Monetary Matters with Jack Farley

Latest Episodes:

Citrini: Monkeys Are The Next Bottleneck | Citrini on AI Drug Discovery Experiment & Reflexive Financing Risk to AI Buildout & Hardware Trade Oct 25, 2026

Show notes

This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here:

https://sarmayaetf.com/

Citrini teamed up with Anthropic and used Claude to design scorpion antivenom candidates in just 64 hours, and 17 of them bound in the lab. The experiment led him to a striking conclusion: AI is commoditizing drug design, and the real bottleneck is now experiments, and monkeys. We get into what AI can and can’t speed up in drug discovery, why he’s bullish on the companies that run experiments, and why a monkey shortage may be the most important constraint in preclinical testing. Then we turn to AI hardware: Citrini was one of the earliest and loudest bulls on the trade, and today he’s light on it, even short some of it. He explains why he rotated out of semis, what lab revenue needs to look like to justify today’s spending, and what would bring him back. We also cover CoreWeave, DeepSeek’s reported 80% margins, his long-Meta, short-Google trade, the 2028 Global Intelligence Crisis piece, and homebuilders. Recorded evening of October 21, 2026.Follow Citrini on X https://x.com/citrini

CItrini Research Substack https://www.citriniresearch.com/

“Citrini Therapeutics: We Wanted to Use Claude to Create a New Drug. Here’s What Happened.”: https://www.citriniresearch.com/p/citrini-therapeutics

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Important Information

The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before

investing.

There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically.

An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns. ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com/

Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.

Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund.

Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.

The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.

"Coreweave's a Zero" | George Noble on Why He's Short Neoclouds, Why AI is a Shale 2.0 Bubble Headed for Debt/Depreciation Brick Wall, and Why He's "Coming For The Momentum Bros" Oct 23, 2026

Show notes

This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here:

https://sarmayaetf.com/

George Noble, the former Fidelity portfolio manager who ran the Fidelity Overseas Fund and started his career working for Peter Lynch, returns to Monetary Matters to argue that AI is a bubble and the bill is coming due. George explains why he thinks hyperscaler depreciation could exceed $500 billion a year by 2030, enough to wipe out the profits of the companies spending it, and why he calls AI “shale”: a capex arms race that no one can afford to stop. He lays out why he’s short CoreWeave, Tesla, and SpaceX, which he calls a cash-flow-negative AI play with a rocket company attached, and why he believes CoreWeave and many of the neoclouds are zeros short of a bailout. Jack pushes back on Micron’s margins, Elon’s execution, and whether the market has already priced in the risk. George also covers why rising cost of capital is the trigger, why he’s long gold and energy, and why he thinks we’re in “the beginnings of the awakening phase.” It’s a wide-ranging, combative conversation from one of the market’s most vocal AI bears. Recorded October 21, 2026. TO BE CLEAR EXACT QUOTE WAS “SHORT OF A BAILOUT I AM HIGHLY CONFIDENT COREWEAVE IS A ZERO.”

Follow George Noble on X https://x.com/gnoble79

Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96

George Noble’s Substack, “The Noble Update”: https://substack.com/@georgenoble/posts

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Important Information

investing.

Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.

Learn More about Sarmaya LENS

https://sarmayaetf.com/

Is The AI Trade Over? | Jack & Max on Panic in AI Credit, SpaceX Earnings, and Semis Oct 20, 2026

Show notes

This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/ Is the AI trade finally cracking, or is this just another shakeout before the next leg higher? Jack and Max dig into the growing stress in AI-linked credit, where lenders and bondholders are starting to question how much debt the data center buildout can really support. They break down SpaceX’s earnings and what the numbers reveal about the economics behind one of the most closely watched companies in the world. From there, the conversation turns to semiconductors and whether chip stocks are pricing in a slowdown or still running on hype. Along the way, they look at where the risks are building, who’s most exposed if AI spending cools, and how investors can position for both outcomes. Whether you’re long the AI trade, short it, or somewhere in between, this episode is for you. Important Information The Fund’s investment objectives, risks, charges and expenses must be considered carefully before investing. This and other important information are contained in the prospectus, which may be obtained by following the links Prospectus and Summary Prospectus or by calling +1.215.330.4476. Please read the prospectus carefully before investing. There is no assurance that the fund will achieve its investment objective. The Fund may not be suitable for all investors. Investors should continue to review their investment objectives and risk tolerance periodically. An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns. ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies. Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund. Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee. The Fund is distributed by PINE Distributors LLC. The Fund’s investment adviser is Empowered Funds, LLC, which is doing business as ETF Architect. Sarmaya Partners LLC serves as the Sub-Advisor to the Fund. PINE Distributors LLC is not affiliated with ETF Architect or Sarmaya Partners LLC.

