Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Latest Episodes:

Philippa Sigl-Glöckner on the Debt Brake, German Fiscal Policy, and Full Capacity Utilization Sep 06, 2021

Show notes

Philippa Sigl-Glöckner is the director of the German think tank Dezernat Zukunft, or the Institute for Macrofinance, and was formerly a part of the German Federal Ministry of Finance. Philippa joins Macro Musings to talk about fiscal policy in Germany, as well as her new paper, *A New Fiscal Policy for Germany*. Specifically, David and Philippa discuss the historical context for German fiscal policy, the three big economic challenges for Germany, and how the country can achieve full capacity utilization in the future.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Philippa's Twitter: @PhilippaSigl

Philippa's website: http://philippasigl.com/

Philippa's Forbes profile: https://www.forbes.com/profile/philippa-sigl-glockner/?sh=383fb0233d30

Related Links:

*A New Fiscal Policy for Germany* by Philippa Sigl-Glöckner, Max Krahe, Pola Schneemelcher, Florian Schuster, Viola Hilbert, Henrika Meyer

https://dezernatzukunft.org/wp-content/uploads/2021/07/A-new-fiscal-policy-for-Germany.pdf

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Jennifer Murtazashvili on Recent Developments in Afghanistan and Lessons for State Capacity Building Aug 30, 2021

Show notes

Jennifer Murtazashvili is an associate professor of political science at the University of Pittsburgh and directs the Center for Governance and Markets. Jennifer is also an expert on all things Afghanistan, given her experience working there and advising governments and international organizations on issues related to Afghanistan. She also has a new book titled, *Land, the State, and War: Property Institutions and Political Order in Afghanistan*, and joins the show to talk about it. Jennifer and David also discuss the recent developments as well as long-term developments in the country and lessons for state capacity building.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Jennifer's Twitter: @jmurtazashvili

Jennifer's University of Pittsburgh profile: https://gspia.pitt.edu/faculty-and-staff/jennifer-brick-murtazashvili

Related Links:

*Land, the State, and War: Property Institutions and Political Order in Afghanistan* by Jennifer Murtazashvili and Ilia Murtazashvili

https://www.cambridge.org/core/books/land-the-state-and-war/A7B8C98CB24780A3CC0EA1CD265D888A

*Informal Federalism: Self-Governance and Power Sharing in Afghanistan* by Jennifer Murtazashvili

https://academic.oup.com/publius/article-abstract/44/2/324/1873292

*The Politics of Land Property Rights* by Meina Cai, Ilia Murtazashvili and Jennifer Murtazashvili

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3393160

*Bring the Afghans to America* by Benjamin Powell and Alex Nowrasteh

https://thehill.com/blogs/congress-blog/homeland-security/568964-bring-the-afghans-to-america?rl=1

*Inside Afghanistan's Cryptocurrency Underground as the Country Plunges into Turmoil* by MacKenzie Sigalos

https://www.cnbc.com/2021/08/21/bitcoin-afghanistan-cryptocurrency-taliban-capital-flight.html

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Bill Nelson on the Growth of the Federal Reserve Aug 23, 2021

Show notes

Bill Nelson is a chief economist and an executive vice president at the Bank Policy Institute. Bill previously was a deputy director of the Division of Monetary Affairs at the Federal Reserve Board where his responsibilities included monetary policy analysis, discount window policy analysis, and financial institution supervision. Bill also worked closely with the BIS working groups and the design of liquidity regulations. Bill rejoins David on Macro Musings to discuss his article titled, "I Don't Know Why She Swallowed a Fly," which looks back at the significant growth of the Federal Reserve, both in its reach and in its size, since the Great Recession of 2007-09. Additionally, Bill and David discuss steps the Fed could take to return to a reasonably sized institution, conducting policy with a light imprint on financial markets.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Bill's SIFMA profile: https://www.sifma.org/people/bill-nelson/

Bill's BPI archive: https://bpi.com/tag/bill-nelson/

Bill's American Banker archive: https://www.americanbanker.com/author/william-nelson-ab3618

Related Links:

*I Don't Know Why She Swallowed a Fly* by Bill Nelson

https://morningconsult.com/opinions/i-dont-know-why-she-swallowed-a-fly/

*Why Do We Need Both Liquidity Regulations and a Lender of Last Resort? A Perspective from Federal Reserve Lending during the 2007-09 U.S. Financial Crisis* by Bill Nelson, Mark Carlson, and Burcu Duygan-Bump

https://www.federalreserve.gov/econresdata/feds/2015/files/2015011pap.pdf

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Arthur Turrell on Economic Data, Modeling, and the Future of Nuclear Energy Aug 16, 2021

