Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Latest Episodes:

Market Tumbles On Rosy Jobs Data | Jack & Max Break-Down Non-Farm Payroll (NFP) Sell-Off and Current Macro Regime Jan 10, 2025

Show notes

Jack Farley and Max Wiethe of the Monetary Matters network break down the sell-off in stocks after a strong December jobs report and hot inflation expectations reading surprises markets. Recorded afternoon of January 10.

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Philadelphia Fed work on early : https://www.philadelphiafed.org/-/media/frbp/assets/economy/articles/economic-insights/2022/q3-q4/eiq3q422_rs-measuring-state-employment.pdf

https://www.philadelphiafed.org/surveys-and-data/regional-economic-analysis/early-benchmark-revisions

Bloomberg Opinion piece on Equity Risk Premia:

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-01-10/who-s-afraid-of-rising-treasury-yields-not-stocks?srnd=opinion

S&P 500 to 15,000? | Mel Mattison on Bretton Woods 2.0, Revaluation of Gold, and Why He Expects A Violent Stock Market Correction In Early 2025 Jan 09, 2025

Show notes

Mel Mattison, investor, monetary theorist, and former fintech executive, joins Monetary Matters to share how he’s thinking about the next few years for the financial system. Stunned that Mel’s “6,000 by year-end 2024” prediction actually happened, Jack asks Mel why he now expects a violent correction in early 2025 while at the same time extending his S&P 500 forecast to the stunningly high 15,000 level by the end of 2028. They also discuss Bretton Woods 2.0, incoming Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent, potential revaluation of gold, and several advanced monetary topics. Recorded December 30, 2024.

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Mel Mattison’s website https://www.melmattison.com/

Mel Mattison’s book “Quoz”: https://www.melmattison.com/quoz

The Last Mutual Fund Manager Standing | How Eric Crittenden Defied the ETF Boom to Build a $1B Fund Jan 07, 2025

Show notes

When was the last time you heard about an exciting new mutual fund launch? It’s probably been a while. Despite ETFs, hedge funds, and burgeoning asset classes like private credit taking all the headlines, mutual funds still control over $20 trillion in AUM. So, how does one raise assets in the 2020s with a product many associate with a time gone by? Eric Crittenden, CIO and Founder of Stand Point Asset Management, joins OPM to share how his mutual fund has done just that and reached over $1 billion in AUM in less than 5 years.

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Mothballing the Basel III Endgame | The Future of US Bank Regulation with Jason Cave Jan 05, 2025

Show notes

Jason Cave, Senior Consultant at Potomak Global Partners, has over 30 years in bank and financial regulatory experience having worked at both the FDIC and FHFA. In this interview, Cave explains why he’s expecting a much better environment for banks of all sizes in the new regulatory regime under Trump. He discusses why he thinks the FDIC will finally open up bank M&A, the Basel III Endgame will be at least paused, and what he thinks of the future of Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac.

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Citrini’s Top 25 Trades For 2025 Dec 31, 2024

Show notes

Citrini just raised the price of Citrini Research by 25%. Monetary Matters listeners can get access to the LOWER 2024 pricing with this link (offer expires February 15):

https://www.citriniresearch.com/subscribe?coupon=d11a5439

The cross-asset thematic investor known only as Citrini returns to Monetary Matters. James reflects on his trades of 2024 in his “Citrindex” which was up 65% in 202 (January 1, 2024 to December 23, 2024). Citrini shares excerpts from his “25 trades for 2025” piece at Citrini Research, covering everything from homebuilders, to drones, to Ukraine normalization trades and power capacitors. Recorded Christmas Eve December 24, 2024.

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Dr. Darrell Duffie on Liquidity Strains at Year-End/Quarter-End and When Fed Reserves Will No Longer Be Ample Dec 29, 2024

Show notes

With the end of year approaching and SOFR/IOR spreads widening, Darrell Duffie, renowned and prolific monetary scholar, joins Monetary Matters to share his views on why liquidity strains often appear at quarter- and year-end. Duffie explains his work on the September 2019 repo blowout and shares his findings that timing of bank payments is a better predictor of SOFR/IOR stress than the SOFR/IOR spread itself. Duffie also shares his views on debt-to-GDP levels, the theory that the Treasury has engaged in “stealth QE,” and the impact of SOFR transition on bank funding costs. Recorded on December 27, 2024.

