Lowy Institute

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Panel discussion: The year ahead (Sydney) Jan 29, 2020

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The Lowy Institute hosted a panel discussion with Institute experts in Sydney on the key issues likely to dominate the international agenda in 2020.
Director of Research Alex Oliver chaired an expert panel including Lowy Institute Senior Fellow Richard McGregor; Hervé Lemahieu, Director of the Asian Power and Diplomacy Program; Rodger Shanahan, Research Fellow, West Asia Program; and Shane McLeod, Research Fellow with the Australia-PNG Network.

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Panel discussion: Iran - Where to from here? Jan 23, 2020

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The new year has seen tensions between the United States and Iran increase to levels rarely seen before. The assassination of Maj. Gen. Qasem Soleimani, the ballistic missile response from Iran, and then the tragic downing of Ukraine International Airlines Flight 752, have yet again focused the world’s attention on this region. The vision of enormous crowds that turned out for Soleimani’s funeral procession, contrasted with the small but vocal crowds in response to Tehran’s shooting down of Flight 752, show how difficult it can be to understand how Iranian society sees the actions of the Iranian and US governments and Iran’s place in the region and the world.
To better understand the situation in Iran and how Iranians view recent events, Lowy Institute Research Fellow Dr Rodger Shanahan hosted a panel discussion with Dr Amir Mogadam from the University of Newcastle, Mahmoud Pargoo from the Australian Catholic University, and Mrs Azadeh Davachi from Deakin University to discuss the current tensions in the Gulf from US and Iranian policy perspectives.

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Panel discussion: Avoiding war - how states negotiate Dec 18, 2019

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With the threat of armed conflict looming more seriously over Asia than it has in decades, Oriana Skylar Mastro discussed Asian approaches to diplomacy during war. Professor Mastro’s new book, 'The Costs of Conversation', covers the diplomatic decisions of China and India in past conflicts in Asia and provides signposts for crisis management and conflicts in the future. After a war breaks out, what factors influence states’ decisions to talk to their opponent, and when might their position on wartime diplomacy change? How do we get from only fighting to also talking?
The Lowy Institute hosted a panel discussion moderated by Natasha Kassam, Research Fellow at the Lowy Institute, to discuss the obstacles to peace talks in wartime.
Professor Oriana Skylar Mastro is an assistant professor of security studies at the Edmund A. Walsh School of Foreign Service at Georgetown University, a Resident Scholar at the American Enterprise Institute, and an officer in the United States Air Force Reserve.
Professor James Goldrick AO CSC is an Adjunct Professor of the University of New South Wales, Visiting Fellow of the Sea Power Centre – Australia, and a Professorial Fellow of the Australian National Centre for Ocean Resources and Security. He spent 38 years in the Royal Australian Navy, retiring as a two-star Rear Admiral.

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Exporting Digital Authoritarianism, with Alina Polyakova Dec 16, 2019

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Digital authoritarianism is the use of digital technology by authoritarian regimes to monitor, manipulate and control both domestic and foreign populations. China and Russia are at the forefront, representing two distinct but related models. There are many dimensions to it, from the recent revelations China is developing facial recognition technology to sort people by ethnicity, to Russia’s attempts to create a sovereign Russian internet.
Digital authoritarianism is reshaping the power balance between democracies and illiberal states. What can democracies do to level the playing field, without sacrificing core democratic values?
My guest on this episode of Rules Based Audio, Dr Alina Polyakova, is the founding director of the Project on Global Democracy and Emerging Technology at the Brookings Institution. And she is the co-author of a recent paper, ‘Exporting Digital Authoritarianism’, published by Brookings.
She argues that the west must start conceiving of the democratic digital domain as an asset in this contest, one that must be be protected and defended – but also one that’s more resilient than we think.
Rules Based Audio is a half-hour, fortnightly podcast covering stories from the cracks and faultlines in the global order, hosted by Kelsey Munro and powered by the Lowy Institute. This is our last episode for 2019 and my last episode as host. Rules Based Audio will be back in 2020. Thanks for listening!

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Panel discussion: Taiwan’s 2020 Elections Dec 10, 2019

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The elections in Taiwan in January promise to be one of the region’s most consequential polls in recent decades. With Beijing increasingly vocal about using force to unify the island with China, voters face a choice between a president determined to resist Beijing and an opponent struggling to articulate an alternative. The polls on the self-governing island, which has a pivotal role in high-tech global value chains, are also taking place in the shadow of protests in Hong Kong and growing US–China tensions. In the lead-up, Beijing has been taking a leaf out of the Russian playbook by overtly and covertly influencing Taiwan’s local media and community groups.
The Lowy Institute hosted a panel discussion about Taiwan’s upcoming elections, the implications for cross-straits relations and Taiwan’s future.
Thomas J. Christensen is Professor of Public and International Affairs and Director of the China and the World Program at Columbia University and previously handled China and Taiwan in the US State Department.
Natasha Kassam is a Research Fellow in the Diplomacy and Public Opinion Program at the Lowy Institute and a former Australian diplomat in Beijing.
Dr Roger Lee Huang is a Lecturer at Macquarie University. His research includes the history of Taiwan–China relations and he has worked for Taiwan’s Democratic Progressive Party.
The event was chaired by Richard McGregor, Lowy Institute Senior Fellow and award-winning author of The Party: The Secret World of China’s Communist Rulers and the recent Lowy Institute Paper Xi Jinping: The Backlash.

