ITR Economics

Latest Episodes:

Retail Sales Surprise and Fed Leadership Uncertainty | Fed Watch Apr 24, 2026

Show notes

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down the latest retail sales data and what it reveals about consumer resilience despite rising energy costs. With gasoline prices surging, many businesses are questioning whether demand can hold and how long margin pressure may persist. Lauren also examines growing political tensions surrounding the Federal Reserve, including leadership transition uncertainty and what it could mean for future interest rate direction. As confirmation battles unfold, businesses are left navigating an increasingly unclear policy environment. 🔔 UPDATE: Since taping this episode, the Justice Department has dropped its criminal probe into Chair Jerome Powell. US Attorney Jeanine Pirro announced that the Fed’s inspector general will instead review cost overruns tied to recent building renovations. This development removes a key hurdle in Kevin Warsh’s confirmation process, as discussed in this episode. If you are planning for the second half of the year, understanding the balance between pricing pressure and consumer demand is critical. Don’t miss our upcoming webinar on state-by-state opportunities and US Consumer trends. Save your seat today → https://itrondemand.com/store/product/winning-states-2030s

Strong Revenue Growth May Not Mean Strong Profits | TrendsTalk Apr 20, 2026

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This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain is joined by fellow Economist Tara Bayke to break down the growing risk of “profitless prosperity.” As the economy expands through 2026 and beyond, many businesses may see rising revenues but shrinking margins due to persistent cost pressures. From surging material and energy costs to labor challenges and AI investment, where should leaders focus to protect profitability? And what role will the Federal Reserve play as inflation pressures continue? Tune in for a timely discussion on how to prepare for growth while safeguarding your bottom line. Are you ready to grow profitably in the years ahead? Trends Report Free Preview → https://hubs.la/Q03ybVV00 Trends Report Free Trial → https://itrondemand.com/store/product/trendsreport-free-trial

Fed Leadership Uncertainty and Market Signals: What Powell’s Future Means for Business | Fed Watch Apr 17, 2026

Show notes

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down the growing uncertainty surrounding Federal Reserve leadership and what it could mean for market stability. With questions around Chair Powell’s term, potential legal challenges, and political pressure, businesses are left wondering how much confidence they can place in the Fed’s independence. Lauren also highlights a key economic indicator tied to business-to-business investment that is showing stronger-than-expected momentum. What does this signal about the direction of the economy and future demand? If you are trying to plan ahead in an environment shaped by both political uncertainty and shifting economic signals, this episode offers critical insights without the noise. Will markets continue to trust the Fed if political pressure intensifies?

AI Impact on White-Collar vs Blue-Collar Jobs | TrendsTalk Apr 13, 2026

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This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down how AI is reshaping the labor market and why white-collar industries are seeing a different impact than blue-collar sectors. While many businesses are investing heavily in AI, layoffs and workforce shifts are not happening evenly across the economy. What does this mean for hiring, wages, and long-term workforce strategy? And why are some industries seeing more stability despite ongoing labor shortages? Trends Report Free Preview → https://hubs.la/Q03ybVV00 Trends Report Free Trial → https://itrondemand.com/store/product/trendsreport-free-trial

Rising Inflation and Fed Uncertainty: What This Week’s Data Means for Business | Fed Watch Apr 10, 2026

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This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker breaks down a major data week, including a downward revision to fourth quarter GDP and a sharp rise in inflation driven by geopolitical tensions. With CPI climbing and energy prices surging unevenly across markets, business leaders are facing a key challenge: how to manage rising costs without eroding demand. Lauren explores what these inflation pressures mean for pricing strategies, consumer behavior, and the broader economic outlook. While headlines point to volatility, the bigger question remains: will the Fed hold steady, cut rates, or be forced to act more aggressively? Watch now for key insights that can help you navigate uncertainty and make more informed decisions in the months ahead.

Aerospace & Defense Are Surging While Manufacturing Slows | TrendsTalk Apr 06, 2026

Show notes

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Economist Taylor St. Germain breaks down why aerospace and defense are emerging as key growth opportunities while other manufacturing sectors face ongoing challenges. With civilian aircraft production forecasted to grow at a leading pace and defense orders accelerating into 2027, where should businesses be focusing their time and investment? If your industry is facing slowing demand or uneven recovery, this episode highlights where momentum is building and how to think strategically about diversification. Trends Report Free Preview → https://hubs.la/Q03ybVV00

Oil Price Shock: Will It Push the Fed to Cut or Hike Rates? | Fed Watch Apr 03, 2026

Show notes

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Lauren Saidel-Baker examines how rising oil prices are complicating the Federal Reserve’s next move and what it means for businesses trying to plan in an uncertain environment. As energy costs climb, companies face margin pressure while consumers feel the strain at the pump. But does this inflationary shock justify higher interest rates, or could it slow growth enough to force rate cuts? Lauren also breaks down the latest retail sales data, revealing why strong headlines may be masking underlying weakness in consumer demand and what that signals for the months ahead. If you are navigating pricing pressure, demand uncertainty, or planning for the second half of 2026, this episode highlights the key signals you need to watch. Will rising costs force a shift in Fed policy, or will the economy absorb the shock?

AI Investment Is Strong But Adoption Is Uneven | TrendsTalk Mar 30, 2026

Show notes

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist and Speaker Taylor St. Germain breaks down the surge in AI investment, now exceeding $560 billion, and what it really means for businesses navigating rising labor costs and workforce shortages. While some industries are rapidly adopting AI, others are falling behind. What does this gap mean for your strategy? Discover where AI is gaining traction, why smaller firms are lagging, and why AI may not be the solution many expect for labor challenges in key sectors. Check out Brian and Connor's webinar presentation → https://itrondemand.com/store/product/profitless-prosperity

Will the Fed Hold Rates Higher for Longer? What Rising Producer Prices Signal | Fed Watch Mar 27, 2026

Show notes

This week on Fed Watch, ITR Economist and Speaker Brian Beaulieu examines why rising producer prices and ongoing global uncertainty may keep the Federal Reserve from cutting interest rates in 2026. With inflation pressures tied to oil and commodities still building, many businesses are struggling to separate headlines from reality. Brian breaks down what the data actually shows, why the Fed may stay cautious, and how shifting expectations could impact your planning strategy. He also shares insight into bond market stress, employment trends, and what companies should be doing now to protect margins before inflation accelerates again. If you are trying to make informed decisions in an uncertain environment, this episode will help you focus on what truly matters and avoid reacting to misleading signals. Are you planning based on headlines, or on the data that actually drives your business?

Manufacturing Rebounds, But Rising Uncertainty Threatens 2026 Growth | TrendsTalk Mar 23, 2026

Show notes

This week on TrendsTalk, ITR Economist Taylor St. Germain breaks down encouraging signs in manufacturing and capital expenditure growth, offering a much-needed positive outlook after a prolonged downturn. But with economic uncertainty beginning to rise again, how confident should businesses be in their 2026 plans? Learn what the latest data is signaling, where growth is coming from, and what risks could impact your strategy moving forward.

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