Show notes

Arthur Turrell is the deputy director at the data science campus for the UK Office of National Statistics (ONS). Arthur is also a former researcher at the Bank of England and a nuclear fusion scientist. He joins Macro Musings to talk about his work at the Bank of England, the future of economic data, and his new book on nuclear fusion titled, *The Star Builders: Nuclear Fusion and the Race to Power the Planet*.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Arthur's Twitter: @arthurturrell

Arthur's website: http://aeturrell.com/

Arthur's Bank of England profile: https://www.bankofengland.co.uk/research/researchers/arthur-turrell

Related Links:

*The Star Builders: Nuclear Fusion and the Race to Power the Planet* by Arthur Turrell

https://www.simonandschuster.com/books/The-Star-Builders/Arthur-Turrell/9781982130664

*Coding for Economists* by Arthur Turrell

https://aeturrell.github.io/coding-for-economists/intro.html

*Why Software Is Eating The World* by Marc Andreessen

https://www.wsj.com/articles/SB10001424053111903480904576512250915629460

*Solving Heterogeneous General Equilibrium Economic Models with Deep Reinforcement Learning* by Edward Hill, Marco Bardoscia, and Arthur Turrell

https://arxiv.org/pdf/2103.16977.pdf

Princeton's *Net-Zero America* Project: https://netzeroamerica.princeton.edu/?explorer=year&state=national&table=2020&limit=200

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Kate Judge and Anil Kashyap on How to Improve US Financial Stability Aug 09, 2021

Show notes

Kathryn Judge is a professor of law at Columbia Law School and editor of the journal of Financial Regulation. Anil Kashyap is a professor of economics and finance at the University of Chicago and is a member of the Bank of England's financial policy committee. Kate and Anil join David on Macro Musings to discuss their work on the Task Force on Financial Stability that recently released a report on how to improve financial stability in the US. Specifically, they discuss the origins of the Task Force on Financial Stability, the dynamics of the Treasury Market over the past year, why money market funds are still vulnerable despite an evolving set of regulations, the importance of rich and timely data for regulatory bodies and Congress, normalizing a financial stability mandate across regulatory bodies, the outlook of financial stability over the next decade, and much more.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Kate's Twitter: @ProfKateJudge

Kate's Columbia Law profile: https://www.law.columbia.edu/faculty/kathryn-judge

Anil's UChicago profile: https://www.chicagobooth.edu/faculty/directory/k/anil-kashyap

Anil's NBER archive: https://www.nber.org/people/anil_kashyap?page=1&perPage=50

Related Links:

Report of the Task Force on Financial Stability:

https://www.brookings.edu/research/report-of-the-task-force-on-financial-stability/

*Financial Stability Considerations and Monetary Policy* by Anil K. Kashyap and Caspar Siegert

https://www.ijcb.org/journal/ijcb2002_5.htm

*The Impact of Treasury Supply on Financial Sector Lending and Stability* by Arvind Krishnamurthy and Annette Vissing-Jorgensen

https://www.sciencedirect.com/science/article/abs/pii/S0304405X15001518

*Reforming the Macroprudential Regulatory Architecture in the US* by Kathryn Judge and Anil Kashyap

https://voxeu.org/article/reforming-macroprudential-regulatory-architecture-us

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Larry White on Stablecoins, Money Market Funds, and the History of Free Banking Aug 02, 2021

Show notes

Larry White is a professor of economics at George Mason University and is a returning guest to the show. He rejoins Macro Musings to talk about stablecoins, the history of free banking, and money market funds reform. Specifically, David and Larry also discuss the critiques levied against stablecoins, their impact on the banking system, and why stablecoins could be considered the new version of money market mutual funds.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Larry's Twitter: @lawrencewhite1

Larry's GMU profile: https://economics.gmu.edu/people/lwhite11

Larry's Alt-M profile: https://www.alt-m.org/author/white/

Related Links:

*Should We Fear Stablecoins?* by Larry White

https://www.alt-m.org/2021/06/24/should-we-fear-stablecoins/

*Taming Wildcat Stablecoins* by Gary Gorton and Jeffery Zhang

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3888752

*Overview of the Recent Events and Potential Reform Options for Money Market Funds* by the President's Working Group on Financial Markets

https://home.treasury.gov/system/files/136/PWG-MMF-report-final-Dec-2020.pdf

Larry White on India's Demonetization and Austrian Macroeconomics: https://macromusings.libsyn.com/47-larry-white-on-indias-demonetization-and-austrian-macroeconomics

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Jerusalem Demsas on Problems in the US Housing Market and How to Fix Them Jul 26, 2021

Show notes

Jerusalem Demsas is a policy reporter for Vox and joins David on Macro Musings to discuss the state of housing in America and its implications for policy. Specifically, Jerusalem and David discuss the current state of the housing market, whether there is a housing bubble, how the housing shortage creates avenues for discrimination, the dynamics of racism in the US housing market, the impact of zoning laws, and much more.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Jerusalem's Twitter: @JerusalemDemsas

