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    Business

    Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

    Jack Farley interviews the very best financial minds about macro, markets, and monetary matters. Follow Jack on Twitter @JackFarley96.

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    Latest Episodes:
    How China Could Dominate U.S. AI | Dr. Michael Power on Open Source and "The Three Assassins" of Moore's Law Jan 12, 2026
    Show notes

    Dr. Michael Power, a seasoned financial analyst, consultant, and strategist, joins Jack to discuss his recent work that predicts the Chinese A.I. industry may soon beat the U.S. at its own game. Dr. Power explains what makes the Chinese approach fundamentally different from U.S. labs like OpenAI and how it will likely affect the Chinese economy, the worldwide adoption of A.I., and the valuations of U.S. A.I. companies. As Dr. Power explains, China has the potential to not only catch up to the U.S., but to become the global leader in artificial intelligence. He and Jack get into the weeds to cut through the noise and get a read on what is really happening with Chinese A.I. Recorded on January 7th, 2026.

    Read Dr. Power’s No More Moore? Essay https://tinyurl.com/hvxdubbw

    Follow Dr. Power on LinkedIn https://za.linkedin.com/in/michael-power-8825473

    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/jackfarley96

    Follow Monetary Matters on:

    Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh

    Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5

    YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez


    Why Venezuela Won’t Solve America’s Real Energy Crisis | Michael Kao on AI, Electrification, and the Natural Gas Bottleneck Jan 11, 2026
    Show notes

    In this episode of Monetary Matters, Max Wiethe sits down with Michael Kao, CIO of Akanthos Capital Management and the Kao Family Office, to unpack the real energy risks facing the U.S. economy. The conversation opens with Venezuela and the Trump administration’s push to reshape global oil supply. Michael explains why Venezuela’s vast reserves are unlikely to move the market quickly, why OPEC spare capacity still caps oil prices, and why he remains structurally bearish on oil despite constant fears of shortages. From there, the focus shifts to what Michael believes is the true vulnerability: natural gas. He lays out a three-pillar thesis centered on premature electrification, the explosive growth of AI data centers, and expanding LNG exports. Together, these forces are driving electricity demand higher for the first time in decades, straining a power grid that increasingly depends on natural gas for baseload generation. The episode concludes with a discussion of how Michael is positioning for this shift, why he favors natural gas mineral rights over commodities or equities, and why natural gas is fundamentally different from oil when it comes to geopolitics and government intervention.


    Read Michael’s Substack, “Macro/Geopolitics/Investing - The Energy Achilles' Heel of America” here: https://www.urbankaoboy.com/p/re-macrogeopoliticsinvesting-the


    Follow Michael Kao on Twitter: https://x.com/UrbanKaoboy


    Follow Max Wiethe on Twitter: https://x.com/maxwiethe

    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://x.com/JackFarley96


    Follow Monetary Matters on:

    Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh

    Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5

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    Timestamps:

    00:00 Introduction to Geopolitical Energy Security

    00:46 US Energy Concerns and Venezuela

    01:33 Venezuela's Oil Production Potential

    03:22 Natural Gas: The New Dependency

    04:49 Challenges in Oil Production and Pricing

    15:16 The Role of Natural Gas in the Energy Market

    20:58 The Future of Natural Gas and Electricity Demand

    31:13 Investment Strategies in Natural Gas

    32:03 Challenges and Risks in Natural Gas Trading

    33:45 Advantages of Mineral Rights Investments

    38:16 Global and Local Dynamics of Natural Gas

    40:39 Data Centers and Energy Demand

    42:39 Future of Natural Gas and Market Trends

    52:26 Investment Considerations and Strategies

    01:03:12 Conclusion and Final Thoughts


    The Global Bull Market: Examining the Dramatic Outperformance of Global Stocks vs. the US | Jack & Max Jan 07, 2026
    Show notes

