Lowy Institute

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Belt and Road - The Next Phase, with Nadege Rolland and Wang Yiwei Oct 07, 2019

Show notes

The next phase of China's massive Belt and Road Initiative is shifting emphasis after foreign criticism about debt-trap diplomacy, and concerns about corruption, local impacts and environmental issues. Less talk about grand infrastructure projects like ports and rail; more about ‘soft infrastructure’ like special economic zones and people to people exchanges. The new BRI, China says, will be ‘lean, clean and green'. But how much in the BRI has really changed, and is there any harm in the West embracing China’s vision for an interconnected world?
Episode 11 of the Lowy Institute’s podcast takes a look at the second phase of the BRI, from two perspectives. Chinese foreign policy expert and former Chinese diplomat to the EU, Professor Wang Yiwei outlines China's perspective; and the US-based, French BRI expert Nadège Rolland (at 15:30) takes a more critical view. Rules Based Audio is hosted by Kelsey Munro and powered by the Lowy Institute.

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Panel discussion: Australian public opinion at a time of global uncertainty Sep 30, 2019

Show notes

Australia finds itself in an increasingly precarious position. The relationship between Australia’s traditional ally, the United States, and its largest trading partner, China, continues its precipitous decline. Four out of Australia’s top five trading partners are embroiled in trade wars, and a global economic slowdown is underway. At the same time, Beijing’s deepening embrace of authoritarianism and expanding global ambitions continue to rattle Australia’s regional allies and partners.
As our political leaders grapple with new and daunting foreign policy challenges, what do Australians think about the world? The Lowy Institute Poll has surveyed Australians on their views for the past 15 years. In the span of a generation, the Poll has uncovered striking changes in public opinion about Australia’s most important neighbours and partners as well as the challenges to national security and prosperity.
What is driving these changing views? And how should our political leaders respond?
The Lowy Institute hosted a panel discussion with Natasha Kassam, Director of the 2019 Lowy Institute Poll; Greg Sheridan, foreign editor for The Australian; Dr Danielle Chubb, Senior Lecturer in International Relations at Deakin University, and David Olsson, former Managing Partner of international law firm King & Wood Mallesons; moderated by Daniel Flitton, Managing Editor of the Lowy Institute’s international magazine, The Interpreter.
This event was presented by Lowy Institute at the NGV.

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Socialist paradise: The new North Korea under Kim Jong-un, with Anna Fifield Sep 23, 2019

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The Washington Post Beijing bureau chief and author Anna Fifield talks with host Kelsey Munro about life and politics in North Korea today. Kim Jong-un has permitted strategic changes to the economy of the isolated country, even as he keeps an iron grip on politics and citizens' freedoms. These days, for the wealthy urban dwellers in Pyongyang, there are gleaming apartment towers, yoga classes and craft beer bars - even if they don't have a reliable electricity supply. Fifield argues the dictator’s grandson, who few thought would last a year in the job, has surprisingly proved a ruthless, adept and confident leader and diplomat, forcing China and the US to the table without giving up anything, including his nukes.
Anna Fifield is the author of the new book ‘The Great Successor: The Secret Rise and Rule of Kim Jong-un’. She has been to North Korea over a dozen times, and interviewed hundreds of escapees from the country, including tracking down members of the Kim family and former inner circle living in exile. She was formerly the Post's bureau chief in Tokyo from 2014 to 2018, covering Japan and the Koreas.

