LessWrong (Curated & Popular)

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“Optimistic Assumptions, Longterm Planning, and ‘Cope’” by Raemon Jul 19, 2024

Show notes

Eliezer Yudkowsky periodically complains about people coming up with questionable plans with questionable assumptions to deal with AI, and then either:

Saying "well, if this assumption doesn't hold, we're doomed, so we might as well assume it's true."
Worse: coming up with cope-y reasons to assume that the assumption isn't even questionable at all. It's just a pretty reasonable worldview.

Sometimes the questionable plan is "an alignment scheme, which Eliezer thinks avoids the hard part of the problem." Sometimes it's a sketchy reckless plan that's probably going to blow up and make things worse.
Some people complain about Eliezer being a doomy Negative Nancy who's overly pessimistic.
I had an interesting experience a few months ago when I ran some beta-tests of my Planmaking and Surprise Anticipation workshop, that I think are illustrative.
i. Slipping into a more Convenient World
I have an exercise where I give people [...]
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Outline:
(00:59) i. Slipping into a more Convenient World
(04:26) ii. Finding traction in the wrong direction.
(06:47) Takeaways
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First published:
July 17th, 2024
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8ZR3xsWb6TdvmL8kx/optimistic-assumptions-longterm-planning-and-cope
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

undefined — **“Superbabies: Putting The Pieces Together” by sarahconstantin** Jul 15, 2024
Show notes

This post was inspired by some talks at the recent LessOnline conference including one by LessWrong user “Gene Smith”.
Let's say you want to have a “designer baby”. Genetically extraordinary in some way — super athletic, super beautiful, whatever.
6’5”, blue eyes, with a trust fund.
Ethics aside[1], what would be necessary to actually do this?
Fundamentally, any kind of “superbaby” or “designer baby” project depends on two steps:
1.) figure out what genes you ideally want;
2.) create an embryo with those genes.
It's already standard to do a very simple version of this two-step process. In the typical course of in-vitro fertilization (IVF), embryos are usually screened for chromosomal abnormalities that would cause disabilities like Down Syndrome, and only the “healthy” embryos are implanted.
But most (partially) heritable traits and disease risks are not as easy to predict.
**Polygenic Scores**
If what you care about is [...]
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**Outline:**
(01:16) Polygenic Scores
(03:35) Massively Multiplexed, Body-Wide Gene Editing? Not So Much, Yet.
(06:45) Embryo Selection
(07:52) “Iterated Embryo Selection”?
(09:33) Iterated Meiosis?
(13:29) Generating Naive Pluripotent Cells
(16:50) What's Missing?
The original text contained 5 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.
The original text contained 2 images which were described by AI.
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First published:
July 11th, 2024
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/2uJsiQqHTjePTRqi4/superbabies-putting-the-pieces-together
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.
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**Images from the article:**
*Apple Podcasts and Spotify do not show images in the episode description. Try Pocket Casts, or another podcast app.*

“Poker is a bad game for teaching epistemics. Figgie is a better one.” by rossry Jul 12, 2024

Show notes

This is a link post.Editor's note: Somewhat after I posted this on my own blog, Max Chiswick cornered me at LessOnline / Manifest and gave me a whole new perspective on this topic. I now believe that there is a way to use poker to sharpen epistemics that works dramatically better than anything I had been considering. I hope to write it up—together with Max—when I have time. Anyway, I'm still happy to keep this post around as a record of my first thoughts on the matter, and because it's better than nothing in the time before Max and I get around to writing up our joint second thoughts.
As an epilogue to this story, Max and I are now running a beta test for a course on making AIs to play poker and other games. The course will a synthesis of our respective theories of pedagogy re [...]
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First published:
July 8th, 2024
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/PypgeCxFHLzmBENK4/poker-is-a-bad-game-for-teaching-epistemics-figgie-is-a
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“Reliable Sources: The Story of David Gerard” by TracingWoodgrains Jul 11, 2024

Show notes

This is a linkpost for https://www.tracingwoodgrains.com/p/reliable-sources-how-wikipedia-admin, posted in full here given its relevance to this community. Gerard has been one of the longest-standing malicious critics of the rationalist and EA communities and has done remarkable amounts of work to shape their public images behind the scenes.
Note: I am closer to this story than to many of my others. As always, I write aiming to provide a thorough and honest picture, but this should be read as the view of a close onlooker who has known about much within this story for years and has strong opinions about the matter, not a disinterested observer coming across something foreign and new. If you’re curious about the backstory, I encourage you to read my companion article after this one.
Introduction: Reliable Sources
Wikipedia administrator David Gerard cares a great deal about Reliable Sources. For the past half-decade, he has torn [...]
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Outline:
(00:55) Introduction: Reliable Sources
(06:01) Gerard's Standards for Reliable Sources
(13:53) Who Is David Gerard?
(16:53) The Early Romantic Years
(28:00) Gerard's fling with LessWrong in the twilight of the old internet
(37:51) The bitter end
(45:26) The Vindictive Ex
(50:01) LessWrong
(01:04:17) Effective Altruism
(01:07:55) Scott Alexander
(01:16:22) Conclusion
(01:21:58) Companion article: A Young Mormon Discovers Online Rationality
The original text contained 24 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.
The original text contained 12 images which were described by AI.
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First published:
July 10th, 2024
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/3XNinGkqrHn93dwhY/reliable-sources-the-story-of-david-gerard
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“When is a mind me?” by Rob Bensinger Jul 08, 2024

Show notes

xlr8harder writes:
In general I don’t think an uploaded mind is you, but rather a copy. But one thought experiment makes me question this. A Ship of Theseus concept where individual neurons are replaced one at a time with a nanotechnological functional equivalent.
Are you still you?
Presumably the question xlr8harder cares about here isn't semantic question of how linguistic communities use the word "you", or predictions about how whole-brain emulation tech might change the way we use pronouns.
Rather, I assume xlr8harder cares about more substantive questions like:

If I expect to be uploaded tomorrow, should I care about the upload in the same ways (and to the same degree) that I care about my future biological self?
Should I anticipate experiencing what my upload experiences?
If the scanning and uploading process requires destroying my biological brain, should I say yes to the procedure?

