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Money For the Rest of Us — Business
Money For the Rest of Us

A personal finance and investing podcast on money, how it works, how to invest it and how to live without worrying about it. J. David Stein is a former Chief Investment Strategist and money manager. For close to two decades, he has been teaching individuals and institutions how to invest and handle their finances in ways that are simple to understand. More info at moneyfortherestofus.com

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Latest Episodes:

Beyond Stocks: The Allure and Strategy of Credit Investments Oct 18, 2023

Show notes

Why investing in non-investment grade bonds, leveraged loans, and preferred stocks is potentially more compelling than investing in common stocks at present.

Topics covered include:

Why Howard Marks told institutional clients to sell stocks and buy high-yield bonds instead
The contractual agreements comprising bonds, leveraged loans, and preferred stock give them an advantage relative to common stocks
How preferred equity exhibits attributes of both bonds and common stocks
What is the expected return and risks for high-yield bonds, leveraged loans, and preferred stock
How do we invest in these three asset types

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Show Notes

Sea Change - Memo by Howard Marks

Further Thoughts on Sea Change - Memo by Howard Marks

Investments Mentioned

SPDR Bloomberg High Yield Bond ETF (JNK)

iShares iBoxx High Yield Corporate Bond ETF (HYG)

Invesco Senior Loan ETF (BKLN)

iShares Preferred Stock ETF (PFF)

Virtus Seix Senior Loan ETF (SEIX)

DoubleLine Flexible Income Fund (DFLEX)

BlackRock Debt Strategies Fund (DSU)

Barings Corporate Investors Fund (MCI)

Related Content

397: How to Invest Based on Cycles

451: How Much Should You Invest in Stocks? The Art of Position Sizing in a Volatile Market

423: A “Safe” 6% Yield: The Case for Investment Grade CLOs

How to Invest in Closed-End Funds

Money for the Rest of Us Closed-End Fund Course

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How Much Should You Invest in Stocks? The Art of Position Sizing in a Volatile Market Oct 11, 2023

Show notes

Our allocation to risky assets should vary based on the expected return, volatility, risk aversion, and how much we can earn risk-free. That means we should be taking less risk right now. Listen to learn why.

Topics covered include:

Why there are so few billionaires
Why the hedge fund Long Term Capital Management imploded
Why how much to invest is more important than where to invest
How the Merton share formula can assist with determining what percent of our wealth to invest in risky assets
Why are expected outcomes so much greater than the median outcome and why it matters to our investing

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Masterworks Disclosure:

“net IRR” refers to the annualized internal rate of return net of all fees and costs, calculated from the offering closing date to the sale date. IRR may not be indicative of Masterworks paintings not yet sold, and past performance is not indicative of future results. See important Reg A disclosures: Masterworks.com/cd

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Show Notes

How to avoid a common investment mistake - Buttonwood - The Economist

The Missing Billionaires: A Guide to Better Financial Decisions by Victor Haghani and James White

Money For the Rest of Us List of Most Influential Books

Charles Feeney, Who Made a Fortune and Then Gave It Away, Dies at 92 - New York Times

Elm Partners Coin Flip Exercise

Evaluating gambles using dynamics - O. Peters and M. Gell-Mann

Related Content

250: Investing Rule One - Avoid Ruin

Why You Should Rebalance Your Portfolio

196: How to Survive Financially

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How Higher Interest Rates Alter Our Financial Blueprint Oct 04, 2023

Show notes

We explore six impacts of higher interest rates on housing, capital projects, stock buybacks, excess returns for stocks, bonds, and other asset classes, and individual opportunity costs.

Topics covered include:

Where current interest rates stand
Central banker predictions for how long cash yields will stay this high
Why housing is the least affordable since the early 1980s
Why new apartment building construction has collapsed
What has been the excess return for stocks, bonds, and other asset classes when interest rates are higher and lower
Why there will be fewer stock buybacks and how that can impact earnings per share
Which alternative investments do better when short-term interest rates are higher
Why financial opportunity costs have increased and how that should impact our investment and other financial decisions.

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Show Notes

Summary of Economic Projections—The Federal Reserve

The Apartment Market Is Hitting a Construction Lull by Will Parker—The Wall Street Journal

30-Year Fixed Rate Mortgage Average in the United States—FRED Economic Data

Americans Are Still Spending Like There’s No Tomorrow by Rachel Wolfe—The Wall Street Journal

Honey, the Fed Shrunk the Equity Premium by Portfolio Solutions Group—AQR

Companies ease off on share buybacks as rising interest rates push up costs by Nicholas Megaw—The Financial Times

Related Episodes

384: Has a Commodities Bull Market Supercycle Started? If So, How Do You Invest in It?

435: Is It Better to Rent or Buy a House?

448: Where Are Interest Rates Headed Next? Insights from the Jackson Hole Symposium

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The House of Cards: Evaluating Economic and Financial Warning Signs Sep 27, 2023

Show notes

What are the economic and financial system early warning signs that we should heed rather than get caught up in fearmongering? When should we start to worry about ballooning budget deficits, the national debt, a currency collapse, or the stock market?

