Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Latest Episodes:

“This Is A Frothy Bubble” | Rob Arnott on Excessive Valuations, AI, and Reinventing Cap-Weighted Indexing Sep 15, 2025

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This episode of Monetary Matters is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHJack

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): http://vaneck.com/SMHXJack

Rob Arnott, founder and chairman of the board of Research Affiliates, joins Jack today for an in-depth conversation on AI, bubbles, asset allocation, weighting in index funds, and other topics. The record heights of today’s markets brought on from excitement in the AI industry remind many of the dotcom bubble, which Rob examines using his decades of experience in the finance industry. With how fast everything moves in these turbulent times, this is one episode a dedicated observers cannot miss. Recorded on September 5th, 2025.

Research Papers discussed:“RACWI: Reinventing Cap-Weighted Indexing”: https://www.researchaffiliates.com/publications/articles/1095-racwi-reinventing-cap-weighted-indexing

“The AI Boom vs. the Dot-Com Bubble: Have We Seen This Movie Before?”: https://www.researchaffiliates.com/publications/articles/1038-ai-boom-dot-com-bubble-seen-this-before

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Why 900,000+ Jobs Just Got Penciled In To Disappear | Anna Wong & Danielle DiMartino Booth on -911k Non-farm Payroll Revision, Unemployment Rate, and Immigration’s Impact on Labor Market Sep 12, 2025

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Today's episode is brought to you by Teucrium. Learn more at: https://bit.ly/4gfI0fe

Jack welcomes QI Research’s Danielle DiMartino Booth and Bloomberg Economics’ Chief U.S. Economist Anna Wong to interpret the Bureau of Labor Statistics’ (BLS) recent preliminary 911,000 downward revision to non-farm payrolls. Recorded September 11, 2025.

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Why Bonds Still Suck | Aahan Menon of Prometheus Macro on Immigration’s Impact on Lower Job Numbers, Technology CapEx, Business Expansion, Manufacturing Green Shoots, and More Sep 11, 2025

Show notes

This episode of Monetary Matters is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHJack

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): http://vaneck.com/SMHXJack

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Aahan Menon of Prometheus Macro returns to Monetary Matters to explain why he still thinks bonds offer a poor risk/reward relative to stocks. He argues that job market weakness is the result of reduced immigration, in other words, weak supply of labor rather than weak demand for labor. Recorded on September 4, 2025.

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Concentrated Investing in Small Caps at the Intersection of Change, Crisis, & Controversy | Stoic Point Capital Management Sep 09, 2025

Show notes

This episode is brought to you by Fundamental Edge. Learn more about their new AI Academy for buyside professionals: https://www.fundamentedge.com/ai-academy

Raj Shah and Cullen Rose of Stoic Point Capital Management join OPM for a specials double episode. In the first half we explore their view that we may be in for a repeat of the 2020 to 2021 new issuance cycle and how some of their favorite opportunities are still orphaned securities from that last cycle. They explain why small caps undergoing change events like new issuance or that are misunderstood due to crisis & controversy are their favorite as concentrated small cap investors.

Make sure to check out the OPM classic episode we recorded with Stoic Point Capital Management over on the main Other People's Money podcast feed.

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The Era of AI Semiconductor CapEx | Angus Shillington & Nick Frasse (Fireside Chat) Sep 07, 2025

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This episode of Monetary Matters is a Sponsored Fireside Chat brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHJack

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): http://vaneck.com/SMHXJack

The AI revolution has spurred a growth in capital expenditure on semiconductors the scale of which the world has never seen before. Today Jack explores this phenomenon in a sponsored Fireside Chat with VanEck’s Angus Shillington and Nick Frasse. Shillington, lead semiconductor analyst and deputy portfolio manager, argues CapEx on semiconductors is increasing so much because cloud computing hyperscalers are unable to keep up with demand, and they feel pressure from their competitors. In addition, the expenditure is being spent by the most profitable companies on earth such as Microsoft and Alphabet (Google). Frasse, a product manager covering thematic suite of ETFs, including $SMH and $SMHX, makes the case that AI is more akin to the industrial revolution than it is to the internet.

The trio discuss why and how the VanEck Semiconductor ETF ($SMH) has outperformed a competitor (letting the winners win), and the newer VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF ($SMHX) which gives exposure to fabless semi companies that are powering the AI revolution.

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How AI Tools Are Rapidly Disrupting the Investment Industry | Brett Caughran & David Plon Sep 03, 2025

Show notes

Learn more about the new AI Academy from Fundamental Edge: https://www.fundamentedge.com/ai-academy

There’s no shortage of speculation about how AI will reshape the workforce, but one area where no speculation is needed is the investment industry. AI is already rapidly disrupting the way investment professionals conduct fundamental equity research and shifting the competitive landscape for fund managers and talent alike. In this interview with Brett Caughran, founder of buyside training academy Fundamental Edge, and David Plon, co-founder and CEO of AI powered investment research platform Portrait Analytics join OPM to discuss the areas of the investment process where AI can already make an impact, the pitfalls and weaknesses of AI in its current state, how this is changing the job description for both portfolio managers and analysts, and the surprising reality that the first movers of AI adoption

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Timestamps

00:00 Intro

01:25 The Rapid Pace of AI Advancements

07:15 How to Start Adding AI to Your Process

15:00 Thesis Monitoring and the Next Frontiers of AI Investment Research

18:45 Current Level of AI Adoption and First Movers in the Hedge Fund World

23:19 Importance of Clearly Defining Your Investment Process Before Adding AI

26:35 The Role of Specialty Investment Tools

29:49 Custom vs Off-The-Shelf Solutions

38:16 Thoughtful AI Prompting is Key

44:01 Biggest AI Pitfalls to Avoid

48:52 How Has AI Shifted the Competitive Landscape?