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Renting influence: China in the Pacific, with Jonathan Pryke and Dan McGarry Dec 02, 2019

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Rules Based Audio takes a look at China's interests, influence and intentions in the Pacific.
Reports of a planned Chinese naval base in Vanuatu in 2018 helped focus policy makers’ attention on China’s strategic intentions and economic influence in the island nations of the south Pacific. But in many ways, the debate in Australia and the US lagged far behind the reality on the ground. These days the Chinese presence – from state owned enterprises, infrastructure projects, commercial ventures and a significant new wave of immigration – is, according to the director of the Lowy Institute’s Pacific Islands program Jonathan Pryke, everywhere in these tiny island nations. Jono talks us through the many dimensions of China in the Pacific.
But first, a case study: Vanuatu is reaping over $100 million a year from the sale of passports, mostly to Chinese nationals; while there has been a big step up in Chinese loans and direct investment. But when earlier this year, Vanuatu-based journalist Dan McGarry reported on the secret dawn arrest of six Chinese nationals – by local police in the presence of Chinese security officials – who were then deported without charge to China, he apparently crossed a line for the island nation’s government. Mr McGarry has been refused re-entry to Vanuatu. I spoke to Mr McGarry about the ways the authoritarian giant’s influence is playing out in the tiny democratic nation of 280,000.
Jonathan Pryke is the director of the Lowy Institute’s Pacific Islands program and Mr McGarry is the media director of the Vanuatu Daily Post.
Rules Based Audio is a half-hour, fortnightly podcast covering stories from the cracks and faultlines in the global order, hosted by Kelsey Munro and powered by the Lowy Institute.

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An address on China by Tony Abbott Nov 28, 2019

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Australia faces no more difficult international challenge than managing its relationship with the People’s Republic of China, our largest trading partner and a peer competitor of our great ally the United States.
Former prime minister Tony Abbott gave an address on China, followed by a Q&A session chaired by Dr Michael Fullilove, Executive Director of the Lowy Institute.
The Hon. Tony Abbott was the 28th Prime Minister of Australia, holding that office from 2013 to 2015. Before being elected prime minister, Mr Abbott served as the leader of the opposition, a minister in the Howard government, and the member for Warringah.

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Panel discussion: The disinformation age – can democracy survive social media? Nov 28, 2019

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Hyperpartisan and foreign-state sponsored disinformation targeted at voters through social media is undermining democracy and interfering with elections from the US to India, from Indonesia to Taiwan. Authoritarian adversaries, partisan domestic actors, and weak democratic governments are using the platforms and the extensive data they hold on individuals to manipulate voters and spread false narratives. The implications for the health of democracies everywhere are troubling. And with the US Presidential election looming in 2020, many argue that not enough is being done to halt the spread of deliberately false and misleading information. How can democracies fight back?
Kelsey Munro, host of the Lowy Institute's Rules Based Audio podcast, together with Katherine Mansted from the ANU’s National Security College and Harvard’s Belfer Center, and Lowy Institute Southeast Asia Project Director Ben Bland, had a thought-provoking discussion on democracy in the disinformation age.
Katherine Mansted is a Senior Adviser at the ANU National Security College and a Nonresident fellow at Harvard’s Belfer Center. Her research and policy analysis focuses on emerging technologies, cybersecurity, and international relations. Her publications cover information warfare, cyber-enabled foreign interference, and internet privacy. Katherine previously practiced law and served as a ministerial adviser in the Australian government.
Ben Bland is the director of the Southeast Asia project at the Lowy Institute. Ben’s personal research interests span politics, economics, and diplomacy across Southeast Asia, with a particular focus on Indonesia, Malaysia, and Vietnam, as well as China’s growing role in the region. Ben is an award-winning former foreign correspondent for the Financial Times, with postings in Hanoi, Hong Kong, and Jakarta.

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Aus-PNG Network Melbourne Social Evening: Empowering girls and women in science and technology Nov 22, 2019

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The Lowy Institute hosted the Aus–PNG Network Melbourne social evening at the State Library of Victoria.
Opening remarks for the evening were delivered by Mr Bruce Davis, Australian High Commissioner to PNG.
Lowy Institute Research Fellow Shane McLeod chaired a panel discussion, 'PNG-Australia Education Links: Empowering girls and women in science and technology'.
The panel included:
Mary Mulcahy (AUS), Director, Education and Outreach for CSIRO
Edea Bouraga (PNG), Mechanical Engineer and current chair of Women in Engineering.
Sarah Chapman (AUS), Head of Science, Townsville State High School.
Nylah Torova (PNG), PNG student at Rockhampton Girls Grammar School.
Mr Sakias Tameo, PNG Deputy High Commissioner to Australia, gave closing remarks.
The Aus–PNG Network is a Lowy Institute project aimed at strengthening people-to-people links between Australia and Papua New Guinea. The Lowy Institute acknowledges the ongoing support of the Department of Foreign Affairs and Trade for the Aus–PNG Network.

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Rodger Shanahan on Typology of Terror – An analysis of Australia’s Islamic State jihadis Nov 21, 2019

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Since 2012 several hundred Australians have travelled to Syria and Iraq to undertake jihad with Islamic State, al-Qaeda or other radical Islamist groups. Dozens more supported them financially or in the planning of attacks. There are many preconceptions about the types of people in Australia attracted to jihad, but there has been little data publicly available on which to base these assumptions. For the first time, Lowy Institute Fellow Rodger Shanahan has collected and analysed data on 173 individuals known to have joined radical Islamist terrorist organisations or who have been charged with terrorism offences. This new analysis provides comprehensive information on the backgrounds of Australians who have undertaken jihad, which will enhance our understanding of the typologies and motivations of those who are likely to be attracted to similar messaging in the future.
Rodger Shanahan had a conversation with Lowy Institute Research Fellow Kelsey Munro to discuss this unique analysis of the Australian terrorist scene.

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