My answers:

The original text contained 1 footnote which was omitted from this narration.
The original text contained 7 images which were described by AI.
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First published:
April 17th, 2024
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/zPM5r3RjossttDrpw/when-is-a-mind-me
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“80,000 hours should remove OpenAI from the Job Board (and similar orgs should do similarly)” by Raemon Jul 03, 2024

Show notes

I haven't shared this post with other relevant parties – my experience has been that private discussion of this sort of thing is more paralyzing than helpful. I might change my mind in the resulting discussion, but, I prefer that discussion to be public.
I think 80,000 hours should remove OpenAI from its job board, and similar EA job placement services should do the same.
(I personally believe 80k shouldn't advertise Anthropic jobs either, but I think the case for that is somewhat less clear)
I think OpenAI has demonstrated a level of manipulativeness, recklessness, and failure to prioritize meaningful existential safety work, that makes me think EA orgs should not be going out of their way to give them free resources. (It might make sense for some individuals to work there, but this shouldn't be a thing 80k or other orgs are systematically funneling talent into)
There [...]
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First published:
July 3rd, 2024
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/8qCwuE8GjrYPSqbri/80-000-hours-should-remove-openai-from-the-job-board-and
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

[Linkpost] “introduction to cancer vaccines” by bhauth Jul 02, 2024

Show notes

This is a linkpost for https://www.bhauth.com/blog/biology/cancer%20vaccines.html cancer neoantigens
For cells to become cancerous, they must have mutations that cause uncontrolled replication and mutations that prevent that uncontrolled replication from causing apoptosis. Because cancer requires several mutations, it often begins with damage to mutation-preventing mechanisms. As such, cancers often have many mutations not required for their growth, which often cause changes to structure of some surface proteins.
The modified surface proteins of cancer cells are called "neoantigens". An approach to cancer treatment that's currently being researched is to identify some specific neoantigens of a patient's cancer, and create a personalized vaccine to cause their immune system to recognize them. Such vaccines would use either mRNA or synthetic long peptides. The steps required are as follows:

The cancer must develop neoantigens that are sufficiently distinct from human surface proteins and consistent across the cancer.
Cancer cells must [...]

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First published:
May 5th, 2024
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/xgrvmaLFvkFr4hKjz/introduction-to-cancer-vaccines
Linkpost URL:
https://www.bhauth.com/blog/biology/cancer vaccines.html
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“Priors and Prejudice” by MathiasKB Jul 02, 2024

Show notes

I
Imagine an alternate version of the Effective Altruism movement, whose early influences came from socialist intellectual communities such as the Fabian Society, as opposed to the rationalist diaspora. Let's name this hypothetical movement the Effective Samaritans.
Like the EA movement of today, they believe in doing as much good as possible, whatever this means. They began by evaluating existing charities, reading every RCT to find the very best ways of helping.
But many effective samaritans were starting to wonder. Is this randomista approach really the most prudent? After all, Scandinavia didn’t become wealthy and equitable through marginal charity. Societal transformation comes from uprooting oppressive power structures.
The Scandinavian societal model which lifted the working class, brought weekends, universal suffrage, maternity leave, education, and universal healthcare can be traced back all the way to 1870's where the union and social democratic movements got their start.
In many developing countries [...]
The original text contained 2 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.
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First published:
April 22nd, 2024
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/sKKxuqca9uhpFSvgq/priors-and-prejudice
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“My experience using financial commitments to overcome akrasia” by William Howard Jul 02, 2024

Show notes

About a year ago I decided to try using one of those apps where you tie your goals to some kind of financial penalty. The specific one I tried is Forfeit, which I liked the look of because it's relatively simple, you set single tasks which you have to verify you have completed with a photo.
I’m generally pretty sceptical of productivity systems, tools for thought, mindset shifts, life hacks and so on. But this one I have found to be really shockingly effective, it has been about the biggest positive change to my life that I can remember. I feel like the category of things which benefit from careful planning and execution over time has completely opened up to me, whereas previously things like this would be largely down to the luck of being in the right mood for long enough.
It's too soon to tell whether [...]
The original text contained 7 footnotes which were omitted from this narration.
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First published:
April 15th, 2024
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/DRrAMiekmqwDjnzS5/my-experience-using-financial-commitments-to-overcome
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

“The Incredible Fentanyl-Detecting Machine” by sarahconstantin Jul 01, 2024

Show notes

An NII machine in Nogales, AZ. (Image source)There's bound to be a lot of discussion of the Biden-Trump presidential debates last night, but I want to skip all the political prognostication and talk about the real issue: fentanyl-detecting machines.
Joe Biden says:
And I wanted to make sure we use the machinery that can detect fentanyl, these big machines that roll over everything that comes across the border, and it costs a lot of money. That was part of this deal we put together, this bipartisan deal.
More fentanyl machines, were able to detect drugs, more numbers of agents, more numbers of all the people at the border. And when we had that deal done, he went – he called his Republican colleagues said don’t do it. It's going to hurt me politically.
He never argued. It's not a good bill. It's a really good bill. We need [...]
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First published:
June 28th, 2024
Source:
https://www.lesswrong.com/posts/TzwMfRArgsNscHocX/the-incredible-fentanyl-detecting-machine
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Narrated by TYPE III AUDIO.

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