Topics covered include:

Signals to monitor to see if things are falling apart
How much government debt is too much and why interest rates are key
Why central banks don't control the stock market
Why the dollar remains dominant, and what has to change for it to plummet in value

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Show Notes

The Dawn of Everything: A New History of Humanity by David Graeber and David Wengrow—Macmillan

How Much Is Enough? Money and the Good Life by Robert Skidelsky and Edward Skidelsky—Penguin Random House

U.S. National Deficit—Treasury.gov

Budget and Economic Data—Congressional Budget Office

Japan's growing debt mountain: Crisis, what crisis? by Andrew Sharp—Nikkei Asia

The Dollar: The World’s Reserve Currency by Anshu Siripurapu and Noah Berman—Council on Foreign Relations

Currency Composition of Official Foreign Exchange Reserves—International Monetary Fund

Total credit to non-bank borrowers by currency of denomination: US dollar—BIS

Wonking Out: The Mysteries of the Almighty Dollar by Paul Krugman—The New York Times

Revisiting the international role of the US dollar by Bafundi Maronoti—BIS

Related Episodes

404: Why Is the U.S. Dollar So Strong? Will It Continue?

416: Your Nation’s National Debt: 5 Things You Need To Know

433: What Happens If The U.S. Defaults On Its Debt? Here’s Why It Won’t

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Where Are Interest Rates Headed Next? Insights from the Jackson Hole Symposium Sep 20, 2023

Show notes

Why you might want to lock in higher yields now, given real interest rates are the highest they have been in 15 years.

Topics covered include:

What was covered this year at the Federal Reserve Jackson Hole Symposium
What are the primary policy actions central banks take, and how do they influence interest rates
What is the neutral real rate of interest, and why is it important
Why new ideas are central to an increasing standard of living
What would drive interest rates higher or lower from current levels
Why now is an attractive time to lock in longer-term yields

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Show Notes

Jackson Hole Economic Policy Symposium: Structural Shifts in the Global Economy—Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Policymaking in an age of shifts and breaks by Christine Lagarde—European Central Bank

Inflation: Progress and the Path Ahead by Jerome H. Powell—The Federal Reserve Bank

Structural Shifts in the Global Economy: Structural Constraints on Growth by Chad Syverson—Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

The Outlook for Long-Term Economic Growth by Charles I. Jones—Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Living with High Public Debt by Serkan Arslanalp and Barry Eichengreen—Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

Monetary Policy and Innovation by Yueran Ma and Kaspar Zimmermann—Federal Reserve Bank of Kansas City

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Our Car Was Attacked! Is Property Crime Increasing? Sep 13, 2023

Show notes

David shares how thieves recently tried to smash and grab his luggage from his car while he was still inside it. He then explores property crime trends, whether they are increasing or decreasing, and why.

Topic covers include:

How thieves have stolen luggage from the same gas station multiple times per day
What have property crime rates been in the U.S. over the past few decades and since the end of the pandemic
What are reasons property crime rises and falls
What is inventory shrink and how is it impacting retailers
What can we do to reduce the risk of being a crime victim

Show Notes

Chevron Oakland Hegenberger Rd—Yelp

Myths and Realities: Understanding Recent Trends in Violent Crime by Ames Grawert and Noah Kim—Brennan Center for Justice

Reported property crime rate in the United States from 1990 to 2021—Statista

Pandemic, Social Unrest, and Crime in U.S. Cities: Year-End 2022 Update—Council on Criminal Justice

CATALYTIC CONVERTER THEFTS NATIONWIDE SURGE ACCORDING TO NEW REPORT—Cision PR Newswire

What the data says (and doesn’t say) about crime in the United States by John Gramlich—Pew Research Center

Oakland’s crime rates are surging. Here’s how they compare with S.F. and other Bay Area cities by Susie Neilson—San Francisco Chronicle

OAKLAND NAACP CALLS ON POLITICIANS TO CRACK DOWN ON CRIMINALS—California Policy Center

Money under the mattress: economic crisis and crime by Eleni Kyrkopoulou, Alexandros Louka, and Kristin Fabbe—SSRN

What Caused the Crime Decline? by Lauren-Brooke Eisen—Brennan Center for Justice

What’s Behind All This ‘Shrink’? by Jordyn Holman—The New York Times

Retail Theft Costs US Merchants Like Walmart and Target $100 Billion a Year—PYMNTS

Retailers battle nearly $100 billion in shrink by Jason Straczewski—National Retail Federation

2022 Retail Security Survey—National Retail Federation

US Retail Workers Are Fed Up and Quitting at Record Rates by Devin Leonard and Diana Bravo—Bloomberg

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Die With Zero: Why You Should Start Spending Now Sep 06, 2023

Show notes

How to balance saving, investing, and spending for a fulfilling life. Why you will probably reach your peak net worth sooner than you think and should start drawing down your nest egg earlier. Why we can't optimize for a fulfilling life but can still have one.

