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Money For the Rest of Us

A personal finance and investing podcast on money, how it works, how to invest it and how to live without worrying about it. J. David Stein is a former Chief Investment Strategist and money manager. For close to two decades, he has been teaching individuals and institutions how to invest and handle their finances in ways that are simple to understand. More info at moneyfortherestofus.com

Copyright: © All rights reserved

Latest Episodes:

The Pandemic Might Be "Over," but Not the Repercussions Sep 21, 2022

Show notes

How risk perceptions and actions have changed over several years of the pandemic. How the pandemic's impacts continue to affect politics, the economy, financial markets, how we invest, and our personal lives.

Topics covered include:

Is the pandemic really over?
What percentage of people continue to isolate at home
How behaviors such as eating out and visiting friends have changed throughout the pandemic.
How work has changed with the pandemic
Has pandemic stimulus changed beliefs about the sustainability of the national debt leading to structural inflation
How productivity improvements could improve the national debt burden
What investment lessons has David learned from the pandemic

For more information on this episode click here.

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Show Notes

Biden’s claim that ‘pandemic is over’ complicates efforts to secure funding by Dan Diamond—The Washington Post

COVID-19 Dashboard—The Center for Systems Science and Engineering at Johns Hopkins University

Axios/Ipsos COVID-19 Poll – Wave 70, September 9–12, 2022

Study: 163 Million People Dine Out at Least Once a Week—QSR Magazine

U.S. Return-to-Office Rates Hit Pandemic High as More Employers Get Tougher By Peter Grant—The Wall Street Journal

Reassessing Constraints on the Economy and Policy; Panel Topic: An End to Pre-Pandemic Trends or Just a Temporary Interruption? by Valerie A. Ramey

Inflation as a Fiscal Limit by Francesco Bianchi and Leonardo Melosi

Related Episodes

333: How The Covid Shock Nearly Destroyed The Financial System

400: What If High Inflation Doesn’t End?

Investments Mentioned

Simplify Interest Rate Hedge ETF (PFIX)

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Why Student Debt Is So High and Why Forgiving It Doesn't Fix the Problem Sep 14, 2022

Show notes

What are the drivers that lead to higher student loan balances? Why a one-time student loan forgiveness program doesn't solve the problem of increasing student debt. What are some more viable longer-term solutions.

Topics covered include:

How big is the Biden Administration student debt forgiveness plan
How big has the student debt burden grown
Why are borrowings for students increasing
Why Baby Boomers spent so much less on college
How are student loans accounted for by the U.S. federal government
What is the impact on the deficit and potentially inflation of forgiving billions of dollars of student debt

For more information on this episode click here.

Show Notes

Student Debt And The Federal Budget | How Student Loans Impact The U.S. Fiscal Outlook, November 2021—Bipartisan Policy Center

What the Student-Loan Debate Overlooks by Ronald Brownstein—The Atlantic

See the Average College Tuition in 2022-2023 by Emma Kerr and Sarah Wood—U.S. News & World Report

Biden’s Student-Debt Plan Could Chip Away at the Racial Wealth Gap by Sheelah Kolhatkar—The New Yorker

If your federal student loan payments are high compared to your income, you may want to repay your loans under an income-driven repayment plan—Federal Student Aid

What Does Student Debt Cancellation Mean for Federal Finances?—Committee for a Responsible Federal Budget

Government payments by program—Economic Research Service, U.S. Department of Agriculture

Projected Lifetime Earnings by Major by Douglas A. Webber, December 1st, 2019

Related Episodes

245: Is College Worth It?

307: Income Share Agreements—Good for Students or Investors?

327: Is Student Loan Forgiveness A Good Idea?

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Why Diversifying Your Portfolio Feels So Awful Sep 07, 2022

Show notes

Warren Buffet said, "Diversification makes very little sense for anyone that knows what they’re doing." He also said, "Diversification is a protection against ignorance..." Most of us need that protection against ignorance, yet diversification often makes us feel bad when some of our holdings don't do as well as others. We make the case why we should diversify anyway.