Duffie Piece On Reserves Discussed For Most Of Interview (“Reserves Were Not So Ample After All”): https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr974

Duffie Piece on SOFR vs. LIBOR impact on bank debt-overhang cost (discussed at end, “Bank Funding Risk, Reference Rates, and Credit Supply”): https://www.newyorkfed.org/research/staff_reports/sr1042

Darrell Duffie’s website https://www.darrellduffie.com/

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The Research to AUM Pipeline | Warren Pies on Raising $450m in an ETF in Less Than 6 Months Dec 26, 2024

Show notes

Having raised over $450m in less than 6 months, Warren Pies, Founder of 3Fourteen Research and Portfolio Manager of $FCTE, has had one of the most successful independent ETF launches of all time. Despite the seemingly overnight success of his fund management business, the real story is about the steady growth of his research business that feeds into everything they do. He explains how his research business has become a pipeline of investor interest in his ETF business and how research relationships flip the traditional client interaction on its head. He also discusses why he chose to focus on setting good expectations with reasonable clients rather than playing the flashy retail newsletter game.

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From "Everything Bubble" To "Everything Bust"? Michael Howell on Liquidity In 2025 & Beyond Dec 23, 2024

Show notes

Today’s episode is brought to you by the Teucrium Wheat Fund. War, weather, inflation—even monetary policy—drive wheat prices. See disclaimers below. Explore the opportunities at: https://bit.ly/Teucrium

Michael Howell of Crossborder Capital joins Jack on Monetary Matters to share his outlook on global liquidity from three sources: central banks, cross border flows, and the private sector. Howell expects the liquidity cycle to peak in late 2025 / early 2026 and says "enjoy the party but dance near the door." Recorded on December 19, 2024.

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Follow Michael Howell (CrossBorder Capital) on Twitter https://x.com/crossbordercap

CrossBorder’s Website: https://www.crossbordercapital.com/

“Capital Wars” Substack: https://capitalwars.substack.com/

“Capital Wars” the book: https://www.amazon.com/Capital-Wars-Rise-Global-Liquidity/dp/3030392872

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96

___

Disclaimers for Teucrium sponsorship:

This material must be preceded or accompanied by a prospectus. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. To obtain a current prospectus visit www.teucrium.com. The Teucrium Wheat Fund is a commodity pool regulated by the Commodity Futures Trading Commission and is not a mutual fund registered under the Investment Company Act of 1940 and is not subject to regulation under such Act. Commodities and futures generally are volatile and are not suitable for all investors.

Futures investing is highly speculative and involves a high degree of risk. An investor may lose all or substantially all of an investment in the Fund. Investing in commodity interest subject the Fund to the risk of its related industry. Brokerage commissions and exchange-traded fund expenses will reduce returns.

Teucrium Trading, LLC serves as the Sponsor of the Teucrium Wheat Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is the Marketing Agent for the Fund, and is not affiliated with Teucrium Trading, LLC, or any of its affiliates.

U.S. Recession To Be Revealed By January 2025 “Data Bomb” | Danielle DiMartino Booth Dec 19, 2024

Show notes

Danielle DiMartino Booth, CEO & Chief Strategist of QI Research, joins Monetary Matters to share her views on the December Federal Reserve FOMC meeting and her outlook on markets and the U.S. economy in 2025. DiMartino doubles down on her call that the U.S. economy is already in a recession, and explains why she thinks on January 29 2025 will be the day that the true weakness of the job market will be revealed. Recorded on December 19, 2024.

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QI Research: https://quillintelligence.com/

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Jack Farley & Max Wiethe on Fed Hawkishness & Steep Stock Market Sell-off Dec 18, 2024

Show notes

Jack welcomes Max Wiethe, business partner and host of Other People’s Money podcast, to break down December’s Federal Reserve meeting. Jack shares why he bought puts prior to the Fed’s meeting and his views for the market after its steep sell-off of nearly 3%. Max and Jack debate to what extent the monetary policy is hawkish, the bull case for the dollar, and how many cuts (if any) the Fed will do in 2025. Recorded just after the FOMC meeting on December 18, 2024.

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