Macro Musings with David Beckworth

Latest Episodes:

Ajmal Ahmady on the Afghan Economy and the Challenges Facing the Nation's Future Nov 15, 2021

Show notes

Ajmal Ahmady is the former acting governor of the Central Bank of Afghanistan and is now a senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government. Ajmal joins Macro Musings to talk about his experience as a central bank governor in Afghanistan and the challenges now facing the nation's economy. Specifically, David and Ajmal discuss his unique role as the country's central bank chief, the structure of the Afghan monetary system, the state of the nation's economy moving forward, and more.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Ajmal's Twitter: @aahmady

Ajmal's Harvard biography: https://www.hks.harvard.edu/centers/mrcbg/about/senior-fellows#ahmady

Ajmal's research: https://www.hks.harvard.edu/sites/default/files/centers/mrcbg/programs/senior.fellows/2021-22/Ahmady_Research%20Proposal%20(summary).pdf

Related Links:

Ajmal's Twitter thread about Afghanistan's collapse:

https://twitter.com/aahmady/status/1427265049668636674?lang=en

*Why Afghanistan Fell: An Insider's Account of What Went Wrong* by Ajmal Ahmady

https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/afghanistan/2021-10-11/why-afghanistan-fell

*Afghanistan Faces an Economic Crisis, as Well as a Humanitarian One* by Ajmal Ahmady

https://www.ft.com/stream/75ed5ed6-883f-402c-b04b-4d1ddd5ab670

*The Taliban Can't Print Cash and Other Afghan Business Challenges* by Ajmal Ahmady

https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2021-09-07/the-taliban-can-t-mint-money-and-other-business-challenges-in-afghanistan

*Severe Drought Adds to Afghanistan's Woes, Endangering Millions as Economy Collapses* by Sune Engel Rasmussen

https://www.wsj.com/articles/severe-drought-adds-to-afghanistans-woes-endangering-millions-as-economy-collapses-11633872935#:~:text=Severe%20Drought%20Adds%20to%20Afghanistan's,Millions%20as%20Economy%20Collapses%20%2D%20WSJ&text=The%20drought%20has%20compounded%20the,Taliban%20overthrew%20the%20previous%20government.

*Regional Power Back Aid for Afghanistan as Russia Hosts the Taliban* by Aljazeera

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2021/10/20/russia-hosts-taliban-for-talks-but-warns-no-recognition-for-now

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Peter Stella on the Fiscal Theory of the Price Level Nov 08, 2021

Show notes

Peter Stella is the former Head of the IMF Central Banking division and has researched and written extensively on safe assets, collateral and central bank operations. Peter now hosts a website Central Banking Archeology. Peter joins David on Macro Musings to discuss the role of money and its relationship to inflation as well as its relationship to the payment system. Specifically, David and Peter discuss the fiscal theory of the price level, how rising indebtedness can signal higher inflation in the future, the implications of the fiscal theory for contemporary fiscal and monetary policy going forward, and much more.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Peter's Twitter: @Stellar_Consult

Peter's website: https://www.centralbankarchaeology.com/

Peter's Voxeu profile: https://voxeu.org/users/peterstella0

Peter's Research Gate archive: https://www.researchgate.net/profile/Peter_Stella

Related Links:

*Some Incredible Monetarist Arithmetic* by Peter Stella

https://www.centralbankarchaeology.com/post/some-incredible-monetarist-arithmetic

*Some Alternative Monetary Facts* by Peter Stella, Manmohan Singh, and Apoorv Bhargava

https://www.imf.org/en/Publications/WP/Issues/2021/01/08/Some-Alternative-Monetary-Facts-49975

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Robert Orr on Supply Side Bottlenecks in the US Healthcare System and Solutions for Reform Nov 01, 2021

Show notes

Robert Orr is a policy analyst at the Niskanen Center where he focuses on welfare, healthcare, and labor market policy. Robert joins Macro Musings to talk about one of the more important sectors of the US economy, healthcare, and some of the biggest supply side bottlenecks the industry faces. Specifically, David and Robert discuss the uniqueness of the US healthcare system, the reason for massive spending within the healthcare industry, and how to fix the supply bottlenecks that have emerged.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Robert's Twitter: @Robert_t_Orr

Robert's Niskanen profile: https://www.niskanencenter.org/author/robert-orr/

Related Links:

*The Planning of U.S. Physician Shortages* by Robert Orr

https://www.niskanencenter.org/the-planning-of-u-s-physician-shortages/

*The U.S. Has Much to Gain from More Doctors* by Robert Orr

https://www.niskanencenter.org/the-u-s-has-much-to-gain-from-more-doctors/

*Unmatched: Repairing the U.S. Medical Residency Pipeline* by Robert Orr

https://www.niskanencenter.org/the-u-s-has-much-to-gain-from-more-doctors/

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

George Selgin on Bitcoin and the Future of CBDCs Oct 25, 2021

Show notes

George Selgin is the director emeritus of the Cato Institute's Center for Monetary and Financial Alternatives and is a returning guest to Macro Musings. George rejoins David on the podcast to discuss cryptocurrency, stable coins, CBDCs, and a push for a higher inflation target. Specifically, George and David discuss the category of 'synthetic commodity money' and how bitcoin is a potential example, the current state of Bitcoin amidst El Salvador's transition to Bitcoin as its legal tender, the role of fintechs in the potential future of a Fed central bank digital currency, and much more.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