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Mapping aid and influence in the Pacific Islands Sep 20, 2019

Show notes

The Pacific Islands region has vaulted back to the centre of Australian foreign policy thinking. Prime Minister Morrison has positioned Australia’s “step up” in the region as his signature foreign-policy initiative. Other governments have responded with their own “redial”, “pivot”, “uplift”, and “elevation” plans.
Much of this reaction is being driven by China’s rise, with analysts fearing China will try to leverage its influence – be it debt, diplomacy, or trade – to achieve strategic outcomes, including setting up a military base. Great power competition has returned to the Pacific.
Foreign aid is often the first tool used by nations to engage in this vulnerable region. Each year, more than US$2 billion in foreign aid is invested in the Pacific from more than 60 donors. But aid is often opaque and hard to trace, lacks detail, and is difficult to access. The Lowy Institute Pacific Aid Map fills this gap, providing an analytical too that collates and analyses data on all aid projects in the Pacific.
This event launched the second-year update of the map, which incorporates new data and new functionality, and presented new analysis of Chinese debt diplomacy and its impact on debt sustainability in the Pacific.
Lowy Institute researchers discussed what’s new in the Lowy Institute Pacific Aid Map, and what it can tell us about the broader geopolitical developments playing out in Australia’s immediate region.
Jonathan Pryke is Director of the Lowy Institute Pacific Islands Program. Alexandre Dayant is a Research Fellow in the Lowy Institute Pacific Islands Program, and lead researcher of the Pacific Aid Map. Roland Rajah is Director of the Lowy Institute International Economy Program. The discussion was moderated by Lowy Institute Research Fellow Natasha Kassam.

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An address by Alan Wolff, Deputy Director-General of the World Trade Organization Sep 19, 2019

Show notes

The news today is dominated by trade issues in a way not seen since perhaps the clash between the United States and Japan in the 1980s. The headlines point to a trade war between the United States and China, and strained trade relations between South Korea and Japan. The trading system has not delivered new multilateral agreements during the last five years. The WTO dispute-settlement system appears to be breaking down. It appears to be getting easier to depart from international agreements.
What is the current status of these issues, how do they affect the operations of the WTO, and what (if any) is the good news? What can be achieved by June 2020, when the next formal WTO ministerial meeting will be held? What is the long-term picture for multilateralism? Are regional arrangements going to be the new architecture of the trading system? Is the pendulum swinging permanently away from global value chains?
The Lowy Institute hosted Alan Wolff, Deputy Director-General of the WTO, for a discussion of the risks and opportunities facing world trade at this decisive moment.
Mr Wolff became WTO Deputy Director-General in October 2017, after a long career in international trade, including as chief trade lawyer of the US executive branch, Chairman of the National Foreign Trade Council, as a senior US trade negotiator, and private law practitioner. He has served and advised both Republican and Democratic administrations in the US.

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Bonnie Glaser on US-China rivalry: Global strategic consequences Sep 12, 2019

Show notes

Intensifying strategic competition between the US and China is having ramifications around the globe. The risk of military conflict is growing in the South China Sea and the Taiwan Strait. Global economic growth is slowing, and supply chains are shifting. China and Russia are forging closer ties in response to commonly perceived threats. Will US-China competition abate or increase? How can Australia best navigate these dangerous shoals?
Lowy Institute Nonresident Fellow Bonnie Glaser gave a speech, followed by a Q&A with Michael Fullilove, the Institute’s Executive Director.
Bonnie Glaser is a Nonresident Fellow at the Lowy Institute and senior adviser for Asia at the Center for Strategic and International Studies (CSIS), where she directs the CSIS China Power Project. Ms Glaser is an expert on Chinese foreign and security policy, and has served as a consultant for several US government agencies including the Departments of Defense and State. Ms Glaser has published widely in academic journals such as Washington Quarterly and International Security as well as leading newspapers including the New York Times and International Herald Tribune.

