Grinding The Variance (A Davis Mattek Fantasy Football Pod)

Latest Episodes:

Reebs Conference Championship Bets Jan 23, 2026

Show notes

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Timestamps:
00:00 Conference Championship NFL Sports Betting Introductions
08:41 Game 1 Preview: Broncos vs Patriots Opening Line & Market Context
09:06 Bo Nix Injury Impact: How Much Is the QB Worth to the Spread?
12:23 Sean Payton Tendencies Without His Starting QB
16:26 Denver Pass Rush vs Patriots Protection: The Deciding Mismatch
19:12 Patriots Run Defense vs Denver Run Game
22:31 Best Bet Lean: Broncos vs Patriots
23:40 Game 2 Preview: Seahawks vs Rams Opening Line & Setup
24:09 Stafford vs Darnold: Quarterback Volatility & Range of Outcomes
34:05 Best Bet Lean: Seahawks vs Rams
36:41 How We Build a Championship Weekend Betting Card
37:30 Profit Boost SGP Build Walkthrough
42:01 Popular Tab Exploits + Prop Market Leverage
47:27 Final Thoughts & Closing

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Playoff Best Ball + Coaching Carousel Jan 19, 2026

Show notes

Timestamps:
00:00 Playoff Best Ball Bag Check Introduction
2:30 How many live teams DO you have left
19:00 Around The Industry Advance Rate
28:00 The Cooks Non-Catch
38:00 Drake Maye has some post-season learning to do
44:00 The Rams Switch Up
48:10 Who is going to coach what team
53:00 Titans
55:45 Charbs Knee Surgery
59:00 Kevin Stefanski
1:01:30 Does it even matter who coaches the Steelers for fantasy football?
1:05:00 Cleveland Browns
1:17:00 Kenneth Walker in 2026 will be the RB____
1:30:00 CFB Final Pick Em https://play.underdogfantasy.com/es-syGYOYE7PE

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Thinking About DFS (Divisional Round) Jan 15, 2026

Show notes

Timestamps
2:02 Bills @ Broncos begins (line, total, macro view)
4:56 How Bills attack Denver (12 personnel, run vs elite pass D)
8:16 Broncos offense vs Bills run D: RJ Harvey usage + why he’s chalk
12:03 49ers @ Seahawks begins (Kittle out, Trent Williams note, Purdy vs SEA)
16:17 McCaffrey vs JSN: “if you can only pick one” debate starts
21:39 Kenneth Walker vs Charbonnet split and leverage
23:53 Texans @ Patriots begins (low total, trench game, Stroud concerns)
27:29 DFS approach: “avoid this game” + RB darts (Stevenson/Henderson) + Texans WR value
30:11 Rams @ Bears begins (highest total, extreme cold)
34:20 Bears game script rant: slow starts, Ben “calls good plays” later
35:47 Bears pass-catchers: “Loveland regardless” + Burden/Moore hierarchy
38:00 DraftKings build starts
38:25 Caleb Williams as QB pick + Loveland stack
38:52 Kyron vs Corum: drive-for-drive split breakdown
41:09 Salary-saver construction: double TE (Tonjes) + late swap angles
43:14 Final lineup read + pivots (Burden swap, Bears D)

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PLAYOFF BEST BALL BAG CHECK Jan 12, 2026

Show notes

Timestamps:
1:15 Audio Fixed
4:00 Davis Mattek Advance Rate
14:00 Steelers Total Ownership
20:00 There is no way to tell how good your playoff best ball portfolio is right now
30:00 THe way to early wildcard is the msot insane contest on DraftKings
38:00 DraftKings Advance Check In
51:00 You want to advance as many low scoring teams as possible
1:04:00 Loveland vs Warren
1:10:0 Rams Super Teams
1:17:00 The Postseason Contests
1:21:00 MNF Underdog Pick Em https://play.underdogfantasy.com/es-6A3bbVbJoa

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Rich Hribar's Best Bets (Sponsored By OddsJam!) Jan 09, 2026