George's Twitter: @GeorgeSelgin

George's Cato Institute profile: https://www.cato.org/people/george-selgin

Related Links:

*Synthetic Commodity Money* by George Selgin

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=2000118

*The Denationalization of Money* by F.A. Hayek

https://www.amazon.com/Denationalization-Money-Analysis-Concurrent-Currencies/dp/0255360878

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Peter Conti-Brown on the Fed Trading Scandal, the Fed Chair Nomination Process, and Central Bank Governance Oct 18, 2021

Show notes

Peter Conti-Brown is a legal scholar and financial historian at the University of Pennsylvania and is a nonresident fellow in economic studies at the Brookings Institution. Peter's scholarship focuses on the legal and historical issues of the Federal Reserve system, and he rejoins Macro Musings to talk about the many facets of Fed governance. David and Peter specifically discuss the Federal Reserve's recent trading scandal, the Fed Chair nomination process, the central bank's role in fighting climate change, and much more.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Peter's Twitter: @PeterContiBrown

Peter's Brookings profile: https://www.brookings.edu/author/peter-conti-brown/

Peter's Wharton profile: https://lgst.wharton.upenn.edu/profile/petercb/

Related Links:

*Technocratic Pragmatism, Bureaucratic Expertise, and the Federal Reserve* by Peter Conti-Brown and David Wishnick

https://www.yalelawjournal.org/feature/technocratic-pragmatism-bureaucratic-expertise-and-the-federal-reserve

*Restoring the Promise of Federal Reserve Governance* by Peter Conti-Brown

https://www.mercatus.org/publications/monetary-policy/restoring-promise-fed-governance#:~:text=In%20%E2%80%9CRestoring%20the%20Promise%20of,it%20was%20designed%20to%20be.

Peter Conti-Brown on *Restoring the Promise of Federal Reserve Governance*: https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/01062020/peter-conti-brown-restoring-promise-federal-reserve-governance

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Scott Sumner on The Money Illusion Oct 11, 2021

Show notes

Scott Sumner is David's colleague and the Ralph G. Hawtrey Chair of Monetary Policy at the Mercatus Center. Scott is also a returning guest to the podcast and joins David on Macro Musings to discuss his new book, The Money Illusion: Market Monetarism, the Great Recession, and the Future of Monetary Policy. Specifically, David and Scott discuss common misconceptions about the 2008-09 Recession, why bubble narratives too often miss the mark when explaining rising asset prices, whether the Fed's adoption of average inflation targeting signals that it is moving toward a level target, and much more.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Scott's Twitter: @ScottSumnerTMI

Scott's blog: https://www.themoneyillusion.com/

Scott's Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/scott-sumner

Related Links:

*The Money Illusion: Market Monetarism, the Great Recession, and the Future of Monetary Policy*

By Scott Sumner

https://www.mercatus.org/publications/monetary-policy/money-illusion-market-monetarism-great-recession-and-future-monetary

*Eight Centuries of Global Real Interest Rates, R-G, and the 'Suprasecular' Decline, 1311–2018* by Paul Schmelzing

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3485734

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Chris Russo on the 2021 Debt Limit Fight, Its Potential Impacts, and Solutions for Reform Oct 04, 2021

Show notes

Chris Russo is a post-graduate research fellow in the Monetary Policy Program of the Mercatus Center at George Mason University and is a former economist at the New York Federal Reserve Bank. He re-joins Macro Musings to talk about the growing concerns over the US debt ceiling, what it could mean for the economy, and how to fix the issue.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Chris's Twitter: @RussoEcon

Chris's Mercatus profile: https://www.mercatus.org/scholars/christopher-russo

Chris's Github site: https://christopher-russo.github.io/about/

Related Links:

*Permanently Suspend the Debt Limit* by Christopher Russo

https://thehill.com/opinion/finance/553827-permanently-suspend-the-debt-limit

*What the Fed Will Do if Congress Doesn't Fix the Debt Ceiling* by Christopher Russo

https://www.barrons.com/articles/inside-the-feds-playbook-for-a-dollar-default-51622055588

*America's Need to Pay Its Bills Has Spawned a Political Game* by Jim Tankersley

https://www.nytimes.com/2021/09/26/business/economy/america-debt-limit-political-game.html

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com

David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Hanno Lustig on Dollar Dominance, Dollar Safety, and the Global Financial Cycle Sep 27, 2021