Topics covered:

Warren Buffet says it's crazy to own more than 30 stocks, but Berkshire Hathaway owns 48 stocks
What does it mean to analyze a business
How have U.S. stocks performed relative to non-U.S. stocks long-term
What has driven the outperformance of U.S. stocks and what has to happen for it to continue
What are examples of diversification plays just in case the U.S. falters

For more information on this episode click here.

Show Notes

Warren Buffett and Diversification—GrahamValue.com

The Complete Berkshire Hathaway Portfolio by John Divine U.S. News

The Business Cycle Is Different Than The Economic Cycle - Crestmont Research

EU Natural Gas—Trading Economics

Related Episodes

254: Should You Be 100% Invested In Stocks?

275: Are You Over Diversified?

364: Should You Hedge Your International Stock Exposure Against Currency Fluctuations?

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What If High Inflation Doesn't End? How To Invest If High Inflation Stays Aug 31, 2022

Show notes

How economic wars, pandemics, and worker shortages could lead to years of high structural inflation. What needs to happen to avoid this dire inflation scenario.

Topics covered include:

What are the three inflation lessons Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell shared
What is inflation anchoring
What caused the current period of high inflation
How China and Russia contributed to low inflation and why those trends have reversed
How behavior changes and productivity improvements can contribute to lower inflation
How to invest for an extended period of high inflation

For more information on this episode click here.

Thanks to Policygenius for sponsoring the episode.

Show Notes

Monetary Policy and Price Stability, August 26, 2022, byChair Jerome H. Powell—Board of Governors of the Federal Reserve System

Fed's Kashkari: 'happy' with market reaction to Powell speech by Ann Saphir and Matthew Lewis—Reuters

War and Interest Rates by Zoltan Pozsar—Credit Suisse

2nd Quarter Market Commentary, July 2022—Horizon Kinetics

BP Energy Outlook 2022

Investments Mentioned

Invesco DB Commodity Tracking ETF (DBC)

Horizons Kinetics Inflation Beneficiary ETF (INFL)

Related Episodes

342: Is Another Great Inflation Coming?

384: Has a Commodities Bull Market Supercycle Started? If So, How Do You Invest in It?

395: How Population Trends Will Impact Growth, Inflation, Investing, and Well Being

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Unintended Consequences Impact Everything Aug 24, 2022

Show notes

We explore examples of positive and negative unintended consequences, what causes them, and how to navigate a world where unanticipated things happen all of the time.

Topics covered include:

What leads to unintended consequences
What are some unintended consequences of QE and stimulus, price controls, tax incentives, gun legislation, and marijuana legalization
How positive unintended consequences and order can arise from the bottom up
How recent climate legislation could lead to unintended consequences
Why customers don't always know what they want

For more information on this episode click here.

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Show Notes

Large rent increases squeeze metro Phoenix tenants by Associated Press—The Journal Record

Unintended Consequences by Karras Lambert and Christopher J. Coyne

The Seen, the Unseen, and the Unrealized: How Regulations Affect Our Everyday Lives byPer L. Bylund

Norway reconsiders electric car privileges by Chris Randall—electrive.com

More Guns, More Unintended Consequences: The Effects of Right-to-Carry on Criminal Behavior and Policing in Us Cities by John J. Donohue, Samuel Cai, Matthew Bondy, and Philip J. Cook

Marijuana Legalization and Fertility by Sarah Papich

Japan’s latest alcohol advice: please drink more by Leo Lewis and Kana Inagaki—Financial Times

The Poverty of Historicism by Karl Popper

How the New Climate Bill Would Reduce Emissions by Nadja Popovich and Brad Plumer—The New York Times

Democrats Designed the Climate Law to Be a Game Changer. Here’s How. by Lisa Friedman—The New York Times