Show notes

Code DAVIS to sign up for OddsJam: https://oddsjam.cello.so/9ANwlkq8ugS

Timestamps:
00:00 Sports Betting Introduction
2:45 Carolina Panthers - Los Angeles Rams NFL Sports Betting Preview
11:45 Chicago Bears - Green Bay Packers NFL Sports Betting Preview
19:00 Buffalo Bills - Jacksonville Jaguars NFL Sports Betting Preview
29:00 Philadelphia Eagles - San Francisco 49ers NFL Sports Betting Preview
38:00 Los Angeles Chargers - New England Patriots NFL Sports Betting Preview
44:00 Pittsburgh Steelers - Houston Texans NFL Sports Betting Preview
52:00 Pick Recap
57:00

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JAXON SMITH NJIGBA IS THE MOST IMPORTANT PERSON IN THE WORLD Jan 08, 2026

Show notes

TImestamps:
00:00 Finally Getting Woke To JSN
14:50 The TExans have this great defense...but they do not score any fantasy points
35:00 Single Entry Playoff Best Ball Strategy
51:50 THE $100 SPY PLayoff Best Ball
1:10:00 Executing a good Seahawks playoff team

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PAT KERRANE SETS THE PERFECT PLAYOFF BRACKET Jan 06, 2026

Show notes

Timestamps:
00:00 Is it a mistake to be light on JSN?
11:00 The Ricky Pearsall Situation
17:00 Who are the bills best 5 WRs
30:20 If this Pats - Seahawks team wins, you have to split with Kerrane
47:00 Filling Out The Bracket

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PLAYOFF BEST BALL DRAFTS WITH THE BRACKET COMPLETE Jan 05, 2026

Show notes

Timestamps:
00:00 Can defense win Championships in the NFL now?
11:00 First Draft Begins Out Of The 1.02: Should we take CMC here?
18:40 Favorite Advance Rate Pieces
24:00 Are we really doing this with the Steelers?
29:00 A Rams Draft Begins At 1.01 (An All Advance Rate Team)
48:00 Recovering From A Draft That Did NOT Go Well Out Of The 1.5 (Absolute shipper with Allen/Cook)
1:09:10 Drafting Out Of The 1.3
1:27:00 I wish there was an option to just remove the Steelers
1:40:00 Maybe time to start to try and draft JSN? (Nope NVM)
1:58:00 We are trying another Josh Allen Team
2:12:00 A Giga Rams 1.01 Draft

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CASH GAME WEEK WITH PETER OVERZET Jan 05, 2026

Show notes

Timestamps:
00:00 Week 18 NFL DFS Cash Game Week Introduction
3:00 Trevor Lawrence As The Only Cash Game QB
7:00 Jaylen Wright Over Jaydon Blue
12:00 Chase and Puka Together???
14:00 Nate Nohling Lineup
23:50 Sammy Reid Cash Game Lineup
39:30 The Clean Sweats

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Week 18 NFL DFS + BONUS Playoff Best Ball Draft w/ Jakob Sanderson Jan 01, 2026

Show notes

Timestamps:
00:00 Week 18 NFL DFS Introduction
1:00 Houston Texans - Indianapolis Colts Week 18 NFL DFS Preview
6:45 Dallas Cowboys - New York Giants Week 18 NFL DFS Preview
14:00 Jacksonville Jaguars - Tennessee Titans Week 18 NFL DFS Preview
18:00 Cincinnati Bengals - Cleveland Browns Week 18 NFL DFS Preview
22:00 New Orleans Saints - Atlanta Falcons Week 18 NFL DFS Preview
26:00 Green Bay Packers - Minnesota Vikings Week 18 NFL DFS Preview
28:00 Chris Olave OUT For Week 18
31:40 Buffalo Bills - New York Jets Week 18 NFL DFS Preview
36:20 Los Angeles Rams - Arizona Cardinals Week 18 NFL DFS Preview
40:30 Philadelphia Eagles - Washington Commanders Week 18 NFL DFS Preview
45:00 Detroit Lions - Chicago Bears Week 18 NFL DFS Preview
48:55 New England Patriots - Miami Dolphins Week 18 NFL DFS Preview
52:00 Kansas City Chiefs - Las Vegas Raiders Week 18 NFL DFS Preview 54:40 Denver Broncos - Los Angeles Chargers Week 18 NFL DFS Preview
56:30 DraftKings lineup build + Gold Star Plays
1:01:00 BONUS Playoff Best Ball Draft

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Grinding The Variance (A Davis Mattek Fantasy Football Pod)

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