Macro Horizons

Latest Episodes:

Pricing Perfection - High Quality Credit Spreads Jan 18, 2023

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Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss the sharp rally in credit markets and what levels likely mark attractive selling points. Other topics include the dislocation between Fed messaging and market pricing, the fair value for credit spreads, and developments in primary markets.

Downshift to Terminal - The Week Ahead Jan 13, 2023

Show notes

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of January 17th, 2023, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Terminal Approaching - Monthly Roundtable Jan 10, 2023

Show notes

Ian Lyngen along with Ben Reitzes, Greg Anderson, Stephen Gallo, Dan Krieter, Dan Belton and Ben Jeffery from BMO Capital Markets’ FICC Macro Strategy team bring their outlook for US and Canadian Rates, IG credit, and foreign exchange as the Fed arrives at terminal. Across geographies, timing the resteepening of the yield curve remains topical, and while headwinds to the global economy remain relevant in evaluating the path forward for spreads and FX, the data continues to hold up well. Given the market’s attempt to pull forward rate cuts despite consistent messaging from the Fed of their intention to bring rates higher and keep them there, the challenge will quickly become remaining committed to policy in restrictive territory and what that means for markets and the real economy.

All Eyes on CPI - The Week Ahead Jan 06, 2023

Show notes

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of January 9th, 2023, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Holiday Special - The Week Ahead Dec 22, 2022

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Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of December 27th, 2022, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

Long Run, All Terminal - The Week Ahead Dec 16, 2022

Show notes

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of December 19th, 2022, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

2023 Outlook - High Quality Credit Spreads Dec 15, 2022

Show notes

Dan Krieter and Dan Belton discuss their outlook for credit in 2023. Topics include spread targets, relative value, the fundamental and technical factors likely to drive credit, swap spreads, and the risks to their outlook.

Yuletide Bonds - The Week Ahead Dec 09, 2022

Show notes

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of December 12th, 2022, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

2023 Outlook - Monthly Roundtable Dec 06, 2022

Show notes

Margaret Kerins along with Ian Lyngen, Ben Reitzes, Greg Anderson, Stephen Gallo, Dan Krieter, Dan Belton and Ben Jeffery from BMO Capital Markets’ FICC Macro Strategy team bring their outlook for US and Canadian Rates, IG credit, and foreign exchange 2023 as the Fed remains committed to containing inflation and the prior rate hikes begin to transmit into the economy. As the fed funds rate continues to move higher, the curve inversion in 2s10s should deepen and persist until the market begins to price a slowing economy and decelerating inflation. At this point, 2s10s should begin to bull steepen and the timing of this will be one of the main narratives in US rates. Another main theme will be the pricing of the Fed’s reaction function to an economic downturn, which the team expects to be much slower than in the past and how this impacts credit spreads and foreign exchange. The discussion includes a rapid fire outlook at the beginning of the discussion.

Odd Odds - The Week Ahead Dec 02, 2022

Show notes

Ian Lyngen and Ben Jeffery bring you their thoughts on the U.S. Rates market for the upcoming week of December 5th, 2022, and respond to questions submitted by listeners and clients.

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