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Money For the Rest of Us

A personal finance and investing podcast on money, how it works, how to invest it and how to live without worrying about it. J. David Stein is a former Chief Investment Strategist and money manager. For close to two decades, he has been teaching individuals and institutions how to invest and handle their finances in ways that are simple to understand. More info at moneyfortherestofus.com

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Latest Episodes:

What Happens If The U.S. Defaults On Its Debt? Here's Why It Won't May 17, 2023

Show notes

What are the grave consequences if the U.S. debt ceiling isn't increased and the government defaults? What would the Federal Reserve and the Executive Branch do to prevent default if Congress doesn't act?

Topics covered include:

What are the potential impacts of a U.S. default on the stock and bond markets, and the overall economy
What causes the U.S. to have a perennial debt ceiling crisis
Why it is uncertain when the U.S. government would run out of money to meet its obligations
What the Biden Administration could do to prevent a default
What the Federal Reserve could do to prevent a default
Given the ongoing crisis, should you shift assets from stocks to cash?

For more information on this episode click here.

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Masterworks – invest in contemporary art

Masterworks Disclosure:

“net IRR” refers to the annualized internal rate of return net of all fees and costs, calculated from the offering closing date to the sale date. IRR may not be indicative of Masterworks paintings not yet sold, and past performance is not indicative of future results. See important Reg A disclosures: Masterworks.com/cd

Masterworks’ offerings are filed with the SEC, view all past and current offerings here.

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Show Notes

The Debt Limit Since 2011—Congressional Research Service

7 doomsday scenarios if the U.S. crashes through the debt ceiling by Jeff Stein—The Washington Post

A debt ceiling default would send the U.S. housing market back into a deep freeze by Jeff Tucker—Zillow

Why is federal spending so hard to cut? — Recurring debt ceiling fights will only be solved by budget reform by Linda Bilmes—Brookings

Debt Limit Default Is Default, Even Under a “Prioritization” Scheme by Richard Kogan—Center on Budget and Policy Priorities

Why I Changed My Mind on the Debt Limit by Laurence H. Tribe—The New York Times

The Trillion-Dollar Coin Might Be the Least Bad Option by Annie Lowrey—The Atlantic

If U.S. again risks default, Fed has 'loathsome' playbook by Ann Saphir—Reuters

Related Episodes

169: The Debt Ceiling—What Happens If the U.S. Defaults

416: Your Nation’s National Debt: 5 Things You Need To Know

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Are the Economy and Financial Markets Zero-Sum Games? May 10, 2023

Show notes

Does there need to be a loser for every winner when it comes to investing and economic growth?

Topics covered include:

What are zero-sum games
How trading can be a zero-sum game
Why active management and seeking excess returns through security selections or country weights are zero-sum games
Why the U.S. stock market has outperformed the rest of the world
Why economic growth overall is not a zero-sum game, but some aspects of the economy are zero-sum games

For more information on this episode click here.

Sponsors

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Show Notes

With the Odds on Their Side, They Still Couldn’t Beat the Market by Jeff Sommer—The New York Times

International Diversification—Still Not Crazy after All These Years by Cliff Asness, Antti Ilmanen, and Daniel Villalon—AQR

The (Time-Varying) Importance of Disaster Risk by Ivo Welch—The Financial Analysts' Journal

The Economics of Biodiversity: The Dasgupta Review by Dasgupta P.—GOV.UK

Why the economy is not a zero-sum game: a simple explanation by Nathan Mech—Acton Institute

Defending the Free Market: The Moral Case for a Free Economy by Robert Sirico

Rents: How Marketing Causes Inequality by Gerrit De Geest

The Threat of Rent Extraction in a Resource-constrained Future by Stratford B.—White Rose Research Online

Related Episodes

421: Beware of Survivorship Bias When Investing

426: Which is Best – Active or Passive, ETFs or Funds?

430: How Should Personal and National Wealth Be Measured?

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The Long-term Bullish Case for Gold May 03, 2023

Show notes

Why you should allocate a small percentage of your assets to gold.

Topics covered include:

What is money, and how does gold fit with that definition
Why central banks bought more gold last year than at any time since 1967
Which central banks own the most gold and which are increasing their gold holdings
How fast is the gold supply growing compared to the U.S. dollar money supply
How financialization, greater leverage, and contagion risk should motivate us to consider gold

For more information on this episode click here.

Sponsors

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NetSuite – the leading integrated cloud business software suite

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Show Notes

Central banks load up on gold in response to rising geopolitical tensions by Daria Mosolova—The Financial Times

Above-ground stocks—Gold Hub

Central bank holdings—Gold Hub

Does the Federal Reserve own or hold gold?—The Federal Reserve

Trey Reik—LinkedIn

M2 and Components—FRED

Gold Charts R Us

Related Episodes

37: Gold – Without the Hype and Politics

53: Should You Invest In Bitcoin?