54:43 AI Investing Bootcamp

Non-Bank Leverage & Financial Stability | Financial Stability Board General Secretary John Schindler Aug 31, 2025

Show notes

This episode of Monetary Matters is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHJack

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): http://vaneck.com/SMHXJack

John Schindler, General Secretary of the Financial Stability Board (FSB), joins Monetary Matters to discuss the rise of non-bank financial intermediation (NBFI), sometimes referred to as “shadow banking.” There are signs that NBFI leverage is growing and NBFI data is not as transparent or available as in the traditional banking system, and these two forces may pose financial stability risks. Schindler shares the FSB’s recommendations for how to ameliorate these potential risks.

From the FSB: The Financial Stability Board (FSB) coordinates at the international level the work of national financial authorities and international standard-setting bodies in order to develop and promote the implementation of effective regulatory, supervisory and other financial sector policies. Its mandate is set out in the FSB Charter, which governs the policymaking and related activities of the FSB.

Reports and recommendations:

Final FSB Report on NBFI Leverage (web link):

https://www.fsb.org/2025/07/leverage-in-nonbank-financial-intermediation-final-report/

Final FSB Report on NBFI Leverage (pdf): https://www.fsb.org/uploads/P090725-1.pdf

Scihndler’s Eurofi speech: https://www.fsb.org/2024/09/building-bridges-the-case-for-better-data-and-coordination-for-the-non-bank-sector/

Global Monitoring Report on Non-Bank Financial Intermediation 2024: https://www.fsb.org/2024/12/global-monitoring-report-on-non-bank-financial-intermediation-2024/

2021 Report on Money Market Resilience: https://www.fsb.org/2021/10/policy-proposals-to-enhance-money-market-fund-resilience-final-report/

Revised Policy Recommendations to Address Structural Vulnerabilities from Liquidity Mismatch in Open-Ended Funds: https://www.fsb.org/2023/12/revised-policy-recommendations-to-address-structural-vulnerabilities-from-liquidity-mismatch-in-open-ended-funds/

Liquidity Preparedness for Margin and Collateral Calls: Final report: “https://www.fsb.org/2024/12/liquidity-preparedness-for-margin-and-collateral-calls-final-report/”

“High-level Recommendations for the Regulation, Supervision and Oversight of Global Stablecoin Arrangements: Final report”: https://www.fsb.org/2023/07/high-level-recommendations-for-the-regulation-supervision-and-oversight-of-global-stablecoin-arrangements-final-report/

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Climbing the Hedge Fund Ladder: From Analyst to Hedge Fund Founder Aug 27, 2025

Show notes

This episode is brought to you by Fundamental Edge, the leaders in buyside analyst training. Reserve your spot in their new AI Academy: https://www.fundamentedge.com/ai-academy

In the online community of FinTwit it is extremely common for hedge funders to have anonymous profiles because of strict regulations, but not all these anonymous profiles are made equal. @hfreflection is one of the most insightful anonymous members of the FinTwit community, especially when it comes to the business and industry of hedge funds. In this interview (while maintaining anonymity) HF reveals key aspects of his path to success and shares the insights he picked up on his journey from analyst to eventually launching his own firm after a long stint at a multi-billion dollar long/short equity manager. He touches on the hard decisions people face at different stages, whether you are a young professional trying to break into the industry, a mid-career analyst trying to find the right seat, or a seasoned professional deciding whether staying put or launching your own fund is the right path forward.

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“Potemkin Village of Credit” | BankRegData’s Bill Moreland on Banks’ Loan Modification Morass & Note-on-Note Financing Spree Aug 26, 2025

Show notes

This episode of Monetary Matters is brought to you by VanEck.

Learn more about the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH): http://vaneck.com/SMHJack

Learn more about the VanEck Fabless Semiconductor ETF (SMHX): http://vaneck.com/SMHXJack

Bill Moreland of BankRegData joins Jack to share how many banks’ extensive use of loan modifications have caused reported delinquencies to appear lower than they might otherwise have been. While Moreland acknowledges that modifications play a vital role in securing repayment, he maintains that their popularity over the past 3 years indicates it is unusual and that some banks may be “manipulating the shit out of” the data. Moreland tells Jack about note-on-note financing - a practice wherein a bank sells a loan to a buyer and lends that buyer the funds to buy it - is further used to hide losses within bank balance sheets. Recorded on August 19, 2025.More info about BankRegData: https://www.bankregdata.com/main.asp

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Breaking Down Powell’s Jackson Hole Speech, September Rate Cut Odds, and Chinese Consumer Lending FinTech’s | Jack & Max Aug 22, 2025

Show notes

This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by Fiscal.ai. Sign up for a 2-week free trial and get 15% off any paid tier at: http://fiscal.ai/mm

Jack Farley & Max Wiethe break down Jerome Powell’s Jackson Hole speech that markets have interpreted as signaling rate cuts are coming in September, the Fed’s long-term reassessment of their policy framework for combatting inflation and maintaining full employment, and Chinese consumer lending fintech companies that Jack is bullish on.

Fed Statements on Longer-Run Goals and Monetary Policy Strategy Updated August 2025: https://www.federalreserve.gov/monetarypolicy/monetary-policy-strategy-tools-and-communications-statement-on-longer-run-goals-monetary-policy-strategy-2025.htm

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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

00:34 Fiscal.ai Front Roll

00:53 Jerome Powell Signals Rate Cuts?

06:35 The Fed’s View of the Labor Market

07:41 Updating the Fed’s Policy Framework