    This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by Fiscal.ai. Sign up for a 2-week free trial and get 15% off any paid tier at: ⁠https://fiscal.ai/mm


    In this episode, Jack Farley and Max Wiethe break down what really happened in markets in 2025 and what it means for investors heading into 2026. While U.S. equities delivered strong returns and continued to attract record foreign capital, global markets quietly outperformed, with emerging markets, Europe, Japan, and parts of Asia posting significantly higher total returns. The conversation digs into why the “U.S. is the only game in town” narrative broke down, how currency hedging changed foreign capital flows, and why countries like South Korea and China dominated performance. Jack and Max also explore sector-level winners and losers, the ongoing strength of AI and semiconductors, and the rise of speculative excess in areas with little fundamental support. Looking ahead, they debate the biggest risks for 2026, including AI valuations, private credit, labor market weakness, and the growing disconnect between corporate profits and employment. The episode closes with a discussion of tariffs, geopolitics, precious metals, and where real opportunities and hidden risks may lie as the global bull market continues to evolve.


    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://x.com/JackFarley96

    Follow Max Wiethe on Twitter: https://x.com/maxwiethe


    Follow Monetary Matters on:

    Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh

    Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5

    YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez


    Timestamps:

    00:00 Introduction

    00:47 US Market Performance in 2025

    02:37 Global Market Comparison

    04:25 Top Performing Countries and Sectors

    05:08 Worst Performing Markets

    11:29 Sector Analysis and Trends

    16:50 Speculative Stocks and Quantum Computing

    19:59 AI Trade and Precious Metals

    23:55 Silver Market Dynamics and Supply Constraints

    25:02 Biggest Risks to Market Stability in 2026

    26:58 Bond Market and Inflationary Concerns

    30:28 Private Credit and Market Risks

    36:02 Tariffs and Their Impact on the Market

    41:29 Geopolitical Special Situations: Venezuela

    44:15 Upcoming Interviews and Fiscal AI


    The Convexity Maven’s Biggest Macro Trades of 2026: Why Bonds, Gold, and Debasement Matter Again in 2026 | Harley Bassman Jan 04, 2026
    Show notes

    Harley Bassman, managing partner at Simplify Asset Management and widely known as the “Convexity Maven,” joins Monetary Matters to break down the hidden risks shaping today’s markets. He explains why inflation is likely to remain structurally higher, why massive fiscal deficits matter more than Fed policy, and how passive flows continue to support equities despite growing cracks underneath. The conversation dives deep into bonds, mortgage-backed securities, credit risk, gold as an alternative currency, and why convexity is the key concept investors consistently underestimate. Bassman also outlines practical portfolio hedges designed to perform when markets move to extremes, offering a rare, long-horizon framework for navigating uncertainty in 2026 and beyond.


    Read Harley’s 2026 Stocking Stuffers here: https://www.convexitymaven.com


    Follow Harley Bassman on Twitter: https://x.com/ConvexityMaven

    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter: https://x.com/JackFarley96

    Follow Max Wiethe on Twitter: https://x.com/maxwiethe


    Follow Monetary Matters on:

    Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh

    Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5

    YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez


    Timestamps:

    00:00 Introduction to Financial Crises and Convexity

    00:30 Meet the Convexity Maven: Harley Bassman

    01:08 Macro View: Inflation and Economic Drivers

    01:48 Demographics and Spending Trends

    03:24 Immigration and GDP Growth

    04:21 Fiscal Policy and Inflation

    05:36 Bond Market Predictions

    13:27 Equity Markets and Passive Flows

    17:31 Mortgage-Backed Securities: A Safe Bet?