59: Is Gold Money?

263: Should You Invest In Gold?

344: Why Should You Care About Shadow Banking?

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How Should Personal and National Wealth Be Measured? Apr 26, 2023

Show notes

How we measure wealth, riches, abundance, and well-being is more important today than ever.

Topics covered include:

How late 18th century philosophers Adam Smith and the Earl of Lauderdale defined wealth and the role of capital. Why they worried about income inequality and excess profits
What led to the dramatic increase in life expectancy and wealth in the 20th and 21st centuries
How a long life expectancy and well-being can be attained at much lower levels of wealth
Why John Maynard Keynes was right about the expansion of the economy but wrong about how many hours we would work
How the U.S. expanded its wealth relative to the rest of world, and at what cost
Why natural capital should be included in measuring wealth

For more information on this episode click here.

Sponsors

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Brooklinen Use code DAVID20 for $20 off plus free shipping

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Show Notes

An Inquiry into the Nature and Causes of the Wealth of Nations by Adam Smith—Early Modern Texts

About Adam Smith—Adam Smith Institute

An Inquiry Into the Nature and Origin of Public Wealth and Into the Means and Causes of Its Increase by The Earl of Lauderdale—McMaster University

Principles for Dealing with the Changing World Order: Why Nations Succeed and Fail by Ray Dalio—Simon & Schuster

The Economics of Biodiversity: The Dasgupta Review—GOV.UK

Less Is More: How Degrowth Will Save the World by Jason Hickel—Penguin Random House

Economic Possibilities for Our Grandchildren by John Maynard Keynes—Yale

America’s economic outperformance is a marvel to behold—The Economist

How Much is Enough? Money and the Good Life by Robert Skidelsky and Edward Skidelsky—Penguin Random House

Related Episodes

8: What If Everyone Worked Only Four Hours Per Day?

142: Why Are Some Nations Wealthier Than Others?

282: Is GDP the Best Measure of Happiness and Well-Being?

300: Ray Dalio and the Changing World Order

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Which Inflation Protection Strategies Worked and Which Didn't? Apr 19, 2023

Show notes

With a total U.S. inflation rate of 14% in the past two years, we review how various inflation hedges performed over the past twenty-four months.

Topics covered include:

What were investors' and the Federal Reserve's inflation expectations two years ago
What led to the big inflation increase
Why was the Federal Reserve forced to raise its policy rate by almost 5% in a year
How successful were inflation-index bonds, stocks, commodities, and real estate in beating inflation over the past two years
How did two active ETFs that set out to protect against inflation perform
What is the current outlook for inflation, and what should investors do

For more information on this episode click here.

Sponsors

Brooklinen Use code DAVID20 for $20 off plus free shipping

Go to GetSunday.com/David to get a customized lawn plan and 20% off your Sunday Lawn Care order

Insiders Guide Email Newsletter

Get our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletter.

Show Notes

CPI Inflation Calculator—U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics

Inflation Beneficiaries ETF—Horizon Kinetics

Quadratic Capital Management

Investments Mentioned

iShares TIPS Bond ETF (TIP)

Vanguard Short-term Inflation Protection Securities ETF (VTIP)

Invesco DB Commodity Index Tracking Fund (DBC)

Vanguard Total World Stock ETF (VT)

Vanguard Total Stock Market ETF (VTI)

WisdomTree U.S. High Dividend Fund (DHS)

WisdomTree Global High Dividend Fund (DEW)

Horizon Kinetics Inflation Beneficiaries ETF (INFL)

Schwab U.S. REIT ETF (SCHH)

Quadratic Interest Rate Volatility and Inflation Hedge ETF (IVOL)

Related Episodes

336: Own What Is Real

342: Is Another Great Inflation Coming?

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How the Coming Credit Crunch Could Harm the Economy and Real Estate Prices Apr 12, 2023

Show notes

How accelerating bank deposit withdrawals could harm the economy, including real estate prices. How dollars slosh around the financial system but always seem to end up at the Federal Reserve.

Topics covered include:

How many deposits have left banks since the Silicon Valley Bank collapse
How much have banks borrowed from the Federal Reserve to meet deposit withdrawals
Why exiting deposits are harming bank profits and causing them to make fewer loans
How the credit crunch could hurt commercial real estate values
How money market mutual funds differ from banks
How today's banking crisis is similar to the 1980s savings and loans crisis
What should investors do to protect their wealth

For more information on this episode click here.

Sponsors

Masterworks – invest in contemporary art

Use code MONEY10 to get 10% off on your NAPA Autoparts online order.

