Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

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Venture Capital’s Collision with Public Markets, the Dry Powder Bubble, and VC Metrics that Lie | James Wang of Creative Ventures Nov 25, 2025

Show notes

This Other People’s Money episode is brought to you by CAIA.nxt. Learn more about their alternatives education courses for investment advisors and get 10% off with code MMTEN: https://caia.org/content/welcome-monetary-matters-and-other-peoples-money-listeners

James Wang, General Partner at Creative Ventures and author of “What You Need to Know About AI” joins Other People’s Money to discuss the most pressing issues facing venture capital right now including: VC’s collision with public markets, the “RIAifaction” of VC firms, and the reality that there is still too much dry powder propping up venture valuations. Wang also discusses the difficulty of judging VC funds off of typical metrics like MOIC and TVPI, especially when the fund is still in the middle of its life cycle. Wang closes the podcast with his views on AI as expressed in his new book and the reasons why he believes many are being distracted by first-order effects.

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Timestamps

00:00 Intro

01:22 The Collision of Public and Private Markets

04:13 Venture Capital is Following the Same Path as Other Asset Classes

05:52 Venture's Shifting Role in Portfolios

13:36 Venture Capital Emerging Managers

18:39 Corporate Venture Capital

20:58 The Most Active Venture LPs

22:45 Sovereign Wealth Funds and Strategic Venture

26:56 RIAs and Private Wealth as the Next Source of Capital

31:58 The Emergence of Star Athletes and Actors as VCs

33:41 Most VCs Don't Add Value to Portfolio Companies

35:31 Comparing VC Funds: The Metrics That Lie

43:32 Sneaky VC Marketing Tricks and Marketing Materials

48:33 Reference Checks and Speaking with Founders

50:17 The Dry Powder Bubble

57:41 What You Need to Know About AI

59:47 Tracking AI Progress

01:03:42 The Politics of AI

01:07:32 The Next Stage of Training AI Models

Demystifying First Brands Group’s $ 12 Billion Bankruptcy | Robert Smith of the Financial Times Nov 24, 2025

Show notes

Robert Smith, Corporate Finance Editor at the FT, joins Jack to discuss the recent $12 billion bankruptcy of First Brands Group that has shocked the financial world. He explains the history of First Brands, its collapse, and the company’s ongoing bankruptcy proceedings. Robert also discusses the larger world of private credit and if First Brands is the first of many ‘credit cockroaches.’ The bankruptcy is of particular interest given the fact that it could be a signal of further problems on the horizon of the private credit market. Recorded on November 21st, 2025.

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Read Robert’s FT Articles https://www.ft.com/robert-smith

First Brands Collapse in a Nutshell https://on.ft.com/48ptTUu

The Fed Won’t Pop AI: It Will Save Housing | Blue Door’s Dan Krausz On The Three Neutral Rates, The Liquidity Waterfall, and Why Profits Rising While Employment Falters Is Not Bearish For The Stock Market Nov 23, 2025

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This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by Fiscal.ai. Sign up for a 2-week free trial and get 15% off any paid tier at: http://fiscal.ai/mm

Dan Krausz of Blue Door Asset Management joins Monetary Matters to argue that the global economy is currently driven by two dominant macro factors: aggressive fiscal policy and Artificial Intelligence. He breaks down the concept of a "three-speed economy," explaining how 6% fiscal deficits create a "liquidity waterfall" that funds the government first while leaving housing and small businesses in a silent recession. Dan posits the contrarian view that the Federal Reserve may actually need an AI productivity boom to manage long-term inflation and debt, making the potential "AI bubble" a necessary economic tool rather than a threat. Finally, he outlines his three critical rules for positioning in this environment, explaining why investors must "avoid the middle" and why the opportunity is shifting from AI infrastructure to implementation. Recorded on November 18, 2025.

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Is The AI Bubble Popping? | Jack and Max on Data Center Debt, Fragile Markets, and Insurance Companies Nov 21, 2025

Show notes

This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by Fiscal.ai. Sign up for a 2-week free trial and get 15% off any paid tier at: http://fiscal.ai/mm
As investors’ outlook on AI capital expenditure sours, Jack and Max explore the rising debt issuance to fund artificial intelligence development, and the faltering share prices of companies with exposure to the “AI factor”: the hyperscalers (particularly Oracle), the chip companies, and the neoclouds such as Coreweave and Nebius. Jack then looks at two insurance companies, Kinsale and Palomar, as insurance sector does its part to hold up the S&P 500. Jack and Max also give an update on Chinese fintechs at the end. Recorded on November 21, 2025.
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Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

02:28 Debt Fueled CapEx Boom

08:23 "AI CEOs Are Building a God"