Jim Bianco: Why I’m Finally Buying Bonds After Six Years Oct 18, 2026

Show notes

This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here:

https://sarmayaetf.com/

Jim Bianco of Bianco Research called the 2022 bond bear market and stayed bearish on bonds for six years. Now, for the first time since then, he’s constructive.

Jim explains why 5% yields aren’t punishing but normal: rates should roughly track nominal GDP growth, and he expects the U.S. economy to grow at 5–6% nominally. He makes the case that inflation is stuck at 3% because the era of cheap Chinese goods is over, and explains why oil is already effectively $200 a barrel once you count tanker costs and naval security in the Strait of Hormuz. He also covers why diesel shows up in the price of everything, and why Kevin Warsh scrapping forward guidance has left markets feeling around in the dark.

On credit, Jim explains why the blowout in CCC bonds, CoreWeave included, is a handful of problem kids in detention rather than a canary in the coal mine. On AI, he argues it’s 1997, not 2000, and that the bigger risk may be that AI works.

Follow Jim on X: @biancoresearch

Bianco Research: biancoadvisors.com

Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96

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Important Information

investing.

Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.

Learn More about LENS Sarmaya ETF

https://sarmayaetf.com/

The AI Bubble Will Pop from Equity Supply Says This $80 Billion Asset Manager | Ben Inker | GMO Oct 14, 2026

Show notes

This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/

Ben Inker, Co-Head of Asset Allocation at GMO, joins Other People’s Money to discuss why the IPOs and subsequent shareholder unlocks of SpaceX, Anthropic, and OpenAI will bring an unprecedented amount of equity issuance and pop the AI bobble. Inker explains how this mechanism was responsible for popping tech bubbles in 2000 and 2021 and the mathematical relationship between below average equity returns and equity supply. He also outlines how this equity supply in conjunction with a slowdown in the AI buildout from realizations of an AI overbuild could send the stock market down as much as 50% with even greater pain for the most AI linked companies.

Read GMO’s Q3 2026 Quarterly Letter: https://www.gmo.com/globalassets/articles/quarterly-letter/2026/gmo-quarterly-letter_3q-2026.pdf

Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe

Follow Other People’s Money on:

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X https://x.com/opmpod

Important Information

ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com

Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

01:10 AI Bubble Setup

06:12 Equity Supply Matters More

10:44 IPO Wave Math

15:32 Sarmaya LENS ETF

16:59 Dotcom Fiber Parallel

20:32 Finding Non-AI Bets

24:06 Passive Flows and Liquidity

29:40 Credit Risks and Spillovers

37:51 Can Government Backstop AI?

41:48 Credit Stress Check

45:36 Energy Portfolio Benefits

48:13 Value Versus Growth Spreads

50:10 Ex-US AI Winners

54:34 Big Tech Commoditizes Compute

57:00 What If Mega Caps Go Sideways?

01:01:53 Memory: Cyclical Peak Earnings Trap

01:05:09 The Major Crash Scenario

01:10:44 Conclusion

Top Performing Value Investor Explains Why the Market Isn’t Overvalued and Hasn’t Hit the Blowoff Top Phase | Charles Lemonides | ValueWorks LLC Oct 12, 2026

Show notes

This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/

Charles Lemonides, CIO and founder of ValueWorks LLC, joins Other People’s Money to discuss why the 18-year bull market still has room to run. Lemonides argues that we have not yet reached the explosive "liftoff" phase typical of late-stage bull markets and explains why the biggest gains often come right before the turn. He shares his strategy for finding "growth in value's clothing," highlighting high-upside opportunities in semiconductors, rideshare, delivery, and offshore energy. Plus, he breaks down where he sees extreme overvaluation in the market and breaks down his most compelling short positions.

Learn more about ValueWorks: https://www.valueworksllc.com/

Follow Max on X: https://x.com/maxwiethe

Follow Other People’s Money on:

Apple Podcast https://bit.ly/4e7QJ1M

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YouTube https://bit.ly/3C63VXR

X https://x.com/opmpod

Important Information

Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.

Timestamps:

00:00 Intro

01:00 Are We in a Bubble?

