Macro Horizons

Latest Episodes:

The Home Stretch - High Quality Credit Spreads Nov 30, 2022

Show notes

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss whether the recent rally in credit will be sustained into the new year or is merely another bear market rally. Other topics include 2023 supply projections in high grade and SSA markets, preferred positioning along the spread curve, and the potential for a wave of rating downgrades in 2023.

Talking Turkey - The Week Ahead Nov 23, 2022

Show notes

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of November 28th, 2022, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Giving Thanks, Taking Stock - The Week Ahead Nov 18, 2022

Show notes

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of November 21st, 2022, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Don’t Lose Sight of the Forest - High Quality Credit Spreads Nov 16, 2022

Show notes

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss the strong rally in credit following Thursday’s CPI print and discuss the level at which relative value will no longer favor overweight positions in credit. Other topics include recent ranges in credit, fair value estimates for spreads, and the health of corporate balance sheets heading into a likely economic slowdown in 2023.

Red Dot State of Mind - The Week Ahead Nov 10, 2022

Show notes

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of November 14th, 2022, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Falling Back - The Week Ahead Nov 04, 2022

Show notes

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of November 7th, 2022, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Reactions to the November FOMC - High Quality Credit Spreads Nov 02, 2022

Show notes

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss their takeaways from the November FOMC meeting and volatile market reaction to a dovish statement followed by messaging of a higher terminal rate. Other topics include market expectations for a pivot, monetary policy lags, and the narrowing window for a soft landing.

Terminal Volatility - Monthly Roundtable Oct 31, 2022

Show notes

Margaret Kerins along with Ian Lyngen, Ben Reitzes, Greg Anderson, Stephen Gallo, Dan Krieter, Dan Belton and Ben Jeffery from BMO Capital Markets’ FICC Macro Strategy team discuss the upcoming FOMC meeting and whether or not the Fed can actually be credible about forward guidance for upcoming meetings and holding terminal after messaging back in May that 50 bp rate hikes should be on the table for the next few meetings and then actually raising rates by 75 bp at each meeting since then coupled with the huge revisions to the dot plot from June to September. The team discusses economic uncertainty and geopolitical risks and how these factors impact our outlook for US and Canadian Rates, IG credit, and foreign exchange.

All Powell's Eve - The Week Ahead Oct 28, 2022

Show notes

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of October 31st, 2022, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Happy Holidays Ahead? - High Quality Credit Spreads Oct 26, 2022

Show notes

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss how the events of the past week alter their views on credit into year-end and early next year. Topics include whether the Fed’s messaging last week constitutes a pivot, improving primary markets, and the likely path of market technicals into the end of the year.

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