Jerusalem's Vox archive: https://www.vox.com/authors/jerusalem-demsas

Related Links:

*Housing Constraints and Spatial Misallocation* by Chang-Tai Hsieh and Enrico Moretti

https://www.aeaweb.org/articles?id=10.1257/mac.20170388

*Is There a Housing Bubble?* by Jerusalem Demsas

https://www.vox.com/22464801/housing-bubble-market-crash-supply-shortage-great-recession

*Stuck! The Law and Economics of Residential Stagnation* by David Schleicher

https://www.yalelawjournal.org/article/stuck-the-law-and-economics-of-residential-stagnation

*The Housing Shortage Makes Housing Discrimination Much Easier* by Jerusalem Demsas

https://www.vox.com/2021/5/26/22453293/housing-supply-shortage-discrimination-real-estate-cover-letters

*America's Racist Housing Rules Really Can Be Fixed* by Jerusalem Demsas

https://www.vox.com/22252625/america-racist-housing-rules-how-to-fix

*The Fight Over Housing Segregation is Dividing one of America's Most Liberal States* by Jerusalem Demsas

https://www.vox.com/22335749/housing-prices-connecticut-segregation-zoning-reform-democrats-adu-parking-minimum

*Why Does it Cost so Much to Build Things in America* by Jerusalem Demsas

https://www.vox.com/22534714/rail-roads-infrastructure-costs-america

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Scott Sumner on What Milton Friedman Would Think of Monetary Policy Today Jul 19, 2021

Show notes

Scott Sumner is the Ralph G. Hawtrey Chair of Monetary Policy at the Mercatus Center. Scott joins David on Macro Musings to discuss Milton Friedman's views and what he might say about some of the recent developments in monetary policy. Specifically, Scott and David talk about nominal interest rates as indicators of the stance of monetary policy, fiscal austerity as means of reducing excessive aggregate demand, Friedman's critique of the Phillips curve and wage and price controls, what Friedman might have said about the recent inflation numbers, and much more.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Scott's automated Twitter: @MoneyIllusion

Scott's blog: https://www.themoneyillusion.com/

Scott's Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/scott-sumner

Related Links:

*Friedman's Smashing Success* by Scott Sumner

https://www.econlib.org/friedmans-smashing-success/

*Inflation is a Nominal Phenomenon* by Scott Sumner

https://www.econlib.org/inflation-is-a-nominal-phenomenon/

*The Role of Monetary Policy* (1968) by Milton Friedman

https://link.springer.com/chapter/10.1007/978-1-349-24002-9_11

*What Would Milton Friedman Have Thought of Market Monetarism?* by Scott Sumner

https://oxford.universitypressscholarship.com/view/10.1093/acprof:oso/9780198704324.001.0001/acprof-9780198704324-chapter-15

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Skanda Amarnath on Maximum Employment, Inflation, and the Fed's New Framework Jul 12, 2021

Show notes

Skanda Amarnath is the executive director of Employ America and a former hedge fund economist. He rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the fate of the Phillips Curve, the inflation outlook, the Fed's new framework, and his vision for a better monetary policy future. David and Skanda also discuss the Fed's flawed assessment of maximum employment, how to modify the central bank's Summary of Economic Projections, and the significance of capacity constraints vs labor utilization.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Skanda's Twitter: @IrvingSwisher

Skanda's Employ America archive: https://employamerica.org/author/skandaamarnath/

Skanda's Medium profile: https://medium.com/@skanda_97974

Related Links:

*Beyond the Phillips Curve: A Dynamic Approach to Communicating Assessments of 'Maximum Employment'* by Skanda Amarnath and Alex Williams

https://employamerica.medium.com/beyond-the-phillips-curve-a-dynamic-approach-to-communicating-assessments-of-maximum-employment-c3eff48b2fcf

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com

David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Agustin Carstens on Central Banking in Emerging Markets, the Distributional Footprint of Monetary Policy, and Central Bank Digital Currency Jul 05, 2021

Show notes

Agustin Carstens leads the Bank for International Settlements or the BIS in his role as general manager and previously served as the governor of the Bank of Mexico. He also served as the deputy managing director of the International Monetary Fund. Agustin joins David on Macro Musings to discuss the new BIS 2021 annual report. Specifically, David and Agustin discuss the macroeconomic developments of the past year, the distributional footprint of monetary policy, the evolving role of central banking, and the outlook for central bank digital currency (CBDC).

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Agustin's BIS profile: https://www.bis.org/author/agust%C3%ADn_carstens.htm

Related Links:

*Annual Economic Report 2021* by the BIS

https://www.bis.org/publ/arpdf/ar2021e.htm

U.S. Monetary Policy and the Global Financial Cycle* by Silvia Miranda-Agrippino and Hélène Rey

https://academic.oup.com/restud/article/87/6/2754/5834728?login=true

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com

David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth