Macro Hive Conversations With Bilal Hafeez

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Ep. 302: Vania Stavrakeva on Macro News, Investor Flows and Trading Markets Apr 04, 2025

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Vania Stavrakeva is an Assistant Professor of Economics at the London Business School and has a PhD from Harvard. She has extensively studied exchange rate determination and how monetary policy, macroeconomics news and beliefs impact exchange rate movements. She has also produced innovative research on the global network of equity holdings and their impact on equity, fixed income and exchange rate markets. This podcast covers new approaches to understand exchange rate drivers, how lagged macro news impacts markets, investor holdings and asset prices, and much more.

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Ep. 301: Andrew Polk on China's Bet on Tech Supremacy Mar 28, 2025

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Andrew Polk is the co-founder and head of economic research at Trivium China, a Beijing-based strategic advisory firm. Before founding Trivium, he was China director at Medley Global Advisors. Previously, he was the resident China economist at The Conference Board's China Center for Economics and Business. Andrew is the co-author of The Long, Soft Fall in Chinese Growth (The Conference Board, 2015) and maintains a deep network of professional contacts in the official, academic, and business communities in China (built over a decade of living in China and working on China issues). This podcast covers China's unique development model, Xi Jinping's economic philosophy, transitioning from property-driven growth to new industries, and much more.

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Ep. 300: Gary Gerstle on Decoding Trump: Power & Chaos (Live at Cambridge University) Mar 21, 2025

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Gary Gerstle is the Paul Mellon Professor of American History Emeritus and Paul Mellon Director of Research at the University of Cambridge. He is the author and editor of more than ten books, including two prize winners, American Crucible: Race and Nation in the Twentieth Century (2017) and Liberty and Coercion: The Paradox of American Government from the Founding to the Present (2015). His most recent book, The Rise and Fall of the Neoliberal Order: America and the World in the Free Market Era (2022), was chosen as a Best Book of 2022 by the Financial Times and Prospect Magazine. He has also testified before the US Congress on immigration matters. This podcast was recorded before a live audience at the University of Cambridge. It covered differences between Trump 2.0 and Trump 1.0, unitary executive and the increasing concentration of power in the presidency, public displeasure with the government, inefficient federal government, and DOGE, and much more.

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Ep. 259: Thanos Papasavvas on Trump's (Unsurprising) Geopolitical Shock Mar 14, 2025

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Thanos is the Founder and CIO of ABP Invest, which he founded in 2015. He began his career as an Economist for the UK Government Economic Service through the Civil Service Fast Stream during the ERM Crisis of 1992. Thanos then embarked on a 20-year asset management career with CSFB Investment Management (Credit Suisse) and Investec Asset Management (Ninety-One) managing assets across fixed income, emerging markets, multi-asset and currency management. In this podcast, we discuss Russia-Ukraine and Trump vs EU, whether Europe can step up, US vs China, and much more.

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Ep. 258: Randy Schwimmer on Why Private Credit Is Performing Mar 07, 2025

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Randy Schwimmer is Vice Chairman of Churchill, where he oversees the Investor Solutions Group. Previously, he served as Co-Head of Senior Lending, responsible for senior lending origination and capital markets. Randy also serves on the firm's Executive Committee and Senior Lending Investment Committee. Randy is also the Founder and Publisher of The Lead Left, Churchill's weekly newsletter reviewing deals and trends in the capital markets. He also produces Private Capital Call, a monthly podcast. Prior to Churchill, Randy held senior roles at BNP Paribas and JP Morgan Chase. In this podcast, we discuss how macro is affecting private credit, what companies make good private credit candidates, deal activity, M&A and LBOs, and much more.

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Ep. 257: Joe Lavorgna on Trump Supercharging US Growth Feb 28, 2025

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Joe Lavorgna is a Managing Director and Chief Economist for SMBC Nikko Securities. He was previously the Chief Economist for the Americas at Natixis. While there, Joe took a one-year leave of absence to serve in the Trump administration, where he was Special Assistant to the President, and Chief Economist of the National Economic Council. Prior to Natixis, Joe spent 20 years with Deutsche Bank Securities in the Global Markets Division, where he was considered one of the leading Wall Street economists. Joe is also a Senior Fellow at the America First Policy Institute, a Washington, D.C.-based think tank. In this podcast, we discuss what it was like working for Trump, why Trump is now more effective, thoughts on tariffs, taxes and immigration, and much more.

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Ep. 256: Max Stier on Trump Ripping Up Government Feb 21, 2025

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Max Stier is President and CEO of the Partnership for Public Service. The Partnership has been widely praised as a thought leader on federal government management issues. Max has worked previously in all three branches of the federal government. Most recently, Max worked at the Department of Housing and Urban Development, having served as the Deputy General Counsel for Litigation. In this podcast, we discuss how Presidential transitions typically work, problems with Federal government, why tearing down government will not work, and much more.

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Ep. 255: Chris Johnson on Trump vs China Feb 14, 2025

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Chris Johnson spent nearly two decades at the CIA focusing on China and Asia. Today, Chris is the President and CEO of China Strategies Group. He also serves as a Senior Fellow on Chinese Politics at the Asia Society Policy Institute's Center for China Analysis and is a senior fellow in the office of the president at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), the preeminent foreign and security policy think tank in Washington, DC. In this podcast, we discuss working at the CIA, what type of leader is Chinese President Xi Jinping, how US policy towards China has evolved since Obama, and much more.

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Ep. 254: Jonny Matthews on US Economy and Why the Fed Will Not Cut in 2025 Feb 07, 2025

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Jonny Matthews is a senior portfolio manager at Fortem Capital and creator of SuperMacro, an institutional-level macroeconomic research platform. Before that, he spent 12 years as a partner at Brevan Howard, where he managed a $500 million investment portfolio. Earlier in his career, Johny spent 11 years at Citigroup, leading a team in equity derivatives trading following the acquisition of Salomon Brothers, where he began his career. His expertise spans fixed income, equities, FX, credit, and derivatives strategies, including relative value and volatility arbitrage trading. This podcast covers lessons learned during his time at Saloman Brothers and Brevan Howard, experience of trading before the GFC, thoughts on the US economy – growth, inflation and tariffs, and much more.

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Ep. 253: Barry Eichengreen on Trump Trade Policy, Dollar Status and Debt Crises Jan 31, 2025

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Barry Eichengreen, Professor of Economics and Political Science at the University of California, Berkeley, is a former senior policy adviser at the International Monetary Fund. He is the author of many books, including 'In Defense of Public Debt' (Oxford University Press, 2021). In this podcast, we discuss the inflation regime, which central banks are most independent, whether Trump can influence the Fed, and much more.

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