Insiders Guide Email Newsletter

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Show Notes

Factors Affecting Reserve Balances of Depository Institutions and Condition Statement of Federal Reserve Banks—The Federal Reserve

Assets and Liabilities of Commercial Banks in the United States—The Federal Reserve

All U.S. Banks Net Interest Margin—BankRegData

Current Treasuries and Swap Rates—Chatham Financial

Options trading surges as investors brace themselves for US regional bank volatility by Stephen Gandel and Nicholas Megaw and Colby Smith—The Financial Times

Bank Turmoil Squeezes Borrowers, Raising Fears of a Slowdown by Jeanna Smialek—The New York Times

Banks' Demand for Reserves in the Face of Liquidity Regulations by Jane Ihrig—Federal Reserve Bank of St. Louis

Money Market Funds: Investment Holdings Detail—The Federal Reserve

Deposit Outflows Shine Light on Fed Program That Pays Money-Market Funds by Eric Wallerstein and Nick Timiraos—The Wall Street Journal

ICI Research Perspective: Trends in the Expenses and Fees of Funds, 2022—Investment Company Institute

FAQs: Reverse Repurchase Agreement Operations—Federal Reserve Bank of New York

US Resolution Trust Corporation by Aidan Lawson and Lily Engbith—SSRN

Related Episodes

270: Repo Rates Soared—Here’s Why It Matters

333: How The Covid Shock Nearly Destroyed The Financial System

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Did the Tariffs Work? The Trade War Five Years Later Apr 05, 2023

Show notes

What has been the impact on trade and the trade deficit since the U.S. implemented tariffs on steel, aluminum, and goods made in China?

Topics covered include:

Has the shipping backlog been reduced at U.S. ports
What are the dangers of running too high of a trade deficit
How large is the U.S. trade deficit
What has been the impact of U.S. tariffs on trade, domestic production, and prices
How Chinese direct-to-consumer retail companies Shein and Temu are driving prices of goods ever lower
Why consumers should demand greater visibility on how products they purchase are made

For more information on this episode click here.

Sponsors

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NetSuite – the leading integrated cloud business software suite

Show Notes

The ‘ship backup has ended’ at Los Angeles, Long Beach ports by Alejandra Salgado—Supply Chain Dive

America’s Trade Deficit Surged in 2022, Nearing $1 Trillion by Ana Swanson—The New York Times

Industry study tracks China tariffs’ added costs to importers and consumers by Ben Unglesbee—Supply Chain Dive

Costs of Trade Wars: The Distributional Consequences of US Section 301 Tariffs Against China by Kara M. Reynolds—SSRN

Certain Effects of Section 232 and 301 Tariffs Reduced Imports and Increased Prices and Production in Many U.S. Industries by USITC—United States International Trade Commission

Economic Impact of Section 232 and 301 Tariffs on U.S. Industries by USITC—United States International Trade Commission

The other Chinese apps taking the US and UK by storm by Chelsea Bailey—BBC

Secretive Shein Founders Build $40 Billion Fortune in Rapid Fashion by Venus Feng and Pei Yi Mak—Bloomberg

Shein sets ambitious revenue target ahead of IPO by Rachel Douglass—Fashion United

Shein copycats chase its explosive growth by Eleanor Olcott, Qianer Liu, and Gloria Li—The Financial Times

Temu’s Big Haul by Ella Apostoaie—The Wire China

The High Price of Fast Fashion by Dana Thomas—The Wall Street Journal

Stealing More than Just Designs: Utilizing Environmental Law as a Remedy to Design Piracy by Fast Fashion Brands by Spencer Kluth—SSRN

Shein’s Cotton Tied to Chinese Region Accused of Forced Labor by Sheridan Prasso—Bloomberg

Worn: A People's History of Clothing by Sofi Thanhauser—Penguin Random House

More than ever, our clothes are made of plastic. Just washing them can pollute the oceans. by Brian Resnick—Vox

Related Episodes

212: Trade Wars Increase Prices and Poverty

413: What if the World Stopped Shopping?

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Which is Best - Active or Passive, ETFs or Funds? Mar 27, 2023

Show notes

David has a fascinating discussion with Kristof Gleich about active management, indexing, and how ETFs and mutual funds really work.

Topics covered include:

Should individual investors even try to select active mutual funds
Is there an indexing bubble
Why are there so many new ETFs
Should we be worried about an ETF flash crash
What do ETF market makers and authorized participants do
Do SEC yields for international equity mutual funds and ETFs reflect the impact of dividend withholding taxes

As the president and CIO of Harbor Capital Advisors, Inc. Kristof Gleich oversees all Investment, Distribution & Marketing and Executive Office functions at Harbor. He provides insight while helping lead Harbor’s strategic growth plan.

Previously, Kristof was a managing director and global head of manager selection at JP Morgan Chase & Co. He has a degree in Physics from University of Bristol.

Thanks to NAPA and Sunday Lawn Care for sponsoring the episode.

Use code MONEY10 to get 10% off on your NAPA Autoparts online order.

