Transform Our Lives – Tim Harford

Seth Godin Course on Presenting To Persuade

Ultra-Easy Money: Digging The Hole Deeper? – William R. White

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Do We Even Need Leaders? Mar 16, 2022

Show notes

How societies have functioned without leaders, including leaderless megacities that survived over 800 years.

Topics covered include:

Is geopolitics more like chess or poker
Why analysts think Putin will soon agree to a settlement with Ukraine
Do most development occur from the top-down or bottom-up
What are some examples of leaderless societies and organizations
How social capital and enforcement mechanisms allow the world to function without leaders telling everyone what to do
How companies are struggling with the workplace of the future and the role of leadership
Why do we need more leadership and fewer bosses

Thanks to Mint Mobile and Policygenius for sponsoring the episode.

For more information on this episode click here.

Show Notes

The Next 100 Years: A Forecast for the 21st Century by George Friedman

Thinking in Bets: Making Smarter Decisions When You Don't Have All the Facts by Annie Duke

Possible Outcomes of the Russo-Ukrainian War and China’s Choice—U.S.-China Perception Monitor

Why Is Leadership Important? by Eric Beato—Babson Thought & Action

Do We Need Leaders? by Jimmy Guterman_Harvard Business Review Home

3 Reasons Why We Need Leaders—Jonathan Sandling

If We’re All Talented People, Why Do We Still Need a Leader? by Angelina Phebus—Lifehack

Trust, Associational Life and Economic Performance by Stephen Knack

Is hybrid work the worst of both worlds?—The Economist

The Dawn of Everything: A New History of Humanity by David Graeber, David Wengrow

Related Episodes

203: Is Investing More Like Poker or Chess?

280: Travel and the Trust Economy

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Is Stagflation Coming? Mar 09, 2022

Show notes

Will the world experience both inflation and subpar economic growth at the same time?

Topics covered include:

What is inflation and what causes it
What have been the largest contributors to recent high inflation
Why does not everyone experience inflation in the same way
Why inflation measures are subjective
What are long-term deflationary forces faces the global economy
What is stagflation and what causes it
How do we monitor stagflation to see if it is coming

Thanks to FarmTogether and LinkedIn for sponsoring the episode

For more information on this episode click here.

Show Notes

Consumer Price Index News Release February 10, 2022—U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Alternate Inflation Charts—John Williams' Shadow Government Statistics

OPEC chief says there's 'no capacity in the world' that could replace Russia's 7 million barrels a day in oil supply-Adam Morgan McCarthy—Markets Insider

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What If It's Different This Time? - The Impact of the Russian-Ukraine War Mar 02, 2022

Show notes

What can we do to prepare if the Russian-Ukraine war gets even worse?

Topics covered include:

How risk and uncertainty differ as does how we manage them
What we can learn from Ukraine and Russian citizens on dealing with uncertainty
What will be the financial impact of the sanctions against Russia and the ruble collapse
Why and how we should all prepare for potential cyberattacks
Why now is the time to make sure you have an appropriate asset allocation
How holding dollars, euros, or stablecoin can help protect against currency collapses
What we can do to help Ukraine

Thanks to Masterworks and Policygenius for sponsoring the episode

For more information on this episode click here.

Show Notes

JPMorgan Says Selling Stocks Now Carries Too Much Risk by Nikos Chrysoloras—Bloomberg

Ukraine conflict: Dread in Kyiv as huge Russian convoy advances by Lyse Doucet—BBC

Russia launches fierce rocket attack on Ukrainian city of Kharkiv by Guy Chazan, John Reed, Max Seddon, Henry Foy, John Paul Rathbone, and Demetri Sevastopulo—Financial Times

How new sanctions could cripple Russia’s economy—The Economist

Russian c.bank orders block on foreign clients' bids to sell Russian securities - document—Reuters

Ukraine invasion: Russians feel the pain of international sanctions by Anastasia Stognei and Simon Fraser—BBC

The dire predictions about a Russian cyber onslaught haven’t come true in Ukraine. At least not yet. by Joseph Menn and Craig Timberg—The Washington Post

Hackers Breached Colonial Pipeline Using Compromised Password by William Turton and Kartikay Mehrotra—Bloomberg

‘Yes, He Would’: Fiona Hill on Putin and Nukes by Maura Reynolds—Politico

Related Episodes

229: Tail Events and Tail Risk

332: What Is Risk vs Uncertainty?

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