11:24 The Real Speculative Bubble

15:51 NeoCloud Risk

17:53 Fiscal AI

19:11 Healthcare and Insurance Strength

21:38 Kinsale Capital Group

27:38 Factors Benefiting Insurance

29:12 Palomar Holdings

33:48 Jobs Data and December Fed Meeting

37:26 Chinese Fintech Bloodbath

40:32 Conclusion

AI Euphoria Is Rolling Over | Lyn Alden on Bitcoin Correction, Who Satoshi Is, Data Center CapEx, and Whether AI Is A Bubble Nov 19, 2025

Show notes

Learn more about the VanEck Rare Earth and Strategic Metals ETF: www.vaneck.com/REMXJack

In a change of pace, Lyn Alden of Lyn Alden Investment Strategy returns to Monetary Matters not to talk macro, but to discuss in-depth her views on AI capital expenditures that are driving a majority of the economic growth in the United States. Describing herself as “a moderate bull on AI,” Alden argues that AI is masking the true weakness of the U.S. economy, and that, while AI will prove to transform industries, there could be hiccups in the huge sums that are being spent to build out this AI vision. She notes that “AI euphoria is rolling over” and shares her views on the chip depreciation, with analogues to Bitcoin mining.

Alden shares her view on Bitcoin in 2026 and explains in depth how the difficulty adjustments within Bitcoin support the long-term sustainability of the network. This is the most in-depth on Bitcoin Jack has gone with Lyn Alden in his many interviews going back to 2020. Recorded on November 17, 2025.

Pieces discussed:

“Liquidity, Shutdowns, Tariffs, and Earnings,” November 9, 2025: https://www.lynalden.com/premium-2025-11-9/

“Liquidity Pivot and Banking Update,” October 26, 2025: https://www.lynalden.com/premium-2025-10-26/

“Two AI Stock Rotations,” October 12, 2025: https://www.lynalden.com/premium-2025-10-12/

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Can Alpha Capture Save Fundamental Long/Short Equity Investing? | David Stemerman CenterBook Partners Nov 18, 2025

Show notes

This Other People’s Money episode is brought you by Fiscal.ai. Sign up for a 2-week free trial and get 15% off any paid tier at: http://fiscal.ai/mm

Fundamental long-short equity investing has been in decline with fewer new fund launches and dwindling assets, but David Stemerman, CEO, CIO and Co-founder of CenterBook Partners believes data clearly shows these investors still have significant investing skill. He argues that single manger hedge fund data collected using alpha capture can be used to construct new portfolios and strategies that will be more attractive for institutional investors. Through a combination of direct payments, data sharing, and partnering with single managers on custom strategies he believes that that alpha capture can revitalize single manager hedge funds. Not all alpha capture strategies are made equal though and one of the biggest problems he is trying to solve is convincing managers and their LPs that alpha capture can be done without harming the returns of the manager.

Read the white paper: https://www.centerbook.com/ACPaper

Become a CenterBook Partners partner fund: https://www.centerbook.com/contributors

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Timestamps

00:00 Intro

00:40 Fiscal.ai

01:34 Single Manager & Tiger Cub Origins

02:45 Fundamental Long Short Equity Under Pressure

07:21 History of Alpha Capture

09:07 Responsible Alpha Capture

16:40 Fiscal.ai

17:58 Why Don’t Managers Adapt to Allocator Demands?

26:48 CenterBook's Current Alpha Capture Strategy

33:14 How Do You Manage External Partners?

35:38 Reactions From LPs at Partner Funds

39:46 Types of Allocators Are Interested in Alpha Capture?

41:53 Types of Managers Partnering with CenterBook

43:04 Is Alpha Theory a Requirement?

46:03 Scale Limits for CenterBook

48:39 Do Most Managers Have Skill?

53:15 Active Extension: The Future of Active Management?

01:03:13 Timeline for Single Manager Active Extensions

The State of Real Estate Credit | Rithm Capital's Satish Mansukhani on Mortgage Servicing, Commercial Real Estate, and Rithm's Asset Manager Acquisition Strategy Nov 16, 2025

Show notes

This episode is brought to you by CAIA.nxt. Learn more about their alternatives education courses for investment advisors and get 10% off with code MMTEN:

https://caia.org/content/welcome-monetary-matters-and-other-peoples-money-listeners

Satish Mansukhani, managing director at Rithm Capital, joins Jack on Monetary Matters for a high-level real estate discussion. Jack and Satish discuss the complexities of real estate investing, credit quality, private credit, and more in an interview that explores the minutiae of this gigantic sector of capital markets. Recorded on October 22nd, 2025.