Topics covered include:

How to estimate how much to spend from your retirement assets so you die with zero
What is time bucketing and why it doesn't work for everyone
How to balance the fear of making a change with the fear of missing out
The difference between making deliberate choices and maximizing our experiences

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Show Notes

Die with Zero: Getting All You Can with Your Money and Your Life by Bill Perkins

The Pathless Path: Imaging a New Story for Work and Life by Paul Millerd

Four Thousand Weeks: Time Management for Mortals by Oliver Burkeman

Anderson Cooper Is Still Learning to Live With Loss by David Marchese—The New York Times

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Bond Investing Masterclass Bonus Episode Aug 30, 2023

Show notes

Three additional insights to help you confidently invest in fixed income. First, what are the different measures of bond yields, and which is best? Second, how to estimate the return for a bond ETF or fund and how long do you have to own it to achieve that annualized return? Finally, we explore a bond type that yields more than U.S. Treasuries, has never defaulted, and has the implicit guarantee of the U.S. government.

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From Boom to Bust: Why China's Stocks Lagged Behind Its Economy and Where to Invest Next Aug 23, 2023

Show notes

How badly has China's stock market performed except for one remarkable decade
What are the economic and governance factors that contributed to the underperformance
Why it's too soon to write off China despite the structural headwinds
What are the factors that contribute to economic growth and a robust stock market, and which emerging market countries display those factors
What are some ETFs to invest in countries with favorable economic tailwinds

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Show Notes

State-Owned Enterprises Going Public: The Case of China by Xiaozu Wang, et al.—SSRN

A Model of China's State Capitalism by Xi Li, et al.—SSRN

Has China given up on state-owned enterprise reform? by Nicholas Borst—The Interpreter

China Regulator’s New Slogan Fuels Buying Spree in State Firms by Bloomberg News—Bloomberg

Investors sour on Beijing’s bid to boost state-owned enterprises by Sun Yu—The Financial Times

China’s 40-Year Boom Is Over. What Comes Next? by Lingling Wei and Stella Yifan Xie—The Wall Street Journal

What just happened: Storm clouds loom for China’s economy by Sebastian Mallaby, et al.—The Washington Post

Imminent end of ‘demographic dividend’: Share of India’s working age population set to fall by 2036 by Tca Sharad Raghavan—The Print

What’s Holding Back India’s Economic Ambitions? by Shan Li and Vibhuti Agarwal—The Wall Street Journal

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Natural Disasters: Are They Truly Increasing? Aug 16, 2023

Show notes

From raging wildfires to devastating floods, how are these natural events reshaping our financial landscape? What if anything, should we be doing with our investments as a result?

Topics covered include:

The devastating Maui wildfire: What are the factors that led to one of the deadliest wildfires in US history.
Global wildfire trends: Are they really increasing? The data might surprise you.
The role of insurance companies: Learn how the giants of the reinsurance world, like Swiss Re and Munich Re, are navigating the increasing number of natural disasters.
The complex interplay of climate change, urban expansion, and human choices
Why IPCC is not highly confident regarding some weather impacts of climate change due to the natural variability in weather patterns.
What should individuals do when there is a lack of details regarding a long-term potential threat?

Sponsors

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Masterworks – invest in contemporary art

Masterworks Disclosure:

“net IRR” refers to the annualized internal rate of return net of all fees and costs, calculated from the offering closing date to the sale date. IRR may not be indicative of Masterworks paintings not yet sold, and past performance is not indicative of future results. See important Reg A disclosures: Masterworks.com/cd

Insiders Guide Email Newsletter

Get our free Investors' Checklist when you sign up for the free Money for the Rest of Us email newsletter.

Show Notes

Why the fires in Hawaii have been so bad—The Economist

CAMS: monitoring extreme wildfire emissions in 2022—Copernicus

A human-driven decline in global burned area by N. Andela et al.—Science

Seasonal Trend for Europe—Copernicus

Insurers rack up $50bn in losses from natural catastrophes this year by Ian Smith—The Financial Times

World insurance market developments in 5 charts—Swiss Re Institute

When Disaster Strikes: Preparing for Climate Change by Seán Nolan and Krishna Srinivasan—IMF

California insurance market rattled by withdrawal of major companies by Michael R. Blood—AP

Rising Temperatures Are Wreaking Havoc Year-Round by Zahra Hirji, Rachael Dottle, and Denise Lu—Bloomberg

Climate Change Information for Regional Impact and for Risk Assessment by Roshanka Ranasinghe, et al.—IPCC

The Science Before Science

CO2 emissions (metric tons per capita)—The World Bank

Related Episodes

340: Climate Change, ESG, and What Should Investors Do?

413: What if the World Stopped Shopping?

442: Crisis-Proof Investing: Strategies for a Shaky Future

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