Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

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Russell Clark on Inverting the Long Short Hedge Fund Model and Battling Investors' Biggest Risks Jan 30, 2025

Show notes

Former fund manager and short seller Russell Clark has always believed that the key to adding value for investors is to solve for the biggest risks in their portfolios. He also argues it’s the key to successfully raising hedge fund assets. In this interview, Clark discusses the biggest risks he thinks investors face right now, why these risks have him considering relaunching his hedge fund after returning capital in 2021, and why if he does relaunch, he’s inverting the long short hedge fund model.

You can read Russell's Substack here: https://www.russell-clark.com

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January Fed Meeting Breakdown | Jack Farley & Max Wiethe on Powell, Banks, and China's AI Race Jan 29, 2025

Show notes

Federal Reserve chair Jerome Powell updated investors on the key factors driving interest rate policy at the same time as another perhaps even bigger factor, the future of AI, is rocking markets. Jack & Max breakdown Powell’s press conference, the data points to watch, and the AI elephant in the room.

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Tariffs Could Blow Up the Bond Market | Mark Zandi on the Biggest Risk to the Economy Jan 28, 2025

Show notes

Mark Zandi, Chief Economist for Moody’s Analytics, joins monetary matters to discuss his outlook for the US economy and why he thinks higher yields driven by broad based tariffs are the biggest risk to the US economy. Despite the economic strength he still sees he believes recession risk is elevated, and this risk is being driven primarily by policy uncertainty. He also discusses the GSEs, Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac, and why he thinks most paths to exiting conservatorship create a lot of pain for the mortgage market.

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Listen to Mark’s Podcast “Inside Economics”: https://www.moodys.com/web/en/us/about/insights/podcasts/moodys-talks-inside-economics.html

How Micro Informs The Macro | David Steinberg on Scott Bessent, Pet Investing, Semiconductors, Music Publishing, and Peter Lake Jan 26, 2025

Show notes

David Steinberg, founder and chief investment officer of Marlowe Partners, joins Jack for a very special episode of Monetary Matters. Steinberg recounts what he learned working for Soros and Scott Bessent at Quantum, and how he developed his investment style of high concentration in single-name equities. David and Jack talk Humanization of Pets, semis, music publishing, and David’s secret pastime which he reveals for the first time on this program. Recorded on January 23, 2025.

Peter Lake philosophy: https://www.peterlake.com/philosophy-of-music

Peter Lake on Spotify: https://open.spotify.com/artist/2LO6MZ0w06BnfgIfoJHIe6

Peter Lake on YouTube: https://www.youtube.com/@PeterLakeMusic

Marlowe Partners: https://marlowepartners.com/

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Why Chinese Bond Yields Have Collapsed | Louis Vincent Gave’s Bull Case For Chinese Stocks and Chinese Property Bonds Jan 22, 2025

Show notes

This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about VanEck Uranium & Nuclear ETF: http://vaneck.com/NLRJack

Louis Vincent Gave, Founding Partner & Chief Executive Officer at Gavekal, joins Monetary Matters to share his perspective on China in 2025 and beyond. Recorded on January 20, 2025.

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Arthur Kroeber book, “China's Economy: What Everyone Needs to Know”: https://www.amazon.com/Chinas-Economy-Everyone-Needs-Know%C2%AE/dp/0190239034

Louis Vincent Gave’s book, “Avoiding the Punch: Investing in Uncertain Times”: https://www.amazon.com/Avoiding-Punch-Investing-Uncertain-Times-ebook/dp/B09VHDBXYL/ref=sr_1_7?dib=eyJ2IjoiMSJ9.W_PznDbWJKTl-zd_BOIBZNrHLa30eAYoCsZGe1ZpZwRhjIip7Xd8SpCuG-DD3aQbL5eMVpAPzCxO34wzVfJLqNyukXrF4ZKT-K_L6rUFfas.Uiti9KCVO588GfCFlmEf0BbhZ2deqYObl4DW-bw2l_A&dib_tag=se&qid=1737553285&refinements=p_27%3ALouis-Vincent+Gave&s=books&sr=1-7

Trading Skill Isn’t Enough to Run a Hedge Fund | Benn Eifert of QVR Advisors Jan 21, 2025