Economists’ Statement on Carbon Dividends; The Largest Public Statement of Economists in History—Climate Leadership Council

Why We Don't Have a Carbon Tax by Paul Krugman—The New York Times

Lean Startup and the Business Model: Experimentation Revisited by Teppo Felin, Alfonso Gambardella, Scott Stern, and Todd Zenger

Related Episodes

158: How To Invest Like A Cockroach

236: How Investors Cope With Radical Uncertainty

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When Should You Hire An Investment Advisor? Two Case Studies Aug 17, 2022

Show notes

We analyze two listeners' portfolios. One who is close to retirement and considering hiring an outside money manager. The second is 45 and just sold a business and is trying to decide whether to fire Schwab's robo-advisor service and manage his portfolio on his own.

Topics covered include:

What elements are part of a financial plan
What to consider when researching an investment advisor
What is a core-satellite investment approach
Why Schwab was fined $180 million for misleading its clients about the cash balance in its Intelligent Portfolios service
How to decide if an investment advisor is a good fit
Why no portfolio can be on autopilot, but they can be as simple as two ETFs

For more information on this episode click here.

Sponsors

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Masterworks - Invest in contemporary art

Show Notes

Schwab Subsidiaries Misled Robo-Adviser Clients about Absence of Hidden Fees—SEC

Cease-And-Desist Order Against Charles Schwab & Co, June 13, 2022—SEC

Related Episodes

92: What Robo-Advisors Recommend

248: How to Avoid Investment Fraud

303: How To Do Financial Planning

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How To Invest Based on Cycles Aug 10, 2022

Show notes

This episode edits and remasters two earlier episodes on investing based on cycles to focus on timeless investing principles.

Topics covered include:

What are different types of cycles
Why do cycles have subjective start and end dates.
Why do coincidences happen so often.
How to position investment portfolios based on cycles.
How luck and skill play a role in investing.
Why it is better to invest based on calibrating risk rather than prediction.

For more information on this episode click here.

Show Notes

Weiss Research SEC Action

Foundation For The Study of Cycles

Fluke: The Math and Myth of Coincidence by Joseph Mazur

A Spectral Analysis of World GDP Dynamics – Andrey V. Korotayev and Sergey V. Tsirel

Howard Marks – Yet Gain?

Mastering The Market Cycle by Howard Marks

Related Episodes

173: Should You Invest Based On Cycles

224: Mastering the Market Cycle – Howard Marks

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Forsage and Herbalife—How Multi-Level Marketing, Pyramid Schemes, and Ponzi Schemes Differ Aug 03, 2022

Show notes

Why it is challenging to distinguish a legitimate multi-level marketing company from a pyramid scheme as hedge fund billionaire Bill Ackman found out in his losing campaign against Herbalife. How Forsage has taken pyramid and Ponzi schemes to a whole new level, and why the regulators can't shut it down.

Topics covered include:

What are multi-level marketing companies and how most MLM distributors are unsuccessful
What is the difference between a pyramid scheme and a Ponzi scheme and what are some examples
How hedge fund Pershing Square Capital Management took on Herbalife and despite FTC and SEC actions, Herbalife continues to thrive.
Why Forsage, a pyramid and Ponzi scheme on the blockchain, continues, despite SEC regulatory actions
Why Bitcoin isn't a Ponzi scheme

For more information on this episode click here.