04:14 Rates Growth and Bonds

07:04 Value Investing Reframed

09:37 Micron Peak Earnings Debate

11:20 Intel Foundry

15:24 Sarmaya LENS ETF

16:52 Sizing Themes and Diversifying

18:41 Undervalued Challengers: Lyft & Instacart

29:10 Energy Sector Setup

35:40 Portfolio Construction & Shorts

37:47 Shorting Texas Pacific Land Trust

41:24 Royalty Trusts and Mesabi

47:16 Retail Shorts: Casey’s & Grocers

52:43 AI Industrials, Quantum, & Aerospace

55:37 Offshore Wind and Conclusion

Stacy Rasgon: “Demand Is Off The Charts” in Semiconductors… And Set To Double Again Soon Oct 08, 2026

Show notes

This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here:

https://sarmayaetf.com/

Semiconductor earnings have roughly doubled this year, yet chip multiples have compressed and the stocks are still well off their June highs. Stacy Rasgon, Managing Director and Senior Analyst covering U.S. semiconductors and semicap equipment at Bernstein, joins Jack to explain what the market fears and why he thinks the cycle peak isn't here yet. Fresh off his annual Silicon Valley roadshow, Stacy says demand is "off the charts," nobody has enough compute, and the real constraints are land, power, and clean rooms rather than customer appetite. He explains why Nvidia and Broadcom have lagged the "bottleneck" trades in memory, optics, and power, and why both could trade at 11–12x earnings if their growth targets hold. The conversation covers the HBM-driven memory squeeze, his path to $300 billion-plus in wafer fab equipment spending, and why he leans toward Applied Materials in semicap. Stacy also explains why he doesn't hate Intel for the first time in his career, why traditional cycle indicators may no longer work, and how today's AI buildout differs from the dot-com bubble. Recorded October 5, 2026.

Stacy Rasgon on X https://x.com/Srasgon

Stacy Rasgon on LinkedIn https://www.linkedin.com/in/stacy-rasgon-6924963/

Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96

Follow Monetary Matters on:

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Important Information

investing.

Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.

The Most Extreme Shipping Market in History, Explained | J Mintzmyer on Why Oil Tanker Rates Are Up 25x and Why It Can’t Last (and Why Dry Bulk, not Tankers, is the Next Shipping Boom) Oct 06, 2026

Show notes

This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here: https://sarmayaetf.com/

Crude tanker rates have exploded to more than $1 million per day on some Middle East Gulf to China voyages, roughly 25 times normal levels, as the Iran war and disruption in the Strait of Hormuz throw global oil shipping into chaos. J Mintzmyer, founder of Value Investors Edge, joins Jack to explain why disruption and inefficiency are rocket fuel for ship owners, why "ton miles" are the real commodity, and why real-time AIS ship-tracking data in the Strait can't be trusted. J argues today's spot rates are unsustainable on a timescale of days or weeks, warns that the BWET freight ETF (up roughly 4,000% this year) could get smashed when rates turn, and lays out the wave of new tanker supply set to arrive in 2027–2028. He separates rates, ship values, and tanker equities, flagging Nordic American (NAT) as an avoid, naming Okeanis Eco Tankers (ECO) and TORM (TRMD) as the quality names, and explaining why product tankers may finally be catching up. We also cover the aging dark fleet, a potential US diesel export ban, and why J sees dry bulk as the most attractive segment in shipping today, with CMB Tech (CMBT) as his top pick and China's push into Guinean iron ore as a major tailwind. Recorded September 30, 2026.

J Mintzmyer on X https://x.com/mintzmyer

Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96

Pieces Discussed:

“CMB.TECH: Updates From Our Top Shipping Pick Of 2026”: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4944783-cmbtech-updates-from-our-top-shipping-pick-of-2026?gt=e5bc41646f6cc54e

“Dry Bulk Shipping Momentum Poised To Continue”: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4946334-dry-bulk-shipping-momentum-poised-to-continue?gt=b81339756f928160

“Here's What Happens To Shipping When The Strait of Hormuz Reopens”: https://seekingalpha.com/article/4949498-heres-what-happens-to-shipping-when-strait-of-hormuz-reopens

Value Investor’s Edge: https://www.vieresearch.com/

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Important Information

investing.