    23:51 Leveraged Trades and Interest Rate Hedges

    32:09 Comparing Long Duration Investments

    33:50 Understanding Positive Carry in Options

    40:36 Private Credit and High Quality BDCs

    48:48 Investing in Big Oil and MLPs

    55:03 Gold as an Alternative Currency

    01:00:12 Portfolio Construction and Sizing

    01:01:50 Conclusion and Future Episodes


    Citrini’s 26 Trades for 2026 | Citrini on BS Jobs, AI Materials, Advanced Packaging, World Cup, & More Dec 31, 2025
    Show notes

    Monetary Matters can get 25% off Citrini Bundle (Citrindex AND Citrini Research) here through January 14: https://www.citriniresearch.com/subscribe?coupon=398e4269


    The investor known only as Citrini returns to share his thematic watchlist for the new year, aka “26 Trades for 2026.” The conversation pivots from the hardware-focused "phase one" of the AI trade toward "phase two," which focuses on companies utilizing AI to streamline bloated bureaucracies and increase margins. Citrini details his high-conviction "AI Bureaucracy Alpha" framework, identifying firms that could significantly reduce headcounts and improve profitability through automation. Beyond labor, the interview explores critical bottlenecks in the supply chain, specifically highlighting the importance of advanced packaging and custom silicon. They also dive into commodities like natural gas and copper, analyzing how AI data center demand is creating a potential supply squeeze. Finally, Citrini discusses his "Post-Traumatic Supply Disorder" theory, identifying cyclical sectors that are currently showing extreme capital discipline after years of trauma. Recorded December 24, 2025.


    Pieces Discussed:“26 Trades for 2026: A Thematic Watchlist for the New Year”: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/26-trades-for-2026

    “Carving Up the TPU: Leftovers for Jensen or Just Gravy on the AI Trade?”: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/carving-up-the-tpu

    “Robotics Update: Revealing Teradyne’s Vulcan Contract Win, Citrini’s China Supply Chain Tour, and Robotics Basket Winners”: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/robotics-update


    Follow Citrini on Twitter https://x.com/Citrini7

    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96


    Follow Monetary Matters on:

    Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh

    Spotify https://rb.gy/x56dx5

    YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez


    Investing Data is Evolving: AI, The Degenerate Economy & More | Matt Ober | Social Leverage Dec 30, 2025
    Show notes

    In this episode of Other People’s Money, Matt Ober, General Partner at Social Leverage, discusses how the data economy is evolving for providers, vendors, and investors. He explains how AI is reshaping data business models, highlights emerging data sources in what he calls the “degenerate economy,” and argues that many alternative data sets once considered sources of alpha are rapidly becoming commoditized beta.


    Matt also shares how Social Leverage uses data to make seed stage venture investments, how its approach differs from that of mega VC firms, and where the firm is currently focused. He reflects on his career path from quantitative hedge funds to venture capital and how the expanding role of data shaped his trajectory in the investment business.


    Before joining Social Leverage, Matt was Chief Data Scientist at Third Point, where he built the firm’s data analytics and technology platform supporting investments across equities, structured credit, venture capital, and cryptocurrency. Earlier, he was Head of Data Strategy at WorldQuant and a founding member of WorldQuant Ventures, focused on private investments in fintech, data, and technology.


    Sign up for Matt’s newsletter The Rollup: https://www.mattober.co/


    Follow Matt on X: https://x.com/obermattj

    Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe


    Follow Other People’s Money on:


    Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M

    Spotify https://bit.ly/3Yhaazi

    YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR

    X https://x.com/opmpod



    Timestamps:

