ITR Economics

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10-Year Treasury Yield Hits 5.2%: What It Means for Fed Policy | Fed Watch Sep 25, 2026

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This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker examines why the 10-year Treasury yield has reached 5.2%, its highest level since 2007, and what rising bond yields could mean for interest rates, borrowing costs, and financial markets. She also discusses hawkish Federal Reserve commentary, stronger economic data, and why persistent inflation may keep pressure on the Fed to raise rates. Could the bond market be sending the Fed a signal it cannot ignore?

AI, Data Centers, and Semiconductors Driving US Growth | TrendsTalk Sep 21, 2026

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This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain examines how AI investment, data center construction, and semiconductor production are driving US economic growth. With many legacy manufacturing markets remaining flat and additional weakness expected in 2027, where can businesses find opportunities to diversify and grow? Tune in for the data shaping the outlook. 📊 Trends Report Free Preview → https://hubs.la/Q03ybVV00

Fed Rate Hike: What Higher Interest Rates Mean for Business | Fed Watch Sep 18, 2026

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This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker explains why the Federal Reserve’s latest 25-basis-point rate hike could mark the beginning of a broader rate-raising cycle. With borrowing costs creating challenges for rate-sensitive businesses, Lauren examines persistent inflation, the Fed’s outlook, and the signals leaders should watch when planning for 2027 and beyond. Is your business prepared for interest rates to move higher?

TT 9.14.26 Audio Sep 14, 2026

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TT 9.14.26 Audio by ITR Economics

Will the Fed Raise Rates After August Inflation Data? | Fed Watch Sep 11, 2026

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This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Michael Feuz guest hosts to break down the latest August inflation numbers, shifting rate hike expectations, and what the Fed may do next. With businesses facing uncertainty around borrowing costs, consumer strength, and inflation pressure from AI CapEx, energy prices, tariffs, and money supply growth, Michael explains why a rate hike may not solve the real problem. Watch for a timely look at monetary policy, the bond market, and what leaders should monitor heading into the next Fed decision. What do you think the Fed should do next?

September Fed Rate Hike? What Kevin Warsh’s Speech Means for Business | Fed Watch Sep 04, 2026

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This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Connor Lokar examines why expectations for a September Federal Reserve rate hike shifted following Chair Kevin Warsh’s Jackson Hole speech. For business leaders navigating uncertain borrowing costs and weakness in housing and agriculture, Connor breaks down the Fed’s 2 percent inflation target, elevated PCE inflation, and the difference between headline inflation and underlying price pressures. One phrase in the speech may leave the Fed more room than markets expect. Do you think the Fed will raise rates in September?

2026 Inflation Outlook: Rising Input Costs Squeeze Margins | TrendsTalk Aug 31, 2026

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2026 Inflation Outlook: Rising Input Costs Squeeze Margins | TrendsTalk by ITR Economics

Will Cooler PCE Inflation Stop a September Rate Hike? | Fed Watch Aug 28, 2026

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This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Connor Lokar examines what cooler PCE inflation could mean for the Federal Reserve’s September interest rate decision. He also explores July’s sharp home sales decline and why elevated Treasury yields and mortgage rates continue to squeeze rate-sensitive businesses. Which inflation measure should Fed policymakers trust when deciding whether to hold or hike rates? Share your perspective in the comments.

2027 Commercial Construction Outlook: Growth Across the Board | TrendsTalk Aug 24, 2026

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This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain explains why the outlook for commercial construction is improving as we move toward 2027. While many sectors remain below year-ago levels, leading indicators are strengthening, and ITR Economics expects growth across every commercial construction vertical covered in the Trends Report next year. Which sectors could see the strongest growth, and what should contractors, suppliers, and businesses serving the industry be planning for now?

Treasury Steps Into the Bond Market as Housing Struggles | Fed Watch Aug 21, 2026

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This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Connor Lokar examines the Treasury’s move to increase buybacks of long-term US bonds as rising yields and mortgage rates put renewed pressure on the housing market. With single-family housing starts posting a historically sharp June-to-July decline and mortgage rates moving closer to 7%, businesses are facing another reminder of how higher borrowing costs can ripple through the economy. Connor breaks down what the Treasury’s latest intervention could signal, whether its goals are beginning to diverge from the Fed’s, and why the US crossing $40 trillion in national debt deserves attention. Is this simply a liquidity operation, or an early sign of friction between the Treasury and the Federal Reserve?

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