Go here to GetSunday.com/David to get a customized lawn plan and 20% off your Sunday Lawn Care order

Related Episodes

321: How to Analyze Complex Investments

311: Did ETFs Pass the 2020 Market Collapse Stress Test?

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How Profits Motivate Change Mar 22, 2023

Show notes

"If something is profitable, it will be done," says Martin Wolf of the Financial Times. We explore how profits will drive the energy transition and how and where water from the Colorado River is used.

Topics covered include:

How profits have led to higher energy market share for natural gas and renewal energy
What is hindering a faster transition to renewables
What is contributing to a water shortage in the southwestern U.S,. and how will it be resolved
Why big infrastructure projects often aren't the best solution to solve a problem
Why some regulation is helpful

For more information on this episode click here.

Show Notes

The market can deliver the green transition by Martin Wolf—The Financial Times

Where the Water Goes: Life and Death Along the Colorado River by David Owen—Penguin Random House

Economics may take us to net zero all on its own by John Burn-Murdoch—The Financial Times

The Gregor Letter by Gregor Macdonald—Substack

The Inflation Reduction Act: Here's what's in it—McKinsey & Company

Management of the Colorado River: Water Allocations, Drought, and the Federal Role by Charles V. Stern and Pervaze A. Sheikh—Congressional Research Service

The Supreme Court wrestles with questions over the Navajo Nation's water rights by Becky Sullivan—NPR

As the Colorado River Shrinks, Washington Prepares to Spread the Pain by Christopher Flavelle—The New York Times

Can Western States Agree on the Future of the Colorado River? by Matt Vasilogambros—Pew

A matter of priorities by DeEtte Person—Know Your Water News

Average monthly water prices in the United States as of July 2022, by selected state—Statista

Election to Designate AMA for the Douglas Basin—Arizona Department of Water Resources

Arizona Is in a Race to the Bottom of Its Water Wells, With Saudi Arabia’s Help by Natalie Koch—The New York Times

Arizona gets serious about piping water from Mexico in nonbinding desalination resolution by Brandon Loomis—AZ Central

Episode Sponsor

Money Pickle – Schedule a free 45-minute video chat with a vetted financial advisor and ask them anything about your financial situation. Go here to schedule your free session.

Related Episodes

399: Unintended Consequences Impact Everything

345: Investing in Water

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Are More Bank Runs Coming? The Collapse of Silicon Valley Bank Mar 15, 2023

Show notes

What caused Silicon Valley Bank to collapse in only 44 hours, and how likely will the contagion spread, leading to other bank failures?

Topics covered include:

How losses on bonds blew up SVB's balance sheet
How is Silicon Valley Bank similar and different than other regional banks
What the FDIC and Federal Reserve are trying do to restore confidence and stop bank runs
How a weakening of the Frank-Dodd bank regulation act set the stage for SVB's failure
Why bailing out uninsured depositors is controversial
Three scenarios of what might happen next
Actions we can take to protect ourselves when private money fails

For more information on this episode click here.

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Show Notes

Silicon Valley Bank launches $2.25bn share sale to shore up capital base by Joshua Franklin and Antoine Gara—The Financial Times

US Bank Capital Regulation: History and Changes Since the Financial Crisis by John Walter—Economic Quarterly

SVB's 44-Hour Collapse Was Rooted in Treasury Bets During the Pandemic by Brian Chappatta—Bloomberg

Remarks by FDIC Chairman Martin Gruenberg at the Institute of International Bankers—FDIC

How Silicon Valley Turned on Silicon Valley Bank by Ben Foldy, Rachel Louise Ensign, and Justin Baer—The Wall Street Journal

SEC Filings Details—Silicon Valley Bank

FDIC Creates a Deposit Insurance National Bank of Santa Clara to Protect Insured Depositors of Silicon Valley Bank, Santa Clara, California—FDIC

Uninsured Silicon Valley Bank depositors seek fire sale of assets by Joshua Franklin, Sujeet Indap, Colby Smith, and George Hammond—The Financial Times

Join Statement by Treasury, Federal Reserve, and FDIC—Federal Reserve

FDIC Acts to Protect All Depositors of the former Silicon Bank, Santa Clara, California—FDIC

US regulators are setting a dangerous precedent on SVB by Sheila Bair—The Financial Times

Back-to-Back Bank Collapses Came After Deregulatory Push by David Enrich—The New York Times

Will another bank fall? by Robert Armstrong—The Financial Times

Shares in US regional banks close sharply lower over fears of deposit flight by Jennifer Hughes, James Fontanella-Khan, Ortenca Aliaj, and Brooke Masters—The Financial Times

Charles Schwab shares drop 12% even as the firm defends financial position by Yun Li—CNBC

Related Episodes

405: When Volatility Spikes, Financial Things Break

392: What Is Money and How to Use It

305: Are Banks Safe?

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