Show notes

Hanno Lustig is a professor of finance at Stanford University, and a senior fellow at the Stanford Institute for Economic Policy Research. Hanno joins David on Macro Musings to discuss his work on dollar safety, safe assets, convenience yields, and more. More specifically, Hanno and David discuss the dollar dominance in global financial markets, how the US's status as the world's safe asset provider reinforces its exorbitant privilege in money markets, whether the countercyclical demand for safe assets can help explain why US inflation has been so low this past decade, how years of low interest rate policy might have contributed to the growing wealth gap, and much more.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Hanno's Twitter: @HannoLustig

Hanno's Stanford profile: https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/faculty/hanno-lustig

Related Links:

*Dollar Safety and the Global Financial Cycle* by Zhengyang Jiang, Arvind Krishnamurthy, and Hanno Lustig

https://www.gsb.stanford.edu/faculty-research/working-papers/dollar-safety-global-financial-cycle

*Mind the Gap in Sovereign Debt Markets: The U.S. Treasury basis and the Dollar Risk Factor* by Arvind Krishnamurthy and Hanno Lustig

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3443231

*Manufacturing Risk-Free Government Debt* by Zhengyang Jiang, Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, and Mindy Z. Xiaolan

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3646430

*US Government Debt Valuation Puzzle* by Zhengyang Jiang, Hanno Lustig, Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh, and Mindy Z. Xiaolan

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3333517

*The Fiscal Theory of Price Level with a Bubble* by Markus K. Brunnermeier, Sebastian A. Merkel and Yuliy Sannikov

https://www.nber.org/papers/w27116

*Debt As Safe Asset: Mining the Bubble* by Markus K. Brunnermeier, Sebastian Merkel, and Yuliy Sannikov

https://scholar.princeton.edu/markus/publications/debt-safe-asset-mining-bubble

*The Safety Trap* by Ricardo J. Caballero and Emmanuel Farhi

https://www.nber.org/papers/w19927

*Financial and Total Wealth Inequality with Declining Interest Rates* by Daniel Greenwald, Matteo Leombroni, Hanno Lustig, and Stijn Van Nieuwerburgh

https://papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cfm?abstract_id=3789220

*The Saving Glut of the Rich* by Atif Mian, Ludwig Straub, and Amir Sufi

https://scholar.harvard.edu/straub/publications/saving-glut-rich-and-rise-household-debt

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Megan Greene on the Future of CBDC and How Central Banks Should Respond to Climate Change Sep 20, 2021

Show notes

Megan Greene is a senior fellow at the Harvard Kennedy School of Government and was formerly the global chief economist at Manulife John Hancock Asset Management. Megan is also a returning guest to the podcast and rejoins David to talk about the prospects of central bank digital currency as well as how to conduct climate change policy from a central banking angle.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Megan's Twitter: @economistmeg

Megan's website: https://economistmeg.com/about/

Megan's Financial Times archive: https://www.ft.com/megan-greene

Related Links:

*Central Banks Need to Go Slow on Digital Currencies* by Megan Greene

https://www.ft.com/content/21e3affe-8c57-4bac-b9c5-21b645e93d7c

*Adapting Central Bank Operations to a Hotter World: Reviewing Some Options* by the Network for Greening the Financial System

https://www.ngfs.net/sites/default/files/media/2021/06/17/ngfs_monetary_policy_operations_final.pdf

*Megan Greene and Eric Lonergan on Dual Interest Rates and the Prospects of Average Inflation Targeting*

https://www.mercatus.org/bridge/podcasts/10052020/megan-greene-and-eric-lonergan-dual-interest-rates-and-prospects-average

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth

Joseph Wang on the Fed's Impact on Money Markets Sep 13, 2021

Show notes

Joseph Wang is a former senior trader on the open market desk at the Federal Reserve Bank in New York and the author of the book Central Banking 101. He also blogs at fedguy.com and is active on Twitter. Joseph joins Macro Musings to discuss what has happened at the Fed from the operational side, and we consider its implications for money markets. Specifically, Joseph and David discuss recent events from the perspective of the Federal Reserve trading desk, Joseph's conception of a two-tiered monetary system, continued dollar dominance in global money markets, whether the Fed's overnight repo facility is truly a temporary facility or trending towards a permanent one, and much more.

Transcript for the episode can be found here.

Joseph's Twitter: @FedGuy12

Joseph's website: http://fedguy.com/

Related Links:

*QE Zombifies Money Markets* by Joseph Wang

https://fedguy.com/qe-zombifies-money-markets/

*The Gravitational Pull of Zero* by Joseph Wang

https://fedguy.com/the-gravitational-pull-of-zero/

*RRP At The ZLB* by Joseph Wang

https://fedguy.com/rrp-at-the-zlb/

David's blog: macromarketmusings.blogspot.com David's Twitter: @DavidBeckworth