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/jackfarley96

Follow Satish on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/satishmansukhani/

Satish’s Articles:

“Life in Office—It’s Not All Bad”: https://www.rithmcap.com/insights/life-in-office-it-s-not-all-bad/

“Control Over Access: The Structural Edge in Asset-Backed Finance”: https://www.rithmcap.com/insights/control-over-access-the-structural-edge-in-asset-backed-finance/

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The Case For S&P 10,000 by 2027 | Erik YWR on Global Economic Boom, Why Soaring Earnings Support High Equity Valuations, and Oil + China Nov 14, 2025

Show notes

Erik YWR, global investor and author of the Your Weekend Reading Substack, joins Monetary Matters to make the case that the stock market is headed higher, and that investors are far too bearish. Erik argues that with corporate earnings growing at double digit levels, valuations can get a lot higher from here. Several tailwinds that support this ongoing bull market include strong fiscal spending, high and durable earnings growth worldwide, a strong banking sector that is about to be unleashed, and technological transformations in AI, semiconductors, electric grids, and grid transformation. Recorded on November 6, 2025.

Follow Erik YWR on Twitter https://x.com/erik_ywr

Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96

Pieces discussed:

“YWR Killer Wave Charts,” October 24, 2025: https://www.ywr.world/p/ywr-killer-wave-charts

“YWR: $200 oil pops the bubble,” October:

https://www.ywr.world/p/ywr-200-oil-pops-the-bubble

“YWR: China Trip Highlights,” November 3, 2025: https://www.ywr.world/p/ywr-china-trip-highlights

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Why Beating the Market Isn’t Enough for Investment Managers | Corey Hoffstein Nov 13, 2025

Show notes

This Other People’s Money episode is brought you by Fiscal.ai. Sign up for a 2-week free trial and get 15% off any paid tier at: http://fiscal.ai/mm

Corey Hoffstein, CEO and CIO of Newfound Research and co-founder and PM of Return Stacked ETFs, joins OPM to discuss his journey in the investment management business. He argues that beating the market is a commoditized value proposition and that investment managers need to solve other problems for their clients to attract assets. He also discusses his experience licensing research to other asset managers, his belief that distribution is the key question of success in the asset management business, and how quantitative research and other forms of content like podcasts and social media can help build brand awareness.

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Timestamps

00:00 Intro

00:27 Fiscal AI

01:16 The Difference Between Quant and Systematic Investing

03:18 Can Market Bubbles Be Measured?

05:05 Is Market Timing a Good Bet?

09:31 Evolving Risk Premia and Market Inefficiencies

16:41 Fiscal AI

18:20 Beginnings in Investment Management

23:04 Licensing Indexes to Other Managers

27:35 Providing Education Materials

31:26 Moving Into Asset Management

36:47 Evolving into Current Strategies

40:06 Thinking About the Investment Product Wrapper

43:11 Asset Management vs Investment Management

47:27 Solving Behavioral Finance Problems and Market Problems

51:28 Different Ways of Using Leverage

52:41 Knowing Your Client Base Isn’t Institutional

55:45 Content Creation and Brand Building

59:27 Growing an Audience: What Financial Content Goes Viral?

01:04:27 Dealing with Compliance and Education

01:07:22 How To Read and Interpret Quantitative Research as a Normie

01:12:22 How Is AI Being Used by Quants?

01:15:48 Conclusion

Is It Enough? Michael Howell on Money Market Turbulence, Standing Repo Facility, and Why Fed Balance Sheet Expansion Is Inevitable Nov 10, 2025

Show notes

Monetary Matters listeners can get 20% discounted access to an annual subscription of Michael Howell’s Capital Wars here: https://capitalwars.substack.com/MonetaryMatters

With the Federal Reserve announcing the end of Quantitative Tightening (QT) on December 1st, Jack welcomes Michael Howell of GL Indexes and the Capital Wars Substack back to share an update on his measure of Fed liquidity and his outlook for 2026. Howell explains why Fed balance sheet expansion is inevitable. Recorded on November 6, 2025.

Pieces discussed:

“The Return Of ‘Not-QE, QE’ (Part 1),” October 31, 2025: https://capitalwars.substack.com/p/the-return-of-not-qe-qe-part-1

“The Return Of ‘Not-QE, QE’ (Part 2),” November 1, 2025: https://capitalwars.substack.com/p/the-return-of-not-qe-qe-part-2

“Global Liquidity Watch: Weekly Update,” November 4, 2025: https://capitalwars.substack.com/p/global-liquidity-watch-weekly-update-c8e

Also:

“Scrambled Eggs, The Fed’s Latest Policy Directive: ‘FSSF-Off,’” November 9, 2025: https://capitalwars.substack.com/p/scrambled-eggs

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