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Richard Baldwin on The Globotics Upheaval: Globalization, Robotics, and the Future of Work Sep 11, 2019

Show notes

The last wave of globalisation delivered enormous economic benefits. But the massive social disruption and displacement fell disproportionately on less-skilled workers, helping to spawn the current populist revolt. The next wave of globalisation, however, might prove different, as emerging technologies combine with global economic forces to create a whole new set of opportunities and challenges.
Richard Baldwin, one of the world's leading globalisation experts, argues that the inhuman speed of this transformation threatens to overwhelm our capacity to adapt. Digital technology is allowing talented foreigners to telecommute into our workplaces and compete for service and professional jobs. Instant machine translation is melting language barriers, so the ranks of these "tele-migrants" will soon include almost every educated person in the world. The combination of globalisation and rising automation means the next wave of disruption could risk a globotics upheaval that threatens the very foundations of the liberal welfare state.
Professor Baldwin gave a talk on his new book, 'The Globotics Upheaval: Globalization, Robotics, and the Future of Work.'
You can purchase copies of 'The Globotics Upheaval' from Booktopia, Amazon AU and Hachette Australia.

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Panel discussion: What can we expect from Jokowi’s second term? Sep 10, 2019

Show notes

Indonesian President Joko Widodo was decisively re-elected in April but his second, and final, term in office looks set to be anything but plain sailing. The election revealed deep divides in the world’s most populous Muslim-majority nation, with politics polarised along religious lines. The economy remains sluggish despite promises of structural reforms to unlock rapid growth. And Indonesia’s democratic system, long seen as a beacon of progress, is facing intensifying challenges, from crackdowns on free speech to a deterioration in the protection of minority rights.
The Indonesia Update has been an annual event held by the Australian National University in Canberra since 1983; this panel discussion was part of the 14th abbreviated Sydney edition held by the Lowy Institute.
Dr Eve Warburton is a Postdoctoral Fellow at the National University of Singapore’s Asia Research Institute. Dr Warburton received her PhD in 2018 from the Australian National University’s Coral Bell School of Asia and Pacific Affairs, where she researched the political economy of economic nationalism in Indonesia’s natural resource industries.
Burhanuddin Muhtadi is a Senior Lecturer at the Faculty of Social and Political Sciences, State Islamic University, Jakarta. He is also an executive director of Indonesian Political Indicator and Director of Public Affairs at Indonesian Survey Institute (LSI).
Dr Martin Daniel Siyaranamual is an applied microeconomist with broad empirical interests. He earned a doctoral degree in economics from Ca’ Foscari University of Venice, Italy and a bachelor’s degree in economics from Padjadjaran University, where he is also a lecturer at the department of economics.
The discussion was chaired by Ben Bland, the Director of the Lowy Institute's Southeast Asia Project.

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Kremlinology: What does Russia want? with Yevgenia Albats and Bobo Lo Sep 09, 2019

Show notes

What does Russia want in the world? The dissident Russian journalist and academic Yevgenia Albats talks to Rules Based Audio host Kelsey Munro about how President Vladimir Putin has successfully dominated Russian politics for two decades; and then former Moscow-based diplomat and veteran analyst Bobo Lo discusses Russian foreign policy and worldview, and whether Russia is forming an authoritarian alliance with China.

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Panel discussion: A nation divided? Islam, politics and polarisation Sep 09, 2019

Show notes

Indonesian President Joko Widodo was decisively re-elected in April but his second, and final, term in office looks set to be anything but plain sailing. The election revealed deep divides in the world’s most populous Muslim-majority nation, with politics polarised along religious lines. The economy remains sluggish despite promises of structural reforms to unlock rapid growth. And Indonesia’s democratic system, long seen as a beacon of progress, is facing intensifying challenges, from crackdowns on free speech to a deterioration in the protection of minority rights.
The Indonesia Update has been an annual event held by the Australian National University in Canberra since 1983; this panel discussion was part of the 14th abbreviated Sydney edition held by the Lowy Institute.
Edward Aspinall is a professor in the Coral Bell School of Asia Pacific Affairs, Australian National University. He is a specialist in the politics of Southeast Asia, especially Indonesia.
Nava Nuraniyah has been an analyst the Jakarta-based Institute for Policy Analysis of Conflict (IPAC) since 2015, and her research interests include political Islam as well as the evolution of extremism in South East Asia, including the role of women.
The discussion was chaired by Ben Bland, the Director of the Lowy Institute's Southeast Asia Project.

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