    00:00 Introduction

    01:21 The Business of Data

    03:28 Data Pricing and AI Impact

    04:36 Challenges for Data Companies

    07:31 Emerging Data Sets and Buyers

    14:25 Social Leverage's Investment Strategy

    17:07 Venture Capital Market Dynamics

    21:22 Fund of Funds and Network Value

    22:40 Insights on Software and AI

    25:54 Beehive vs. Substack

    29:46 Hedge Fund Journey and Data Evolution

    31:41 The Data-Driven Investment Strategy

    32:05 Scaling Up: From Millions to Billions

    32:24 Global Data Acquisition

    32:49 Building a Data-Driven Ecosystem

    33:06 Transition to Third Point

    33:43 Integrating Data with Investment Processes

    34:34 Challenges and Politics in Hedge Funds

    35:49 Evaluating Data Sets and Their Impact

    37:43 The Evolution of Data in Investment

    38:49 The Role of Data in Hedge Fund Success

    43:10 From Hedge Funds to Venture Capital

    52:08 The Future of Wealth Management

    55:00 The Rise of Prediction Markets

    59:35 Conclusion and Final Thoughts


    Investing in Gray | Pictet’s Maria Vassalou on Aging Demographics and Technological Innovations Dec 29, 2025
    Show notes

    Today's episode is brought to you by Teucrium. Learn more at: https://bit.ly/4gfI0fe


    Jack welcomes Maria Vassalou, head of the Pictet Research Institute, to discuss global demographic decline and how technological revolution is imperative to prevent economic stagnation. They talk about why aging populations in countries like China, Japan, and Italy pose a fundamental threat to traditional economic growth as dependency ratios are projected to exceed 50%. Maria argues that while these trends seem "gloomy" in isolation, the rise of robotics and AI provides a critical remedy by substituting for scarce labor and significantly boosting productivity. The episode concludes with a look at the "winners" and "losers" of this shift, identifying housing, healthcare, and food as resilient sectors, while cautioning that countries must invest heavily in technology now to avoid long-term GDP flatlining/decline. Recorded December 12, 2025.


    “Demographics and Technology” Paper (by Maria Vassalou PhD & Pictet Research Institute): https://www.pictet.com/us/en/about/pictet-research-institute/publications-and-press/demographics-and-technology

    More info about Pictet Research Institute: https://www.pictet.com/us/en/about/pictet-research-institute/publications-and-press/FT-coverage-30oct2025


    Follow Maria Vassalou on LinkedIn linkedin.com/in/maria-vassalou-ph-d-2b771511

    Follow Teucrium on Twitter https://x.com/TeucriumETFs

    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96


    Follow Monetary Matters on:

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    YouTube https://rb.gy/dpwxez


    China and the Reordering of World Trade | Former Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs Jay Shambaugh Dec 24, 2025
    Show notes

    Today's episode is brought to you by Teucrium. Learn more at: https://bit.ly/4gfI0fe

    Jay Shambaugh, former Under Secretary of the Treasury for International Affairs, joins Jack to discuss U.S. economic relations, China, and more. He draws on his years of expertise to deliver important insights into how America has realigned itself in the world economic order in the second Trump administration. Recorded on December 17th, 2025.

    Follow Teucrium on Twitter https://x.com/TeucriumETFs

    Follow Jay Shambaugh on Twitter https://x.com/jaycshambaugh

    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/jackfarley96

    Follow Monetary Matters on:

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    How India’s Macro Tailwinds Are Fueling Its Aerospace & Defense Sectors | Andrei Stetsenko Dec 21, 2025
    Show notes

    This Monetary Matters episode is brought to you by Fiscal.ai. Sign up for a 2-week free trial and get 15% off any paid tier at: http://fiscal.ai/mm


    Read about Indian Aerospace & Defense and sign up for Dispatches From India: https://www.gymkhanapartners.com/dispatches/major-sector-inflection-india-defense-and-aerospace


    Andrei Stetsenko, partner and portfolio manager at Gymkhana Partners, discusses the explosive growth of India's economy, its strategic shift toward global defense and aerospace leadership, and under appreciated small-cap companies.