Show notes

Almost everyone who works in finance dreams of one day showcasing their trading or investing prowess by starting their own hedge fund, but being a good trader is only one line item in a long list of skills required to be a successful hedge fund manager. Benn Eifert, Managing Partner of QVR Advisors, who himself has built his firm into one that manages $2 billion in assets, discusses the important interpersonal skills, operational considerations, and marketing duties that also fall squarely on the shoulders of the founding portfolio manager. Eifert also touches on why pod shops have been so dominant in attracting both assets and talent, his outlook for single managers and the hedge fund industry, and the growth of listed fund products using options and other derivatives.

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Will the Risk On Party Continue? | Chris Carrano on The Quantitative Factors Driving Markets Jan 19, 2025

Show notes

There are always many narratives about what drives markets higher or lower but increasingly investors are turning to quantitative measures like style factors to decouple the signal from the noise and pinpoint what is actually behind major market moves. In this interview, Chris Carrano VP of Strategic Research at Venn by Two Sigma breaks down the orthogonal market factors that drove asset prices in 2024 and what is driving them so far in 2025. He also examines key moments like the post Trump rally in November, December’s equity market wobble post FOMC, and the recent reaction to cooling CPI data. Filmed on January 17, 2025.

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Read the Venn by Two Sigma Blog: https://www.venn.twosigma.com/insights

Luke Gromen: Foreigners To Dump Bonds If U.S. Dollar Continues To Strengthen Jan 15, 2025

Show notes

This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about VanEck Uranium & Nuclear ETF: http://vaneck.com/NLRJack

Investing involves substantial risk and high volatility, including possible loss of principal. Visit vaneck.com or call 800.826.2333 to read and consider the prospectus, containing the investment objective, risks, and fees of the fund. Carefully read before investing.

Luke Gromen, Founder & President, Forest for the Trees (FFTT), joins Monetary Matters to share his thoughts on the rapidly selling off Treasury market and strong U.S. Dollar. Recorded on January 13, 2025.

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Why Hedge Fund Managers Must Adapt or Die | Kyle Mowery on The Future of Small Cap Value Jan 14, 2025

Show notes

If you weren’t in large and often expensive technology stocks you likely struggled as a hedge fund manager in 2024. For small/mid-cap value investors like Kyle Mowery, Portfolio Manager and Founder of Grizzly Rock Capital, who’ve sold their investors a mandate that makes it nearly impossible to go buy the NVIDIAs of the world you can only fall back on communication and the clear expectations you’ve set with your investors. The problems plaguing small cap value managers are not new though, and if you are still practicing what Mowery calls “the old ways,” 2024 was likely not the first tough year you’ve had to explain. Here, Mowery explains how he’s adjusted his strategy over 13 years of existence to adapt to changing market structure, why he thinks of you have skills joining a pod is better than starting your own fund, and things he would do differently if he was setting up Grizzly Rock in 2025.

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Find more on Grizzly Rock Capital here: https://www.grizzlyrockcapital.com/

How The Treasury Decides Where To Borrow | Steve Hou on Maturity Issuance Policies of U.S. Treasury and Equity Index Construction Jan 13, 2025

Show notes

Steve Hou, Researcher at Bloomberg Indices, joins Monetary Matters to share his work on Treasury Issuance patterns and equity index construction. Hou explains that “the supply effect” (i.e. the degree to which issuance of long-term bonds rises bond yields is related to stock/bond correlation). He shares several findings from his work on indices related to pricing power, research and development (R&D), and other factors, and at the end he offers his macro views on bond yields and the increasingly concentrated stock market. Recorded on January 7, 2025.

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Chapter 1 of Steve’s dissertation (“When is the supply effect large in the government bond market?”): https://finance.unibocconi.eu/sites/default/files/files/media/attachments/SteveHou_JMP20180115111812.pdf

Steve’s work on the innovation factor (R&D): https://t.co/VSSpiUExWL

Steve’s work on pricing power: https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/insights/financial-services/cracking-the-code-of-pricing-power/

Work on Analyst ratings upgrades: https://www.bloomberg.com/professional/insights/trading/analyst-ratings-improvers-a-bet-on-turnaround-companies/