ITR Economics

Latest Episodes:

September Jobs Report Reveals Strength Amid Shutdown Delays | Fed Watch Nov 21, 2025

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November 21, 2025 This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down the long-delayed September employment report and explains what the unexpected strength means for the labor market and the Fed’s December meeting. Discover where job losses are emerging, why certain sector gains matter for consumer momentum, and how unusual data collection conditions during the government shutdown affected the report’s quality.

US Housing Market Nears Bottom: Growth Ahead for 2026 and 2027 | TrendsTalk Nov 17, 2025

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This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain shares an update on the US Single-Unit Housing market. While affordability remains a challenge, ITR Economics forecasts the housing market is approaching its low point in 2025, followed by growth in 2026 and 2027. Taylor breaks down where affordability is improving, which states are most affected, and why the data points to better years ahead for developers and suppliers. Are you ready for the next housing cycle?

Are We Overestimating AI’s Disruption? What the Fed Should Really Be Watching | Fed Watch Nov 14, 2025

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November 14, 2025 In this week’s episode of Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down how the end of the government shutdown restores critical economic data that the Federal Reserve needs before its December meeting. With mixed signals from policymakers and uncertainty around future rate cuts, how will this renewed data clarity shape monetary policy? Lauren also tackles one of today’s biggest economic questions: Is AI transforming the labor market as much as we think? She highlights new insights from a Yale study showing that while AI boosts productivity, its impact remains gradual — not revolutionary.

Economic Uncertainty and What It Means for 2026 Growth | TrendsTalk Nov 10, 2025

Show notes

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist Taylor St. Germain provides an update on the US Economic Policy Uncertainty Index. After record highs earlier this year, uncertainty has been cut in half, setting the stage for accelerating growth in both CAPEX and Industrial Production. Taylor explains why this shift supports ITR Economics’ positive outlook through 2026 and what it means for business leaders preparing for expansion. Are you ready to keep pace with growth?

Quantitative Tightening and Why the Fed’s Latest Move Matters for You | Fed Watch Nov 07, 2025

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November 7, 2025 This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker discusses the Fed’s latest policy shift, ending quantitative tightening, and what it means for future rate cuts. She also discusses the ongoing government shutdown, now the longest in U.S. history, and its uneven impact on consumers and GDP. Plus, Lauren examines the Supreme Court’s review of Trump-era tariffs and what to watch as pricing effects unfold over time.

The Safest States for Business Growth During the 2030s Depression | TrendsTalk Nov 03, 2025

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This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist Taylor St. Germain revisits ITR Economics’ long-standing forecast of a 2030s depression and outlines how businesses can prepare today. Taylor reveals which U.S. states are best positioned for success and which face greater risk based on ten key economic and demographic factors. Learn where your organization may find opportunity as the next decade approaches.

Slight Slack in the Labor Market Before Tightening Returns | TrendsTalk Oct 27, 2025

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This week on TrendsTalk, Taylor St. Germain from ITR Economics breaks down the current labor market conditions and what they mean for your business strategy. With just over one unemployed person per job opening, there’s slight slack in the market, but not for long. Find out why the next 6 to 9 months may be your best window for hiring before tightening conditions and wage pressures hit hard. Taylor also covers workforce demographics, rising labor costs, and how AI and automation can help offset the people problem.

Rising Energy Costs Could Threaten Business Growth | TrendsTalk Oct 20, 2025

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This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist Taylor St. Germain examines how soaring data center construction is fueling record-high electricity prices and what that means for your business. With U.S. electric power costs hitting new highs, companies face growing challenges tied to infrastructure strain and future energy policy changes.

How 2025 Tariffs Are Reshaping Global Investment Oct 13, 2025

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This week on TrendsTalk, Taylor St. Germain breaks down where US exports and imports are growing, which countries are losing ground, and why the EU has emerged as the clear trade “winner” in 2025. Despite these changes, the US remains the top destination for foreign direct investment, a key driver for onshoring, reshoring, and long-term industrial growth. What will this mean for manufacturers and business leaders heading into 2026?

Mild Industrial Growth Ahead with Sideways Indicators Oct 06, 2025

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This week on TrendsTalk, Taylor St. Germain from ITR Economics unpacks the latest leading indicators for the US Industrial Economy. While growth is still on the horizon for 2026, several key indicators are moving sideways, signaling a milder rise than previous recovery cycles. What does this mean for capacity planning and business strategy? Tune in to learn why understanding not just the direction but also the amplitude of growth is critical for accurate forecasting and planning.

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