Ed Zitron on Anthropic's IPO (S-1), AI Debt, and Counterparty Risk Oct 01, 2026

Show notes

This episode is brought to you by Sarmaya Partners. Learn more about Sarmaya’s LENS ETF, their full data and comparison, including performance here:

https://sarmayaetf.com/

Ed Zitron, author of the Where's Your Ed At newsletter and host of the Better Offline podcast, returns to Monetary Matters to break down Anthropic's leaked IPO prospectus, as reported by Reuters. Ed argues that in 2025 Anthropic spent $2.75 for every dollar of revenue, worse than OpenAI's $2.60, and that nearly half its sales ran through Google and Amazon, two companies that also compete with it. We discuss Anthropic's $518 billion in compute commitments, why AI "run rate" figures can be misleading, and what the reported surge in 2026 revenue does and doesn't tell us. Ed also gives his take on Meta's Muse and OpenAI's Dots, and on whether AI agents can win over consumers. Then we turn to the credit markets: CoreWeave's borrowing costs, Oracle's ratings risk, data center SPVs trading below par, and how much of this debt sits with private credit lenders. Ed closes with his predictions for the Anthropic IPO and what he expects the AI build-out to look like by this time next year. Recorded afternoon of September 30, 2026.

Ed Zitron on X https://x.com/edzitron

Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96

Pieces Discussed:

“Dead Money” (Sep 29, 2026): https://www.wheresyoured.at/dead-money/

“Premium: The Hater's Guide To AI Debt (Part 2)” (Sep 25, 2026): https://www.wheresyoured.at/premium-the-haters-guide-to-ai-debt-part-2/

Follow Monetary Matters on:

Apple Podcasts https://rb.gy/s5qfyh

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Important Information

investing.

An investment in the Fund involves risk, including possible loss of principal. Exchange traded funds (ETFs) trade like stocks, are subject to investment risk, fluctuate in market value and may trade at prices above or below the ETF’s net asset value (NAV), and are not individually redeemable directly with the ETF. Brokerage commissions and ETF expenses will reduce returns. ETFs are subject to specific risks, depending on the nature of the underlying strategy of the Fund, which should be considered carefully when making investment decisions. For a complete description of the Fund’s principal investment risks, please refer to the prospectus at https://sarmayaetf.com/

Metals and Mining Companies Risk. Metals and mining companies can be significantly affected by events relating to international political and economic developments, energy conservation, the success of exploration projects, commodity prices, tax and other government regulations. Investments in metals and mining companies may be speculative and may be subject to greater price volatility than investments in other types of companies.

Management Risk. The Fund is actively managed and may not meet its investment objective based on the Adviser’s, Sub-Adviser’s, or portfolio manager’s success or failure to implement investment strategies for the Fund.

Shares of the Fund Are Not FDIC Insured, May Lose Value, and Have No Bank Guarantee.

Token Bill Dwarfs CPU Bill | Ben Pouladian on Meta's Muse, Anthropic S1, and Why All Roads Still Lead to NVIDIA Sep 30, 2026

Show notes

Ben Pouladian of BEP Research returns to Monetary Matters to break down who's winning and losing in AI right now, starting with Meta's Muse, the consumer agent he calls the "McDonald's version" of AI, and why he thinks its revenue will come mostly from ads rather than subscriptions, especially across WhatsApp-first markets like India and Brazil. Ben explains why the token bill for agentic AI dwarfs the CPU bill, why the key metric is becoming cost per token per megawatt, and why he believes "all roads and rockets lead to NVIDIA." He makes the case against AMD, including his open letter to Lisa Su and the scaling challenges of the Helios rack, and argues that NVIDIA GPUs are the "Rodeo Drive" of digital real estate because they are fungible and financeable in a way custom ASICs are not. Jack pushes back with TrendForce data showing every part of the AI supply chain is tight except GPUs, and Ben responds that commodity bottlenecks like memory and hard drives get crushed once supply catches up, while the true bottleneck is powered, permitted land. They discuss the growing data center backlash and whether the base case should be 25 gigawatts rather than 43, Anthropic's S-1 and its roughly half-trillion-dollar compute commitments, and whether AI lab revenue can double again next year. The conversation closes with scaling laws, why models will segment like grades of gasoline, AI's move into biology and drug discovery, and stock ideas including Meta, Lam Research, and Lattice Semiconductor. Recorded September 29, 2026.

“Meta's Muse Rally Bought the Wrong Layer. We modeled a billion agent users. The investment case turns on activity, token costs and trust”: https://newsletter.bepresearch.com/p/metas-muse-rally-bought-the-wrong?utm_source=profile&utm_medium=reader2

Jack Farley on X https://x.com/JackFarley96

Ben Pouladian on X https://x.com/benitoz

BEP Research: https://www.bepresearch.com/

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