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Money For the Rest of Us Plus

Show Notes

Herbalife Settlement With F.T.C. Ends Billionaires’ Battle by Matthew Goldstein and Alexandra Stevenson—The New York Times

Multi-Level Marketing Businesses and Pyramid Schemes—Federal Trade Commission

Herbalife International Settlement Complaint

Herbalife Settles With S.E.C., but Too Late for Hedge Fund Investor by Matthew Goldstein—The New York Times

Consistency is Key! Make Money Podcasting by Elsie Escobar—Libsyn

November Stats From Rob Walch—Podcast Business Journal

Federal Trade Commission Returns More Than $149 Million To Consumers Harmed by AdvoCare Pyramid Scheme—Federal Trade Commission

Federal Trade Commission Returns More Than $23 Million To Consumers Deceived by Online Business Coaching Scheme MOBE—Federal Trade Commission

FTC Shuts Down Credit Repair Pyramid Scheme Financial Education Services, Which Bilked More Than $213 Million from Consumers—Federal Trade Commission

Investor Alert: Ponzi Schemes Using Virtual Currencies—U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission

What is Forsage?—Forsage Support

Related Episodes

248: How to Avoid Investment Fraud

253: Are IPOs the New Ponzi Scheme?

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How Population Trends Will Impact Growth, Inflation, Investing, and Well Being Jul 27, 2022

Show notes

How slowing population growth and an eventual population peak will lead to competition for foreign workers, potentially higher inflation, and ultimately the need to transition to a steady-state economy rather than one based on constantly producing more.

Topics covered include:

How longevity and birthrates impact population growth
What areas of the world are seeing population increases versus declines
Why high income countries will need more immigrants in order to sustain their population levels
When is global population expected to peak and at what level
Will greater dependency ratios lead to higher inflation
What is the difference between growth and development
How slowing population growth will impact investments
Why the world will need to transition to a steady-state economy focused on well-being rather than growth

For more information on this episode click here.

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Money For the Rest of Us Plus

Show Notes

World Population Prospects 2022: Summary of Results—United Nations Department of Economy and Social Affairs

Five Key Findings from the 2022 UN Population Prospects by Hannah Ritchie, et al.

Germany Plans to Simplify Immigration Rules to Combat Labour Shortage—Schengen Visa

High Cost Deters IT Gurus from Filling Luxembourg Jobs by Kate Oglesby

Another Beautiful Italian Town Is Selling €1 Homes—This Time, No Deposit Required by Cailey Rizzo

Will Inflation Make a Comeback as Populations Age? by Olli Rehn

The Great Demographic Reversal: Ageing Societies, Wanting Inequality, and an Inflation Revival by Charles Goodhart and Manoj Pradhan

The Enduring Link Between Demography and Inflation by Mikael Juselius and Elöd Takáts

Unions Are Now a Lifestyle Choice for Some Young, Aspirational Workers, Says Walter Olson—The Economist

Economics for a Full World by Herman Daly

This Pioneering Economist Says Our Obsession with Growth Must End by David Marchese

The Environmental Kuznets Curve by David I. Stern

Small Is Beautiful: Economics as if People Mattered by Ernst F. Schumacher

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How To Get Better At Risk Taking Jul 20, 2022

Show notes

Five ways we can better take and manage risk.

Topics covered include:

How likely is it that China will invade Taiwan and the stock market will fall 80%
Why experts tend to be humble and don't make specific predictions
What is the difference between risk and uncertainty, and between loss capacity and loss aversion
What factors impact our degree of loss aversion and loss tolerance
Why the economy needs more risk takers rather than rentiers

For more information on this episode click here.

Sponsors

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Show Notes

Investor Risk Profiling: An Overview by Joachim Klement, CFA—CFA Institute Research Foundation

Looming Large or Seeming Small? Attitudes Towards Losses in a Representative Sample by Jonathan Chapman, et al.

The Global Impacts of Climate Change on Risk Preferences by Wesley Howden and Remy Levin

Does Mood Take the Front Seat in Determining the Financial Risk-Taking Propensity of Individuals? Evidence from India by Crystal Glenda Rodrigues and Gopalakrishna B. V

Venture Capital AUM at Record High of $2tn—Preqin

10 Key Facts About the Capital Markets by Katie Kolchin, CFA—SIFMA

Related Episodes

What Is Risk vs Uncertainty?

268: How To Better Manage Risk

350: How to Invest in Startups on Equity Crowdfunding Platforms?

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