    Follow Andrei on X: https://x.com/astetsen

    Follow Jack on X: https://x.com/JackFarley96

    Follow Gymkhana Partners on X: https://x.com/GymkhanaFund


    Timestamps:

    00:00 Introduction to Indian Aerospace

    01:26 Gymkhana Partners: Investment Philosophy

    04:09 Valuation and Sectoral Differences

    05:36 India's Economic Growth

    14:34 Government Policies and Reforms

    18:20 Indian Consumer Market

    26:03 US-India Trade Relations and Tariffs

    28:06 Aerospace & Defense Sector in India

    31:49 Investment Opportunities in Indian Aerospace

    37:43 Complexities of Indian MRO & Sika's Growth

    42:41 Defense Sector Opportunities

    46:53 Indigenization of Indian Defense Procurement

    56:06 HoldCo Dynamics & Maharashtra Scooters

    01:05:56 Gymkhana’s Investment Strategy & Performance

    01:13:34 AI Investments & Alphabet's Strategy

    01:18:19 Conclusion


    Disclosure: Andrei’s business partner is Jack's father and Gymkhana Partners is a consulting client of Monetary Matters parent company.


    Disclaimer: This presentation is for informational purposes only and should not be construed as investment advice. It is not a recommendation of, nor does it constitute an offer to sell or solicitation of an offer to buy, any security, strategy, or investment product.


    The research for this presentation is based on current public information that Farly Capital considers reliable. However, Farley Capital does not represent that the research or the presentation is accurate or complete, and it should not be relied on as such. The views and opinions expressed herein are current as of the date of this report and are subject to change. Past performance is no guarantee of future results. Certain statements contained herein are forward looking. There is no guarantee such forward looking statements will materialize, and results may differ entirely from what is described.


    The holdings identified in this presentation do not represent all of the securities purchased, sold, or recommended for Gymkhana Partners L.P. It should not be assumed that investments made in the future will be profitable or will equal the performance of the securities in this list. Past performance does not guarantee future results. Additional information, including (i) the calculation methodology; and (ii) a list showing the contribution of each holding to Gymkhana Partners L.P.’s performance will be provided upon request.


    Any market index referred to in this presentation has been selected for purposes of comparing the performance of an investment in Gymkhana Partners L.P. with a well-known, broad-based equity benchmark. Viewers should not consider any comparative index shown in this document to be a performance benchmark for Gymkhana Partners L.P. The statistical data regarding such an index has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable. The nature of such indices differs from that of Gymkhana Partners L.P. Gymkhana Partners L.P. is not restricted to investing in those securities that comprise any such index; its performance may or may not correlate to any such index and should not be considered a proxy for any such index. Historical performance results for indexes generally do not reflect the deduction of transaction and/or custodial charges or the deduction of an investment management fee, the incurrence of which would have the effect of decreasing historical performance results.


    From Bad to Less Bad: A Quantitative Approach to Turnarounds | Bloomberg Indices’ Steve Hou on “Reformers Index,” Baumol Disease, and Structural Inflation Dec 20, 2025
    Show notes

    Today's episode is brought to you by Teucrium. Learn more at: https://bit.ly/4gfI0fe


    In this episode of Monetary Matters, Jack sits down with Steve Hou, Senior Quant Researcher at Bloomberg, to discuss the structural forces reshaping the global economy. Hou argues that we have entered a "structurally, modestly more inflationary regime" driven by five key forces: Decarbonization, Demographic aging, Deglobalization, Debt/Fiscal Dominance, and a secular rise in global Defense spending. The conversation explores the "Baumol Effect” and Mike Green’s theory of the poverty level.

    Hou also provides a deep dive into his "Reformers Index," a quantitative strategy he is working on at Bloomberg Indices that ignores traditional "quality" stocks to find companies at a fundamental inflection point. By identifying firms moving from "bad to less bad,” such as Uber, Palantir, and Robinhood, Hou demonstrates how systematic fundamental momentum can outperform the broader market. Recorded December 12, 2025.


    Follow Steve Hou on Twitter https://x.com/stevehou

    Follow Steve Hou on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/steve-hou-001/

    Follow Jack Farley on Twitter https://x.com/JackFarley96

    Follow Monetary Matters on:

    Apple Podcast https://rb.gy/s5qfyh

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